Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

[sverigecruiser]

6 hours ago, Corliss said:

Europe is already planning the first stage of their reopening.

 

In Sweden almost nothing has closed!

 

Most schools are open and all shops and restaurants are allowed to stay open with some restrictions.

 

We are recommended to stay at home but no real restrictions so far.

 

Events with more than 50 people are not allowed.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by sverigecruiser

[Roger88]

1 minute ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

In Sweden almost nothing has closed!

 

Most schools are open and all shops and restaurants are allowed to stay open with some restrictions.

 

We are recommended to stay at home but no real restrictions so far.

 

Events with more than 50 people are not allowed.

 

You can google Corona or Covid 19 in Sweden to found out what other countries think about our "experiment".

Your information is not all correct. The reason you are not as affected is because your country is not a popular travel destiantion. Also, sweds are not really into travel too far from home and what is more important you dont ocassionally gather in big groups to do stuff. I am afraid that you might be hit the most if it reaches Scnadinavia. I hope it wont happen of cource but I dont like experimenting either 

[bouhunter]

14 hours ago, yankees111 said:

You must be smoking the good stuff or living in a serious fantasy land if you think cruises are gonna start up in May or June!

But it's all about that flat curve 😁

[4774Papa]

6 hours ago, Corliss said:

Europe is already planning the first stage of their reopening.

 

How Europe is planning to lift the lockdown: Austria will open small shops next week, Denmark wants 'staggered' return to work and Germany could re-open schools if infection rate stays low

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8191185/Austria-Denmark-plan-lift-lockdown-restrictions-week.html

 

Norway cleared to gradually reopen

https://www.newsinenglish.no/2020/04/07/norway-cleared-to-gradually-reopen/

Thanks for the links.  I expect reopening will not be just willy nilly.    It will be gradual with restrictions and sound procedures.  School will likely open in August, probably with screening and some testing.  If shops are opened, the social distancing will be required and hopefully everyone will have a mask of some kind.  

[sverigecruiser]

9 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Your information is not all correct. The reason you are not as affected is because your country is not a popular travel destiantion. Also, sweds are not really into travel too far from home and what is more important you dont ocassionally gather in big groups to do stuff. I am afraid that you might be hit the most if it reaches Scnadinavia. I hope it wont happen of cource but I dont like experimenting either 

 

My information is correct but maybe you didn't understood what I said! (That can absolutely be my fault!)

 

We are affected but our government has decided not to close everything down. The most recent number of deaths I heared was 687 with a population of 10.000.000.

 

Denmark, Norway and Finland have much more restrictions than Sweden.

 

Swedes are defenitely into travelling far from home.

Edited April 8, 2020 by sverigecruiser

[rabidstoat]

In following the Coral Princess saga, the requirements (I think set forth by CDC but not sure who is mandating them) is that the cruise line must get non-sick passengers home without using any commercial US flights. This means they have to contract potentially dozen of charter flights to get people to airports somewhere near their home in the US, and then arrange ground transportation to their house. International passengers just get chartered out of the country to some international airport. And those who are sick are either hospitalized if seriously ill, or else left on the ship to quarantine until well.

 

This, I imagine, is a huge logistical nightmare and expense. Cruising is shut down now, of course, but if cruising were up and running this would impact one or more future cruises.

 

Are these mandates going to stay in effect for the foreseeable future? And if so, does it mean that if anyone onboard exhibits flu-like symptoms those who are sick are giving covid tests, and even one positive triggers the need to charter flight everyone home while disrupting future cruises? It doesn't seem like the risk is worth it for cruise lines to open if there's not a vaccine, in this case. Every cruise would be risking a huge expense and logistical nightmare, as well as impact to future operations.

[Corliss]

If this resolves the way it is beginning to look like it will I think the fear that is now being experienced world wide will abate over time to a large degree.  A virus that is asymtomatic in 25-50% of cases (depending on what stats you want to believe) and similar to a case of influenza for 45-70% of those infected will lose it's ability to panic everyone.  The 5% who are seriously affected (elderly and people with comorbidities) will avoid large gatherings and will be aggressively treated (hydrozychloroquine/Zpak/Zinc) early on should they become infected despite their best efforts to be cautious.  That protocol has "lessened severity and shortened duration" in both observational studies and in the one randomized double blind clinical trial that has been done already.  In the interim scientists will work on developing a vaccine.

 

Influenza kills 20,000-60,000 per year and we have adapted to that.  I think we will adapt. 

[logan25]

1 hour ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

The most recent number of deaths I heard was 687 with a population of 10.000.000.

 

 

Admittedly 687 is a much less "scary" total number of deaths compared to the current US total of over 11,000.

 

However to compare results country to country, we could look at deaths per capita:

 

Sweden:  .00687%      (population 10,000,000)

US:          .003353%    (population 328,000,000)

 

Comparison could also be made by extrapolating Sweden's total number of death if their population were equivalent to US.  In that case, Sweden's total number of deaths would be over 22,000.

[ray98]

None of models on land matters.....cruising creates a somewhat unique environment and one infected person can create chaos.

 

This is reality...."Passengers to be evacuated from Antarctic cruise ship after almost 60% test positive for coronavirus".

[Laszlo]

Coming to a cruise ship near you if they are not careful!

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/americas/greg-mortimer-cruise-ship-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Australian and New Zealand passengers will be evacuated from a stricken Antarctic cruise ship Thursday, after almost 60% of those on board tested positive for the coronavirus. 

The Greg Mortimer, a cruise liner operated by Australia's Aurora Expeditions, departed March 15 on a voyage to Antarctica and South Georgia. Since the beginning of April, however, the ship has been stuck off the coast of Uruguay, after authorities refused to allow passengers to disembark due to the risk of coronavirus. 

Of the 217 people on board, 128 passengers and crew have now tested positive for the virus. 

Six passengers requiring specialized care have been transferred to medical facilities in Montevideo -- a video posted online by the Uruguayan navy showed them being transferred from ship to ship wearing full protective gear.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Laszlo

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Of 2021?

its easy to stay in the doom and gloom thinking, but it will start to ease up with the warm weather especially ports like florida and galveston . business's will be eager to get going again.  this thing will pass . they will start off with just a few cruises to the bahamas or caribbean and take it from there. it may not happen in may but im thinking by  this summer . 

[Corliss]

2 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

In Sweden almost nothing has closed!

 

Most schools are open and all shops and restaurants are allowed to stay open with some restrictions.

 

We are recommended to stay at home but no real restrictions so far.

 

Events with more than 50 people are not allowed.

 

It will be interesting to see how Sweden's experiment with "herd immunity" works out.  Seems to be going okay, so far.  They are going to derive one benefit from it for sure.  They will avoid destroying their economy.

[Jobeth66]

19 hours ago, Laszlo said:

Once the quick test start rolling I can see them being given before you are allowed to board. After that I can see you needing a doctors note or a certificate saying you were vaccinated to board

 

I don't.  There's no way they're going to 'quick test' thousands of people before they board, as they debark at each port, and again before they re-board at each port.  In addition, I don't know if anyone knows what the length of time is between when one is exposed and when one will test positive.  So if I'm exposed by (say) the Uber driver on my way to the port, will it show as positive on that quick test before I board?  Or if I'm exposed in a port, will it show positive before I reboard the ship?

 

It's just not feasible to test everyone that often, and I don't see the cruise lines doing so.

[NormanW]

Data manipulation to keep stocks from falling precipitously into an unrecoverable abyss. 😉

 

Cheers,

 

Norman

[dexddd]

2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Here is Coastal Georgia our county of 85,000 population has 30 cases and most are not serious and those people are quarantined at home.

 

Everything is shut down except restaurants for takeout, grocery stores, seafood markets (selling local fish and shrimp), pharmacies and hardware stores.

 

My mailbox collapsed due to rust, so I had to replace it.  I went to Lowe's and there was a control to keep a smaller number from going in the store.  You waited in line separated by more than six feet.   I went in the store, did my business, never came closer than 6 ft from anyone (there was a plexiglass partition protecting the sales clerk on checkout.  I wore my mask and gloves.  

Don't see a problem with that.

NCL thanks you for that so they can continue to send near daily, well under these times less frequent, flyers.  For your convenience, of course.

[JustAPilot]

Think of it this way to, no cruise line is going to operate with a ship half full. They will be losing more money then just staying idle and not paying for fuel, crew and supplies. Until there is a proven vaccine or treatment, no one is going to be jumping to the thought of travelling on a ship with the masses.

 

If I asked you right now if you wanted to be on a ship with 3,000 others, you would laugh in my face, while wearing a mask.

[JoeTec]

• 7 hours ago, Corliss said:

  And the New York/New Jersey area is responsible for approximately half of all the cases of infection and half of the death rates in the whole country.  And, even so, over the last several days hospitializations, ICU beds being used and intubations in New York have all gone down.

   this is why New York & New Jersey are responsible for so many cases.  We have 3 major airports 

CORONAVIRUS NEW YORK

Coronavirus News: How international travel left NY vulnerable

 

 

 

 

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Danielle Leigh has more on the data that shows how international travel left New York vulnerable.

 

 

By Danielle Leigh and John Kelly and Steven Cioffi

Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:20PM

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Analysis of flight records from December 2019 through March 2020 shows how New York's status as an international destination left it vulnerable to high coronavirus infection rates.

The 7 On Your Side Investigates data team, along with ABC News, examined more than 20 million flight records from the tracking service Flightradar-24 and identified thousands of flights into the US and specifically the New York Metro area from cities in Asia and Europe just as coronavirus was overwhelming those foreign cities and making its way into the United States.

 

The flights carried hundreds of thousands of passengers who could have been carriers of COVID-19.

From December through March, airlines made more than 3,200 direct flights from China to the U.S.

One out of five of those flights landed in the New York area.

About 50 of those flights, originated in Wuhan, China; where COVID-19 was first identified. Nearly half of those flights from Wuhan landed at John F. Kennedy International Airport.

Other flights originating from other countries that have also struggled with the virus, such as Italy and Spain, also made regular stops in the New York area.

 

Our analysis indicates around 3,700 flights originated from Spain or Italy and traveled to the U.S.

Roughly three out of five of the flights from Italy landed in the New York area and roughly two out of five flights from Spain also landed in one of the three major New York-area airports.

[yankees111]

57 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

its easy to stay in the doom and gloom thinking, but it will start to ease up with the warm weather especially ports like florida and galveston . business's will be eager to get going again.  this thing will pass . they will start off with just a few cruises to the bahamas or caribbean and take it from there. it may not happen in may but im thinking by  this summer . 

There is no doom and gloom thinking. Just reality. Cruising will return at some point but not anytime soon and certainly not by this summer.

[sverigecruiser]

48 minutes ago, Corliss said:

It will be interesting to see how Sweden's experiment with "herd immunity" works out.  Seems to be going okay, so far.  They are going to derive one benefit from it for sure.  They will avoid destroying their economy.

 

We don't have a "herd immunity" experiment. Don't believe everything Donald Trump say!  

[Corliss]

22 minutes ago, JoeTec said:

•  this is why New York & New Jersey are responsible for so many cases.  We have 3 major airports 

CORONAVIRUS NEW YORK

Coronavirus News: How international travel left NY vulnerable

 

 

 

 

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Danielle Leigh has more on the data that shows how international travel left New York vulnerable.

 

 

By Danielle Leigh and John Kelly and Steven Cioffi

Tuesday, April 7, 2020 9:20PM

NEW YORK (WABC) -- Analysis of flight records from December 2019 through March 2020 shows how New York's status as an international destination left it vulnerable to high coronavirus infection rates.

The 7 On Your Side Investigates data team, along with ABC News, examined more than 20 million flight records from the tracking service Flightradar-24 and identified thousands of flights into the US and specifically the New York Metro area from cities in Asia and Europe just as coronavirus was overwhelming those foreign cities and making its way into the United States.

 

The flights carried hundreds of thousands of passengers who could have been carriers of COVID-19.

From December through March, airlines made more than 3,200 direct flights from China to the U.S.

One out of five of those flights landed in the New York area.

About 50 of those flights, originated in Wuhan, China; where COVID-19 was first identified. Nearly half of those flights from Wuhan landed at John F. Kennedy International Airport.

Other flights originating from other countries that have also struggled with the virus, such as Italy and Spain, also made regular stops in the New York area.

 

Our analysis indicates around 3,700 flights originated from Spain or Italy and traveled to the U.S.

Roughly three out of five of the flights from Italy landed in the New York area and roughly two out of five flights from Spain also landed in one of the three major New York-area airports.

YIKES!!  I guess the best mitigation strategy for New York would have been closing the airports.  I had no idea that 50 flights from Wuhan came in.  The media just keeps writing about one Chinese American coming back to Seattle from Wuhan as the source for our involvement in the pandemic.  Apparently he had a lot of company.  Thanks for the info.

[mking8288]

Good news, hopefully from NY today, our state appeared to be flattening the curves based on a 3 day trend - behind each number, as our governor said, is a face.  Behind each number is a family.  Many of them, first responders.  It is not the same curves & trending for other states and other parts of the country - they've yet to bring theirs under control, looking at their numbers.  Death rates *** still going up and going to remain high for a while in the NY/NJ area - don't think for a moment that this global pandemic crisis is over and this is no worst than the annual seasonal flu.  

 

Here is a preview of what future cruising is going to be like for some of us ... since, if this is replicated across the world and here in old USA.  

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5257/?source=132229&fbclid=IwAR0KFs4dHmlKx2aiXMsjvCiK4PMilInqIKoZJHIMYjx3V_ESWiI9iBmXbWU

 

Pay attention to the provisioning about a signed medical certification about "fit to cruise (travel)"  There is going to be a #cough #cough, probably, a few more CPAP users as recovered C19 survivors with reduced lung functions and the odds of them getting a clean bill of health & cleared to cruise, are low to none.  Harsh realities, sorry.  That's fine by us and we can and going to live with those restrictions for better days ahead.  

 

All these, based on what "if's" and not definitive; and rest assured, the new "normal" is not going back to status quo.  For older/mature adults (healthy "seniors") - cruising is going to be more challenging for some & maybe, out of the question for a limited segment.  For the millennials, younger age cohorts, cruising might not be a priority in the near future ... unless they are weathering this year's pandemic, catch up with their financials and ready to take vacations and cruise again.  

 

Meanwhile, start making those DIY face masks - odds are good that we will need that while standing in lines, waiting for our priority/P/P+ pier check-in and embarkation, and sitting elbows to elbows in the Stardust Theater for the evening shows to come on.  

 

*** 779 deaths reported in NYS, attributed to C19 in the last 24 hours - it was 731 in the prior 24 hours.  RIP.  Let's go back to debate the curves ... carry on. 

Edited April 8, 2020 by mking8288

[seaman11]

16 hours ago, pokerpro5 said:

Cruising will not be deemed safe until it is near-certain that the coronavirus is not a threat.

 

This will either be via an effective vaccine (sometime in 2021) or very reliable test (both antibody and regular).

 

Cruise ships are EXTREMELY susceptible to spreading viruses.  "Flattening" does not mean we're close to past the pandemic.  It means that daily cases aren't increasing, meaning that hospitals can better handle the influx.

 

I cannot see cruise ships going at any time in 2020, and if it does happen, it will be late 2020.

 

There is also a fair chance NCL and other lines will collapse  You should NOT book any new cruises now, and you should NOT take FCCs instead of refunds.

who is mandating that?  no one is going to be policing them not to start up again till every case is wiped out, if the ports are open they will slowly start. 

[npcl]

5 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

In Sweden almost nothing has closed!

 

Most schools are open and all shops and restaurants are allowed to stay open with some restrictions.

 

We are recommended to stay at home but no real restrictions so far.

 

Events with more than 50 people are not allowed.

 

Well Sweden reported 726 new cases today with 96 new deaths. Sweden's death rate is 68 per million population compared with 40 per million in the US.

[npcl]

7 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

who is mandating that?  no one is going to be policing them not to start up again till every case is wiped out, if the ports are open they will slowly start. 

if the ports open.  Don't think the major embarkation ports in the US are exactly happy with the cruise lines right now and are not in any hurry to open.

 

Also unclear how fast any of the destination ports will open.

[seaman11]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

if the ports open.  Don't think the major embarkation ports in the US are exactly happy with the cruise lines right now and are not in any hurry to open.

 

Also unclear how fast any of the destination ports will open.

my guess is they will take things slow with a couple of cruises to non threatening places, like the bahamas for example .  ports miss the cruise money as well , its a business for all.  but im not suggesting they will go right back to cruises all over the world