Jump to content

Are we seeing the end of cruising?


weberman
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yet, here is some insight from another LA Times travel writer David Lazarus: It is mainly about NCL but applies to Carnival/Princess as well

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-cruise-ship-industry-sinking-120054719.html 

Lazarus makes some interesting points! I had a bout of Norovirirus on one of my cruises and it was terrible.

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

My DW and I are both 76, so we are done with cruising.

 

Lazarus made this interesting comment: 

But the larger issue, which Norwegian touched on in its filing, is the public's growing perception of cruise ships as a fast track to sickness. It should be obvious to all that you're taking an enormous gamble as soon as you step aboard. (ALL CRUISE SHIPS)

 

The COVID19 virus makes the Norovirus look like a walk in the park! How many people will return to cruising?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Until a vaccine. Itsgoing to be hard to cruise if you don’t want to get sick.  You will have a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn’t.  I being one of them.  You can’t wear a mask and drink.   
When cruising opens up and people get sick on the ships. That will be a. Major blow

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's hard to tell at this point. We do see a lot of posts here from cruisers who can't wait to cruise again, but Cruise Critic members are usually devoted cruisers, so I don't think we can confirm a trend from that. How will the less addicted cruisers feel, and how many non cruisers will feel the urge to book one for the first time? The industry has certainly gotten a lot of bad publicity in recent months. I have been a faithful cruiser but would be reluctant to book one now until a vaccine arrives. We'll have to wait and see how the final numbers shake down after all these restrictions are finally lifted. Impossible to accurately predict at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point I am hoping that what comes out of this is a smaller, more customer service focused industry.  One that is more focused on maintaining a quality experience on ship and in port.

 

Over the last 10 years the change has been huge and in many ways not positive.  Not so much the ship board experience, but the degradation of the port experience, especially in Alaska and the Caribbean.

 

10 years ago you would see 1, maybe 2 ships in port at the same time in Alaskan ports.  These days 5 + is not unusual.

 

I would not be disappointed to see the size of the mass market industry to be cut in half with the trend to larger and larger mega ships ended.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The cruise companies have to sail again. They can't afford to wait until 2021.

 

The question is who will they target as customers? IMO, the brands with the oldest customers are in trouble because they are the ones who suffer horrendous death rates from covid. 

 

Not a coincidence that Carnival brand has been the first to announce resumption of operations. Cheap and cheerful. Short itineraries, and easy access for Americans. I expect that their cruises will be loaded with younger pax. Party!

 

I would also expect that the most popular vessels would be the new mega ships with all the bells and whistles.

 

I would also expect that the infection rate would be high, and the partiers will bring the disease to their hometowns. 

 

Yes, I wouldn't sail from an American port until there is a vaccine.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think... the thing is that ships cost a a lot to keep either running , at warm lay-up or at cold lay-up......

 

Cruising in a business they need cash flow.... the longer cruising is stopped   .... and with no set  start date.....

which the cruise companies have no control over.... as is it up to each country to allow them to dock...

 

They will have to start making decisions about weather or not to move some of their fleet from warm lay-up to cold lay up

which I believe is about a third of the standing costs...... but once at cold lay-up  it could talk a couple months or longer to get it back up, ready for service.....

 

Then do they break even if the ship is running 50% full... or is it 75% full ( i don't know )

 

So when you stand back and look at it..... there is lot at stake... the the wrong decision how could send the company under...         

 

So for the sake of the cruise companies  there will have to start some operations by mid July or August.......

 

to get some cash flow....... so will it be the end of cruising...... maybe not.... but it will be different......

 

the above it just the thought of somebody whom has been in lockdown a bit long....

 

Cheers Don  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

NCL will survive. The question is whether the current stock holder will have anything in 2 years. NCL could go through bankruptcy reorganization (chapter 11), not liquidation (chapter 7). The debt holders will get the company, and then run it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We feel cruising will survive but we may not recognize the product. Boarding requirements will likely become increasingly stringent with numbers denied boarding. Buffets will probably be not self serve.

 

Companies will survive but once again we may not recognize them.

 

At any rate like many others on these boards we’ll cruise again.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Outerdog said:

 

Shucks. You got me.

Bottom line they do now have liquidity to get them into 2021.  Not sure I agree with the 18 month line they are putting out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, weberman said:

Yet, here is some insight from another LA Times travel writer David Lazarus: It is mainly about NCL but applies to Carnival/Princess as well

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-cruise-ship-industry-sinking-120054719.html 

Lazarus makes some interesting points! I had a bout of Norovirirus on one of my cruises and it was terrible.

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

My DW and I are both 76, so we are done with cruising.

 

Lazarus made this interesting comment: 

But the larger issue, which Norwegian touched on in its filing, is the public's growing perception of cruise ships as a fast track to sickness. It should be obvious to all that you're taking an enormous gamble as soon as you step aboard. (ALL CRUISE SHIPS)

 

The COVID19 virus makes the Norovirus look like a walk in the park! How many people will return to cruising?

 

I agree with you and I do not think that all the magical thinking in the world will allow Princess to survive if a vaccine is not found for COVID-19 and the cruise lines can guarantee that you will not have a chance of getting deathly sick on a ship.  

 

There have been numerous articles in Forbes and other economic reporting that CCL and others are going to have a hard time steering clear of bankruptcy.   Probably why we are not getting promised refunds back from Princess at this time.

 

If the economy does not recovery and the recessions drags on people are not going to be thinking about cruising but just getting by in everyday life.  

 

Die hard cruisers and COVID-19 deniers probably will return to cruising but it will not be the cruising experience they were use to and there just may not be that many places that want cruise ships in their ports.  Plus you can almost bet the cost will go up just like they are predicting airline tickets could increase by 50% too because of less seat availability on planes do to social distance seating.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, weberman said:

 

 

NCL will probably not survive, but no  matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy.

 

 

 

 

Maybe having NCL restructure will not be a complete blow to the US economy but it was forecast that the revenue contributing to the US economy for 2020 was (that was before CoVid) was forecasted to be over $30 Billion (with a B).  You may not be looking at all those that count on the travel and leisure industry for their income (travel agents, hotels, airlines, food services, tours, etc, etc, etc).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Through all this - I have realized I am no longer a die-hard cruiser. My thought was if I get on another ship or my next ship, it maybe a river cruise (I loved my last river cruise). 100 people is fine for size for me. I have no desire right now to get on a ship with 4000 other people.

  • Like 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, jakeT said:

Until a vaccine. Itsgoing to be hard to cruise if you don’t want to get sick.  You will have a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn’t.  I being one of them.  You can’t wear a mask and drink.   
When cruising opens up and people get sick on the ships. That will be a. Major blow

 

Not everybody is part of "a bunch of drunk people doing what they shouldn't" . In fact, in my experience, the minority don"t  even get drunk.

 

Tom

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here we go again...

 

Whether or not you intend to cruise again or until there is a vaccine is a personal decision. Why does everyone who decides cruising is done or is done for them feel the need to let the world know? If you're onboard with me, I'll happily have a drink with you. If you're not, I wish you well. But all these threads are nothing but doom and gloom, rinse, cycle, repeat.

 

The big question is will this virus go wild once things begin to reopen? If it doesn't, in my humble opinion, cruising will resume within a couple of months. Mexican and Caribbean ports will be among the first to reopen as their economies are heavily reliant on tourist dollars. George Q Public has a short attention span and will book a cruise as soon as a good sale comes his way. We can't keep our lives shut down the year or more until a vaccine comes around, that simply is not reasonable. Herd immunity will be the only way we stop this thing.

If you're immune compromised or have pre-existing conditions that will endanger you, I can certainly see the need to keep up isolation. But the rest of the world has to carry on. And I for one will be on the promenade deck hoisting a drink when it does.

  • Like 15
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cruise Raider said:

 

 

Maybe having NCL restructure will not be a complete blow to the US economy but it was forecast that the revenue contributing to the US economy for 2020 was (that was before CoVid) was forecasted to be over $30 Billion (with a B).  You may not be looking at all those that count on the travel and leisure industry for their income (travel agents, hotels, airlines, food services, tours, etc, etc, etc).  

Taking Florida for example according to a study of Florida'a ports in 2016  the cruise industry generates a little over 7 billion in economic impact and pays a total of 213 million in state and local taxes.

 

However the cargo shipping in Florida ports generated 105 billion in economic impact and resulted in a little over 4 billion in state and local taxes.

 

Seems like Florida might do better if cruising went away and it converted those port areas to handle cargo instead.

 

 

Edited by npcl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Consistent with most people, I am concerned about cruising in the future.   While it does not seem to get as much bad press as the cruiselines, flights in my mind are much worse.   The thought of sitting beside someone on a flight to Europe concerns me more than taking a cruise.  Yes, they can get rid of the middle seat, but you are still in front of and behind someone inches away from you for 8 hours or more.   I have seen videos of how germs spread on an airplane when someone sneezes.   The thing is that people get off an airplane and then days later get sick or give the virus to someone else and it is difficult to track the origin of the virus to the flight.  

 

On a cruiseship, you can get up and walk around.  It is definitely less cramped.  There is more ventilation.  Undoubtedly, the buffets on the cruises will be changed(which is an area of virus transfers).  Another area of crowding is the muster drill, which will be dealt with.  They are already testing drills from your own stateroom.   The theatre is an area where there are crowds.  However, it is for a short period of time(the length of the show) and there may have to be limits in the short term, regarding the number of people who can attend in any one show.  In my opinion, there is a lot more that can be done on a cruiseship to help prevent the spread of the virus, than on a plane.  

 

I understand that flights are a necessity for many people and cruising is a leisure.   However, if we want to control the virus, we need to put a lot of emphasis on controlling the spread of the virus on flights than what I have seen in the news.  There are a lot of very smart people working on this problem and I am sure they are looking at this as well.   Once they are able to control the spread on flights, dealing with it on a cruiseship will be relatively easier.  Luckily, we are making significant inroads in the area of testing.  Hopefully, in the next few months, we will have a test that can be easy to administer that will prevent people from getting on a cruiseship or plane who is infected.   It is clear that it has to be more than a temperature check....

 

As it is today, I would be more concerned on taking a flight to the cruise, than getting on the cruiseship itself.  

 

 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, npcl said:

Taking Florida for example according to a study of Florida'a ports in 2016  the cruise industry generates a little over 7 billion in economic impact and pays a total of 213 million in state and local taxes.

 

However the cargo shipping in Florida ports generated 105 billion in economic impact and resulted in a little over 4 billion in state and local taxes.

 

Seems like Florida might do better if cruising went away and it converted those port areas to handle cargo instead.

 

 


I didn’t mean to indicate it was an either or ... it’s just that there is an impact on the US economy with cruises not happening, as I was responding to the post that believes it wouldn’t have an impact on our economy.  Granted, If NCL does declare a cult you, it will only be a portion of the industry’s contribution to the US economy.  
Whether or not you believe that the ports would do better to be used exclusively for shipping, that still doesn’t help those in the travel and leisure field.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is an interesting article about cruise line employees. It begs the question will cruise lines even be able to get employees, even from these poor countries and pay them chump change? It makes you THINK! Would someone want to go through something as described here? Written By Natasha Frost Travel and lifestyle reporter from QUARTZ

Tens of thousands are still stuck on cruise ships

In late February, as the first cases of Covid-19 were reported in the US, Melinda Mann, a crew member with the cruise company Holland America, boarded the Oosterdam in San Diego, to take a job working with youth staff and children on board.

More than 50 days on, Mann is still at sea. Her contract ended in mid-April but she’s not allowed to leave. Passengers—the first priority—were allowed to depart in March, but crew members, covered by separate safety guidelines, cannot. Mann, who spoke to Quartz from a ship moored in international waters off the Mexican coast near Tijuana, is one of tens of thousands of cruise ship employees and their family members stuck on vessels throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. Most are not being paid.

The days go by, one by one: She passes the time reading, playing her Nintendo Switch, and occasionally browsing Reddit, when the internet connection—which costs her $10 a GB—can support it. A few times a day, she told Quartz, she and the other hundreds of crew members on board are allowed to walk around the outside deck, providing they wear masks and keep their distance. “That is our only opportunity to see each other, beyond leaning over the balcony and yelling at each other.”

Food comes to her, three times a day: a salad or fruit, a main course, and a small dessert. “It’s hard to get clearance to dock for supplies,” she says. Her current ship—she transferred from the Oosterdam as Holland American consolidated crews—will restock in the next few days then “meet up with other ships at sea and share the supplies.”

Mann has done everything she can to get off, including asking friends and family to share public Facebook posts explaining the situation and hanging homemade banners from her window, which were later removed. “I filmed myself trying to leave the ship, and was threatened with forcible detainment by ship security,” she said.

More desperate appeals have also been unsuccessful. “I even asked to be arrested and taken into custody,” she said, “but they would not let me into the US.”

Charter jets only

There may be as many as 100,000 people in precisely the same situation—stuck at sea, with no clarity on when they’ll be able to go home. Some boats are within spitting distance of a port, while others are out in international waters.

Whose fault it is depends very much on who you ask. Cruise ship workers are allowed to disembark in the US—but only if cruise lines submit a stringent signed attestation, which commits them to a variety of requirements, as set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These include paying for crew members’ transport home and ensuring each person commits to responsible social distancing. Workers may not stay in hotels, use public transport or commercial flights, or enter airport terminals, committing their employers to chartering planes instead.

Perhaps most importantly, cruise companies’ chief medical officer, chief compliance officer, and CEO must sign an agreement to these terms that notes: “False or misleading statements or omissions may result in criminal and civil actions for fines, penalties, damages, and imprisonment.”

The CDC feels these requirements are necessary, given the potential scope of the problem; cruise companies and some crew members alike have decried them as needlessly draconian, not to mention eye-wateringly expensive, especially on ships where no one is unwell.

“I completely understand why [the companies] have been unwilling to sign,” Mann told Quartz. Instead, she lays the blame with the US: As a citizen, she said, it seems “a violation of my civil rights” to refuse her entry to her home country. “I’m as American as it gets. And my own country sent me away against my will.”

In an interview, Jim Walker, a Miami-based maritime lawyer, was more critical of the companies’ failure to pay up to get their employees home. “The last time I checked, all of these cruise lines, they literally made over a billion dollars each last year,” he said. “They don’t pay US taxes, they don’t comply with US wage and labor laws. Suddenly, they decide—this crazy sector that makes $10 or $20 billion a year—they say, ‘We’re not going to pay for them to have a private charter.’ I think it’s outrageous.”

There’s a legal question here too, he says: According to maritime law, cruise lines have a “fundamental obligation” to get their employees safely home. “It doesn’t say they get to make a decision not to do that if they think it’s too expensive.”

Gradually, however, the cruise lines are beginning to fold. The CDC keeps a running tally online: In the past week, multiple cruise lines have bitten the bullet and signed the form, allowing more than 40 ships, and thousands of crew members, to have their disembarkation approved. Mann has been told that her current ship, the Koningsdam, will be cleared to disembark on May 8.

In an email to Quartz, Jonathon Fishman, a spokesperson for Royal Caribbean, acknowledged there were still thousands of crew members at sea, but said that 12,000 had already returned home via commercial flights, charter flights, and direct sailings. The others would be “going home in coming weeks,” Fishman said, as work with governments and health authorities continued. Other cruise companies, including Carnival and Holland America, did not respond to requests for comment.

Baby on board

Erika Monet Butters, a former singer with Holland America, has a particular challenge: She has spent the last seven or so weeks on board with her two-year-old, Ezra. (Her husband is a navigation officer; the family travels together on his contract.) Her son has struggled with the changes, she said: “He went from getting all of this attention from everyone, playing with whoever he wanted, being in the pool all day, to social distancing, wearing a mask each time we leave the cabin, and no more pool.”

Instead, they are making do with toys from home and crayons, paper, and other craft items supplied by the crew. To pass the time, and let family and friends know she is safe and well, Butters has filmed herself singing dozens of covers of favorite songs, for a series she calls “Melodies at Sea.” The crowning jewel among them is a Moana cover seen by thousands,  filmed against a background of infinite blue ocean, in which she implores the CDC to let them come home: “I’ve been staring down at the water, long as I can remember,” she sings. “Is today gonna be the day?”

In the abstract, it doesn’t sound so bleak—sunny weather, crystal skies and seas, free room and board. The escape is, after all, why so many people choose to go on a cruise in the first place. Aboard both the Holland America and the Emerald Princess ship she is currently on, Butters says, the companies have handled it amazingly well, down to providing her child with his favorite snacks. “They have kept us healthy and safe on board, and we are so grateful for that.” But after more than 40 days in limbo, it’s not hard to understand why she’d be desperate to return to the car waiting for so many weeks in the parking lot of the Fort Lauderdale port.

For Mann, who has spent more than two years working on ships, choosing to speak to the media against her employer’s wishes may put an end to a career that she otherwise adores. “I have really, really enjoyed working on a cruise ship,” she said. “I actually truly loved my job—before all this happened.”

📌 

Edited by weberman
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, tntornadox said:

Herd immunity will be the only way we stop this thing.

"There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

  1. There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
  2. The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
  3. Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
  4. People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
  5. Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
  6. Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
  7. Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
  8. Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time."

Source

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share

  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Welcome to Cruise Critic
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...