CDC Delays Cruising for a While

[Laminator]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/cdc-extends-no-sail-order-for-cruise-ships-as-industry-ravaged-by-the-coronavirus/ar-BB12pv5w?ocid=spartandhp

 

[Scrapnana]

I'm not surprised.

[giustot]

People are focusing on the 100 days but the order could be changed or rescinded once the US government deems coronavirus no longer a public health hazard. I think the heart of the order is putting cruise lines on notice they have not done enough to deal with the virus and from now on it's their problem, not the US healthcare system's problem.

 

The cruise lines now have the responsibility for monitoring and treating the virus on their ships without sending people to US hospitals except under the most extreme situations. The cruise lines are also responsible for getting passengers and crew home, which may involve chartered flights.

 

Tom.

Edited April 10, 2020 by giustot

[Nymich]

19 minutes ago, giustot said:

People are focusing on the 100 days but the order could be changed or rescinded once the US government deems coronavirus no longer a public health hazard. I think the heart of the order is putting cruise lines on notice they have not done enough to deal with the virus and from now on it's their problem, not the US healthcare system's problem.

 

The cruise lines now have the responsibility for monitoring and treating the virus on their ships without sending people to US hospitals except under the most extreme situations. The cruise lines are also responsible for getting passengers and crew home, which may involve chartered flights.

 

Tom.

Well said.  People have had it with hearing about Cruise Ships.  I wonder how they all hang on financially because there is no way I see how social distancing cruising could work.

[KirkNC]

It’s possible that new regulatory burdens (no matter how appropriate) may be the straw that breaks the cruise industry backs.

[chengkp75]

26 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

It’s possible that new regulatory burdens (no matter how appropriate) may be the straw that breaks the cruise industry backs.

Reading the updated order from the CDC, it appears, to me at least, to be issued in order to stop sailings until the newly required action plans can be submitted and vetted.  The order can be changed or rescinded at any time by the CDC, as it states, and I believe with the acceptance of action plans, it will be.  When this will happen is uncertain, but may or may not last the full 100 days.  It is interesting to note that the order is specifically described as not a rule, but an emergency action, so I don't foresee that the required action plans, or most of its requirements, as being continued after the current health emergency is over.

[Krazy Kruizers]

Thank you for the link.

 

I am not surprised they are delaying decisions as to ships sailing.

[TN Fem]

I'm not sure how much I trust the CDC. They've also released guidance that allows "essential" workers that used to need to quarantine because of exposure to return to work with a face mask and orders to take their temp twice a day and if you do get sick you can return to work much sooner as well. 

[Krazy Kruizers]

Just heard on the TV about the 100 day delay for cruise ships.

[Lido deck main]

It is not just up to the CDC or when the US Government no longer deems Covid19 a public health hazard.  It is when the world decides,  we can’t cruise until countries  decides to open their ports.  Where are we going to cruise to, with all the ports closed.   Our Prime Minister just came out and said the social distancing measures we are taking are the new normal until we get a vaccine for Covid19.  A vaccine  is a minimum of six months more likely a year to 18 months away.  There will be no cruising until that time, once a vaccine is out and everybody in the world has had the vaccine that is when cruising will start.

[bouhunter]

16 minutes ago, Lido deck main said:

 everybody in the world has had the vaccine that is when cruising will start.

Well that is......... never.

[cruisemom42]

Aside from all the big issues involved, this announcement just adds more uncertainty for cruisers who have cruises scheduled in the short-term -- cruises which the cruise lines have not yet canceled.

 

Since this "declaration" doesn't seem to be set in stone, will cruise lines use it as an excuse to still not cancel those cruises, keeping passengers on hold, or will they step up and go ahead and start canceling some of these cruises that are so clearly NOT going to take place?

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, cruisemom42 said:

Aside from all the big issues involved, this announcement just adds more uncertainty for cruisers who have cruises scheduled in the short-term -- cruises which the cruise lines have not yet canceled.

 

Since this "declaration" doesn't seem to be set in stone, will cruise lines use it as an excuse to still not cancel those cruises, keeping passengers on hold, or will they step up and go ahead and start canceling some of these cruises that are so clearly NOT going to take place?

Or will they submit and "operationalize" their action plans so that the CDC rescinds the order before the 100 days?

[cruisemom42]

Just now, chengkp75 said:

Or will they submit and "operationalize" their action plans so that the CDC rescinds the order before the 100 days?

 

I'm guess cruise lines must have already started doing this?  In your opinion, how long do you think that will take?  

 

It seems hard to imagine that they are going to get that done at least within the first third of that period (rough guess based on zero knowledge...) and in addition a huge number of ports remain closed to ships. So where, even if approved, are they going to take people on a cruise?

 

 

[chengkp75]

10 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I'm guess cruise lines must have already started doing this?  In your opinion, how long do you think that will take?  

 

It seems hard to imagine that they are going to get that done at least within the first third of that period (rough guess based on zero knowledge...) and in addition a huge number of ports remain closed to ships. So where, even if approved, are they going to take people on a cruise?

 

 

Well, the order requires them to submit the plan within 7 days, and that I feel is doable, as CLIA has already worked with CDC on the original order and drafted a response plan, but one that needed further revision according to the CDC.  When the plans can be "operationalized" is something I won't even begin to speculate on, but I would make a SWAG at 30 days.  The order does allow for cooperation in implementing the plan between cruise lines, and even with the trade group, CLIA.  So, the need for "hospital" ships and "hotel" ships, can be spread across lines.  Whether other countries will start accepting cruise ships based on the action plans submitted in the US is another question. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by chengkp75

[wesport]

The Saudis invested in CCL with the assumption of a zero sail until November. They  also said it is possible that 25% could possibly start sailing over the summer. This was the optimistic assumption.  

[Heartgrove]

Another fly in the ointment is Australia vs. Ruby Princess. It shows how manipulative CCL has been with its incorporation in Australia.

[Fredric22]

People see a vaccine as the only "end" to this, but that is simply not true.  Treatments are our best bet to end this sooner.  When we have good treatments in place (they are being developed around the world), COVID-19 becomes a treatable disease and will be more like getting the flu (which it already is for most folks).  Mortality rates will drop significantly and hospital and ICU admissions will fall too. For those at extremely high risk, the danger may remain elevated (some of these people cant receive treatments for various reasons) but that is why cruises will not embark very high risk individuals for quite some time, if ever. 

 

[Wayfairers]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

Since this "declaration" doesn't seem to be set in stone, will cruise lines use it as an excuse to still not cancel those cruises, keeping passengers on hold, or will they step up and go ahead and start canceling some of these cruises that are so clearly NOT going to take place?

Edited April 10, 2020 by Wayfairers

[Wayfairers]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

 

It seems hard to imagine that they are going to get that done at least within the first third of that period (rough guess based on zero knowledge...) and in addition a huge number of ports remain closed to ships. So where, even if approved, are they going to take people on a cruise?

 

 

[HappyInVan]

IMO, we have to be realistic. Ignore the industry PR.

 

Look at the cost of CCL's fund raising. Secured bonds at 11.5%. Selling only half the new equity at $8/share. CCL is desperately raising funds to stay afloat till the new year. That's their projection of how long it will take to resume normal operations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wayfairers]

Sorry about the previous two posts. Something went wrong with the first one and I wasn’t able to add text and the 2nd one I quoted the wrong post.   Ugh

 

anyway, I’ve wondered what the cruise line response will be because it could go either way.  They could easily keep people in limbo thinking the CDC will lift the no sail. 

[zelker]

Keep in mind that this only applies to US ports.

[iancal]

It may only apply to US ports however it will have a definite impact on the American cruising public  as they consider buying  cruises than embark and disembark in other parts of the world.

[zelker]

The pandemic itself is what will impact the cruising public, American or not.  The point of this is that unless there are comparable entities in other countries doing the same thing, this will not shut the cruise lines down anywhere but what's under US control.