Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[need2cruisesoon]

The Spanish Flu only lasted 2 years w/o any vaccines, so I'm gonna take a hard pass on this one.

Good luck to those who have gotten the injection.

[nocl]

6 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Yes the serious risk is actually called thrombocytopenia.  A very rare disorder of low blood platelets.

 

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/vaccine-induced-prothrombotic-immune-thrombocytopenia-vipit-following-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccination/

The interesting thing is that thrombocytopenia due to immune response platelet activation and clotting is also a symptom of serious COVID-19.  Now I am clearly not saying that these people developed COVID, but instead that if they can determine the antibodies involved in the platelet activation leading to thrombocytopenia, that may provide valid information related to what happens in cases of serious disease. It has seemed that some of the damage caused by COVID has been due to the bodies own immune system reaction.

 

Would be very interesting to see the difference in antibodies in those that experience this condition due to the vaccine compared to those that do not.  As well as the different antibodies triggered by the different vaccines.

[markeb]

Regarding age groups:

 

I haven't tried to find a primary source like the CDC, but there was an interesting article a few days ago in the WAPO on changing age dynamics in hospitalized cases. It's kind of simple math, but still seems less than obvious.

 

As the highest risk, higher age groups are getting vaccinated, at least in some areas and some hospitals, you're starting to see a higher percentage of hospitalized cases in younger age groups. At least one of the hospitals interviewed hadn't had an over 65 ICU case in a couple of weeks or more. Their ICU admissions were now predominantly among 40-65 year olds. They really didn't indicate whether they were seeing an actual uptick in that age group, or if they were admitted at about the same rate as before, but with the over 65 admissions declining, they just made up a higher percentage. I suspect there's both a simple math effect (change the denominator on the susceptible population) and a behavioral component (potentially more social and other interaction) involved.

 

Even if just the math piece applies, as you get vaccine coverage in higher risk groups, you'll see the next group to start increase proportionately in hospitalizations and deaths. It still should be lower in absolute terms than the over 65 rate before the vaccines, but it could be an interesting narrative. And if the vaccines remain effective against variants, eventually you'll see that effect (again, most of it's math IMHO) down to adolescents and children, and even though actual disease will likely remain rare, without vaccinating those age groups, they'd suddenly make up the largest susceptible population, and the largest group of severe disease...

 

There are a lot of ifs there, but if the rate of vaccination continues and increases, and adult coverage is approaching the limits of voluntary uptake by mid to late summer, then having safety and effectiveness data on children and a vaccination plan for them could become important by the beginning of the next school year.

[Charles4515]

1 hour ago, need2cruisesoon said:

The Spanish Flu only lasted 2 years w/o any vaccines, so I'm gonna take a hard pass on this one.

Good luck to those who have gotten the injection.

 

Good luck to those who don't get the injection. As the rate of vaccination goes up the virus will be targeting those who have not. The virus needs people to feed on. Those who remain unvaccinated or have no immunity from infection will be in grave danger as the rate of vaccination increases.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Charles4515

[Denny01]

1 hour ago, need2cruisesoon said:

The Spanish Flu only lasted 2 years w/o any vaccines, so I'm gonna take a hard pass on this one.

Good luck to those who have gotten the injection.

As I suggested to another poster who insisted they aren’t being vaccinated,  when you sign up for a cruise, please let all those on the cruise Roll Call and those who will be around you when you get on board that you refused to be vaccinated. Your choice, but they need to choose if they wish to be exposed because of your ‘choice’.

 

And your rationale is a new one that makes absolutely no sense.....but stick with it, its as good as any other reason to not get vaccinated. And please do not, again do not respond to my post. 

 

Den

Edited March 31, 2021 by Denny01

[nocl]

52 minutes ago, markeb said:

Regarding age groups:

 

I haven't tried to find a primary source like the CDC, but there was an interesting article a few days ago in the WAPO on changing age dynamics in hospitalized cases. It's kind of simple math, but still seems less than obvious.

 

As the highest risk, higher age groups are getting vaccinated, at least in some areas and some hospitals, you're starting to see a higher percentage of hospitalized cases in younger age groups. At least one of the hospitals interviewed hadn't had an over 65 ICU case in a couple of weeks or more. Their ICU admissions were now predominantly among 40-65 year olds. They really didn't indicate whether they were seeing an actual uptick in that age group, or if they were admitted at about the same rate as before, but with the over 65 admissions declining, they just made up a higher percentage. I suspect there's both a simple math effect (change the denominator on the susceptible population) and a behavioral component (potentially more social and other interaction) involved.

 

Even if just the math piece applies, as you get vaccine coverage in higher risk groups, you'll see the next group to start increase proportionately in hospitalizations and deaths. It still should be lower in absolute terms than the over 65 rate before the vaccines, but it could be an interesting narrative. And if the vaccines remain effective against variants, eventually you'll see that effect (again, most of it's math IMHO) down to adolescents and children, and even though actual disease will likely remain rare, without vaccinating those age groups, they'd suddenly make up the largest susceptible population, and the largest group of severe disease...

 

There are a lot of ifs there, but if the rate of vaccination continues and increases, and adult coverage is approaching the limits of voluntary uptake by mid to late summer, then having safety and effectiveness data on children and a vaccination plan for them could become important by the beginning of the next school year.

Though one impact is that in areas like Michigan it appears that a number of the cases are B.1.1.7 that is supposed to be both more infectious as well as being more deadly.  So that might also be adding to cases in the younger non-vaccinated groups.

[zitsky]

2 hours ago, need2cruisesoon said:

The Spanish Flu only lasted 2 years w/o any vaccines, so I'm gonna take a hard pass on this one.

Good luck to those who have gotten the injection.

 

Maybe you should just stay home then?  Then you can't catch it.

[markeb]

43 minutes ago, nocl said:

Though one impact is that in areas like Michigan it appears that a number of the cases are B.1.1.7 that is supposed to be both more infectious as well as being more deadly.  So that might also be adding to cases in the younger non-vaccinated groups.

I don’t remember that specific article hitting on that, but yes, that would also contribute to the effect their seeing. 

[zitsky]

I was just looking at an article about entry rules for different countries.  I'm watching Spain and Portugal.  Neither is letting US citizens in.  Hope it changes by August (final payment) or November (cruise).  Whoops!

[tallnthensome]

1 hour ago, zitsky said:

 

Maybe you should just stay home then?  Then you can't catch it.

Right on .....  

[K.T.B.]

4 hours ago, need2cruisesoon said:

The Spanish Flu only lasted 2 years w/o any vaccines, so I'm gonna take a hard pass on this one.

Good luck to those who have gotten the injection.

 

Look, just because you survived it then, doesn't mean you will this time.

 

[need2cruisesoon]

2 hours ago, zitsky said:

 

Maybe you should just stay home then?  Then you can't catch it.

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

[zitsky]

2 minutes ago, need2cruisesoon said:

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

 

You mean like how vaccines cause autism? 

[Charles4515]

23 minutes ago, need2cruisesoon said:

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

So if you get COVID then god gave it to you? Or if you die from COVID it is because god intends it?

 

My religious tradition as I was taught says it is an obligation to get vaccinated. We have an obligation to care for our body and an obligation to care for those around us. 
 

 

[NMTraveller]

38 minutes ago, need2cruisesoon said:

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

I got the first jab.  Zero side effects for me.  

[Charles4515]

9 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

I got the first jab.  Zero side effects for me.  

I have had both jabs and the second was a month ago. I had a sore arm for a day after each shot. The only issue is that Bill Gates is using my body to mine bitcoin. 

[Denny01]

I got the 2nd shot and no side effects......hold on, I’m going Bald!! Oh Noooooooo, I’m going.....oops, I’ve been going bald for 25+yrs. Oh well.

 

And yes, there Is long term health consequences to getting the vaccine: we don’t get COVID, we dont give others COVID and we help to defeat COVID.......and we dont have to worry that if we told people we didnt get the vaccine, they won’t turn away and run! And hopefully, we wont have to worry about hearing those words on a cruise!!!

 

Den 

[BigAl94]

2 hours ago, need2cruisesoon said:

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

Selfish stupid attitude IMO.

[Miaminice]

5 hours ago, need2cruisesoon said:

God gave you an immune system right? If your healthy and no underlying health issues why would I need an injection that makes me sick to prevent me from getting sick. Again if you trust what's in the serum then go for it, me I am going to wait because I believe there will be long term health consequences.

 

Your choice... as ridiculous the argumentation might be.
Unfortunately your choice does not just effect you but can cause harm to many others.
Reading this I wish they´d revive Alcatraz and put i to good use 😞

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Miaminice

[tallnthensome]

5 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

Selfish stupid attitude IMO.

This is what we will have to deal with while trying to get cruising going again. I feel sorry for the cruise lines that have to deal with these people and their way of thinking ..... 

[hcat]

Article on line today says pfiser vaccine provides at least 6 months of immunity to Covid .   Wonder if this will be extended as more time passes?

 

We had our last Moderna shot in Feb....Wonder how long  it will be  considered effective before they start offering boosters?   (Assuming everyone gets first doses in the next few months)...J and J apparently  having setbacks,,,????

[wrk2cruise]

2 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

This is what we will have to deal with while trying to get cruising going again. I feel sorry for the cruise lines that have to deal with these people and their way of thinking ..... 

 

They shouldn't deal with them or pay any attention to those making noise about boycotting RCG for requiring vaccinations to sail.   At this point I'd boycott them if they didn't require vaccinations.  I wouldn't do the Silhouette sailings if I were a UK resident due to their crew policy.  I would do the Millie or Apex sailings other than the pricing including travel is way more than I want to spend for a 7 night cruise.

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, D C said:

But no shot at all is pretty effective in that same group.  I really wonder if this is the best use of vaccines.

Dave,

I understand your thought here. First, let me say that if I had kids that were still school age, I would personally get them vaccinated as soon as a COVID vaccine was available to them which means also proven safety (more below).   I think school districts will add it to the required vaccine list anyway.  It might not be the best use of vaccines in short supply right now (your point) but by the time they are approved in kids there will be plenty of doses to go around.

 

But if I am a parent of younger children, it is a different risk vs. reward equation and not as clear cut as some make it out to be here.  Yes children are carriers but predominantly not sick at all,  so parents will choose to vaccinate based on the noble goals of protecting other adults and stopping the pandemic.  But by this stage they know that, for the most part,  Grandma and Grandpa (and maybe themselves) had the vaccine and are protected.  As are the teachers of their kids.

 

So some parents look at this equation a bit differently.  Not selfishly.  But cautiously.  There is no long term safety data for these vaccines.  That is OK for the population ages vulnerable to severe COVID.  But for their kids who will likely not get anything but a mild cold?  I understand that just carrying COVID virus in these kids might also be a long term safety thing to consider too.  A very very difficult decision for all parents.

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, hcat said:

Article on line today says pfiser vaccine provides at least 6 months of immunity to Covid .   Wonder if this will be extended as more time passes?

 

We had our last Moderna shot in Feb....Wonder how long  it will be  considered effective before they start offering boosters?   (Assuming everyone gets first doses in the next few months)...J and J apparently  having setbacks,,,????

hcat- I see these speculations about lasting vaccine immunity.  They are everywhere and it seems that the answer is "just guess a number" and then publish it.  Nobody knows yet.  And there is some different aspects of the immune system to consider.  Antibodies circulating after vaccination (or COVID infection) will definitely wane over time as there is no longer antigen being expressed in your body to keep the antibodies highly elevated.  But you have developed a memory response - your immune system remembers the antigen and goes into a rapid response if it sees it again.  Just like what happens when you get your second booster dose of vaccine.  And this response includes various T Cells which help the antibody response and also seek out and destroy viral infected cells.  So the memory response will very likely be there to keep you from getting seriously ill.  And it will be boosted further if you get a vaccine next year against a variant if that is necessary.

[TeeRick]

Here is a summary from the CDC of virus variants tracked in different parts of the US by state.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html

 

And more info on COVID variants and the data on all of the current vaccines.  Nice chart.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/948335?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=370300SV&impID=3281482&faf=1

Edited April 1, 2021 by TeeRick