P&O Cruisers - What are things like where YOU are?

[davecttr]

33 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Indeed. Figures in the press today show that only 42 people have died from CV19 with no pre-existing condition. Obviously, that is still 42 too many, but it does put the risk facing healthy individuals into perspective. 

95.6% of those who have died of CV19 had at least one pre-existing serious condition. 

Are you sure? those numbers mean only 954.54545 people have died from COVID 🤔

[Host Hattie]

The 42 refers to the number of people under 40 who have died, not the total.

[wowzz]

16 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Are you sure? those numbers mean only 954.54545 people have died from COVID 🤔

Sorry, only 42 people under 40 died from CV19  who had no pre-existing medical condition.

[AndyMichelle]

30 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Sorry, only 42 people under 40 died from CV19  who had no pre-existing medical condition.

Oh that's OK then.... 😠

I get it, I really do, I have more chance of getting hit by a bus and all that, but I'm not taking any risk that could kill a relative, despite them having pre existing etc etc... 

Andy 

[Harry Peterson]

I see we have some people here as interested as statistics as I am.  Can anyone help me out with this Covid conundrum please?

 

The average number of infections across England is around 210 per 100,000 at present.

 

That would suggest to me that you have a 0.21% chance of meeting someone potentially infectious.

 

But the ONS says that it’s 1 in 80/85 people with the infection.  That’s around 1,2% - 6 times higher.

 

Where am I going wrong in trying to understand these figures?

[grapau27]

2 hours ago, mercury7289 said:

So there is no medication or guidance other then to shut yourself away, amazed.

 

Have they painted a red cross on your front door?

It is disappointing that unless you go into hospital you are left to yourselves.

If you go into hospital you cannot have visitors.

After my heart attack in December 2019 I got blood thinners,anti platelet meds,beta blockers,statins and Lanzoprazol which help against covid19.

I had a flu and pneumonia jab a couple of months ago which I believe helped me too.

Graham.

[mercury7289]

Just now, grapau27 said:

It is disappointing that unless you go into hospital you are left to yourselves.

If you go into hospital you cannot have visitors.

After my heart attack in December 2019 I got blood thinners,anti platelet meds,beta blockers,statins and Lanzoprazol which help against covid19.

I had a flu and pneumonia jab a couple of months ago which I believe helped me too.

Graham.

Sounds like you have got breakfast sorted out! 

[grapau27]

2 hours ago, kalos said:

 

It's Pauline I feel sorry for running around in a plague doctors mask 

Fortunately I believe Pauline is asymptomatic and has been great.

I was very close to having to go into hospital but fortunately after a bad Saturday night 8 days ago I fought back and turned the corner.

[mercury7289]

Just now, grapau27 said:

Fortunately I believe Pauline is asymptomatic and has been great.

I was very close to having to go into hospital but fortunately after a bad Saturday night 8 days ago I fought back and turned the corner.

A fight worth winning, keep strong and positive

[kalos]

18 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

I see we have some people here as interested as statistics as I am.  Can anyone help me out with this Covid conundrum please?

 

The average number of infections across England is around 210 per 100,000 at present.

 

That would suggest to me that you have a 0.21% chance of meeting someone potentially infectious.

 

But the ONS says that it’s 1 in 80/85 people with the infection.  That’s around 1,2% - 6 times higher.

 

Where am I going wrong in trying to understand these figures?

 

Maybe the figures were never true in the first place Harry .

Remember how they counted one persons swab test for example 

[AndyMichelle]

20 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

I see we have some people here as interested as statistics as I am.  Can anyone help me out with this Covid conundrum please?

 

The average number of infections across England is around 210 per 100,000 at present.

 

That would suggest to me that you have a 0.21% chance of meeting someone potentially infectious.

 

But the ONS says that it’s 1 in 80/85 people with the infection.  That’s around 1,2% - 6 times higher.

 

Where am I going wrong in trying to understand these figures?

My accountant tells me you can make figures say what you want Harry... 

I never understand... 

Andy 

[Adawn47]

2 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

My accountant tells me you can make figures say what you want Harry... 

I never understand... 

Andy 

I understand some peoples love of statistics, but I can't see numbers, I see human lives. I must just be an old softie☺️

Avril

[Harry Peterson]

Just now, AndyMichelle said:

My accountant tells me you can make figures say what you want Harry... 

I never understand... 

Andy 

He's right. You can, and accountants do it routinely. No fiddling of receipts and expenditure necessary - just the timing at which they're brought into account, and profits can be brought forward or pushed back to suit.  Tesco was a case in point.

 

But you're obviously running a very successful business, and that counts an awful lot more than an accountant shunting profits around between accounting periods!

[grapau27]

1 hour ago, Dermotsgirl said:

Not sure about the figures there.

 

if 95.6% of those who have died of cv19 had at least one pre existing condition, that means that 4.4% didn’t. The ‘official’ death toll is almost 55000 and 4.4% of 55000 is 2420 people.

 

That’s just a back of an envelope calculation, and the true death toll of Covid is probably much higher, but the figure of 42 seems unfeasibly low. 
 

Notwithstanding any of this, Covid can make anybody very ill. Even if it doesn’t kill you, it’s not exactly a walk in the park

Covid19 is extremely unpleasant and as I have had it for 16 days so far I am in a position to comment on it.

Graham.

[Harry Peterson]

Just now, Adawn47 said:

I understand some peoples love of statistics, but I can't see numbers, I see human lives. I must just be an old softie☺️

Avril

I absolutely take your point, Avril, but from my point of view, and doubtless countless others, I use those statistics as one of the only avenues open to me to avoid contracting a virus which is likely to be fatal.

 

I could lock myself away completely, never venture even onto the drive or into the village, but the stats allow me to work out an approximate risk of various activities.  At the moment there's apparently a 1 in 85 (ish) chance in an average area of meeting someone with the virus.  That's a pretty small risk outside, distanced, but if that figure became 1 in 5 (unlikely) I'd change my behaviour.

 

It's using the statistics to save lives that counts, and that's what the government is supposed to be doing.

[grapau27]

19 minutes ago, mercury7289 said:

Sounds like you have got breakfast sorted out! 

Sorry I don't understand your point.

I answered your questions as fully as possible and just had a 16 day nightmare with Covid19 and still am unwell.

[Adawn47]

7 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Covid19 is extremely unpleasant and as I have had it for 16 days so far I am in a position to comment on it.

Graham.

Exactly Graham, and above all -- You are not a statistic !!!

Avril

[kalos]

8 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Fortunately I believe Pauline is asymptomatic and has been great.

I was very close to having to go into hospital but fortunately after a bad Saturday night 8 days ago I fought back and turned the corner.

 

Good for you Graham and it's great to hear your improving day by day .

You of all people will know how nasty this virus can become .

Some will have not had chance to turn the corner you have and will /have lost their lives to it.

Others and from what I have read up on it will now live a life destroyed by covid having what 

is now called "Long Term Covid syndrome" .

Living  now with things like Heart Failure, Lung/nerve  Damage to name a few , for the rest 

of their lives . Glad to hear you are hopefully past this and will fully recover Graham .

 

Lets all take care & stay safe 

[Adawn47]

Just now, grapau27 said:

Sorry I don't understand your point.

I answered your questions as fully as possible and just had a 16 day nightmare with Covid19 and still am unwell.

He meant no offence Graham, he was referring to all your medication. When Frank takes his tablets each morning, he calls it his 'first breakfast'

Avril

[grapau27]

6 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

Exactly Graham, and above all -- You are not a statistic !!!

Avril

Thanks Avril.

 

[grapau27]

5 minutes ago, kalos said:

 

Good for you Graham and it's great to hear your improving day by day .

You of all people will know how nasty this virus can become .

Some will have not had chance to turn the corner you have and will /have lost their lives to it.

Others and from what I have read up on it will now live a life destroyed by covid having what 

is now called "Long Term Covid syndrome" .

Living  now with things like Heart Failure, Lung/nerve  Damage to name a few , for the rest 

of their lives . Glad to hear you are hopefully past this and will fully recover Graham .

 

Lets all take care & stay safe 

Thanks Kalos.

You always are caring and a good friend.

Graham

[grapau27]

6 minutes ago, Adawn47 said:

He meant no offence Graham, he was referring to all your medication. When Frank takes his tablets each morning, he calls it his 'first breakfast'

Avril

Thanks Avril.

It's not a saying I am familiar with and was bemused by the comment.

Your description puts clarity to the phrase for me now.

Kindest regards.

Graham x.

[Adawn47]

8 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

I absolutely take your point, Avril, but from my point of view, and doubtless countless others, I use those statistics as one of the only avenues open to me to avoid contracting a virus which is likely to be fatal.

 

I could lock myself away completely, never venture even onto the drive or into the village, but the stats allow me to work out an approximate risk of various activities.  At the moment there's apparently a 1 in 85 (ish) chance in an average area of meeting someone with the virus.  That's a pretty small risk outside, distanced, but if that figure became 1 in 5 (unlikely) I'd change my behaviour.

 

It's using the statistics to save lives that counts, and that's what the government is supposed to be doing.

Lies, damned lies and statistics. Everyone has a different number depending on who you listen to Harry, even on here. If your sole reason is for your health then you should listen to your own common sense, which I know you do. I'm sure it's much more reliable than some obscure statistician.

Avril

[terrierjohn]

59 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

I see we have some people here as interested as statistics as I am.  Can anyone help me out with this Covid conundrum please?

 

The average number of infections across England is around 210 per 100,000 at present.

 

That would suggest to me that you have a 0.21% chance of meeting someone potentially infectious.

 

But the ONS says that it’s 1 in 80/85 people with the infection.  That’s around 1,2% - 6 times higher.

 

Where am I going wrong in trying to understand these figures?

I assume that the 210 per 100,000 is based on the routine tests of people mainly with symptoms. Whereas the ONS data is from a random test sample being undertaken weekly, which is supposed to give a more accurate assessment of the real level of infection.

But as you know I don't believe any of them, except where they fit my argument.

[Harry Peterson]

11 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

I assume that the 210 per 100,000 is based on the routine tests of people mainly with symptoms. Whereas the ONS data is from a random test sample being undertaken weekly, which is supposed to give a more accurate assessment of the real level of infection.

But as you know I don't believe any of them, except where they fit my argument.

You may be right - I have no idea.  But if you are, as you may well be, that's quite a discrepancy between two sets of government issued figures.