A ray of hope from Alaska?

[kangforpres]

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Alaska-Updates-State-Lifts-COVID-19-Testing-Requirement-Cruise-Lines-Stop-Bookings

 

No more Covid-19 negative tests needed to visit the 49th State.

 

I'm hoping if Canada doesn't change it's "no-sail" date then Congress will pass something to amend the PSVA on a temporary basis. It is a law passed by Congress it can be changed by Congress, I'm talking about granted "exemptions" that are allowed in the current language. They could instead suspend it for a period of 6 months or so.

 

-Paul

[CruiserBruce]

And we are off....again...

[Essiesmom]

1 hour ago, kangforpres said:

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Alaska-Updates-State-Lifts-COVID-19-Testing-Requirement-Cruise-Lines-Stop-Bookings

 

No more Covid-19 negative tests needed to visit the 49th State.

 

I'm hoping if Canada doesn't change it's "no-sail" date then Congress will pass something to amend the PSVA on a temporary basis. It is a law passed by Congress it can be changed by Congress, I'm talking about granted "exemptions" that are allowed in the current language. They could instead suspend it for a period of 6 months or so.

 

-Paul

Have you not read any of the many threads suggesting this?  Ain’t gonna happen.  EM

[kangforpres]

Eissiesmom-  CC threads are just opinions of members,  I try to form my opinions based on actual evidence like this story from Travel Weekly

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Biden-Congress-urged-to-grant-an-exception-for-Alaska-cruising

[Essiesmom]

22 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

Eissiesmom-  CC threads are just opinions of members,  I try to form my opinions based on actual evidence like this story from Travel Weekly

 

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Biden-Congress-urged-to-grant-an-exception-for-Alaska-cruising

And that has all been discussed on the other threads.

[CruiserBruce]

And this is the final sentence of the article:

 

The Federal Maritime Commission said that Sola's comments are his own and do not necessarily represent the position of the commission.

 

Gee, sounds like opinion to me...

[KirkNC]

To answer the question of the thread title, no, this is not a ray of hope for the cruise industry other then anyone who utilizes their land tours only.   It may help encourage visitors to fly in or take the ferry.  We had considered visiting via air but stopped looking when the test requirements were in place.  If you are willing to get there, it could be a good time to visit with smaller crowds.  

Edited February 18, 2021 by KirkNC

[oaktreerb]

3 hours ago, kangforpres said:

https://www.travelmarketreport.com/articles/Alaska-Updates-State-Lifts-COVID-19-Testing-Requirement-Cruise-Lines-Stop-Bookings

 

No more Covid-19 negative tests needed to visit the 49th State.

 

I'm hoping if Canada doesn't change it's "no-sail" date then Congress will pass something to amend the PSVA on a temporary basis. It is a law passed by Congress it can be changed by Congress, I'm talking about granted "exemptions" that are allowed in the current language. They could instead suspend it for a period of 6 months or so.

 

-Paul

Thanks for posting that Alaska is no longer requiring Covid-19 testing.  The Alaska cruise season has not officially been cancelled yet.  That’s good enough news for now.   

[taxmantoo]

58 minutes ago, oaktreerb said:

Thanks for posting that Alaska is no longer requiring Covid-19 testing.  The Alaska cruise season has not officially been cancelled yet.  That’s good enough news for now.   

Of course it hasn't been cancelled...that would mean handing out refunds and we all know the speed at which cruise lines want to do that 😉  They are all at this time "exploring their options" which is another term for "What the f... do we do now ? " 

Edited February 18, 2021 by taxmantoo

[drowelf]

1 hour ago, oaktreerb said:

Thanks for posting that Alaska is no longer requiring Covid-19 testing.  The Alaska cruise season has not officially been cancelled yet.  That’s good enough news for now.   

Its just a matter of time until that happens. Final payments have to be coming soon for first cruises and Canada is not going to rescind their restrictions anytime soon. Folks advocating for PSVA Waivers from Congress are just dreaming. Congress has many more important things to take care of then modifying a law that has major benefits to Corporations that pay little or no US Taxes. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by drowelf

[oaktreerb]

36 minutes ago, taxmantoo said:

Of course it hasn't been cancelled...that would mean handing out refunds and we all know the speed at which cruise lines want to do that 😉  They are all at this time "exploring their options" which is another term for "What the f... do we do now ? " 

Lots of business decisions to make on all sides as we explore our options😷🙏🛳

[Balliett]

Well, here's another ray of hope.  Opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal today.  The author, a research physician, makes a good case.

We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April

Covid cases have dropped 77% in six weeks. Experts should level with the public about the good news.

 

 

By Marty Makary

Feb. 18, 2021 12:35 pm ET

 

To make my point:  Less virus, including in Canada, more chance of cruises.   

 

[LocoLoco1]

I agree. The re-crewing and re-booking etc. won’t happen overnight, however.  I am still booked late Aug/early Sept per a HAL E-mail today. 

[groundloop]

21 hours ago, kangforpres said:

.....then Congress will pass something to amend the PSVA on a temporary basis......

Congress has much bigger worries right now than making special exceptions for a small group of us who want to vacation again.  I'm pretty confident that we'll be back to somewhat normal by the end of this year now that vaccinations are becoming widely available.

[kangforpres]

Just a couple of more thoughts:

 

1. Vaccines shipments to double by next week, Dr. Fauci said by April the situation maybe reversed, More supply than demand.

2. Alaska is leading the entire US in vaccinations when counted as % of population.

3. How is the vaccine situation in Canada going? particularly in BC?

4. If cruise lines do start cancelling and have to start issuing refunds for all of the canceled Alaska 2021 cruises they may very well run out of operating capital.

 

 

This makes me think a partial Alaska season will happen this year.

Edited February 19, 2021 by kangforpres

[Sea42]

10 hours ago, Balliett said:

Well, here's another ray of hope.  Opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal today.  The author, a research physician, makes a good case.

Dr Makary is a gastrointestinal and oncology surgeon at Johns Hopkins, where he also teaches public health policy. His research does include a wide range of topics, mostly health care costs and physician practices but communicable diseases nor immunology are among his field of expertise.

https://www.martymd.com/

[wolfie11]

18 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

 

This makes me think a partial Alaska season will happen this year.

Even if a miracle happens and cruise ships are allowed to sail at all this summer, unless the cruises can get started by July, it's unlikely there will be any Alaska season this year.  It would be extremely difficult to get shore-related activities up and running for a 10-week Alaska season.  Thousands of people have to be hired and trained.  Buses, aircraft, boats, and other transportation have to be repositioned and ready to go.  Facilities have to be opened up and staffed.  I can't see that happening for a short season.  The large majority of workers come from Outside and are probably not willing to fly to and from Alaska and work for a minimum wage for 8-10 weeks.  Most of these people are hired in January or February and show up in early to mid-April.  Glacier Bay?  Nope.  Park regulations state that a park ranger must be on a ship when it's in Glacier Bay.  They're not hiring any park rangers this year.  White Pass Railroad?  They just laid off 27 workers.  It simply wouldn't be worth it economically for Alaska to mobilize for a shortened season.

[CruiserBruce]

39 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

Just a couple of more thoughts:

 

1. Vaccines shipments to double by next week, Dr. Fauci said by April the situation maybe reversed, More supply than demand.

 

4. If cruise lines do start cancelling and have to start issuing refunds for all of the canceled Alaska 2021 cruises they may very well run out of operating capital.

 

Not sure what your sources are on these two points. The White House announced an increase to 13.5 million doses for next week, up from 11 million last week. By my math, that's not doubling. That doesn't count the complexities of the Midwest cold and transport. What Fauci did say is we need to go double time to catch up with the delays due to the cold. Even if you are counting J&J getting approved next Thursday, that increase is going to be less than anticipated (not sure on numbers, but 5 to 7 million doses, total, the first week or two?), but not until early March.

 

On your other point, can't speak for all the cruise lines, but both RCI and CCL have indicated enough money to last late into the year (RCI) and into early 2022 (CCL).

[kangforpres]

1 hour ago, CruiserBruce said:

Not sure what your sources are on these two points. The White House announced an increase to 13.5 million doses for next week, up from 11 million last week. By my math, that's not doubling. That doesn't count the complexities of the Midwest cold and transport. What Fauci did say is we need to go double time to catch up with the delays due to the cold. Even if you are counting J&J getting approved next Thursday, that increase is going to be less than anticipated (not sure on numbers, but 5 to 7 million doses, total, the first week or two?), but not until early March.

 

On your other point, can't speak for all the cruise lines, but both RCI and CCL have indicated enough money to last late into the year (RCI) and into early 2022 (CCL).

My source is Dr. Fauci's mouth has he was speaking the words on live TV.

 

Sure all the cruise lines have mountains of cash reserve to last them through the year even if they can't sail from US ports. That's what they tell Wall St, the Banks and their customers to offset any panic. CCL is having to auction off junk bonds to stay afloat right now, believe me cancelling and having to refund the entire Alaskan Season of HAL, Princes, Carnival, Cunard, Seaborn? takes another leg out from under the 3 leg table they are currently operating on.

 

-P.

[YXU AC*SE]

2 hours ago, kangforpres said:

3. How is the vaccine situation in Canada going? particularly in BC?

 

This makes me think a partial Alaska season will happen this year.

 

I admire your optimism, but where Canada is concerned, I fear it is misplaced.     Scott.

 

 

[kangforpres]

Sorry YXU-

 Is it a lack of supply, you guys have a coordinated national health care system, you should be at least on the UK track.

 

-Paul

[YXU AC*SE]

it is more the timing of our supply. Vax procurement is coordinated federally -- and without wandering into the realm of Canadian politics, the process has been somewhat muddled and opaque.  The federal government in turn distributes to the provinces, allocated on the basis of population.  The province then has responsibility for intra-provincial distribution, determining allocation priority, with the actual inoculations administered by regional on-the-ground public health agencies.  

 

Our version of Dr. Fauci, Dr. Theresa Tam said this morning, "For the next few months we're not going to have a lot of people vaccinated. That's a fact ... We need to keep going with the vaccine."" 

 

Our federal government assures us that anyone who wishes a vaccine will be able to do so by the end of September (which doesn't really help the Alaska season for this year.)  However, according to Ipsos polling released today, only 43% (7% strongly, 36% somewhat) of Canadians believe that we will hit that target. 

 

Lastly wrt travel, gatherings, etc and perceptions and attitudes of Canadians? I expect there would be some correlation between comfortable in travelling internationally with [unasked] receiving international visitors.

 

source: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2021-02/vaccine_attitudes-factum-2021-02-19-v1.pdf

 

So Paul, whilst your optimism is refreshing ...  'sometime in 2022' is likely where things will end up. 

 

Scott. 

 

 

[nocl]

6 hours ago, Sea42 said:

Dr Makary is a gastrointestinal and oncology surgeon at Johns Hopkins, where he also teaches public health policy. His research does include a wide range of topics, mostly health care costs and physician practices but communicable diseases nor immunology are among his field of expertise.

https://www.martymd.com/

Isn't he the same one that in March 2020 said on CNBC to expect Covid to be a 3 month problem?

 

 

[nocl]

6 hours ago, wolfie11 said:

Even if a miracle happens and cruise ships are allowed to sail at all this summer, unless the cruises can get started by July, it's unlikely there will be any Alaska season this year.  It would be extremely difficult to get shore-related activities up and running for a 10-week Alaska season.  Thousands of people have to be hired and trained.  Buses, aircraft, boats, and other transportation have to be repositioned and ready to go.  Facilities have to be opened up and staffed.  I can't see that happening for a short season.  The large majority of workers come from Outside and are probably not willing to fly to and from Alaska and work for a minimum wage for 8-10 weeks.  Most of these people are hired in January or February and show up in early to mid-April.  Glacier Bay?  Nope.  Park regulations state that a park ranger must be on a ship when it's in Glacier Bay.  They're not hiring any park rangers this year.  White Pass Railroad?  They just laid off 27 workers.  It simply wouldn't be worth it economically for Alaska to mobilize for a shortened season.

White Pass Railroad is owned by CCL (they purchased it when they purchased the port of Skagway). If they are laying people off at this point then it is pretty telling concerning their view of it running this year.

 

As far as Glacier Bay the National Park, might not be staffing as much as usual, but they will have some staffing.  Not all services are expected to be running, but they will still need to manage small cruise ships that will be running as we as privately owned small craft.  Also the lodge will be running this summer.

[Lido - Lanai]

16 hours ago, nocl said:

White Pass Railroad is owned by CCL (they purchased it when they purchased the port of Skagway)

White Pass Railroad is owned by Klondike Holdings, LLC. Carnival PLC is a minority partner, with Survey Point Holdings being the majority partner.

I don't believe CCL "owns" the Port of Skagway... as least not what I read from the limited research I've done. Perhaps someone living in the area can provide further clarification.