Will the 2022 Recession affect CCL cruise fares?

[DrSea]

With the US technically being in a recession with 2 quarters of negative GPD growth, how do you think this will affect cruise fares? Do you think bookings will be affected at all due to pent up demand from the COVID shut down?

 

I am not an economist. I just am always on the lookout for good bargains. Thoughts?

Edited July 28, 2022 by DrSea

[BlerkOne]

Plenty of job growth so more money to spend. Look for fares to go up.

[mz-s]

I don't see how anybody could fool themselves into thinking this recession will be any different than any other. Of course it will affect Carnival.

[wemjam]

Don't imagine that it would change it in the least for a while -  until people stop vacationing.  We have the perfect storm, after 2 years in lock down people want to buy/do everything - and a lot of extra expendable income that will last a while due to not spending for the last 2 years.  Also dollar for dollar cruising can be one of the cheapest forms of vacation when you consider room, transportation, entertainment, food, etc.  So more people might actually flock to it to make their family vacation dollar stretch.

 

More importantly - gas prices are much more likely to affect it conversely. 😪

[shibby sails]

Cruises are full, prices are up. No recession for cruise lines. People still taking their vacations. Airports and airlines are over booked. Gives people something to complain about. Prices go up. Is this where I should complain that a loaf of bread cost 25 cents when I was growing up? 

[Lee Cruiser]

Yes, it will certainly have some affect on cruising.  How much remains to be seen.  The job market is likely to follow.  It already is in some areas.  What is probably hurting most right now is the extremely high inflation.  Carnival, and other cruise lines, are stuck between a rock and hard place.  Their food and fuel prices are obviously rising steadily, but they can only raise rates so much.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, TheSeagoer said:

Job growth?

Pretty sure anyone who wants a job can find one.

[firefly333]

We have been in the recession for 6 months and surely you have seen some deals. Already probably past peak inflation. I think we have already seen the deals. Gone. Too late if you didnt snap them up. 

 

Now post covid travel is up, huge demand. Look on your news at airlines trouble because demand is so high. Royal just said this morning DEMAND is higher. Not lower.

 

Carnival said recently their prices have firmed. Nothing I see says the deals are coming back. Maybe a few last minute but nothing like during covid. Inflation would mean higher not lower cruise prices. 

[ChrisCJR]

Just a footnote. 

 

Airline demand is high, but they also slashed the number of flights pretty heavily, which only added to the demand for certain flights, IMHO.  They need to staff up and offer the availability that meets the demand. 

 

A trip I looked at used to have six flights a day, and JetBlue slashed it down to just one, for example.  Naturally, that one flight is usually sold out well in advance.  They keep saying they're going to revert back to normal flight schedules, but they have yet to do so. Not holding my breath.

 

Works for me though, living in Florida, I just keep on cruising.  Hoping to take a land based trip next year, if all goes well.

[jerseyjjs]

3 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Don't know. Don't care. The higher the price of oil, the better for me.

 

          Really showing true colors with that statement.  But it's not like everyone on this board already knew that.

[BlerkOne]

5 minutes ago, Saint Greg said:

 

125 million barrels released and counting. That will bring it up to 145 million barrels. We don't really know when we're going to stop using our reserves but hopefully when prices get back down we will be able to refill it. Congress blocked the refill attempt two years ago.

As of May, "Stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 538 million barrels, the lowest since 1987.",  or much less than a months supply.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

Just now, jerseyjjs said:

 

          Really showing true colors with that statement.  But it's not like everyone on this board already knew that.

Red, white, and blue. Living the dream.

[Saint Greg]

5 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

As of May, "Stockpiles in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell to 538 million barrels, the lowest since 1987.",  or much less than a months supply.

 

 

 

I've got a more current number for you. 511 is where we were on June 10. I'd imagine we're well under 500 million today. Max capacity is 727 million barrels. We were around 650 when we tried to refill it two years ago. Congress called it a bailout for the oil companies and blocked it.

[bamaone]

4 hours ago, DrSea said:

With the US technically being in a recession with 2 quarters of negative GPD growth, how do you think this will affect cruise fares? 

According to our leaders, we’re not in a recession. We’re in a trans session. The GPD growth identifies as a positive. You know, 2 negatives = a positive type stuff.

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, Saint Greg said:

 

I've got a more current number for you. 511 is where we were on June 10. I'd imagine we're well under 500 million today. Max capacity is 727 million barrels. We were around 650 when we tried to refill it two years ago. Congress called it a bailout for the oil companies and blocked it.

I think Big Oil could produce more but they choose not to. As I recall, the whole point of the SPR was to be a bargaining chip should foreign oil producers try to weaponize oil, but the US doesn't import that much these days. I'm not sure the SPR is needed, or at least it should have a new purpose defined.

[mz-s]

4 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Plenty of job growth so more money to spend. Look for fares to go up.

 

When we get back to where we were in February 2020 and add jobs beyond that, then you can call it job growth.

[Saint Greg]

17 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I think Big Oil could produce more but they choose not to. As I recall, the whole point of the SPR was to be a bargaining chip should foreign oil producers try to weaponize oil, but the US doesn't import that much these days. I'm not sure the SPR is needed, or at least it should have a new purpose defined.

 

The SPR is for emergency. War. Of course we need it. We're using it now. We imported about 8.5mil barrels of oil per day last year. 

 

[Joe817]

39 minutes ago, TheSeagoer said:

Job openings are not job growth. Go away 

There are more job openings than people to fill them. Almost every store I go to has a "help wanted" sign on the front door.  The unemployment rate in Texas alone is 3.6%. For the entire United States is 4.6%. With an unemployment rate that low, it meets the definition of "full employment." A simple google of "unemployment rate' gave me those results. 

[Joe817]

4 minutes ago, Saint Greg said:

 

The SPR is for emergency. War. Of course we need it. We're using it now. We imported about 8.5mil barrels of oil per day last year. 

 

Almost but not quite. The SPR is called upon during times of petroleum supply disruptions. But there's more. The SPR has been called upon many times since its inception back in 1975.

 

For an in-depth analysis of the SPR, here's an interesting read from the CATO Institute:

 

https://www.cato.org/blog/strategic-petroleum-reserve-was-never-used-strategically-1

[scpirate]

4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Of course there will be price gougers. There are apps for finding cheaper gas.

I might be weird but then again i was a trucker 35 years ago and i prefer truck stop restrooms. Any more I 20 in south carolina has been backing up for hours at a time luckily i filled my tank at any price before hitting the log jam and it took 3 hours to get off the interstate to find a new longer route home.

[Bgwest]

Remember when the US was energy independent for the first time in 75 years,  waaaaaay back in 2020?

 

Seems like only yesterday. 

[BlerkOne]

17 minutes ago, Bgwest said:

Remember when the US was energy independent for the first time in 75 years,  waaaaaay back in 2020?

 

Seems like only yesterday. 

I can't remember when the US didn't lead the world in oil consumption, to say nothing about per capita consumption. But as pointed out somewhere above, the US has never stopped importing energy.

[cruisingguy007]

4 hours ago, jerseyjjs said:

 

          Really showing true colors with that statement.  But it's not like everyone on this board already knew that.

 

It actually is kinda good, many more people are rethinking huge trucks and even commuting altogether. I've used the least amount of gas over the last year as I've used in my life, I think I've filled my gas tank 3 times in the last 6 months. Many are now looking into electric bikes, gas powered bikes, electric scooters, gas scooters and automatic motorcycles (DCT transmission) that are easy to drive and get 60-70 miles to the gallon. We may see 2 cylinder cars like they use in India and other countries. These are all great options for a lot of people that are readily used in other countries but not in the USA. Wealthy are also buying up electric vehicles like mad. Hopefully, some low price models are eventually considered, not everyone wants to spend 70-100K on a fancy Tesla. 

 

There is no reason we shouldn't be utilizing these options to reduce our costs/consumption. Sure, it won't work for everyone, but if you choose to move to the boonies and drive hours each way to work, that's a choice. You have to lower your costs by finding ways to increase MPG, lower use or opt out as much as possible and not participate while in an inflationary period. You can also offset by reducing costs elsewhere, ie skip summer vacation this year, quit buying things unless necessities, and reduce frivolous spending on low return luxuries. 

 

People are finally waking up, I've seen many less lifted trucks rolling around the neighborhoods rolling coal at lights. Even all the wanna be fast and furious speed racers (HUGE problem in my area) with the supercharges speeding around popping off all that unburned wasted gas has dropped significantly. I've also noticed freeway speeds have drop a bit, not as many running 90-100mph like there was when gas was cheap. There are still plenty but the majority have chilled back a bit since prices went up. People always return to the same old when prices drop back down but hopefully some of these ideas/options stick long term (like the high MPG vehicle options).      

[cruisingguy007]

3 hours ago, Bgwest said:

Remember when the US was energy independent for the first time in 75 years,  waaaaaay back in 2020?

 

Seems like only yesterday. 

 

2021 actually but it's a bit more complicated than that. Good read here on Forbes about this specific topic.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/03/08/surprise-the-us-is-still-energy-independent/?sh=7cab917730b6

[BlerkOne]

7 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

It actually is kinda good, many more people are rethinking huge trucks and even commuting altogether. I've used the least amount of gas over the last year as I've used in my life, I think I've filled my gas tank 3 times in the last 6 months. Many are now looking into electric bikes, gas powered bikes, electric scooters, gas scooters and automatic motorcycles (DCT transmission) that are easy to drive and get 60-70 miles to the gallon. We may see 2 cylinder cars like they use in India and other countries. These are all great options for a lot of people that are readily used in other countries but not in the USA. Wealthy are also buying up electric vehicles like mad. Hopefully, some low price models are eventually considered, not everyone wants to spend 70-100K on a fancy Tesla. 

 

 

Look for tax breaks for alternative fuel vehicles, too.