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Are we seeing the end of cruising?


weberman
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40 minutes ago, D C said:

The efforts to which some people go to be negative is quite mind boggling.

 

COVID is everywhere in the world right now. Whether a cruise port city has 1, 100, or 1000 COVID19 cases RIGHT NOW is irrelevant to the normalcy that will be the future in the coming months and years. Unless entire islands are planning to isolate from the outside world and literally wait out the disease, COVID cases will increase everywhere for the foreseeable future. Management will become key.  A vaccine is unlikely and herd immunity is unlikely in the short term, which means that the need to learn to live with COVID is very likely. That seems to be an extremely difficult concept for some people to grasp.

 

How we collectively manage the "future normal" will determine the future of every activity that involves groups of people.

 

The choices are to accept the reality and make conscious decisions and risk assessments on an individual basis, deciding which activities are acceptable or not for one's given situation; or to sit back, be negative, and refuse to acknowledge that life will go on despite the presence of a virus.  I don't own a crystal ball, but I suspect the cruise industry and most ports of call are on the "let's figure out how to establish a new normal" side of the fence. 

 

This is far from the end of cruising. We might see smaller fleets, fewer ports of call, and perhaps less diversity in ages on some ships.  The demand is too big to collapse completely, imho. 

It is really not everywhere.  There are places where control is working and numbers are dropping  New Zealand, Australia for example. Much of the south pacific have also done very well by keeping the virus out by keeping outsiders put. Even areas in the US are doing well.  Hawaii, Alaska have very few cases.  No coincidence that is also the places that have the tightest restrictions, especially dealing with travel from the outside.  With 14 day quarantines for those entering the area. In Hawaii the quarantine is even for those inside the state going between the island.  Their controls are working.

Edited by npcl
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4 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Fact check: A simple check of this wiki resource will show a multitude of low/rare infection countries and territories. All these examples are cruise destinations.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic#Epidemiology

 

 

British Virgin Islands (pop 35k) has 7 confirmed cases. “From 19 March, Public Health England no longer classified COVID-19 as a "High consequence infectious disease".[4]”

 

Papua New Guinea (pop 8.6m) has 8 cases. Last known infection April 23.

 

Seychelles (pop 97k) has 11 cases. Turks and Caicos Islands (pop 55k ) has 12 cases.

 

It's not just the rarity of the disease. The big worry on the minds of the locals is how they will cope with an outbreak.

 

Check the WHO reports to identify the destinations where the infection is classified as 'sporadic' versus 'community spread'.

 

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

 

 

Of course, you are entitled to your opinion, and you can spend your money as you like. I do recommend to Happy Cruisers that you safeguard yourself by avoiding the places where 'community spread' is ongoing. And protect the safe communities where infection is rare.

 

I live in an area of 5 counties that have had together a total of 134 cases.  The last new case was 19 days ago.  We have been operating under pretty tight restrictions, but starting tomorrow we are opening up a number of things including retail businesses, dine in restaurants, gyms, etc. Many places have to record their customers to make sure that they can be reached if needed during contact tracing.  Travel more than 50 miles is discouraged.  Events that bring in folks from outside the area are not allowed.  The goal is 3 weeks at this level, if cases remain zero or low, then we go to the next level of rule reduction.

 

So far people are generally following the rules and it seems to be well controlled here as a result.

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10 hours ago, npcl said:

I live in an area of 5 counties that have had together a total of 134 cases.  The last new case was 19 days ago.  We have been operating under pretty tight restrictions, but starting tomorrow we are opening up a number of things including retail businesses, dine in restaurants, gyms, etc. Many places have to record their customers to make sure that they can be reached if needed during contact tracing.  Travel more than 50 miles is discouraged.  Events that bring in folks from outside the area are not allowed.  The goal is 3 weeks at this level, if cases remain zero or low, then we go to the next level of rule reduction.

 

So far people are generally following the rules and it seems to be well controlled here as a result.

Wherever you are, good luck. I truly hope that it stays controlled, and this becomes a model for other places.

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11 hours ago, npcl said:

I live in an area of 5 counties that have had together a total of 134 cases.  The last new case was 19 days ago.  We have been operating under pretty tight restrictions, but starting tomorrow we are opening up a number of things including retail businesses, dine in restaurants, gyms, etc. Many places have to record their customers to make sure that they can be reached if needed during contact tracing.  Travel more than 50 miles is discouraged.  Events that bring in folks from outside the area are not allowed.  The goal is 3 weeks at this level, if cases remain zero or low, then we go to the next level of rule reduction.

 

So far people are generally following the rules and it seems to be well controlled here as a result.

Impressive. We just don't count cases that happen where we live - it keeps our numbers low that way.

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13 hours ago, D C said:

The efforts to which some people go to be negative is quite mind boggling.

 

 

 

I'm positive. I value life.

 

I wish you well in the wars to come...

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/calls-to-violence-michigan-gov-whitmer-says-armed-protests-could-lengthen-stay-at-home-order.html

 

In the meantime, our border is closed. You don't get to infect us. See chart.

 

Sorry Happy Cruisers. No cruises to Canada.

 

BC covid stats May 11.JPG

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For those interested here is a trend chart updated daily for each US state with regards to "new cases per 100,000" collected by folks at Johns Hopkins University. Just click on the state you're interested in and their applicable trend chart will appear below the US chart.

 

https://time.com/5827156/squashing-squash-curve-coronavirus-covid19/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20200428&xid=newsletter-brief

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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5 hours ago, AF-1 said:

well bars and restaurants are opening back up today in Ohio.

 

They opened up in Wisconsin as well. I like the comment by Jimmy Kimmel when looking at a clip of a totally crowded bar in Milwaukee: 

 

“Terrific, a new season of ‘The Mil-walking Dead.’”

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2 hours ago, LDVinNC said:

I view it sort of like the secondhand smoke debate...your right to smoke/not wear a mask should not impinge on my right to be healthy.

To put in another way ones right to Life, is listed before  ones right to Liberty in the Declaration of independence.

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3 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

For those interested here is a trend chart updated daily for each US state with regards to "new cases per 100,000" collected by folks at Johns Hopkins University. Just click on the state you're interested in and their applicable trend chart will appear below the US chart.

 

https://time.com/5827156/squashing-squash-curve-coronavirus-covid19/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20200428&xid=newsletter-brief

 

It's difficult to assess how well the states are doing in terms of infection. There's a lack of transparency about the amount of testing being done. In terms of publicly available information, this wiki resource shows the tests information from only ten states (Virus testing statistics by country subdivision).

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing#Virus_testing_statistics_by_country

 

Fortunately, CA, WA, NY, New Jersey and Florida have information about the number of tests.

 

The chart below from Georgia (pop 8.6m) illustrates the problem.

 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

 

The info from the Georgia Department of Public Health only states total amount of tests, 301k total. Separately, the number of positive tests from different sources (see chart). The state itself is doing a nominal amount of covid tests. Almost all are done by commercial labs (out of state?) with long lag times.

 

We need to know the number of tests results returned for each lag day in order to correlate with the results, In late March, there was a surge in identified cases because of a surge in lab testing. Is the fall in identified cases in May caused by a fall in infection or by fewer tests? Or by the delay in reporting?

 

Certain political factions would seize on this graph and proclaim that the worst is over. Not!

 

Continued in Part2...

 

Georgia tests May 15.JPG

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Part 2

 

The most up to date and reliable indicator is in the number of hospitalizations and death.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Georgia_(U.S._state)

 

Georgia's fatalities are growing at 2% per day. Every 35 days, the number of deaths double. Currently, the reported number of deaths are 1,544. Scaled up to the population of USA, that's 59k dead. Out-performing the nation with its 83k dead.

 

After some time, Georgia would catch up to the nation per capita. After that, if the infection continues, Georgia would eventually catch up with CA and NY in terms of fatalities per capita. Assuming that CA and NY continues to squash the curve.

 

Here's a useful red flag. Georgia does provide a capacity utilization of hospital beds. Critical care has had a utilization rate of 70% for several weeks. ER beds (see attached PDF) has seen increasing utilization.. On April 16, ER utilization was 22%. On May 1st, 25%. On May 14, it was 28%. Once utilization reached 70%, there is no reserve left. 'Do Not Resuscitate'.

 

Should you visit a Georgia port in September?

 

Ohio (pop 11.7m) doesn't have much testing info. Says that 231k tested cumulative. Not enough for 11m people. Fortunately, Ohio has no cruise ports!

 

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases

 

The fatalities are growing at 3%. Do the math.

 

This is how the Koreans do it. They do 10k tests a day just to uncover a dozen infections. In addition, they have fantastic contact tracing, and a matching app. Is your state ready for the reopening?

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

BTW, the Koreans use the proper PCR tests. Not the Abbott quick-result tests...

 

Abbott says that they have shipped 1.5 million machines around the country. How many false negatives? Does your state use them?

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/false-negatives-raise-more-questions-about-virus-test-accuracy-1.1436025

 

 

 

 

5-14-20_Georgia_Situation_Report_COVID_Updated.pdf

Edited by HappyInVan
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20 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Part 2

 

The most up to date and reliable indicator is in the number of hospitalizations and death.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Georgia_(U.S._state)

 

Georgia's fatalities are growing at 2% per day. Every 35 days, the number of deaths double. Currently, the reported number of deaths are 1,544. Scaled up to the population of USA, that's 59k dead. Out-performing the nation with its 83k dead.

 

After some time, Georgia would catch up to the nation per capita. After that, if the infection continues, Georgia would eventually catch up with CA and NY in terms of fatalities per capita. Assuming that CA and NY continues to squash the curve.

 

Here's a useful red flag. Georgia does provide a capacity utilization of hospital beds. Critical care has had a utilization rate of 70% for several weeks. ER beds (see attached PDF) has seen increasing utilization.. On April 16, ER utilization was 22%. On May 1st, 25%. On May 14, it was 28%. Once utilization reached 70%, there is no reserve left. 'Do Not Resuscitate'.

 

Should you visit a Georgia port in September?

 

Ohio (pop 11.7m) doesn't have much testing info. Says that 231k tested cumulative. Not enough for 11m people. Fortunately, Ohio has no cruise ports!

 

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases

 

The fatalities are growing at 3%. Do the math.

 

This is how the Koreans do it. They do 10k tests a day just to uncover a dozen infections. In addition, they have fantastic contact tracing, and a matching app. Is your state ready for the reopening?

 

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

 

BTW, the Koreans use the proper PCR tests. Not the Abbott quick-result tests...

 

Abbott says that they have shipped 1.5 million machines around the country. How many false negatives? Does your state use them?

 

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/false-negatives-raise-more-questions-about-virus-test-accuracy-1.1436025

 

 

 

 

5-14-20_Georgia_Situation_Report_COVID_Updated.pdf 354.52 kB · 1 download

Problem is even the PCR tests have a false negative problem.  As one study indicated as much as 40% test negative on day 2 after symptoms, That drops to 22% on day 7.  You have several examples of people testing negative multiple times, using different tests.

 

Tests are good to confirm, but not that good to indicate that someone is  free from Covid.

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6 hours ago, LDVinNC said:

I view it sort of like the secondhand smoke debate...your right to smoke/not wear a mask should not impinge on my right to be healthy.

 

Maybe this would be the perfect time, and excuse,  to have cruise lines declare that smoking is no longer allowed on their ships if they really cared about the health of their passengers.

Edited by PrincessLuver
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1 hour ago, npcl said:

Problem is even the PCR tests have a false negative problem.  As one study indicated as much as 40% test negative on day 2 after symptoms, That drops to 22% on day 7.  You have several examples of people testing negative multiple times, using different tests.

 

Tests are good to confirm, but not that good to indicate that someone is  free from Covid.

 

Hmmm

 

Regardless of the merits of PCR tests, the Abbott test performed poorly against the Cepheid test.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/21/coronavirus-test-returns-results-in-45-minutes/

 

"The researchers found that Abbott's test, run on the company's portable ID NOW system, missed one-third of the infections caught by Cepheid's test when swabs were stored in liquid used to transport laboratory samples. When the samples were kept dry the test missed 48% of the cases flagged by Cepheid's test...The Abbott test, which takes 13 minutes at most, is quicker than most other coronavirus tests on the market. Several tests take 30 minutes to two hours, and Cepheid's test takes 45 minutes. The FDA recently authorized the Quidel Antigen Test, which takes 15 minutes... Kelly Wroblewski, director of infectious disease at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, said other studies have also found accuracy issues with the Abbott tests..." 

 

The Cepheid test is meant to work in a  clinical setting, with doctors examining the patient. The Abbott test is much more popular than the Cepheid because of its portability. Ideal for deployment in offices for visitors. But, you don't really need to test visitors if they wear masks and do distancing.

 

"Wroblewski said part of the issue is that rapid tests sometimes don't perform as well as tests that take longer to run. "You end up sacrificing accuracy for speed," she said."

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/health/abbott-covid-test-misses-cases-health/index.html

 

Had the Abbott test proven reliable, then a ship's MD could clear suspects quickly at disembarkation. But, I suppose that Health Authorities will still insist on getting results from a laboratory, before disembarking the pax. Too bad. 

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Does anyone remember this guy?

 

"All is well.  Cruising will be better than ever shortly.  Princess has outstanding financial capabilities and will weather this storm better than ever.  You can feel safe leaving your money with us at Princess Cruises for your wonderful upcoming future cruises."

 

baghad-bob-brian-williams.jpg?itok=Hlwnv

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59 minutes ago, SCOOTERNINJA said:

Does anyone remember this guy?

 

"All is well.  Cruising will be better than ever shortly.  Princess has outstanding financial capabilities and will weather this storm better than ever.  You can feel safe leaving your money with us at Princess Cruises for your wonderful upcoming future cruises."

 

baghad-bob-brian-williams.jpg?itok=Hlwnv

 

LOL.....spot on!!!

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11 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

Maybe this would be the perfect time, and excuse,  to have cruise lines declare that smoking is no longer allowed on their ships if they really cared about the health of their passengers.

 

If cruiselines cared about passenger health, they would not have all-you-can-eat buffets.

 

I have seen many passengers ... who I think are intent on getting their entire cruise fare back in food.

 

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On 5/14/2020 at 8:03 PM, D C said:

The choices are to accept the reality and make conscious decisions and risk assessments on an individual basis, deciding which activities are acceptable or not for one's given situation; or to sit back, be negative, and refuse to acknowledge that life will go on despite the presence of a virus.

 

If a port is closed to cruise ships, you can make whatever personal choices you wish...

 

...but you aren't going there on a cruise ship.

 

Personally, my luggage is on extended layup.

 

(cold layup, before an argument ensues)

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3 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

 

If a port is closed to cruise ships, you can make whatever personal choices you wish...

 

...but you aren't going there on a cruise ship.

 

Personally, my luggage is on extended layup.

 

(cold layup, before an argument ensues)

 

Agree......there are going to be so many places that will not want cruise ships anywhere near their ports in the age of COVID-19....there were already always a lot of the people who had coughs on the ships we were on so I can imagine how popular a person with a cough will be on ships now.

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Might not be a bad idea if Princess (and any other cruise line) were to reinstate the Bon Voyage Experience.  They always limited how many people could come on board for it anyway and it just might keep up the interest in cruising.  From what I'm seeing, different ships have been coming into various US ports to refuel and restock.  Maybe they could offer BVE on those days.  The BVE wouldn't run afoul the CDC order as that order only covers passenger vessels anticipating a overnight stay or a 24 hour stay onboard.  Just a thought...

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39 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

The BVE wouldn't run afoul the CDC order as that order only covers passenger vessels anticipating a overnight stay or a 24 hour stay onboard.  Just a thought...

 

Since the BVE is a group tour for a pax's guests, would that violate CDC or state guidelines on distancing and events?

Edited by HappyInVan
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