RCL Stock

[Ocean Boy]

Sure seems like your tune has changed from the.... we need to just go on with our lives days.

[Builder31]

All of the above is well in to the price. 85% decline in stock value is about as pessimistic as it gets. Short selling is driving it down.

 

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Short interest ratio is only 2.5. It’s not really being shorted.

 

 

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[The_Big_M]

6 minutes ago, Builder31 said:

Short interest ratio is only 2.5. It’s not really being shorted.

 

 

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Exactly.

 

The same as the 85% is not as pessimistic as it can, and will be.

[Blizzard54]

3 hours ago, irzero said:

The government are doing this.

The one thing that would change my mind is if they told the truth about the actual numbers which I'm starting to think are way worse than they are letting on. There is 107 deaths and yet they are setting up emergency morgue and drafting the army in.

Some one isnt telling the truth...

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The total US deaths is up to 168 the last time I was able to numbers for the us from the John Hopkins site. 

These are the latest numbers for NY and Washington State.  The confirmed cases in Washington State are low do to lack of testing.  Also because of the lack of testing the death rate looks very high.

 

New York, US

Confirmed: 3,083
Deaths: 20
Recovered: 0 
Active: 3,063

 

Washington, US

Confirmed: 1,187
Deaths: 68
Recovered: 0 
Active: 1,119

[DrivesLikeMario]

14 hours ago, Blizzard54 said:

It is now combinable with C&A balcony discounts and most promotions 

It could be temporarily suspended with their financial crisis. 

Thanks for answering my questions!  Appreciate it.

[rtazz17]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard54 said:

 

The total US deaths is up to 168 the last time I was able to numbers for the us from the John Hopkins site. 

These are the latest numbers for NY and Washington State.  The confirmed cases in Washington State are low do to lack of testing.  Also because of the lack of testing the death rate looks very high.

 

New York, US

Confirmed: 3,083
Deaths: 20
Recovered: 0 
Active: 3,063

 

Washington, US

Confirmed: 1,187
Deaths: 68
Recovered: 0 
Active: 1,119

Want to scare yourself check on how many in united states have died from flu in same period of time. Or from heart disease daily. But nobody cares about their diet? Or car accidents. More died in united states in car accidents in the 1.5 hrs of presidents press conference today then total deaths of covid 19.Just facts. Alright off topic again.

[Baron Barracuda]

5 hours ago, irzero said:

 Just wait till they force close all hotels and bars and restaurants.


 

Bars and restaurants in NYC and many surrounding areas eliminated table service several days ago.  Now takeout / delivery only.

[taglovestocruise]

Barrons and Sumzero came out today with a 18 - 24 month price target of $80.00 for RCL.

Why Would Anyone Buy Royal Caribbean Stock? Here’s a Manager’s Bull Case.

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET.

Conclusion

Although the situation surrounding Covid-19 is changing constantly, making it difficult to accurately quantify the impact to RCL, the cruise industry, and the overall economy, it will be temporary. If investors believe the situation is so dire that the company will have to suspend cruises beyond the first half of 2020, then a private-equity buyout or a favorable reorganization is much more likely than Chapter 7. The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse, and RCL’s proven track record is one that can give investors across the capital stack confidence in recovering value after the coronavirus pandemic ends.

---

 

By 

Pooria Dariush, Secured Debt Investments

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET

[ed01106]

11 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons and Sumzero came out today with a 18 - 24 month price target of $80.00 for RCL.

Why Would Anyone Buy Royal Caribbean Stock? Here’s a Manager’s Bull Case.

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET.

Conclusion

Although the situation surrounding Covid-19 is changing constantly, making it difficult to accurately quantify the impact to RCL, the cruise industry, and the overall economy, it will be temporary. If investors believe the situation is so dire that the company will have to suspend cruises beyond the first half of 2020, then a private-equity buyout or a favorable reorganization is much more likely than Chapter 7. The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse, and RCL’s proven track record is one that can give investors across the capital stack confidence in recovering value after the coronavirus pandemic ends.

---

 

By 

Pooria Dariush, Secured Debt Investments

Updated March 18, 2020 1:34 pm ET / Original March 18, 2020 1:26 pm ET

Interesting.  He assumes only a 40% decline in passengers vs 2019.  Basically every cruise ship is operational by end of May at pretty close to capacity.  He does not take into consideration the cost of FCC bonuses for canceled cruises. Nor does he factor in lower prices, more OBC to entice passengers.  Nor factoring in a need for a massive marketing campaign to get people to sail again. 

 

Basically he is assuming that it will act like the seasonal flu and disappear in the spring, but unlike the flu won’t return next fall.

 

I am not that optimistic.  

 

[Blizzard54]

2 hours ago, rtazz17 said:

Want to scare yourself check on how many in united states have died from flu in same period of time. Or from heart disease daily. But nobody cares about their diet? Or car accidents. More died in united states in car accidents in the 1.5 hrs of presidents press conference today then total deaths of covid 19.Just facts. Alright off topic again.

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

[RoyalC]

6 hours ago, Builder31 said:

Short interest ratio is only 2.5. It’s not really being shorted.

 

 

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You might not have up to date info on that 2.5- my account also said 2.5 but that was like three weeks ago!

[ed01106]

45 minutes ago, irzero said:

Rapid testing could be the saviour of cruise ships. 

 

Test for immunity then you are good to cruise.

Test for infection. You dont get on the ship if infected.

If we could develop a test with near instant feedback (under an hour) and identifies very early.  (E,g  if you got it from someone on the flight an hour ago the test would come back positive) then that would work.  I doubt we are close to that.  

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

Guess I am at the wrong topic RCL stock.

[ed01106]

3 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

Cruises are in a race against time to work out how to sail with this threat which wont be gone for 12-24 months via vaccine. Even if drugs work they dont stop infection they just treat it. Until then stocks will be in for a rough time as with the cruise lines.

And I think they will lose that race and go bankrupt.  I would buy put options in cruise stocks not the stocks themselves.

[dasmonkey]

1 hour ago, ed01106 said:

Interesting.  He assumes only a 40% decline in passengers vs 2019.  Basically every cruise ship is operational by end of May at pretty close to capacity.  He does not take into consideration the cost of FCC bonuses for canceled cruises. Nor does he factor in lower prices, more OBC to entice passengers.  Nor factoring in a need for a massive marketing campaign to get people to sail again. 

 

Basically he is assuming that it will act like the seasonal flu and disappear in the spring, but unlike the flu won’t return next fall.

 

I am not that optimistic.  

 

This ^

I would love to hear their explanation of this quote,
"The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse."

What exactly has been "far worse" than a complete shut down and total shut off of income for who knows how many months?

[Ocean Boy]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

Sorry.😞

[ed01106]

9 minutes ago, irzero said:

I would not short this stock. You could be wiped out just on a market rally.

I am not a big fan of shorting a stock — prefer buying put options.  

Edited March 19, 2020 by ed01106

[bobmacliberty]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday

 

My deepest condolences on your loss.

[ed01106]

11 minutes ago, dasmonkey said:

This ^

I would love to hear their explanation of this quote,
"The industry is resilient and has fared through far worse."

What exactly has been "far worse" than a complete shut down and total shut off of income for who knows how many months?

The luxury ocean liner industry did go thru something that might have been worse.  They adapted by selling most of the fleet to US navy to become troop transports.  Only possible explanation. This should take less time than WWII

[ed01106]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

So sorry.

[barry1984]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

This will be bigger than all those other numbers if we do not get a handle on it.

I do not need to scare myself, my brother died from covid 19 yesterday   

Very sorry for your loss.

[Ocean Boy]

3 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

The luxury ocean liner industry did go thru something that might have been worse.  They adapted by selling most of the fleet to US navy to become troop transports.  Only possible explanation. This should take less time than WWII

I don't think the navy is in the market right now. I say being shut down is about as bad as it gets.

[grandgeezer]

16 minutes ago, irzero said:

 

They have a fleet of 25bln USD worth of ships. A staff made up of low wage crew on temporary contracts that basically work for tips. 1.3bln in existing credit and cash and a product that will be in demand once this is all over. A bank flush with newly minted low interest cash from the central bank would be lining up for some long term credit facility to Royal in return for some serious long term profitable loans. 

 

I would not short this stock. You could be wiped out just on a market rally.

What would you suggest they do with the ship inventory? In today’s environment the real value of these ships is probably a small fraction of the number you mentioned. Who would buy them and how much collateral would they fetch with a loan.

Because of this I don’t see many suitors of any kind.

[Baron Barracuda]

1 hour ago, RoyalC said:

You might not have up to date info on that 2.5- my account also said 2.5 but that was like three weeks ago!

 

Received notification from my broker this morning that RCL is "hard to borrow".  Shorts must be all over it.

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

1 minute ago, grandgeezer said:

What would you suggest they do with the ship inventory? In today’s environment the real value of these ships is probably a small fraction of the number you mentioned. Who would buy them and how much collateral would they fetch with a loan.

Because of this I don’t see many suitors of any kind.

I do not see why anyone is in a panic mode about either cruise line. They have been in far worse situations in the past and came back out on top. I am sure this is a temporary set back. This virus should diminish very soon. China reported only one new case yesterday and one today.