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Are you afraid of RCI going belly up?


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With the latest cruise cancellations and other wild speculations that cruising won't start until late 2021.
And this story about "Royal Caribbean’s payment vendor Wirecard reports $2.1 billion missing cash"

What is the prospect of RCI going bankrupt and or shutting down and us losing out on our money.

Do you take the refund or roll the dice with FCC or L&S?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article243645002.html

 

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No, the only casualty most likely will be NCL. they had cash flow issues prior to this outbreak.  They probably will be bought out in a hostile takeover.  Everyone else has the cash to keep every third light on for 12-18 months.  

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IMO - There's too much upside for Royal post-CV19.  That's why they are able to secure the loans and credit they have. 

 

They may have to go the route of bankruptcy as a means to renegotiate with certain creditors.  That's sounds bad and a company declaring bankruptcy isn't fantastic but let's face it, most U.S. airlines have done it at least once and many are still around.  These include American, Delta, United, Frontier and many others.   

 

For guests bankruptcy has less ramifications compared to investors.  I've have booked cruises in the double digits with Royal and I'm not too concerned. 

 

The only unknown is the impact from U.S. states opening too soon and too quickly.  As we see some states spiking up dramatically that could cause the CDC to lock out the cruise industry for an extended timeframe.  Had all states followed the original phased CDC process cruising might have come back this summer.  Now we'll be lucky for it to occur this year.  If the cruise industry starts to see failures we've got ourselves to blame.

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1 minute ago, twangster said:

The only unknown is the impact from U.S. states opening too soon and too quickly.  As we see some states spiking up dramatically that could cause the CDC to lock out the cruise industry for an extended timeframe.  Had all states followed the original phased CDC process cruising might have come back this summer.  Now we'll be lucky for it to occur this year.  If the cruise industry starts to see failures we've got ourselves to blame.

That is my fear.

We have so royally screwed this reopening that it very possibly may have a ripple effect on many industries, including the cruise industry.

The template for dealing with this was not set in stone, but the indications of the best approach was fairly obvious.

I know many speak of New Zealand and Australia but their situations are unique being two island nations that could quickly avoid external contact.  I see a much better example in Vietnam, which shares a 1000 mile border with China,  and to date has experienced less than 350 cases and ZERO deaths.  Required face covering very early. Social distancing monitored and required.

And it worked.  They started reopening on April 23rd.  Domestic tourism is back.  Domestic airline, bus and train travel in operation. 

Wear your mask.  Maintain your distance.  It is not rocket science.

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We visited Vietnam a few years ago. Found the people to be friendly, kind and generous.  For a poor country the people are very respectful of those visiting their country.  i can see how they easily adapted and were able to fight off covid. 

 

The world can learn from them. They just go with the flow. and they got it right: We as a country are too good to listen to better judgement.  We will have to go back into lockdown again.  

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38 minutes ago, twangster said:

Had all states followed the original phased CDC process cruising might have come back this summer.  Now we'll be lucky for it to occur this year.  If the cruise industry starts to see failures we've got ourselves to blame.

I couldn't agree more @twangster. All the speculation and Monday morning quarterbacking does no good. Your spot on assessment of these simple facts are the root cause.

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27 minutes ago, joelheather said:

We visited Vietnam a few years ago. Found the people to be friendly, kind and generous.  For a poor country the people are very respectful of those visiting their country.  i can see how they easily adapted and were able to fight off covid. 

 

The world can learn from them. They just go with the flow. and they got it right: We as a country are too good to listen to better judgement.  We will have to go back into lockdown again.  

True.  It is an amazing country.  We've been there I guess about a dozen times.  The level of entrepreneurship is amazing.  If you drive the roads in the cities and villages you will see more small businesses in a couple of hours than you will see in the US in most cities in a month. 

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2 hours ago, joelheather said:

No, the only casualty most likely will be NCL. they had cash flow issues prior to this outbreak.  They probably will be bought out in a hostile takeover.  Everyone else has the cash to keep every third light on for 12-18 months.  

And yet this happened, which is reported to keep the company afloat (sorry) until summer next year.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22898-norwegian-raises-2-billion-over-1-year-of-cash-if-needed.html#:~:text=Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings today,global pandemic on the company.

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1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

That is my fear.

We have so royally screwed this reopening that it very possibly may have a ripple effect on many industries, including the cruise industry.

The template for dealing with this was not set in stone, but the indications of the best approach was fairly obvious.

I know many speak of New Zealand and Australia but their situations are unique being two island nations that could quickly avoid external contact.  I see a much better example in Vietnam, which shares a 1000 mile border with China,  and to date has experienced less than 350 cases and ZERO deaths.  Required face covering very early. Social distancing monitored and required.

And it worked.  They started reopening on April 23rd.  Domestic tourism is back.  Domestic airline, bus and train travel in operation. 

Wear your mask.  Maintain your distance.  It is not rocket science.

 

If you have been to Vietnam as much as you say, you would have noticed they wear masks even when there is no pandemic.  I think it is a vanity thing to keep their faces from tanning and to keep them as white as possible.  Not to mention long sleeves, gloves, hats, pants, when it is so hot there that I can barely stand in the street next to them.  

 

I do not know how we fought a war there.  Good lord it is hot.

 

jc

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1 minute ago, xpcdoojk said:

 

If you have been to Vietnam as much as you say, you would have noticed they wear masks even when there is no pandemic.  I think it is a vanity thing to keep their faces from tanning and to keep them as white as possible.  Not to mention long sleeves, gloves, hats, pants, when it is so hot there that I can barely stand in the street next to them.  

 

I do not know how we fought a war there.  Good lord it is hot.

 

jc

Masks are for disease and smog largely. But the point is they were mandated in January. And it worked. 

And only the south is really hot. It gets pretty cold in Hanoi in the winter. 

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16 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

 

If you have been to Vietnam as much as you say, you would have noticed they wear masks even when there is no pandemic.  I think it is a vanity thing to keep their faces from tanning and to keep them as white as possible.  Not to mention long sleeves, gloves, hats, pants, when it is so hot there that I can barely stand in the street next to them.  

 

I do not know how we fought a war there.  Good lord it is hot.

 

jc

And wet. 
 

M8

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Long term is more concerning to me than the next 12 months. Most of the major cruise lines have raised enjoy cash to survive 12+ months. The problem comes in the following years when the payments on much of the debt start coming due. If revenues don’t recover quickly, they will struggle to make the debt payments and may not be in a position to refinance or issue new debt.

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Cruise lines cash flow situation seems analogous to Phileas Fogg (the David Niven version)  furiously burning the furniture for firewood as he raced across the Atlantic.  He made it, just, but only the bare skeleton of his ship remained.  For cruise lines land is nowhere in sight and their supply of furniture (borrowing ability) is dwindling.  At present they are just shoveling money into the furnace.

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4 hours ago, JoeFan said:

With the latest cruise cancellations and other wild speculations that cruising won't start until late 2021.
And this story about "Royal Caribbean’s payment vendor Wirecard reports $2.1 billion missing cash"

What is the prospect of RCI going bankrupt and or shutting down and us losing out on our money.

Do you take the refund or roll the dice with FCC or L&S?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article243645002.html

 

Nope, Royal isnt going anywhere. Now NCL, they better hope doesnt last too long...

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1 hour ago, xpcdoojk said:

So, the Vietnamese love to tan?

 

So many experts on the internet.

 

Good lord

 

jc

Responses are usually better and more interesting then some original topic's...

Edited by ONECRUISER
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3 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

You lucked out. All I rememberer is rain, rain, rain and then it would really rain. 5 days on the golf course in  vung tau and nothing but rain.....

You gotta avoid the rainy season.  

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4 hours ago, twangster said:

The only unknown is the impact from U.S. states opening too soon and too quickly.  As we see some states spiking up dramatically that could cause the CDC to lock out the cruise industry for an extended timeframe.  Had all states followed the original phased CDC process cruising might have come back this summer.  Now we'll be lucky for it to occur this year.  If the cruise industry starts to see failures we've got ourselves to blame.

Reopening is not causing the spikes. The blatant disregard of mask and social distancing is causing the spikes. A couple of weeks ago, we were at a reopened resort. While people were constantly reminded to wear masks, most didn't. And those "best buddies" that were doing virtual happy hours for the past three months were drunk and hugging each other, sharing whatever they brought with themselves. It was pathetic. 

 

RCI won't go "belly-up". But how fast they reopen will be totally dependent upon the passengers on the initial cruises. And if they behave like those on our flights and at the resort, then opening will be veeeerrrrryyy slow. 

Edited by BirdTravels
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Wirecard is missing the money, not RCI.  
I was gonna say the way I read it is it really has nothing to do with Royal Caribbean. It's just a payment processing company and I believe the CEO just left the company today. Sounds like some shady stuff going on there but I don't think it has anything to do with Royal Caribbean.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, JAMESCC said:

I was gonna say the way I read it is it really has nothing to do with Royal Caribbean. It's just a payment processing company and I believe the CEO just left the company today. Sounds like some shady stuff going on there but I don't think it has anything to do with Royal Caribbean.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
 

As I said on another post, either it's a simple mistake or someone is living it up in the Cayman's.  I doubt it was a simple mistake, but not sure how that much money goes missing with all the safeguards they'd have to have on computer systems.  

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