Port Reopenings After Vaccine?

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

baby steps !! … things are looking up !🥃

I am beginning to see where some localities are discontinuing 14 day quarantine requirements and replacing it with documented negative results on a Covid-19 test taken within 72 hours before arrival.  No mention yet of cruise ships, but baby steps, baby steps.  I think Princess is beginning to feel some positivity for resumption of cruising by early next year.  They have extended the terms of Cruise With Confidence cancellation and final payment provisions to cruises until April 30, 2021.

[npcl]

4 hours ago, dog said:

I respectfully disagree about being sure. 

They certainly look pretty sure about what they are allowing.

 

[dog]

4 hours ago, npcl said:

They certainly look pretty sure about what they are allowing.

 

“pretty sure”???

 

okay,

 

Opening to cruise ships and will be open for how long?

 

done here

Edited June 9, 2020 by dog

[HappyCruiserettu]

On 6/5/2020 at 2:22 PM, Daniel A said:

I personally think most (not all) cruisers are likely to wait until there is an effective vaccine available and there are ports to sail to and assurances that they won't be quarantined on the ship because one crew member/passenger has a cough...

No, and somewhat, and yes.

[caribill]

14 hours ago, Fincherson said:

Virus is far less deadly than first assumed.

 

The death rate may end up being essentially the same as for the flu, but Covod-19 is much more contagious.

 

Being more contagious, more people catch it. The more people that catch it, the more will die, even if the rate is lower than first assumed.

 

A normal flu season in the USA has about 30,000 deaths. So far Covid-19 has contributed to almost four times that many deaths in the USA.

[PrincessLuver]

20 hours ago, Fincherson said:

I think ports will have to open soon or risk the population going hungry from lack of revenue/supplies/food. 
 

There may never be a vaccine. Virus is far less deadly than first assumed. The cruise lines need to get on with things and let people decide what risks they are willing to take. 

 

Please state your source and it sounds like you are not afraid to get it either.....I guess it is OK for cruise ships to head towards ice bergs because they are not really deadly either?????

[lx200gps]

17 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I am beginning to see where some localities are discontinuing 14 day quarantine requirements and replacing it with documented negative results on a Covid-19 test taken within 72 hours before arrival.  No mention yet of cruise ships, but baby steps, baby steps.  I think Princess is beginning to feel some positivity for resumption of cruising by early next year.  They have extended the terms of Cruise With Confidence cancellation and final payment provisions to cruises until April 30, 2021.

While I tend to agree with you on the timing, I'm not understanding why many of the mainline cruise companies are actively selling cruises out of south Florida for this fall. Princess even talked us into putting down a small refundable deposit for the November 28 Eastern Caribbean trip on the Enchanted, which we wouldn't have considered had it not been for the excellent cancellation terms.

Edited June 9, 2020 by lx200gps

[npcl]

10 hours ago, dog said:

“pretty sure”???

 

okay,

 

Opening to cruise ships and will be open for how long?

 

done here

Never said anything about cruise ships, what I said was that islands would and were opening to land tourists first under strict controls. Exactly what St Lucia is doing.  Cruise ships are a ways off.   Cunard, for example, just canceled all sailings until November 1.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, lx200gps said:

While I tend to agree with you on the timing, I'm not understanding why many of the mainline cruise companies are actively selling cruises out of south Florida for this fall. Princess even talked us into putting down a small refundable deposit for the November 28 Eastern Caribbean trip on the Enchanted, which we wouldn't have considered had it not been for the excellent cancellation terms.

Because they people to continue to book and pay deposits, as well as final payments, if anyone is willing to do it.  Get the cash, delay the refund.  That is how they are trying to get past the shutdown.

[ontheweb]

30 minutes ago, npcl said:

Because they people to continue to book and pay deposits, as well as final payments, if anyone is willing to do it.  Get the cash, delay the refund.  That is how they are trying to get past the shutdown.

Are you saying they are intentionally running a Ponzi scheme?

 

[dog]

On 6/8/2020 at 10:37 AM, dog said:

I think they will open up before a vaccine. And cruisers will have to accept cancelled ports 

re: Port Re - opening is the topic I am referring to. 

[npcl]

49 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Are you saying they are intentionally running a Ponzi scheme?

 

No.  Because a Ponzi scheme pays existing investors with money received from new investors, and a cruise is not an investment. A Ponzi scheme is also illegal.

 

while ethically suspect, the cruise lines behavior is not illegal.  As long as there is some chance, however small, that a cruise might sail they can continue to sell the product. As long as they do refund, however, slow. As a former Governor of Louisiana once said about his own actions "it may not be ethical, but it is not illegal".

 

If they actually stopped putting the carrot out there, and actually refunded all of the deposits received, the cruise lines would go through a large percentage of the money they raised via stock and bond issues.  

 

What is really amazing is the people still sending in final payments on cruises where the odds of going are so small that they must be looked at through a microscope. 

 

Especially when one looks at the issues of ship locations, crew staffing, travel restrictions, etc.

 

“And in what business is there not humbug? “There’s cheating in all trades but ours,” is the prompt reply from the boot-maker with his brown paper soles, the grocer with his floury sugar and chicoried coffee, the butcher with his mysterious sausages and queer veal, the dry goods man with his “damaged goods wet at the great fire” and his “selling at a ruinous loss,” the stock-broker with his brazen assurance that your company is bankrupt and your stock not worth a cent (if he wants to buy it,) the horse jockey with his black arts and spavined brutes, the milkman with his tin aquaria, the land agent with his nice new maps and beautiful descriptions of distant scenery, the newspaper man with his “immense circulation,” the publisher with his “Great American Novel,” the city auctioneer with his “Pictures by the Old Masters”—all and every one protest each his own innocence, and warn you against the deceits of the rest. My inexperienced friend, take it for granted that they all tell the truth—about each other! and then transact your business to the best of your ability on your own judgment.”
― P.T. Barnum, The Humbugs of the World: An Account of Humbugs, Delusions, Impositions, Quackeries, Deceits and Deceivers Generally, in All Ages

 

 

[donaldsc]

On 6/8/2020 at 9:50 AM, npcl said:

As I said earlier the organizations grabbing the headlines are ones that have never taken a vaccine to market. Both seem too interested in touting their own horns so to speak. The ethics of Moderna releasing limited news just before doing a stock offering was certainly questionable.

 

Oxford has linked up with AstraZeneca which has the experience and the manufacturing capability, though I am not sure how well their vaccine will turn out.

 

Merck, has been relatively quiet, has made reasonable estimates, and has both the track record and the manufacturing capability.

 

Remdesivir is a marginal drug at best.  It has limited efficacy. Is an infusion product with its own side effect profile.  It is difficult to manufacture and cannot be easily ramped up.  Get anything else available as a therapeutic and Remdesivir will pretty much vanish.

 

Since you seem to know more about this than most of us, I would like to ask you a question. Assume that they do develop a good vaccine and also assume that the cruise lines decide to require that anyone who boards a ship be vaccinated.  We also know that there will be people who check the "yes" box where the questionnaire asks "have you been vaccinated against covid" even if they had not actually been vaccinated.    If you gave everyone one of those fast antibody tests at boarding, would this determine if they were lying about being vaccinated? 

 

The same problem would occur if a country or even a location in the US or a business-instituted  vaccine requirement so this question has numerous implications.

 

DON

[caribill]

19 minutes ago, donaldsc said:

 Assume that they do develop a good vaccine and also assume that the cruise lines decide to require that anyone who boards a ship be vaccinated.  We also know that there will be people who check the "yes" box where the questionnaire asks "have you been vaccinated against covid" even if they had not actually been vaccinated.  Those getting a Yellow Fever vaccination get a WHO designed card that has the vaccination added to it as proof to present when needed. There could be a requirement to have any Covid-19 vaccination info added to that card. I certainly would not take a passenger's check mark on a form as proof he/she had received the vaccination.

 

 If you gave everyone one of those fast antibody tests at boarding, would this determine if they were lying about being vaccinated?  If an accurate antibody test was really available and could give results in a few minutes, it would prove a person had the antibodies, but could not (at least with known technology) tell if the antibodies came from a vaccine or from once having been infected. The effectiveness of antibodies protecting against a future infection is assumed by many, but has not been determined yet.

 

 

 

[Daniel A]

7 hours ago, donaldsc said:

If you gave everyone one of those fast antibody tests at boarding, would this determine if they were lying about being vaccinated? 

 

After putting up thousands for a cruise, I don't want to be turned away because of a false negative.  If they were conducting antibody tests for thousands of passengers at embarkation, it would probably take days to do the embarkation.

 

I don't know if we will still be using any WHO documents anymore since the US severed ties with WHO.  I still like the idea of adding vaccination endorsements to our passports.  I know there are some who say that will never happen but I do think there is going to be a need for reliable documentation of immunity.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Daniel A

[JudithLynne]

We are scheduled on a cruise next May. If there is a vaccination prior to that, my DH and I will get it.  We will also have a copy of all of our inoculations from our pharmacy to show proof if need be.

[Potstech]

So if the US requires it to be posted on a passport what happens if other countries decide they do not want to participate in this requirement. Are they going to tell passengers and travelers from those countries that they can not enter?  What is to prevent other countries from coming up with their own individual documentation and requirements that would prevent American passport holders form entering that country. This is an issue that is going to require a lot more than a desire on a web forum to be worked out. The US can not just demand all comply with them on a world wide basis. Despite what some think.

[npcl]

17 hours ago, donaldsc said:

 

Since you seem to know more about this than most of us, I would like to ask you a question. Assume that they do develop a good vaccine and also assume that the cruise lines decide to require that anyone who boards a ship be vaccinated.  We also know that there will be people who check the "yes" box where the questionnaire asks "have you been vaccinated against covid" even if they had not actually been vaccinated.    If you gave everyone one of those fast antibody tests at boarding, would this determine if they were lying about being vaccinated? 

 

The same problem would occur if a country or even a location in the US or a business-instituted  vaccine requirement so this question has numerous implications.

 

DON

If you make the assumption that the antibodies generated by the illness are the same as the antibodies generated by the vaccine, as far as the test is concerned, then a negative result could be that either 1. they did not take the vaccine or 2. It did not work on them.  Would not expect the cruise lines to do tests, if they are requiring passengers to be vaccinated because it would cost them a fair amount of money and would be very time consuming. I would expect that they would require documentation of the vaccination.

 

Keep in mind in those cases where proof of vaccination was required by ports(measles in some south pacific locations last year for example), actual proof of vaccination was required, unless the person was old enough that they predated the vaccine and then it was assumed that they were exposed naturally)

Edited June 10, 2020 by npcl

[Potstech]

25 minutes ago, npcl said:

If you make the assumption that the antibodies generated by the illness are the same as the antibodies generated by the vaccine, as far as the test is concerned, then a negative result could be that either 1. they did not take the vaccine or 2. It did not work on them.  Would not expect the cruise lines to do tests, if they are requiring passengers to be vaccinated because it would cost them a fair amount of money and would be very time consuming. I would expect that they would require documentation of the vaccination.

 

Keep in mind in those cases where proof of vaccination was required by ports(measles in some south pacific locations last year for example), actual proof of vaccination was required, unless the person was old enough that they predated the vaccine and then it was assumed that they were exposed naturally)

Or the test could be faulty which seems to be happening more than people are told.

[USCcruisecrazy]

After reading through this thread, it seemed some folks beleive the cruise industry has little impact on ports, so those ports don't necessarily need to get back to business as usual.  So, I looked up some interesting stats:  European ports in 2017 (most recent numbers for an entire calendar year I could find) brought in nearly 50 billion Euros from the cruise industry.  The cruise industry was responsible for over 400,000 jobs.  I'm guesing those people believe the ports opening up are more critical than perhaps the average cruiser believes.  A single call of a ship in the Caribbean (used 4000 passenger average) generated over $675,000 of revenue (passenger spending, crew spending, and cruise line spending).  Sounds like a major impact for the Caribbean countries that are supported by the cruise lines.  Just food for thought!!

[npcl]

36 minutes ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

After reading through this thread, it seemed some folks beleive the cruise industry has little impact on ports, so those ports don't necessarily need to get back to business as usual.  So, I looked up some interesting stats:  European ports in 2017 (most recent numbers for an entire calendar year I could find) brought in nearly 50 billion Euros from the cruise industry.  The cruise industry was responsible for over 400,000 jobs.  I'm guesing those people believe the ports opening up are more critical than perhaps the average cruiser believes.  A single call of a ship in the Caribbean (used 4000 passenger average) generated over $675,000 of revenue (passenger spending, crew spending, and cruise line spending).  Sounds like a major impact for the Caribbean countries that are supported by the cruise lines.  Just food for thought!!

Cruise ships have an impact, but is that impact worth the risk?

 

You are starting to see some islands open up for tourism, but it is land based.  People that come, stay at resorts, eat in restaurants, etc.  They generate far more revenue per person than does cruise passengers.  A lot of the money that cruise passengers spend go to the cruise line, or businesses that are foreign owned.  How many times have you gotten off of a ship in a Caribbean port and see the same jewelry stores that you saw at the last port or for that matter in Alaska. Land based tourists have a far better benefit/risk ratio.

 

As they open up we are starting to see a similar set of requirements.  The major one being a negative test taken within 72 hours of arrival. Will be interesting to see when they do allow cruise ships if they require every one on the ship to also have taken and gotten a negative test result.  Will passenger be willing to take those tests at their own expense.   Who will eat the cost of travel expenses and fares in case of a positive test.  Some islands are also requiring all travelers to have COVID-19 medical insurance.

 

 

[AnyMajorCruiseDude]

There are a few here who represent themselves as experts in medical and financial issues, and offer their "informed" opinions of what is happening and what to expect next.  However, no one really knows, and only time will tell.  Everyone needs to have common sense and make their own decisions based on their own situation an research.  Many posters just like to blow not air to feel more self important.  I speak with my own doctors who can make recommendations based on my situation.

I have 8 Cruises booked for 2021 based on what I have been told and how I interpret it.

[Potstech]

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[RocketMan275]

On 6/5/2020 at 2:22 PM, Daniel A said:

I personally think most (not all) cruisers are likely to wait until there is an effective vaccine available and there are ports to sail to and assurances that they won't be quarantined on the ship because one crew member/passenger has a cough...

We intend to wait until these social distancing and mask wearing protocols are no longer in place.

[pcur]

Here's our plan (and hope):

 

We get vaccines sometime after the first of 2021.  We sail in April 2021 WITH masks.  We will assume not everyone has a vaccine.  I will get a antibiotic prescription for both of us to take with us, and a refill on my Ventolin.  This is because I got pneumonia (COVID19????) on our cruises this past Jan/Feb out of New Orleans over Chinese New Year.

 

Our normal routine is sort of social distancing already:  we don't like the pool decks on board ships, and prefer to sit out on deck elsewhere or read in a mostly empty lounge.  We also don't go to the live entertainment, except to listen to live piano or string ensembles.  

 

Our hope is Princess will have the social distancing thing in place by April 2021.  We'll have to see what they set up for eating venues.  We can always get our food to take to outside seating, if needed.

Edited June 17, 2020 by pcur