How will ships get to Europe for Fall 2020 TAs

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

On 4/16/2020 at 8:23 PM, beg3yrs said:

 

I don't think they'll go into a cold layup. Maybe a warm one. According to chengkp75 the cold layup is very involved and expensive both to establish it and to come out of. For this relatively short duration as far as cruise liners are concerned, they'll keep them reasonably operational until they're ready for service.

 

Hank is absolutely correct.

 

From Carnival's own SEC statement:

 

 "We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

   Hank is also accurate when he observes that there's pretty deep denial by some folks about the extent of the coronavirus crisis.
 

    I completely understand hating it & wishing it weren't so ... but adults know that this doesn't change the outside reality. The global crisis is with us for a while,

and cruising will not be restarting

any time soon.

 

[CCFC]

The Crown and the Regal should already be in Europe but are at Anchor off Florida. My cruise in July is looking distinctly iffy.

[leck57]

11 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I really think that many folks are in denial about the COVID-19 situation.  To the best of my knowledge I am not aware of any reputable authority who thinks this virus is going to disappear in the next few months or even the next year.  How can cruise ships operate in an environment where COVID-19 still exists?  A temperature check at embarkation is certainly a good idea, but far from an effective measure to guarantee nobody with COVID-19 gets aboard a ship.  Even the fast tests for COVID-19 apparently have some problems with false negatives.    If the cruise lines do start cruising before there is a reliable vaccine for COVID-19, it will be like rolling the dice that nobody onboard has that virus.  But what happens if even a single person on the ship develops COVID-19 symptoms?  I would assume the cruise line would have to immediately confine everyone to their cabins and then start searching for a port willing to accept the ship.  Does this sound familiar?   

 

There may also be a problem attracting crew to work on these ships.  Look what has happened to crew members.  As of a week ago there were an estimated 90,000 crew members trapped on ships in just the area adjacent to the USA.  There have already been some reports of unhappy crew members who simply want to go home...but are trapped on their ship.  Are they all getting their full pay adjusted for the absence of tips?  Once the cruise lines finally get these crew members to their homes, are they going to want to return to ships?  I do not know the answer and would assume some will want to work on the ships and many others will want no part of the cruise industry.

 

Hank

 

I think you've nailed it Hank, and I think I was one of those people "in denial" for a while.

After having three cruises cancelled and watching the virus keep spreading, cruise companies would be mad to start sailing. Imagine the press if one line starts up and the ship is wracked with virus affected passengers. Their business would be shot.

We have decided that until the virus dies off completely (which it won't for a while) or there is a vaccine, no cruising for us.

[1965]

On 4/16/2020 at 6:17 PM, ShibaInuMom said:

We are booked on the Island Princess May 27 from Florida to Southampton, via the Norwegian Fjords.  We know that cruise will be canceled.  I'm wondering about our TA in November from Europe to FL.

 

We're on the Crown, departing Nov. 23, Southampton to Ft. L. Is that the one you're on?

[Roberto256]

On 4/17/2020 at 4:14 PM, Roberto256 said:

I messaged with someone on sky.

 

Right now, they think the ship will be going to europe.

As Mr. Caribill mentioned, probably with no passengers;

but possibly re-patriating europeans from the princess ships in the bahamas.

 

I don't know anything about any revenue cruises.

 

 

Right now, Royal Princess is alongside in San Pedro.

 

Grand and Star are in San Pedro anchorage.

 

Rumor for today ... Star will collect all europeans from the three ships, than transit Panama Canal,

and sail to Great Isaac Cay anchorage in the Bahamas.

 

Either Royal or Sky will collect all europeans, and sail to europe to re-patriate european crew.

 

 

 

 

[1emerald1]

The rumor I read is that the Star is collecting Fillipinos and sailing them back to the Phillipines.

[ontheweb]

On 4/17/2020 at 6:28 PM, Hlitner said:

I really think that many folks are in denial about the COVID-19 situation.  To the best of my knowledge I am not aware of any reputable authority who thinks this virus is going to disappear in the next few months or even the next year.  How can cruise ships operate in an environment where COVID-19 still exists?  A temperature check at embarkation is certainly a good idea, but far from an effective measure to guarantee nobody with COVID-19 gets aboard a ship.  Even the fast tests for COVID-19 apparently have some problems with false negatives.    If the cruise lines do start cruising before there is a reliable vaccine for COVID-19, it will be like rolling the dice that nobody onboard has that virus.  But what happens if even a single person on the ship develops COVID-19 symptoms?  I would assume the cruise line would have to immediately confine everyone to their cabins and then start searching for a port willing to accept the ship.  Does this sound familiar?   

 

There may also be a problem attracting crew to work on these ships.  Look what has happened to crew members.  As of a week ago there were an estimated 90,000 crew members trapped on ships in just the area adjacent to the USA.  There have already been some reports of unhappy crew members who simply want to go home...but are trapped on their ship.  Are they all getting their full pay adjusted for the absence of tips?  Once the cruise lines finally get these crew members to their homes, are they going to want to return to ships?  I do not know the answer and would assume some will want to work on the ships and many others will want no part of the cruise industry.

 

Hank

Given the bad publicity cruise lines have already received, I have trouble imagining how bad it will be if they restart and the same stuff happens. I think that would pretty much destroy any chance of them regaining any significant share of the travel industry.

 

And I'm sure the news media would just love to run these types of negative stories again.

[Coral]

I think Alaska and Europe are scrapped for this season. I think the cruise season will start with the Caribbean in November/December time frame at the earliest.

[1emerald1]

3 minutes ago, Coral said:

I think Alaska and Europe are scrapped for this season. I think the cruise season will start with the Caribbean in November/December time frame at the earliest.

What about this fall Mexico cruises? Do you think that will happen?

[Coral]

Just now, 1emerald1 said:

What about this fall Mexico cruises? Do you think that will happen?

I am purely guessing, obviously. I am not basing this on any real information.

 

I don't know. I also wonder about Canada NE cruises. I think September is too early.  I think November is realistic. October iffy.

 

Again, purely guessing.

[1emerald1]

I have a 10/25 Mexico booked and am doubtful that it will happen, but am optimistically hoping you are right. And like you say , at this point no one knows.

[bluesea321]

17 hours ago, HappyCruiserettu said:

The US no-sail order runs till late-June. That is why Princess and others have cancelled thru the last few days in June. The order originally was for 100 days, but, the next day CDC shortened that to 80 days. 

 

Not so.  Attached as a PDF is the No Sail Order which was published on the Federal Register on April 15.  It runs for 100 days from the publication date, July 24, unless the CDC rescinds it, unlikely.

No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships.pdf

[AL3XCruise]

19 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

Hank is absolutely correct.

 

From Carnival's own SEC statement:

 

 "We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

 

Actually, there isn't really enough information to know who is correct.  CCL has not, to my knowledge, explicitly defined what type of layup the ships will be in.  "Cold Layup" has a specific meaning within the industry, and I haven't seen any major cruise line use that term.  Some media outlets have, but reporters frequently use industry terms incorrectly so I'd be hesitant to put much weight on those claims.

[rdsqrl]

3 hours ago, Coral said:

I think Alaska and Europe are scrapped for this season. I think the cruise season will start with the Caribbean in November/December time frame at the earliest.

Agree . . . although I think it's very possible that even the Caribbean is iffy:  I can see small islands who've contained the virus among their own population being very, very reluctant to allow thousands of passengers to disembark.  

 

I'm already resigned to my holiday cruise being a no-go this year.  My wants have gotten smaller:  At this point, I'd just be happy if I'm able to get back to my office by December!

[caribill]

5 hours ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Not so.  Attached as a PDF is the No Sail Order which was published on the Federal Register on April 15.  It runs for 100 days from the publication date, July 24, unless the CDC rescinds it, unlikely.

No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships.pdf 107.47 kB · 3 downloads

 

And this link explains how that was shortened to 80 days

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/04/13/coronavirus-cruise-ships-saw-red-flags-amid-chaotic-federal-response/2937001001/

 

[Coral]

I am now thinking cruising won't start until 2021.

[voljeep]

Ensenada Mexico, Princess Cay Bahama, Amber Cove, DR may be used for 'test'/shakedown' cruises whenever it does resume - at least in the united states

[bluesea321]

9 hours ago, caribill said:

And this link explains how that was shortened to 80 days

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/04/13/coronavirus-cruise-ships-saw-red-flags-amid-chaotic-federal-response/2937001001/

 

 

The USA article was inaccurate.  Here is the Federal Register official website.  You can download the PDF from them and see.

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-07930/no-sail-order-and-suspension-of-further-embarkation-notice-of-modification-and-extension-and-other

 

The order was officially published in the FR on April 15 and says:

 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a component of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), announces a modification and extension of the No Sail Order and Other Measures Related to Operations that was previously issued on March 14, 2020—subject to the modifications and additional stipulated conditions set forth in this Order. The Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency; the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations; or 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register.

[chengkp75]

On 4/18/2020 at 2:46 AM, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

Hank is absolutely correct.

 

From Carnival's own SEC statement:

 

 "We currently estimate the substantial majority of our fleet will be in prolonged ship layup."

   Hank is also accurate when he observes that there's pretty deep denial by some folks about the extent of the coronavirus crisis.
 

    I completely understand hating it & wishing it weren't so ... but adults know that this doesn't change the outside reality. The global crisis is with us for a while,

and cruising will not be restarting

any time soon.

 

Sorry, much as I traditionally agree with Hank, I would doubt that any cruise ship enters "cold lay up" this year or any year.  "Cold lay up, means sealing up the ship, dehumidifying it, and turning off all power.  That just ain't gonna happen.  What most ships will do is "warm lay up", where the crew is reduced to minimum and the power is kept on and the minimum services needed to maintain proper humidity levels in the ship will continue.  Cold lay up can take weeks to months to prepare for and execute, and the same when starting up again, and almost always still comes with damage to the ship from excess humidity.  Carnival's statement says "prolonged ship lay up", it does not say "cold lay up".

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Sorry, much as I traditionally agree with Hank, I would doubt that any cruise ship enters "cold lay up" this year or any year.  "Cold lay up, means sealing up the ship, dehumidifying it, and turning off all power.  That just ain't gonna happen.  What most ships will do is "warm lay up", where the crew is reduced to minimum and the power is kept on and the minimum services needed to maintain proper humidity levels in the ship will continue.  Cold lay up can take weeks to months to prepare for and execute, and the same when starting up again, and almost always still comes with damage to the ship from excess humidity.  Carnival's statement says "prolonged ship lay up", it does not say "cold lay up".

Your definitions are helpful. And if they did at some point do the cold lay ups, I think we could expect cruising to be gone for a very, very long time.

[voljeep]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Sorry, much as I traditionally agree with Hank, I would doubt that any cruise ship enters "cold lay up" this year or any year.  "Cold lay up, means sealing up the ship, dehumidifying it, and turning off all power.  That just ain't gonna happen.  What most ships will do is "warm lay up", where the crew is reduced to minimum and the power is kept on and the minimum services needed to maintain proper humidity levels in the ship will continue.  Cold lay up can take weeks to months to prepare for and execute, and the same when starting up again, and almost always still comes with damage to the ship from excess humidity.  Carnival's statement says "prolonged ship lay up", it does not say "cold lay up".

how long does a "cruise" ship need to be planned to be out of service to induce a cold lay up ?

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

how long does a "cruise" ship need to be planned to be out of service to induce a cold lay up ?

Years.

[voljeep]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Cold lay up can take weeks to months to prepare for and execute, and the same when starting up again,

Years ?

 

what's the difference in costs of having a ship in cold lay up for a year, and having the same ship in a warm lay up ?

[beg3yrs]

1 hour ago, voljeep said:

how long does a "cruise" ship need to be planned to be out of service to induce a cold lay up ?

 

7 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Years.

 

3 minutes ago, voljeep said:

Years ?

 

what's the difference in costs of having a ship in cold lay up for a year, and having the same ship in a warm lay up ?

 

That's going to be a tough question even for chengkp75 as there are so many 'it depends' factors.

 

I would think costs are going to be much different (i.e. higher) for a cruise ship than for a cargo ship. All those nice furnishings in the passenger areas are going to have much more attention paid to them in a cold layup. With no A/C or de-humidification, can you imagine all the mold that would start to grow? Carpets, upholstery, mattresses, wall coverings and so on, the list just goes on and on.

 

IMHO, putting a cruise ship into cold layup is pretty much saying you don't ever expect to use the ship again but ... just in case a miracle occurs ...

[voljeep]

3 minutes ago, beg3yrs said:

With no A/C or de-humidification, can you imagine all the mold that would start to grow? Carpets, upholstery, mattresses, wall coverings and so on, the list just goes on and on.

exactly ... a "cruise" ship that needs to undergo a major rejuvenation would be a perfect candidate for such a cold lay up

 

then … wait for it ...

 

COME BACK NEW !!!!