What are the chances of Fall Cruises being suspended?

[ARandomTraveler]

28 minutes ago, clo said:

You and I may be talking about two different kinds of ports. I'm talking about cities that have all manner of businesses. Granted most of the world's economy is hurting now but this will hopefully end and those cities can go back to all the industry they had before.

Yes I was thinking more or the traditional ports-of-call, the Caribbean islands whose industry relies primarily on tourism.

[clo]

16 minutes ago, leaveitallbehind said:

Well when you consider the Caribbean, as example, many of those islands depend primarily on tourism as a major segment of their economy.  They are already hurting from this and will continue to be impacted until - as just one sector - the cruise ships once again start sailing and calling on them again.  While demonstrating the current global responsibility necessary, I would guess they are all quite anxious to see this pass so they can resume their normal port of call operations.

That's what I kinda figured you were talking about. Whereas I was thinking Europe, Asia, S. America, Australia. And as others have pointed out a lot of those places would likely prefer non-cruising tourists as they stay in hotels, go to restaurants, rent cars, etc.

[ONECRUISER]

1 hour ago, clo said:

Oh, I was talking about all three. Diagnosis will be super. But not enough to get people back on ships. IMO.

No problem, test showing had CV and can return to work and take a Cruise

[clo]

1 minute ago, ONECRUISER said:

test showing had CV

Huh? You're thinking that there will be a test that shows one HAD it but doesn't any more?

[iancal]

Will there be cruises in the Fall?  Who knows.  Perhaps as big a question is even if there are cruises in the Fall, how many people would buy them?

[Lard Greystoke]

4 hours ago, clo said:

Huh? You're thinking that there will be a test that shows one HAD it but doesn't any more?

Antibody test.  It will happen.

 

It is extremely unlikely that this virus will be contained until (if) a vaccine is developed, which is unlikely before the end of the year.  The best we can hope for till then is to starve the virus of hosts (us) by following isolation procedures.  But so long as one person, anywhere, has the virus, with the ease of travel it is virtually certain that new waves of outbreaks will continue.

 

The most likely scenario I can imagine is a roller coaster of temporary containment followed by 'back to normal' (which isn't) followed by new outbreak followed by lockdown, in several waves for perhaps the next eighteen months.  If that helps anyone plan.

 

(Also, by projecting current deaths (2,405) into the future, I would anticipate a minimum of 20,000 in US by the end of April.  And that is being optimistic.  If you think things are bad now....)

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2020 by Lard Greystoke

[clo]

1 minute ago, Lard Greystoke said:

Antibody test.  It will happen.

My lab experience background is really, really old. But, at least back then, you diluted the blood and added the antigen to multiple dilutions. There were lower dilutions that might or might not show an active infection. Even the higher dilutions. Truly the only way to know if there was an active infection was for at least two samples being tested with a big change. For instance, the test I ran showed that anything with a dilution of 1:32 or below that 'reacted' was inconclusive or negative. From there on up it was likely positive but without an upward change that wasn't conclusive. And then there were the "immunity" issues. As I said my info is so, so old and perhaps completely out of date. ??

[donaldsc]

On 3/29/2020 at 5:22 PM, aurora_borealis said:

There are also likely to be multiple waves. China is through a single wave right now.

 

This is based on history - even with social distancing measures, the Spanish flu of 1918 had two peaks. Given the nature of this virus, it is highly probable we will see a second and maybe even later wave until sufficient people have had the virus, or there is a vaccine.

 

Port temperature checks are theatre for a virus that can take 2 weeks to incubate.

 

Considering how many people refuse to take the measles vaccine,  do you want to make a guess as to how many will also refuse to take the Corona vaccine?  Are the cruise lines going to require that people have taken and can prove to have taken the Corona vaccine before allowing them to board?

 

DON

[tinykygal]

On 3/29/2020 at 7:39 PM, rtazz17 said:

If you asked me even a week ago I wouldve said no chance. But right now Im not sure what will happen. Everyday is a new surprise,as of now 50 crew on oasis are positive and im sure its prolly on all cruise ships by now. They will inevitably imo need to test and remove crews from ships further delaying anything that could possibly happen to start up cruising. It looks dismal at the moment. My april cruise was cancelled and im not rebooking anything till I see cruises actually leaving port and returning without any new cases. Honestly at this point cruising doesnt matter to me. Our lives are upside down from top to bottom in my community  

Our friends booked their first cruise and it is to Alaska in August.

We have cruised many times and they respect our opinion.

 

At the beginning of COVID cruise reports I suggested to delay cancellation until closer to cruise and she should receive 100% of refund.  However, final payment is middle of May.

Would you suggest she go ahead or still wait a few weeks for HAL to contact her?

 

Airline tickets have been purchased.

Thank you.

[Jimbo]

2 hours ago, tinykygal said:

Our friends booked their first cruise and it is to Alaska in August.

We have cruised many times and they respect our opinion.

 

At the beginning of COVID cruise reports I suggested to delay cancellation until closer to cruise and she should receive 100% of refund.  However, final payment is middle of May.

Would you suggest she go ahead or still wait a few weeks for HAL to contact her?

 

Airline tickets have been purchased.

Thank you.

Wait it out, they will know what they are going to do by the first week of May whether on not the sailing is a go. They will decide before final payment.

[iancal]

I would wait it out until final payment unless of course I made the decision to pull the plug and wait until next season (which is what we would do).

 

I would also be looking into my credit card issuers rules and policies regarding disputing a charge, the process, and any time related rules between the charge and registering a  dispute.  Who knows where the industry will end up and if some vendors will fail.  

 

The other question is even if ships sail, would people feel comfortable sailing or would the memory of recent issues detract from the cruise experience.

[Toofarfromthesea]

21 hours ago, clo said:

Huh? You're thinking that there will be a test that shows one HAD it but doesn't any more?

 

Of course.  This has been talked about for some time, and they are in testing.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200327/researchers-develop-covid-19-antibody-test

[clo]

2 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Of course.  This has been talked about for some time, and they are in testing.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200327/researchers-develop-covid-19-antibody-test

Perhaps I wasn't clear. A "positive" test in a lower dilution may show an active disease or an immunity. I could sure be wrong but I have no idea of it showing that you've recovered.

[Toofarfromthesea]

1 minute ago, clo said:

Perhaps I wasn't clear. A "positive" test in a lower dilution may show an active disease or an immunity. I could sure be wrong but I have no idea of it showing that you've recovered.

 

Please the article and stop spreading misinformation.  This is the antibody test.  It is completely different than the active disease tests they have been doing and they measure something else.

[sfaaa]

I still have 3 cruises booked for this fall and not yet cancelled.  But mentally, I have already written them off and prepared for a  cruise deprived 2020.

[George C]

Very happy that we already had a great cruise in February and I am currently optimistic about our cruise at end of November. 

[clo]

2 minutes ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

Please the article and stop spreading misinformation.  This is the antibody test.  It is completely different than the active disease tests they have been doing and they measure something else.

I've read the article twice. BTW webmd is not considered a reliable site. Called something like a "hypochondriac's dream." 🙂 But I don't think you understand antigens and antibodies. Antibody tests can show active and old disease. AFAIK - I haven't worked in the field in many years - there's no test that shows the disease is over. Probably if the titer dropped. 

"the concentration of an antibody, as determined by finding the highest dilution at which it is still able to cause agglutination of the antigen."

 

I worked at CDC many, many years ago and with a particular blood parasite not a virus. But it seems like an antigen/antibody test would have certain features in common. Again, It's been a long time and I wish someone with current info would speak up.

 

[Toofarfromthesea]

20 hours ago, clo said:

I've read the article twice. BTW webmd is not considered a reliable site. Called something like a "hypochondriac's dream." 🙂 But I don't think you understand antigens and antibodies. Antibody tests can show active and old disease. AFAIK - I haven't worked in the field in many years - there's no test that shows the disease is over. Probably if the titer dropped. 

"the concentration of an antibody, as determined by finding the highest dilution at which it is still able to cause agglutination of the antigen."

 

I worked at CDC many, many years ago and with a particular blood parasite not a virus. But it seems like an antigen/antibody test would have certain features in common. Again, It's been a long time and I wish someone with current info would speak up.

 

 

I want to apologize for how snarky my post came out.  

[clo]

1 hour ago, Toofarfromthesea said:

 

I want to apologize for how snarky my post came out.  

Thanks but no problem. 

Cath

[Hlitner]

This is a cruise blog web site, not a medical blog.   We think the cruise situation has now reached the point where the question should be "can the cruise industry survive COVID-19?"  A few days ago I would have said that its a ridiculous question.  But today, I think it is close to reality.  Consider that just today, RCI announced that they were cancelling all RCI, Celebrity and Azamara cruises through Sept 1!  Meanwhile, the USCG has informed the cruise industry to be prepared to deal with their own sick passengers and crew....including making private arrangements to evacuate them from ships off of FL.  What this means for potential passengers is that we can  no longer have any confidence of being able to access adequate medical care when on a ship.  Passengers have already died on HAL's Zaandam, possibly because of the cruise ship's inability to get them off the ship and to a decent hospital  That ship continues towards Fl with at least 2 more seriously ill passengers who have been refused evacuation to land-based hospitals, and the governor of FL has made it clear he does not want them in FL.

 

I have posted elsewhere that the cruise industry has encountered a "perfect storm" of circumstances that may well doom the industry.  Not only do we have the virus but we also have ports around the world closing their doors to any cruise ship.  Nobody knows if and when any of these ports will reopen.  We had 4 major cruises booked this year.  The first was a 30 day HAL cruise in April that was cancelled by HAL.  The 2nd is a 16 day Princess cruise in August that will either be cancelled by Princess or me...since the reasons we booked that cruise have now been cancelled.   The 3rd is a 28 day Princess cruise in October, from Civitavecchia to Singapore that is now questionable.  And the 4th is a 2 week MSC Caribbean cruise in December which might actually happen if MSC manages to stay in business and some of the Caribbean ports reopen.  

 

I post all this info to emphasize that the situation in really bleak for the entire industry.  CCL, which probably has the deepest pockets of anyone in the industry has been working at raising another $7 Billion is cash, on top of at least another $3 Billion in current credit lines.  That is a lot of money and is obviously a desperate move to survive what they see as a horrible year.   If they are worried, then we should also be worried.

 

Hank

[gerryuk]

On 4/1/2020 at 7:58 PM, Hlitner said:

And the 4th is a 2 week MSC Caribbean cruise in December which might actually happen if MSC manages to stay in business and some of the Caribbean ports reopen.  

 

 

Don't worry about MSC, they are going no ware. They are probably the safest, out of all the cruise lines to stay afloat. MSC cruises are just a small part of MSC. MSC are the worlds second largest container ship business, you will have no worries sailing with them. 

[Nic6318]

31 minutes ago, gerryuk said:

Don't worry about MSC, they are going no ware. They are probably the safest, out of all the cruise lines to stay afloat. MSC cruises are just a small part of MSC. MSC are the worlds second largest container ship business, you will have no worries sailing with them. 

 

Hi 

 

I would tend to agree. If the company wishes, their ships will be sailing long after others have gone bust. Who knows, they might be buying up those other companies that fail. Cruise ships are indeed only a small part of their operations.

[iancal]

Three questions.  Will the cruise lines be operating, will some cruise lines disappear, and even if they can operate will the demand be there.

 

It would not surprise me if there is some consolidation and some that disappear into the mists of time.  Same for the airlines, especially some of the the smaller LC regional airlines  in Europe and Asia.

 

We in North America are at the very start of this scourge.  I expect the next few months to be extremely challenging.  

[lenquixote66]

On 3/29/2020 at 7:31 PM, TRAVELBUGCRUISER said:

Hey Everyone

My cruise is planned for later this year. The more Im reading people are suggesting all cruises will be suspended for the rest of the year at some point. Whats the consensus on that in this community?

Thanks

I have a cruise booked for December.It was to be my very last cruise due to health issued.Now I am 90 percent sure that the cruise will be cancelled.

[clo]

19 minutes ago, iancal said:

Same for the airlines,

Just saw this yesterday.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/april-long-haul-routes-american-delta-hawaiian-united-airlines/