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CoronaVirus Impact on the Cruise Industry


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8 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

A private island will at least make a good place to quarantine in case of epidemic. 

No doctor or hospital on private island. But it does have a bar that can be turned into a liquid pharmacy for the infected.

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  • CCHelp changed the title to CoronaVirus Impact on the Cruise Industry

I don't know if a vaccine will really help.  We have a flu vaccine and in the US, less than 1/2 the population gets the usually free shot. And, tens of thousands still die annually of the flu in the USA.

 

Based on comments here, it seems people are more afraid of quarantine that morbidity and mortality. 

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20 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

That is short term panic. That has heppend before. In 2001 Royal Caribbean shares dropped from about $45 before 9/11 to  $9 a share in October 2001. ( I wish I had bought at $9) Cruise stocks tend to have wide swings. What we see now is nothing. Reading the forums it seems lots of CC members are still talking about booking cruises despite all this current  bad news,

 

One person's 'the sky is falling' crisis is another person's buying opportunity.

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23 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

Impact To Cruise Industry

 

In the space of just 1 month the Carnival (CCL) share price plummeted from £37 down to £31 (mid Jan to mid Feb)

 

In the past week it has now dropped down to £26

 

That's about a 30% drop in the share price

 

Royal Caribbean shares were approx. $135 on Jan 20th

 

Now they are about $96

 

Again just short of a 30% drop

 

I'd say that was significant impact to the industry and I don't think we're anywhere near the end of the impact at this stage.

 

RCL is closing today at about $77. (-43% from its 52 week high)

 

This virus thing is starting to get interesting! 

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4 hours ago, CruisingAlong4Now said:

 

Based on comments here, it seems people are more afraid of quarantine that morbidity and mortality. 

 

In many ways yes.  While dying is certainly worse than having my vacation ruined, the risk of having my vacation ruined over the virus than the risk of dying.  

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I am not ruling out the possibility of the cruise lines temporarily mothballing ships if the Med season becomes difficult due to port closures, getting staff (from unaffected areas to ships) and cancellations of customers due to the uncertainty.   One week ago, I wouldn’t have thought this possible. 

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I Have friends in New Jersey who travel via cruises very often. This year they decided to stay at home. They are afraid. They even had to cancel their anniversary tour due to this virus. In my opinion I would still go. The chances of getting sick is quite low IMHO

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What I meant to be implying in a previous post is that due to increased absences at work , the lull in performance due to fear of illness, hysteria, and the reported mortality rates would impact cruise and other commercial  activity  as it is already doing so. IMO, it is going to get worse. That was not to say that this condition would be permanent but still very taxing for many.  One of the really tough things to do is sort out the facts from the knee jerk conclusions and anecdotal predictions.

 

Edited by JMorris271
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On 2/25/2020 at 2:56 PM, pacruise804 said:

 

Based on those who have responded on Cruise Critic, there is a big concern with COVID-19 and cruising.  I'm not sure that is indicative of the industry as a whole though.

 

My husband and I have two cruises booked this year: Eastern Caribbean in May and Southern Caribbean in November.  We have no intention of canceling either, but did get insurance before COVID-19 was announced.  If we can't go we can't go, but I see no reason to cancel yet.  If we are blocked from ports it will be disappointing, but we've sailed before where we missed a port.  The biggest issue we would face is a quarantine upon return, but I suspect even that could be worked around since DH can work remotely and I am a homemaker and can arrange others to keep the 15 year old.  If the virus spreads enough that all cruises to the Caribbean are affected/canceled then obviously we won't be able to go.

 

 

This is pretty much where we are. I’ve got nine cruises scheduled over the next 18 months (not all separate journeys, I am counting all legs of the b2b cruises). If the airplanes fly me to the port and the ships sail, we will be onboard. If the cruises are rerouted, we will be onboard to someplace else. I’ll be looking for good deals and low cost upgrades as others choose to stay home. I agree with the earlier comment that the problem is not the virus per se but the draconian and futile attempts at control through extreme quarantine. 
 

I will be buying some RCCL stock next week...
 

Stan

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On 2/26/2020 at 10:49 AM, JMorris271 said:

business' reduce or for some stop production, transportation is curtailed, commerce grinds down and stocks crash,

In reading business news they point out that unlike '08 and others there are no outside agencies like the Fed and others who can tweak things externally. The US anyway had fallen way behind and it's going to be hard to catch up. Speaking of '08 we lost 40% of the value of our IRA. This week alone we lost 10%. We have already changed our spending habits.  (Anecdotally I'm returning a pair of pants that I don't really need and we're postponing having a big tree trimmed.) And if others do then there will be long term effects across many industries.

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15 hours ago, Roger88 said:

The chances of getting sick is quite low IMHO

 

I agree, but so what?
 

Chances of having a stressful vacation due to a quarantine, refused ports, last minute cancellation etc. is quite high.

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I am serious now, to me, it seems like the best time to purchase a cruise tour. Way less annoying people on board, lower prices. If you want just to sail on a cruise its the best time to do it. And again, you wont meet infected people on board due to all above reasons 

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4 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I am serious now, to me, it seems like the best time to purchase a cruise tour. Way less annoying people on board, lower prices. If you want just to sail on a cruise its the best time to do it. And again, you wont meet infected people on board due to all above reasons 


I don’t understand some of your reasoning. Why do you think you would not meet infected people on board? 

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5 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I am serious now, to me, it seems like the best time to purchase a cruise tour. Way less annoying people on board, lower prices. If you want just to sail on a cruise its the best time to do it. And again, you wont meet infected people on board due to all above reasons 

 

If all you interact with is people who have been cleared by the cruise line to be safe, yes risks while on board are likely to be fairly low. But all that changes the fist time the ship sends out a tour. As of that first foray on land the ship has lost control over what someone brought on board. With coronavirus popping up all over and clear proof of community spread, long term there is not a 100% safe option.

 

I fail to understand why people on board a ship are way less annoying. Than what? If your only land experience is excursions from really big ships that drop a ton of people into a small port town that can't manage that size of crowd, the people you find annoying are probably your fellow passengers who are also clogging the streets. Land-based touring, either with a provider or on your own, give a chance to experience.a new country without the stress of crowds. Or smaller ships.

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5 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I am serious now, to me, it seems like the best time to purchase a cruise tour. Way less annoying people on board, lower prices. If you want just to sail on a cruise its the best time to do it. And again, you wont meet infected people on board due to all above reasons 

 

I feel the same way. My cruise is next week. I can't imagine it would sail as full as it would without this scare. All in fear for what looks to be a variation of the flu that has no real connection to this cruise.

 

If that means slightly shorter lines, and more seat choices, I'll take it

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As many cruise lines have been nickel and diming its customers to the extreme,  is it not time to nickel and dime them?, lets see how they like it.

Future customers should get on the phone and demand free upgrades, wifi, obc, shore excursions and more. You wont get them all but you might get something, that's worth you not cancelling, and its worth it to them, keeping you. Its been a sellers market in favour of the cruise lines for years, the tables have now turned full circle, now its a buyers market in favour of the customer. Today customer is king, it wont last forever, but whilst it does, you should be doing everything to make sure you get as much out of purchasing a cruise ticket that benefits you, and not the cruise line.

 

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18 hours ago, GottaKnowWhen said:

This is pretty much where we are. I’ve got nine cruises scheduled over the next 18 months (not all separate journeys, I am counting all legs of the b2b cruises). If the airplanes fly me to the port and the ships sail, we will be onboard. If the cruises are rerouted, we will be onboard to someplace else. I’ll be looking for good deals and low cost upgrades as others choose to stay home. I agree with the earlier comment that the problem is not the virus per se but the draconian and futile attempts at control through extreme quarantine. 
 

I will be buying some RCCL stock next week...
 

Stan

 

 

UNtil you have walked a mile in others' shoes, please do not be critical of their choices, feelings and reactions to changing circumstances. Until you  live under their (not   much possibility to change)   daily  world, you cannot  know  how you would view or react to same circumstance.   Because  my world used to be very different, I KNOW  I now view and react very differently.

 

There is a lot of truth to the old addage ....    "  a  mile in my shoes'.

   Many of us have perspectives that   change as our  lives change.  Most adapt as well as practical for them.

 

 

My point is to not gauge others' reactions by your personal circumstance.   We all have a different story.

 

 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Maybe a poor choice of words, but both are viruses with similar symptoms


If you read the link you posted somewhere the symptoms are different, only some are similar. I understand where you are coming from. If my cruise was next week it would be difficult not to go. I did four cruises last year and already one this year. By luck I have none booked now,  I had been cruise shopping. I have paused that since I can wait and see what happens. Last year two of the cruises were last minute, one was literally booked 8 days out last June. I am in a position where I can book last minute. Your situation having a booked cruise a week away is different.

Edited by Charles4515
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30 minutes ago, sail7seas said:

 

 

UNtil you have walked a mile in others' shoes, please do not be critical of their choices, feelings and reactions to changing circumstances. Until you  live under their (not   much possibility to change)   daily  world, you cannot  know  how you would view or react to same circumstance.   Because  my world used to be very different, I KNOW  I now view and react very differently.

 

There is a lot of truth to the old addage ....    "  a  mile in my shoes'.

   Many of us have perspectives that   change as our  lives change.  Most adapt as well as practical for them.

 

 

My point is to not gauge others' reactions by your personal circumstance.   We all have a different story.

 

 

 

 

 

I am not sure why you quote my post to make this comment. I said nothing that was in any way judgmental of others or their choices. I merely presented my own position, and I am not sure why you are judging that? 

 

I had a long phone call yesterday with the couple who were going to share with us an expensive private excursion on one of our upcoming trips. They are canceling their cruise and of course canceling their share of our excursion. I regret seeing them go, I think it would have been fun, but I totally understand why others might make such a choice and I am very grateful to them for letting me know sooner rather than later.

 

Stan

 

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On 2/27/2020 at 4:13 PM, DirtyDawg said:

 

RCL is closing today at about $77. (-43% from its 52 week high)

 

This virus thing is starting to get interesting! 

For the future yes. But for today???:? It will be sickening for someone that needs any money and has to sell now. OUCH!

Then Cap. gains will be looming once the price returns to normal. Double OUCH!

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1 hour ago, JMorris271 said:

For the future yes. But for today???:? It will be sickening for someone that needs any money and has to sell now. OUCH!

Then Cap. gains will be looming once the price returns to normal. Double OUCH!

 

I bought some the other day but it is in my tax free account so no Cap. Gains (hopefully)  OUCH. 😀

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