When will things start back up?

[Poly Grad Sweethearts]

Even if you go on a cruise who is to say that any of the shore excursions, private or ship, are happening or even if the port is open? So I fly a long flight , get on the ship and then?

[Flatbush Flyer]

20 minutes ago, Poly Grad Sweethearts said:

Even if you go on a cruise who is to say that any of the shore excursions, private or ship, are happening or even if the port is open? So I fly a long flight , get on the ship and then?

...and then...? 

And then you find out why the choice of ship in general and quality of onboard life in particular really do matter as much as any other factor in choosing a cruise.

Right now, "getting out of Dodge" (i.e., away from home) is very attractive for all of the obvious reasons. And as we are looking at cruises for 2021, itinerary is taking somewhat of a back seat to quality of onboard life. Though we still prefer new and/or favorite ports, we want the excellent food, heavenly cabin amenities, stellar service and low passenger loads with like minded travelers. It's what we're used to and what we want -  if for no other reason than to get away but do it right.

[Floridastorm]

On 6/12/2020 at 12:05 PM, Hlitner said:

All true.  Many decisions in life and travel are about one's degree of risk aversion.  For example, you apparently live in the Bay area where the risk of a major earthquake is great.  I would not take that chance.  But with COVID-19, Norovirus, flu, etc. etc. we accept that disease is just part of life.  Taking reasonable precautions to minimize the threat of disease is something most of us accept.  But it is the "reasonable" issue that is debatable.  We live in Puerto Vallarta for part of the year and love the place.  But in that city we must accept the risk of earthquakes, floods. Dengue Fever, parasites, etc.  It is a risk we willingly accept.  How we should deal with the COVID-19 threat is still a question mark.  But I am making the assumption that COVID-19 will be with us for years and it will likely be at least 3 years until there is POSSIBLY a safe/effective vaccine.  DW and I are not prepared to keep our heads in the sand for that length of time.

 

Our personal internal debate is whether a cruise vacation is reasonable now or anytime in the future.  If we accept that it is not reasonable now, it will likely not be reasonable for many years!  And it is the same with travel.  Since we are passionate about travel and cruising, and are not getting younger, we are willing to accept some of the COVID-19 risk.  But we are still assessing what is "reasonable" given our own risk tolerance.

 

Hank

In addition to the things that you innumerate let me add a couple of facts:

From everything that I have studied there are no vaccines for any of the SARS and MERS type viruses of which Covid-19 is one. The only vaccine that I am aware of is the common flu vaccine which is only 40% effective and where only 52% of Americans agree to get vaccinated. The other 48% don't want it due to possible side affects. By the way, the common flu arrives in the US every winter. The Stats are 40 million cases, 300,000 hospitalizations, and in some years as much as 70,000 deaths. Very similar to the stats for Covid-19. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm. So, there will probably be no vaccine for Covid-19. . If people are waiting for a vaccine or a "cure" I guess they won't be cruising again or doing much of anything outside of their own homes. The body's immune system is the only vaccine or cure for a virus just like it has been for millions of years. Ask any doctor and they will enlighten you. 😉

Edited June 16, 2020 by Floridastorm

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

From everything that I have studied there are no vaccines for any of the SARS and MERS type viruses of which Covid-19 is one.

They may be related but caused no way near the problem COVID is causing and have not been a recurrent problem. Neither one caused the horrific health and economic global destruction as COVID is (neither does the flu, despite whatever the number of annual deaths may be in a particular years).That may be the reason why the intensity of search and persistence between these pursuits for COVID vaccine are different than for SARS or MERS.

 

2 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

The only vaccine that I am aware of is the common flu vaccine which is only 40% effective and where only 52% of Americans agree to get vaccinated. The other 48% don't want it due to possible side affects. By the way, the common flu arrives in the US every winter. The Stats are 40 million cases, 300,000 hospitalizations, and in some years as much as 70,000 deaths. Very similar to the stats for Covid-19 are different than for SARS or MERS   Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Speaking for myself. I have been taking the flu vaccine annually for many, many years without any side effects or getting the flu.

If the COVID vaccine was "only" as effective as the flu vaccine is, I would gladly take it and hope for the same results.

Do you want to know the REAL difference between the flu and COVID? Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% - COVID is at least 10 times higher but usually more than that (ranging from about 1% to 14% ) - that "little fact" you forgot to mention.  And no, the stats are not similar at all - 70,000 dying of flu is an extreme case (Last year was the highest in 40 years at 80,000 - average is between 12,000 to 56,000).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

With COVID we are already at 116,000+ and nowhere near the end yet - who knows what the final tally will be.. 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

2 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

So, there will probably be no vaccine for Covid-19. . If people are waiting for a vaccine or a "cure" I guess they won't be cruising again or doing much of anything outside of their own homes.

Actually the preliminary results are promising. Granted, that is not a proof of an effective vaccine but a good prospect.

As for cure, there is no vaccine for HIV but today HIV patients live a relatively normal life - more like a diabetic being treated with effective medications, albeit not cured. Just think what a diagnosis and life expectancy of HIV meant in the 80's vs today

Could this be eventually the case for COVID?

 

2 hours ago, Floridastorm said:

The body's immune system is the only vaccine or cure for a virus just like it has been for millions of years. Ask any doctor and they will enlighten you.

We have no idea about this at the moment. We are not even sure that those who survived COVID are immune to a second infection and if so, for how long. Time will tell us about herd immunity.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Paulchili

[ORV]

8 hours ago, Paulchili said:

They may be related but caused no way near the problem COVID is causing and have not been a recurrent problem. Neither one caused the horrific health and economic global destruction as COVID is (neither does the flu, despite whatever the number of annual deaths may be in a particular years).That may be the reason why the intensity of search and persistence between these pursuits for COVID vaccine are different than for SARS or MERS.

 

Speaking for myself. I have been taking the flu vaccine annually for many, many years without any side effects or getting the flu.

If the COVID vaccine was "only" as effective as the flu vaccine is, I would gladly take it and hope for the same results.

Do you want to know the REAL difference between the flu and COVID? Flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% - COVID is at least 10 times higher but usually more than that (ranging from about 1% to 14% ) - that "little fact" you forgot to mention.  And no, the stats are not similar at all - 70,000 dying of flu is an extreme case (Last year was the highest in 40 years at 80,000 - average is between 12,000 to 56,000).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

With COVID we are already at 116,000+ and nowhere near the end yet - who knows what the final tally will be.. 

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

Actually the preliminary results are promising. Granted, that is not a proof of an effective vaccine but a good prospect.

As for cure, there is no vaccine for HIV but today HIV patients live a relatively normal life - more like a diabetic being treated with effective medications, albeit not cured. Just think what a diagnosis and life expectancy of HIV meant in the 80's vs today

Could this be eventually the case for COVID?

 

We have no idea about this at the moment. We are not even sure that those who survived COVID are immune to a second infection and if so, for how long. Time will tell us about herd immunity.

There you go, using those pesky facts again. Those just ruin everything. 

[Paulchili]

18 minutes ago, ORV said:

There you go, using those pesky facts again. Those just ruin everything. 

Sorry but I can't help myself - it's one of my many vices 😀

[pinotlover]

Alcohol is a thief, a false friend, a hypnotizing deceiver. It legitimizes dark humor, dismantling natural inhibitions, diminishing spiritual appetites, increases crime, and mothering a vast throng of ills upon society. Children become unattended, untaught, I fed, underdressed, and unwanted, insuring the spread of its venom for generations to come!

 

I ain’t gonna sail no more , oh Lord;

I ain’t gonna sail No More!

I ain’t gonna sail no more Oh Loooooorrrd;

I ain’t gonna sail NO MORE!

 

Blah, Blah, Blah!

[KirkNC]

While both SARS and MERS are significantly more deadly then CV, they do not have the pre or asymptomatic contagious ability therefore it was more easily corralled.

 

On vaccines, I saw a survey result this morning  that said 50% would get a vaccine shot, 30% may and 20% would not.  If accurate, those figures will make it hard for the vaccine to provide herd immunity.

[Paulchili]

5 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

 If accurate, those figures will make it hard for the vaccine to provide herd immunity.

I am hoping that this will come from those "lucky" ones that become infected with no or little symptoms that do not even require hospitalization. There seems to be a fair number of such individuals. They are lucky but dangerous to others as they may not be aware of their illness and spread it to others.

[pinotlover]

Kirk;

 

As of the weekend the US at at 0.333% of the population having contacted the virus. Many of those with no symptoms. If we have a second wave , twice as large, that equals 0.666%, so combined we get to a whopping 1% of the population! We will be no where near herd immunity with so few taking the vaccine.

 

Only question then becomes: Do we continue to shut down society for those that don’t immunitize?

[KirkNC]

4 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Kirk;

 

As of the weekend the US at at 0.333% of the population having contacted the virus. Many of those with no symptoms. If we have a second wave , twice as large, that equals 0.666%, so combined we get to a whopping 1% of the population! We will be no where near herd immunity with so few taking the vaccine.

 

Only question then becomes: Do we continue to shut down society for those that don’t immunitize?

A few things, first the % that have test positive (you can’t say they are the only ones with the virus due to lack of testing) is 2.2 million.  The US has 331 million people so the known cases are actually.66%, not .33%. Medical professionals believe the number of those who have had the disease is actually significantly higher.  It would take decades at that rate for natural herd immunity but an effective vaccine if everyone got the shot would give us herd immunity.  The problem is 1)developing an effective vaccine (most take years), 2)manufacturing that vaccine in sufficient quantities and 3) getting all the knuckleheads that don’t want to take it to take it. Personally I don’t believe all three of those will happen.  I think we can operate a low level economy if people practice social distancing, practice proper hygiene and use masks otherwise it will be just like the Spanish flu with a couple of years of the virus with probably more the a million deaths.

[pinotlover]

Is a low level economy defined as you having a job but your neighbors unemployed?

 

This isn’t 1918. We won’t go two years with high unemployment in our large urban areas without massive unrest. 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

While both SARS and MERS are significantly more deadly then CV, they do not have the pre or asymptomatic contagious ability therefore it was more easily corralled.

 

On vaccines, I saw a survey result this morning  that said 50% would get a vaccine shot, 30% may and 20% would not.  If accurate, those figures will make it hard for the vaccine to provide herd immunity.

You can't directly compare the death rates of SARS and MERS to COVID-19. SARS was only contracted by a bit over 8,000 people,  with about a 10% mortality rate . MERS infected about 2,500 people with about 860 deaths. Both had a very limited geographic presence...kind of obvious given how few were infected by them...MERS occurring overwhelmingly on the Arabian peninsula... as opposed to COVID-19 having already infected more than 8 million people and being present in virtually every country. 

 

About half of the COVID-19 infections to date have occurred in countries with robust modern health care systems...the US, Canada and Western Europe . While they were overwhelmed at times early on due to volume overload, these countries have the medical resources and skills necessary to prevent the mortality rate from becoming worse than it already is. I'm not sure if the majority of COVID-19 cases were in the Arabian peninsula you'd be seeing a mortality rate as low as it is. It might look very much like MERS. Conversly,  If SARS and MERS ever had a significant presence in the US, Western Europe and Canada the mortality rate would likely have been far lower than it was.

 

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Alcohol is a thief, a false friend, a hypnotizing deceiver. It legitimizes dark humor, dismantling natural inhibitions, diminishing spiritual appetites, increases crime, and mothering a vast throng of ills upon society. Children become unattended, untaught, I fed, underdressed, and unwanted, insuring the spread of its venom for generations to come!

 

I ain’t gonna sail no more , oh Lord;

I ain’t gonna sail No More!

I ain’t gonna sail no more Oh Loooooorrrd;

I ain’t gonna sail NO MORE!

 

Blah, Blah, Blah!

And do not forget Yeast... a biological Satan in our midst

 

I never eat cookies because they have yeast

Because one little bite turns a man to a beast

Can you imagine.. the sorley disgrace

Of a man in the gutter.....with crumbs on his face !

[LHT28]

2 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Alcohol is a thief, a false friend, a hypnotizing deceiver. It legitimizes dark humor, dismantling natural inhibitions, diminishing spiritual appetites, increases crime, and mothering a vast throng of ills upon society. Children become unattended, untaught, I fed, underdressed, and unwanted, insuring the spread of its venom for generations to come!

 

 

Did you run out of meds ??  😲

[ORV]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

 I think we can operate a low level economy if people practice social distancing, practice proper hygiene and use masks otherwise it will be just like the Spanish flu with a couple of years of the virus with probably more the a million deaths.

You're giving people too much credit. Look around, where I live probably less than 10 % of the people are wearing masks. Of course it is a political thing, and we're an extremely red state. 

[Mura]

Back to the flu ...

 

My husband has always religiously gotten a flu shot.  I was far more sporadic in the past, although I HAVE gotten the shot for the past few years.  Well, I'm now in the age range where is very difficult if you get the flu ...

 

I've never had any side effects from the shot.  Back in the late '60s I caught the Hong Kong flu and I have never suffered as much with another illness as I did then.  It was mostly aches and pains as I recall, but I was totally miserable.  My office felt I was irreplaceable and called me back early ... so I suffered a relapse. After that they let me recover in peace.

 

As bad as that Hong Kong flu was (hey, was it really from Hong Kong?) I'm sure a real Covid-19 infection will be far worse.  So I await a vaccine, but I don't have many hopes that it will be soon ...

 

Mura

[CintiPam]

10 hours ago, pinotlover said:

Alcohol is a thief, a false friend, a hypnotizing deceiver. It legitimizes dark humor, dismantling natural inhibitions, diminishing spiritual appetites, increases crime, and mothering a vast throng of ills upon society. Children become unattended, untaught, I fed, underdressed, and unwanted, insuring the spread of its venom for generations to come!

 

I ain’t gonna sail no more , oh Lord;

I ain’t gonna sail No More!

I ain’t gonna sail no more Oh Loooooorrrd;

I ain’t gonna sail NO MORE!

 

Blah, Blah, Blah!

And the winner of my birthday week’s Oceania board post of the week (too soon to say month) is ... pinotlover.  Congratulations! 🎉 

[Fam_Cruise]

On 6/10/2020 at 3:59 PM, KS&JW said:

Sketchy information for sure, but this screenshot was posted on the NCL Facebook page before it was removed.  It is still floating around in the comments of various posts on FB and here on CC.  It was described as when crew are to be back on ships.   It matches published data points.  For a recent example,
https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23071-norwegian-cancels-six-months-of-jewel-sailings.html 
"Norwegian Cruise Line has announced that all scheduled Norwegian Jewel sailings from September 25, 2020 through February 27, 2021 have been canceled."   

 

This is just gossip, but juicy gossip.  

 

 

So much for Insignia re-launching on September 26:

We have extended the suspension of voyages on Regatta, Nautica, Sirena, Marina and Riviera to include those embarking between August 1 and September 30, 2020. Additionally on the Insignia, we’ve extended the suspension to include voyages embarking between October 1 and October 26, 2020.

[pinotlover]

I believe, for the person complaining about their cancelled Regatta Cruise, the above chart clearly says the Regatta isn’t sailing again until late next April. This eliminates the Australia circumnavigation over Christmas and a lot of cruises. People should be planning accordingly!

[Petoonya]

12 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I believe, for the person complaining about their cancelled Regatta Cruise, the above chart clearly says the Regatta isn’t sailing again until late next April. This eliminates the Australia circumnavigation over Christmas and a lot of cruises. People should be planning accordingly!

Just a question. On a percentage basis how much faith do you have that the chart is credible? After following this thread I'm going to guess about 75-80%. But curious to know what you and others think.....

Thanks.

[KS&JW]

11 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Just a question. On a percentage basis how much faith do you have that the chart is credible? After following this thread I'm going to guess about 75-80%. But curious to know what you and others think.....

Thanks.

 

I believe it is very credible.  HOWEVER, that does not mean that this schedule will happen.  Nobody knows what will happen.  Too many variables to be sure of anything.  They have to have a tentative plan and as was posted earlier, they probably have more than one tentative plan.  When they get more information they keep adjusting the plan.  

[Petoonya]

@KS&JW

Thanks. What I needed.

[jwindham]

I am booked on the Riviera leaving Miami on December 3. Today all categories went Waitlist except one. Yesterday all were open except two. So this make me believe that they will not be putting Riviera back in service until at least that December 20 sailing on the list we have seen. Or they are adjusting how many people are getting on the ship. Interesting at least. Julia

[Petoonya]

@jwindham

Well, just looked at what I've got booked too and the whole thing is waitlist. April 4. It had several categories open a few days ago. Also coincides with the list. However it may well be as you say- adjusting how many get on the ship. I am concerned about husband who is not in the greatest health, and even if a vaccine by then who knows when they'll be giving to old people like us. Not essential. Sadly thinking about cancelling.

 

Interesting that April 4 is waitlist and cruise immediately following April 22, is wide open. Also coincides with the list.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Petoonya