Odds of illness on a cruise?

[mom says]

21 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

That you will get ill, or that you wont?

Yes.

[GTO-Girl]

3 hours ago, aspencreek said:

 

Ugh, hope it wasn't too bad a case!  Did you get quarantined for a long stretch onboard or did it show up after you got home?

it was just like a sinus infection.  I started feeling bad the day we got off and tested positive two days later.  I was over it in about 5 days, so not a big deal to me at all.  
 

Certainly didn’t stop me from cruising….😎😎

[lenquixote66]

7 hours ago, aspencreek said:

For those of you who have cruised a fair bit, what do you think the actual odds of getting sick on board would be?  That is assuming reasonable precautions are met -- ie washing hands frequently, distancing where possible, refraining from lip kissing strangers, etc.  

 

I've only done two cruises ever (7 nights each) and the last one was about 10 years ago and I got what was likely norovirus or food poisoning.  So I'm running at a 50% sick rate on my cruises.  Is it actually quite rare as the cruise lines or government agencies would say, or have you seen / experienced much more incidents of illness?  Really want to give cruising another go soon but the sick-on-vacation experience was extremely miserable.  Thanks in advance!

I have yet to get sick on a cruise .In fact the last time I had a cold was 2018.

[Pyrate13]

Also been cruising for almost 20 years and have never gotten sick. Once my wife got seasick during stormy weather, but that's all.

[Markanddonna]

I think a person needs to consider other health issues they have. I am quite healthy and only caught one cold from a cruise experience (pretty sure it was from a passenger sitting behind us on one of those large ship excursions.) My DH has COPD and picks up something about 33% of the time. When he catches something, it goes to his chest immediately, and he has to go on antibiotics. We work very hard at not touching the elevator buttons with our fingertips, trying to avoid obvious sick folk and all the other things people suggest. On our last cruise, my DH was quite sick, and it started with eating tainted scallops on the cruise (MSC.) His immune system was shot, and then he picked up a URI.

 

[edinburgher]

We have cruised multiple times  for over 25 years and all we ever picked up was the dreaded "cruise cough" which we caught a number of times.  That also happened a few times after longer haul flights too, so it isn't unique to cruise ships. We think the forced air or a/c is the culprit as we Britsare unused  to it. It has not put us off flying, but what the chances of catching it on a future flight are, I would have no idea.

 

Many years ago, 3 of our four family members caught Noro on a land based hotel stay in Spain.  Nasty at the time but it didn't put us off staying in hotels for ever more and it never happened again.  What were the chances?

 

We are cautious on ships, not touching hand rails or elevator buttons (use elbows for these) and avoiding touching surfaces wherever possible.(Eg when moving dining or other chairs, use a napkin/serviette to touch them) We are also alert to any signs that there may be Noro onboard and tbgin extra precautions.  Should you see staff have removed condiments from dining tables and that the buffet is no longer "self serve" these are very good ealy warning signs as these are usually the first precautionary changes staff will make in public areas which passengers will notice, although additional cleaning/wiping down handrails and in public areas and elevators would be another indication.

 

Noro is actually on the rise in the UK right now, as it is every winter. Most know it as "winter vomiting bug".as it comes around every year usually between Oct/Nov and March/April.  In England  case numbers are currently the highest they have been for a number of years.  Chances of catching it if visiting the UK?  Who knows. chances of YOU catching it on a UK land trip, again who knows?

Edited March 5, 2023 by edinburgher

[evandbob]

The OP and everyone else can raise or lower their odds of catching something contagious while cruising.

 

Handwashing, sanitizing and wearing masks in crowded indoor spots like elevators or avoiding them altogether, will change the odds. Doesn't mean they will or won't catch anything, just that the odds of doing so will change.

 

And every gambler knows that odds are different than outcomes.

Edited March 5, 2023 by evandbob

[MCC retired]

What has happened ? When I started cruising in 1976 the only illness that concerned anyone was seasickness .

[Hlitner]

3 minutes ago, MCC retired said:

What has happened ? When I started cruising in 1976 the only illness that concerned anyone was seasickness .

We started thinking about that (we first cruised in 1975) and have some ideas.  Most of us (who are still around) who cruised in those "good ole days" would take 3,4 or 7 day cruises.  Even if one gets exposed to something on those short cruises, there is a good chance they will be back home before they have any symptoms.  But now, those of us from those days are much older and tend to take longer cruises.  The longer one is on a ship, the more chance of developing a health problem.  

 

We once became friendly with an American physician who used to work on HAL.  During our time together we would talk about the health issues on cruises, and he had some interesting thoughts.  At the time, and this was a few years ago, he told us that the two major health issues on ships were simply Norovirus and URIs (which is often called "cabin cough" by veteran cruisers).  The cruise lines, with a lot of help from the CDC and USPHS, have made great strides in the control of Noro.  But "cabin cough" is still a huge issue on longer cruises and like other respiratory viruses that spread through the air (such as COVID) it is very difficult to control.  Does masking help?  Lots of differing opinions on that issue.  Even our own CDC, who embraced mask wearing for COVID, has never encouraged mask wearing for flu prevention.  Why not?  Lots of unanswered questions from our own "experts."  

[All4Fun.]

Sea sickness would account for a substantial percentage of “illness” aboard a cruise ship. How do you figure those odds?

[YourWorldWithBill]

On 3/4/2023 at 1:26 PM, aspencreek said:

For those of you who have cruised a fair bit, what do you think the actual odds of getting sick on board would be?  That is assuming reasonable precautions are met -- ie washing hands frequently, distancing where possible, refraining from lip kissing strangers, etc.  

 

I've only done two cruises ever (7 nights each) and the last one was about 10 years ago and I got what was likely norovirus or food poisoning.  So I'm running at a 50% sick rate on my cruises.  Is it actually quite rare as the cruise lines or government agencies would say, or have you seen / experienced much more incidents of illness?  Really want to give cruising another go soon but the sick-on-vacation experience was extremely miserable.  Thanks in advance!

The best thing you can do is wash your hands a lot. Just like they told us during the beginning of the pandemic, the same principle applies. If you keep your hands clean, your odds improve exponentially.

[jamscckmc]

I would expect Covid cases to be higher this year than last year due to unvaccinated and no testing. I’m wondering if there are more medical evacuations . On a 7 night cruise I would guess that a lot of people won’t show symptoms till they get home. I’d hate to be sick on a long flight home. Previously you couldn’t get on a flight home if you were positive. I have yet to cruise post Covid but have two scheduled. With 25+ cruises I had food poisoning once and nothing else. I do avoid the buffet and the elevator as much as possible. It’s hard to avoid crowds if you like shows or even dining in the MDR. You would hope that obviously sick cruisers would isolate themselves but there’s a lot of it’s my cruise and I’ll do what I want.

[AKJonesy]

Unlike others, I would say your chance of picking up something is greater from the flight to or from; not necessarily on the ship.  Being mindful of contact points for spreading sickness such as handrails, etc and washing your hands after you touch those things will go a very long way.  I also bring those wipes with me we've all collected from pandemic, and when I'm in hotel, I wipe down contact points; especially the tv remote and things like that.  Post pandemic, I have not been sick, but have been sick many times with norovirus or a cold/flu far more before the pandemic.  I think much of that has to do with "awareness".  Also, before any travel I start high dosing on supplements such as Vitamin C and others, then keep up that high dosing on the cruise; which is what I am doing now in preparation for my upcoming cruise.  Best wishes and stay well.  

[ldubs]

If someone is more susceptible to getting sick, then I would say the chances of catching something are pretty high on a ship or airplane.   

[ceeceeDee]

Well, we have 100% success rate in NOT getting sick (admittedly prior to covid). Two cruises on a smaller ship (approx 2000 pax) for 10 days and 7 days respectively and one 7 day cruise on a mega ship (6000+ pax). Have another 7 day cruise booked on a 2600 pax ship later in the year. Haven't really given the possibility of getting sick a second thought. Yes, we will be taking precautions - hand sanitising regularly, avoiding the elevators (added bonus of burning calories by taking the stairs) and probably not jamming into the crowded nightclub but really you can get sick by going to the local shopping mall. Go ahead and book your cruise.

[wcook]

I’ve been doing some math. It looks like there are two options - get sick, don’t get sick. That makes the odds of getting sick exactly 50%, no?

 

Anyway, I’m sure anyone who ever had norovirus or similar that may have come from a cruise will be very cautious going forward. And I don’t blame them. 

[9tee2Sea]

no matter how careful, I ALWAYS catch something the last day or two.  Come back with sniffles, cough.  I always rack it up to being tired.    If you are concerned about someones illness while onboard, tell them they should be wearing a mask, and give them one.

[d9704011]

23 minutes ago, 9tee2Sea said:

tell them they should be wearing a mask, and give them one.

This is excellent advice.  If possible, you should let the Cruise Director know what you're planning to do so other passengers can be made aware of upcoming entertainment.

[lynncarol]

Having been on many cruises (probably 2X per year) over the past thirty years. The one time I got sick was a year ago on a 10 day Caribbean cruise when I came down with Covid....despite being vaccinated and boosted. Plus, at that time, everyone onboard had to be vaccinated too.  Started feeling like a cold was coming on the last night onboard. Stayed in my cabin, disembarked and masked until I got home and tested just to make sure. Shocked to get a positive result since, thanks to the vaccines, I never got really sick. However, now that my usual cruise lines have dropped all Covid requirements, I think I will sit this next year out. So, judging by my experience, yes... you are now more likely to get sick onboard a cruise ship.

[Donald]

My colleagues at the United States Public Health Service (USPH) have a theory that on every medium sized cruise ship (2500-3000 pax) departing a US Port, there are at least 60 passengers who have just boarded with either COVID or NLV.

Some of these people know they are sick, and are hiding it to avoid quarantine or being denied boarding. Some of them are unaware that they have the illness, as they just picked it up in a hotel or on a flight. The symptoms will start in a day or so.

Either way, these 60 passengers will be trying (perhaps unintentionally) to give their illness to you in all the public areas. They are also exposing the crew who clean their cabins and serve their food.

On a high density occupied ship, the odds of you getting in some sort of contact with one of these infected pax are quite good.

 

On a smaller cruise ship, with, say 100 pax, the number of infected pax boarding the ship might be 4 or 5. Smaller ships generally have more space per person, reducing crowding and unintentional close contacts. Those 4 or 5 people are still trying to get you sick, but you may never get close enough to them to become infected.

If you go to the Vessel Sanitation Website of the USPH, you can research the history of all cruise ships that have recorded Viral Outbreaks onboard over the past several years. The one trend that is very clear is the size of the ships - nearly every one of them is large.

 

One can argue that there are many different factors that can affect spreading illnesses on a cruise ship - but one cannot deny that smaller ships (with fewer pax and less crowding) rarely have viral outbreaks, while bigger ships (with more pax and more density) usually have the outbreaks.

[donaldsc]

On 3/4/2023 at 11:26 AM, aspencreek said:

For those of you who have cruised a fair bit, what do you think the actual odds of getting sick on board would be?  That is assuming reasonable precautions are met -- ie washing hands frequently, distancing where possible, refraining from lip kissing strangers, etc.  

 

I've only done two cruises ever (7 nights each) and the last one was about 10 years ago and I got what was likely norovirus or food poisoning.  So I'm running at a 50% sick rate on my cruises.  Is it actually quite rare as the cruise lines or government agencies would say, or have you seen / experienced much more incidents of illness?  Really want to give cruising another go soon but the sick-on-vacation experience was extremely miserable.  Thanks in advance!

 

Your question of what the odds are is not answerable or at least unanswerable in terms of the way that you state the question.  You have to provide a lot of information about your population group and also what accuracy you want your prediction to be before you can calculation the probability of an event occurring.  I don't want to appear facetious but people take years of college courses to try to accurately answer the question that you are posing.

 

DO