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Hlitner

CoronaVirus Impact on the Cruise Industry

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

This is every bit as obnoxious as the people who insist on talking about politics in the MDR.

 

 I hesitated to respond on that one, but also feel it is important when someone may be trying to move forward in this situation with unrealistically rosy assumptions. 

 

That covered, in fact what I suggested about other countries blocking US citizens is already on the burner. By another 24 hours from now Israel will probably initiate a mandatory 14 day quarantine for US citizens arriving from certain locations. It would be over Netanyahu's objections, but I would expect the Health Ministry to win the day on this one. Even if they look at it state by state as indicated, with the spread that is happening here it will eventually probably include most travelers from the US. One link here, there are others. https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-considers-placing-Americans-under-coronavirus-quarantine-620058

 

We in the US are not being realistic. Other countries looking at our management of coronavirus could easily decide that our citizens are as much of a risk as those from other countries. The virus spread is running ahead of efforts to contain it here as elsewhere. There is no reason for anyone looking at the US right now to assume that our citizens aren't as easily carriers as those from other hot spots around the world.

 

You can argue ad nauseum about why this is the case. But it is.

Edited by sayanne

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I’m not saying as I’ve mentioned these observations to F&B 
Let me guess.
it's an Italian ship with extremely low prices, right?

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55 minutes ago, sayanne said:

 

 There is no reason for anyone looking at the US right now to assume that our citizens aren't as easily carriers as those from other hot spots around the world.

 

We may know in the next few weeks.  If I heard Fauci ( who seems like a straight shooter) correctly just now on Meet the Press, they expect to have 7 million test kits available by the end of next week.  What struck me as important...he seemed to indicate testing will not only be doctor ordered of suspected cases but community sampling, to try an identify hidden pockets.  

 

The latter would be important to beat this back.  Unfortunately, this probably should have been done for the past couple weeks. 

 

 

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The community sampling isn't just to find hidden hot spots. Some very knowledgeable experts are concerned the actual truth is many people are contracting the virus but having such a mild case they are never tested thus never registering as having had it. I read they are concerned this could mean there might be as many as 80% of cases going unreported, though of course I don't think they actually expect it to be anywhere near that high.

 

There is just so much that really isn't known yet about this virus. By testing a random sampling they might get a better handle on things like precisely how contagious this thing is. I've read there is also concern it might be bi-phasic and we have no way to know whether it is seasonal like flu. With the information out of China being clearly misinformation a lot of information which might have answered some of these questions is being lost.

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It was not too long ago that I started this thread.  At the time I had a lot of concerns, but was also optimistic about the cruise industry even after having HAL cancel a thirty day cruise we were to take in April.  But recent developments, and a new posting on the State Department's web site have now caused me to adopt a pessimistic attitude vis-à-vis the cruise industry.  We now have the US Government advising older folks with underlying medical issues to not go on a cruise!  Hearing Dr. Anthony Fauci utter similar words on Meet the Press made me realize that we have now entered an unprecedented time with regard to both the cruise and travel industry.  I suspect that some of the smaller cruise and river cruise lines will have difficulty surviving COVID-19. The large cruise companies such as CCL and RCI will likely survive but are going to take a huge financial hit.  MSC should also be fine given its very deep pockets and position in the Container Ship industry.

 

What do you think?

 

Hank

P.S.  We still have 3 cruises booked for the remainder of the year and have our fingers crossed that all goes well.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

The large cruise companies such as CCL and RCI will likely survive but are going to take a huge financial hit.  MSC should also be fine given its very deep pockets and position in the Container Ship industry.

 

What do you think?

 

Hank

Agree. If it is short term, NCL could also make it. Viking and Crystal might be toast. 

 

But, then again during the financial crisis I moved all my cash assets within the “Ring of Fire”...so I tend to be more overly conservative. My coworkers called me “chicken little” back in 2006 about the impending housing meltdown, so I was right on one count.

 

edit...just had a moment to second think.  Bankers will know this is temporary situation, it will depend on how they think this will impact future cash flow compared to the debt load.  

Edited by buggins0402

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I think the most telling thing is NCL changing policies in that they are ONLY refunding deposits on cruises in the form of Future Cruise Credits.  Someone has calculated that the bad publicity and ill feelings of their customers is less important at the moment than retaining all that cash........

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10 minutes ago, FredT said:

I think the most telling thing is NCL changing policies in that they are ONLY refunding deposits on cruises in the form of Future Cruise Credits.  Someone has calculated that the bad publicity and ill feelings of their customers is less important at the moment than retaining all that cash........

Most of the competition is doing the same.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

We now have the US Government advising older folks with underlying medical issues to not go on a cruise!  Hearing Dr. Anthony Fauci utter similar words on Meet the Press made me realize that we have now entered an unprecedented time with regard to both the cruise and travel industry. 

I don't trust the current US government to make any pronouncements for other than political reasons (i.e. to appear proactive while in fact playing the numbers game). Dr Fauci, on the other hand, I give credit for contradicting the known to be vindictive POTUS in the same press conference. He is not playing any game, including CYA. 

 

We're still not cancelling our 13-day-out cruise, but watchfully waiting. We will not be surprised if a cruise of its nature is cancelled by the cruiseline or in fact, the ports (Hawaii and French Polynesia).

 

ETA: My husband and I are healthy although over 70 and 60 respectively. I am cancelling a cruise in June, that we would have shared with members of my family who have a laundry list of underlying medical problems and risk factors. Lest I appear cavalier of the respected Dr.Fauci's cautions.

Edited by crystalspin

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13 hours ago, Hlitner said:

It was not too long ago that I started this thread.  At the time I had a lot of concerns, but was also optimistic about the cruise industry even after having HAL cancel a thirty day cruise we were to take in April.  But recent developments, and a new posting on the State Department's web site have now caused me to adopt a pessimistic attitude vis-à-vis the cruise industry.  We now have the US Government advising older folks with underlying medical issues to not go on a cruise!  Hearing Dr. Anthony Fauci utter similar words on Meet the Press made me realize that we have now entered an unprecedented time with regard to both the cruise and travel industry.  I suspect that some of the smaller cruise and river cruise lines will have difficulty surviving COVID-19. The large cruise companies such as CCL and RCI will likely survive but are going to take a huge financial hit.  MSC should also be fine given its very deep pockets and position in the Container Ship industry.

 

What do you think?

 

Hank

P.S.  We still have 3 cruises booked for the remainder of the year and have our fingers crossed that all goes well.

And what about travel agencies, especially those that are basically cruise only? Do you think that many or at least some will go under? Are smaller independent agencies especially at risk?

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1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

And what about travel agencies, especially those that are basically cruise only? Do you think that many or at least some will go under? Are smaller independent agencies especially at risk?

There are many cruise only TA’s in my part of NY.I think they are definitely at risk.

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My TA is cruise only and is financially devastated. She is associated w Amex, but prob an independent of sorts. She has always gone the extra mile and gotten things for us cruise line reluctant to do. I plan on sending her a check as we will be cancelling a lot of $ cruises and from what I read agents prob get about half of 10% commissions from cruise lines. 

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Crystal----I agree with you---the scientists need to be the ones who inform the public. The folks at 1600

need to shut up.:classic_angry:...the worst of the mis communication is coming from there.

 

I have 2 cruises booked and I still haven't  made a final decision if I am going or not:classic_blink: Both cruises were

booked directly through the cruise lines and I will not lose any money on them....but I am just waiting a bit

longer to figure out what my best course is for me.

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Anyone want to help me some coronavirus/cruise math?

 

I am trying to determine the ratio of U.S port ships that are quarantined/being tested vs. U.S. port ships sailing right now? 

 

Does anyone know that number? I am trying to determine the current percentage of cruises impacted out of the United States.

 

If anyone knows how many cruises leave US ports each week, that would be helpful. Thanks in advance!

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Heathernijoli- I agree, we are only hearing about a few compared to the many out sailing enjoying themselves as we speak.

 

https://www.cruisemapper.com/

 

shows all the cruises out now. Maybe this will help.

 

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I assume many people have to fly to get to where the cruise starts from.  This worth keeping an eye on, if the argument between the airlines and the feds result in cancellation on routes near a coronavirus outbreak. Any time before this such a drastic result would have been unthinkable. It isn't now.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/coronavirus-airlines-white-house-tensions/index.html

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Have back to back cruises scheduled for mid April and really don't want cruise credit but want a refund or to take cruise as saheduled.  Also I have casino credits on these cruises.  Will they extend these also??  

 

For the time being have not cancelled but if another ship is affected plan on cancelling. 

 

I suspect the current credit only offer will change before by sail date as I really believe it is just a matter of time till ships are laid up like air planes due to health risks. 

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When were ALL airplanes cancelled for a disease?

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KTS is right on. But even if the government has good intentions, these quarantines are totally futile. Symptoms don’t show right away, and many people who actually do have symptoms will either assume they have the flu or refuse to report themselves, either because they don’t want to be quarantined or don’t have insurance. It’s impossible to quarantine everyone. If it was working we wouldn’t see the explosive spread we’re seeing.

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They aren’t going to stop sailing. But it will be a risk that there will be port closures and some fairly extreme rerouting with more sea days, especially on the early spring European cruises.

 

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I think it would take a federal order and even then I am not sure how much jurisdiction they would have in international waters.

 

The only other reason they would cruise would be if it became financially unfeasible to run the ships.  I am not privy to what level of occupancy that would be.  The ships are still pretty full though from the bookings I have been looking at in March and april.   They are mostly at 95% occupancy so it’s not a total fallout.  And likely over 100 percent accounting for the 3rd/4th berths.

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i think it is less about telling the cruise lines to stop and more about just closing the ports.  if there is no port open, no port staff and immigrations staff, the cruise lines have no choice.

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Posted (edited)

After the announcement this morning by the CDC & State Department I for one am concerned that the government will decide to ban cruise ships from docking in the USA if the Coronavirus numbers continue to increase.
 

Seeing stock prices from CCL drop over 40%, bookings being cancelled, and the government warning USA citizens not to take a cruise it makes me wonder if the cruise industry as we know it today (Carnival, Princess, Holland America, Costa, Seabourn) or will we see consolidation.

 

My wife and I have a cruise booked to Greenland in August and we would to do a transatlantic in April. 

Edited by Syracusefan44
Edited post.

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When Costa Concordia tragically capsized there was talk Costa would disappear. People have sort memories. Hopefully the virus will wain and the cruise industry bounces back.

 

As others have said, there are many cruise ships around going about their usual business. The media thrives on bad news. It will never report on the many happy virus free ships coming and going.    

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Posted (edited)

No. The world will never be the same again. We will be living in caves and drinking ditch water. We're doomed.

Edited by That sinking feeling

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