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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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18 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

That may or may not be true in the US, but bear in mind that there were only 13 countries in the world that allowed pharmacists to give vaccinations as of 2017, although that number may have since increased, and not all jurisdictions within all of these countries allow pharmacists to administer vaccines.

Wow, that could definitely be an issue in those countries where only a select few are authorized to give a vaccine. But that definitely isn't the case in the US. Can pharmacists in Canada give vaccines?

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While I hope that an effective Vaccine can be found, I'm not sure the world can tie our ongoing responses to a vaccine. There may never be one. We need to know more about how the virus is transmitted and develop effective mitigation measures and treatments in tandem with the mountains of work being done to develop the vaccine. Those who are saying they aren't going anywhere or doing anything without a vaccine may be staying home for the rest of their lives. Then of course there will be those for whom the vaccine will be ineffective, and those who refuse the vaccine. I won't get started on the anti--vaxxers, it will just get me angry.

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34 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Wow, that could definitely be an issue in those countries where only a select few are authorized to give a vaccine. But that definitely isn't the case in the US. Can pharmacists in Canada give vaccines?

Yes. Each province and territory has its own regulations, including what vaccination they are allowed to administer and the minimum age of patients. I believe all can give flu vaccines, and I would think that they'd be included in the program for the coronavirus once the vaccine is approved in Canada.

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4 hours ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

While I agree that 1st responders and those in senior adult care facilities will undoubtedly be the first to receive vaccines, I seriously doubt that it will take at least two years to provide vaccines to anyone that wishes them.

 

As an example AstraZenica announced last May that they had already signed agreements to produce 400 million doses with initial deliveries in September 2020.  They also announced that they had secured manufacturing capacity to produce "one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021" and that they had received support of more than $1 billion from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) for the development, production and delivery of the vaccine, starting in the fall.  My guess is that other vaccine developers are doing something similar - producing mass quantities of the proposed vaccine prior to its approval.

 

So if and when a vaccine is approved, it will very likely be made available to most that wish to take advantage of it in a matter of months rather than years.

I am cautiously optimistic, but what if the AZ vaccine is the only one available? And what if it takes 2 doses (a very realistic possibility)? I think we will be over the worst of it by my May 2021 cruise, but who knows?

Just read that the CEO of Carnival said they didn’t expect to be back to full cruising until 2022...that seems realistic, but I’m not sure exactly what he meant.  The May 2021 cruise goes to 7 Caribbean ports, what are the chance of making all 7...even without Covid?

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9 hours ago, cangelmd said:

I am cautiously optimistic, but what if the AZ vaccine is the only one available? And what if it takes 2 doses (a very realistic possibility)? I think we will be over the worst of it by my May 2021 cruise, but who knows?

Just read that the CEO of Carnival said they didn’t expect to be back to full cruising until 2022...that seems realistic, but I’m not sure exactly what he meant.  The May 2021 cruise goes to 7 Caribbean ports, what are the chance of making all 7...even without Covid?

IF the cruise even goes, especially out of a Florida port, you would be fortunate to stop in 3 foreign ports.  They do not adhere to US direction as non-US entities.  Many keep "forgetting" that these countries have their own policies, and especially their own laws and concerns for their citizens.  Plus places like St Maartin/Maarten operate under Dutch and French (EU) policies.  Even the "private islands" are on lands belonging to independent countries.

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10 hours ago, cangelmd said:

I am cautiously optimistic, but what if the AZ vaccine is the only one available? And what if it takes 2 doses (a very realistic possibility)? I think we will be over the worst of it by my May 2021 cruise, but who knows?

Just read that the CEO of Carnival said they didn’t expect to be back to full cruising until 2022...that seems realistic, but I’m not sure exactly what he meant.  The May 2021 cruise goes to 7 Caribbean ports, what are the chance of making all 7...even without Covid?

He probably meant it's going to be a long time before every ship is sailing every itinerary.  Even once a few ships start sailing there will be waves of cancellations for the ones not going on their scheduled intin's.  

 

A long 7 port cruise in May 2021?  It MAY sail.  If it does, I'll predict somewhere from 1-7 ports.  Bring lots of masks🙂

 

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16 hours ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

As an example AstraZenica announced last May that they had already signed agreements to produce 400 million doses with initial deliveries in September 2020.  They also announced that they had secured manufacturing capacity to produce "one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021"

 

Outstanding; since there's an estimated 7.6B in the world, I hope other companies join in.

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15 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Another factor to take into consideration when forecasting the time that will be required to vaccinate any significant number of people are the human resources required to actually administer the vaccine. If healthcare workers continue to be pushed to their limits dealing with infected patients,  even without a potential double whammy of a second wave during flu season, the problem may not be a lack of vaccine but a lack of qualified people to give the vaccinations. 

Pharmacies.  Supermarkets with Pharmacies. Public vaccine events.  Trained volunteers.  Lots of opportunities.  Also at least right now, in most places in the world, and yes even most places in the US (outside several well known states), healthcare workers are currently not being pushed to their limits with COVID patients.  

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23 hours ago, edgekid said:

I agree with a mandated vaccine at least as it pertains to cruising... However my possible scenario is a little different.. regardless of whether we get a vaccine or not if we cruise and ONE person gets the virus aren't we in the same exact situation where all passengers will be quarantined? We have a cruise booked for September 2021 and honestly I can't see any scenario where we will be 100% comfortable regarding a possible quarantine situation.

Really hope I'm wrong about that.

 

 

Assuming there is a vaccine-----If people are required to be vaccinated before boarding and there is a break-through case on board, it will not put the whole ship at risk.  It can be handled just like any other illness.  If it is a difficult case then medi-vac is possible.

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19 hours ago, Fogfog said:

Surprising

Had not heard anything about MMR vaccine being of any help re covid

 

No interest in vaccine at this time.

 

According to Mayo MDs we spoke with-- they aren't even excited about the "antibodies" testing as  being reliable

...and there is no knowledge of "for how long" or if those antibodies really do protect one.

 

I have wondered if those who normally don't get a flu vaccine (or the pneumonia one if one is age-eligible) will get them. Less than half those who can get a flu vax do so

Have wondered how many get the shingles vax

There have been some reports and, speculation about MMR, also about BCG. BCG is a vaccine for TB that is used in countries with higher TB incidence. Some early data suggests severe Covid may be less common in people who get BCG, maybe general increase in immunity and some overlap. Same thought process with MMR.

 

As for tests, once there is a vaccine and we know what Abs are produced, it’s a relatively easy matter to make a test to measure those specifically. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to know that AZ has a non-commercial test tailored to the study, to help show there’s a humoral response.

But if the response is all cell mediated, even to the vaccine, then might never have a test.

 

The reason the Mayo docs are less enthusiastic about current testing is more complicated. I’m ,not enthusiastic either, and we offer the test. It is only good if positive and it doesn’t seem to remain positive in many people. It is doing very good work identifying blood donors who can donate plasma, it may be saving lives doing that 

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15 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Pharmacies.  Supermarkets with Pharmacies. Public vaccine events.  Trained volunteers.  Lots of opportunities.  Also at least right now, in most places in the world, and yes even most places in the US (outside several well known states), healthcare workers are currently not being pushed to their limits with COVID patients.  

Agree completely, even in TX and FL there are plenty of people to get vaccinations done if vaccines existed. I’m concerned a bit about the logistics of getting the vaccine delivered and parceled out, that hasn’t been well done with testing materials and supplies.

Im very worried about people not taking it.

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24 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Pharmacies.  Supermarkets with Pharmacies. Public vaccine events.  Trained volunteers.  Lots of opportunities. 

US yes.  Not so sure about the rest of the world.

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6 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Agree completely, even in TX and FL there are plenty of people to get vaccinations done if vaccines existed. I’m concerned a bit about the logistics of getting the vaccine delivered and parceled out, that hasn’t been well done with testing materials and supplies.

I'm very worried about people not taking it.

Now, I'm just a retired computer guy with a pick-your-own farm who sees a lot of folks wearing masks when they come to pick berries. But my guess is with all the focus COVID has received worldwide these past several months, there will hopefully be a significant percentage of folks, at least for the first year once it's made available in their area, lining up to get the vaccine. But, it's just a guess. 

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8 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Now, I'm just a retired computer guy with a pick-your-own farm who sees a lot of folks wearing masks when they come to pick berries. But my guess is with all the focus COVID has received worldwide these past several months, there will hopefully be a significant percentage of folks, at least for the first year once it's made available in their area, lining up to get the vaccine. But, it's just a guess. 

Wearing a mask, outside in the South in the summer, not so much fun...I don’t see the point. 

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To me, it’s all about the 14 day quarantine. Nobody, not the cdc, cruiselines, the state of Florida or us, the cruisers want to deal with that.

 

There might be some short, proof of concept cruises, with a quarantine, or testing could be available to reduce that quarantine time, but I don’t really think so. Remember the ship will have to be quarantined too.

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1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Wearing a mask, outside in the South in the summer, not so much fun...I don’t see the point. 

Which is exactly why cases continue to skyrocket, too many people not understanding how mask help to curtail the spread of the virus.

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52 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

To me, it’s all about the 14 day quarantine. Nobody, not the cdc, cruiselines, the state of Florida or us, the cruisers want to deal with that.

 

There might be some short, proof of concept cruises, with a quarantine, or testing could be available to reduce that quarantine time, but I don’t really think so. Remember the ship will have to be quarantined too.

 

Quarantine sounds like a great idea the reality is its difficult.  First you need enforcers, you then need food delivery and cleaning crews.

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1 hour ago, PTC DAWG said:

Wearing a mask, outside in the South in the summer, not so much fun...I don’t see the point. 

The point is that this is a "pick your own" farm where people may be in somewhat close proximity.  And yes, even though the transmission rates are likely lower outside (although there is no definitive evidence) people still sneeze, cough and yell outside.  A half ounce mask is not like you are dragging around a hazmat suit.  I live in the south and it is summer and you know what?  I decided that it isn't a big deal.  At all.

So I guess that's the point.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Wearing a mask, outside in the South in the summer, not so much fun...I don’t see the point. 

What's interesting is that our U-Pick opened up the first of June and about 40-50% were wearing masks, even though we had Social Distancing guidelines posted at the entrance and on our FB page which included a recommendation to wear a mask. By the first week in July about 80% were wearing masks. With the recent resurgence of new cases, I guess folks are starting to pay a little more attention and/or it's just becoming a habit. 

 

Now, once out in the field where we have about 500 blueberry plants and plenty of room to spread out, I'm sure most folks took off their masks for comfort sake as well as it's hard to "sample the fruit" with them on. But we were very appreciative that most folks were wearing masks at the entrance since we were the ones being behind the counter also wearing a mask.

 

The point being either you or me could be asymptomatic. So if both of us in close proximity are wearing a mask, then the chances of either of us spreading COVID to the other is much less. Trust me, we all know it's a pain, but what other options do we have until a viable vaccine is available?

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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Vaccine will not make you worry at all cause no matter where you go and what you do, if you fall ill you will know that there is an antidote that will help you recover. In this matter its always better to know and understand that there is a vaccine around 

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On 7/11/2020 at 6:40 AM, TeeRick said:

Yes interesting info but hard to interpret- maybe another one of those things that will be known after some period of time. 

For what it is worth:  China has almost no Rh negative blood type. My family are all Rh negative and when we lived in Singapore, we were asked to be on-call by the local hospital in case a European/ American needed blood. They didn’t have any Rh negative blood in their blood bank. 

 

This article shows the distribution by country

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_type_distribution_by_country

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On 7/11/2020 at 6:37 AM, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

I wish there is more focus on blood types as the few studies studies seem to suggest that those with A blood types have the worst symptoms while those with O blood types seems to have the least symptoms.  B tends to be neutral and AB, which is the most rare, greatly varies by study.  No study has pointed out whether the blood type is negative or positive if that makes any difference.

I meant to attach this quote. Maybe that makes more sense to my comment about Rh negative blood. 

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5 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Wearing a mask, outside in the South in the summer, not so much fun...I don’t see the point. 

Getting the Corona virus is not “ so much fun” either. It’s  not all about YOU and how much FUN you are having. 
Wearing a mask 😷 protects those around you when you are not able to keep a safe distance (6 ft). You never know if you are infected and are asymptomatic. 
It also protects YOU from touching your nose and mouth while you are wearing the mask. You may have touched a surface (a door handle, etc) that has the virus on it and if you then rub your nose,  you are self inoculating. 

Consider tropical countries like Singapore ( Hot and Humid year round), where the population has adjusted  to wearing masks.  They have no shortage of FUN and have kept Coronavirus numbers down. 

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On 7/11/2020 at 1:02 PM, Fogfog said:

Surprising

Had not heard anything about MMR vaccine being of any help re covid

 

No interest in vaccine at this time.

 

According to Mayo MDs we spoke with-- they aren't even excited about the "antibodies" testing as  being reliable

...and there is no knowledge of "for how long" or if those antibodies really do protect one.

 

I have wondered if those who normally don't get a flu vaccine (or the pneumonia one if one is age-eligible) will get them. Less than half those who can get a flu vax do so

Have wondered how many get the shingles vax

 

I cannot get a flu vaccine because it makes me violently ill.  I've never had need for a pneumonia or shingles vaccine, at least not yet.

 

With that said, I am definitely getting the Covid vaccine when it becomes available. 

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20 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Wow, that could definitely be an issue in those countries where only a select few are authorized to give a vaccine. But that definitely isn't the case in the US. Can pharmacists in Canada give vaccines?

Yes. Pharmacies here in Canada give annual flu vaccines and they are free, and COVID19  tests are free too but only at testing centres.

We miss cruising but will not cruise again until we are satisfied it is safe and that probably means until  there is a vaccine.

We doubt we will be travelling out of a Florida port for some time as the there seems to be a total disregard for containing the virus there. It seems that many are not prepared to make small personal sacrifices for a greater good.

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