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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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51 minutes ago, Pinboy said:

Your posts are excellent !! 

Off topic question :

How do so many people know the " real " name of people on CC ?

I understood CC keeps it confidential. 

 

Yes just look at the end of the post- sometimes in small print.  No guessing for me.  Rick

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2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes just look at the end of the post- sometimes in small print.  No guessing for me.  Rick

LOL--- Now you know---- Pinboy isn't the " sharpest knife in the drawer " .

Hey, I just noticed---- we are up to 71 pages on this topic , going for the record from " Who's On Board " ?

Oh Boy, I remember that one !!!

When is the NHL starting up  ?? 

 

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Well, it's definitely been quite the ride "through the tunnel" and, of course, the pandemic is nowhere from being over yet, but it's definitely comforting to see the first set of trucks heading out to deliver the initial batch of vaccines!! 

 

US coronavirus: Vaccine ships out from Pfizer plant for all 50 states - CNN

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3 hours ago, D C said:

~90% of deaths could be prevented if everyone over 65 was vaccinated.  

In my mind, that ends the pandemic (epidemic really on a national scale), although there admittedly doesn't seem to be established criteria for when epidemic transitions to endemic.  

 

Vaccinating the 65+ first also has an immediate effect on lowering hospital admissions.   

I disagree, the medical community, first responders, and at risk teachers should get it first, for obvious reasons. We are well over 65, but are in pretty good health.

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4 hours ago, D C said:

~90% of deaths could be prevented if everyone over 65 was vaccinated.  

In my mind, that ends the pandemic (epidemic really on a national scale), although there admittedly doesn't seem to be established criteria for when epidemic transitions to endemic.  

 

Vaccinating the 65+ first also has an immediate effect on lowering hospital admissions.   

We are seeing lots of admissions under age 65 and as Tee says, a very large % of the 65+ would have to get the vaccine to actually bring down admissions, deaths would be impacted, but the strain on hospitals not as much.

 I looked at your link to the Michigan plan, it is very similar to what is going to happen in Alabama, except I think the individual hospitals are being given a little more leeway in deciding when to open up vaccination to other depts.

If hospital admissions stay up, you have to think about the person who cleans the floors, and cooks the meals and maintains the plumbing and electrical, provides security, works in the lab and rads and pharmacy. All those people need to come to work to keep the engine running. Those “specialized individuals” that the plan talks about are often much harder to replace than the frontline doctors and nurses and all it takes is one person bringing Covid into the break room to produce a crisis.

Someone is going to have to wait, and some of the smartest people in healthcare have weighed in on these decisions- other than some geography based differences, most every plan that I’ve seen is basically the same - I think they know what they are talking about

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10 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

@Porky55, I'm not sure what type of comment you are looking for. Other than confirming that Walgreens is ready to deliver COVID-19 vaccines, the article says very little. 

Exactly that one, thanks.
The article didn’t actually say which major pharmacy. Though I guess the final sentence quoting Walgreens President should have been a clue.

We will be waiting here in Aus to get our vaccine around March - our Govt wants to see how many UK & US citizens keel over first 😉😆 (just kidding)

 

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In NC the state HHS secretary said there are ~88k doses of coming this week and they don't know exactly what the second week qty would be.  The first week I believe is going to 11 hospitals with ultra cold storage capability.  The next round would go to 42 additional hospitals via the dry ice packaging.  It was interesting she said the nursing homes and long term care settings were being coordinated by the federal government (not her office) and would be administered by CVS and Walgreens.  If I remember correctly she said that would be the Moderna vaccine.

 

Full press conference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEknTtlv7PM

 

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18 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Maybe they've updated the article, as the version that I read mentions Walgreens by name. Glad I could help. 

In the US, both Walgreens and CVS have major distribution deals for the vaccines.  In my state (PA) the initial doses going to nursing homes will be transported to them by CVS and administered to residents directly on site by trained CVS staff.  Starting this week.

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18 hours ago, cangelmd said:

We are seeing lots of admissions under age 65 and as Tee says, a very large % of the 65+ would have to get the vaccine to actually bring down admissions, deaths would be impacted, but the strain on hospitals not as much.

 I looked at your link to the Michigan plan, it is very similar to what is going to happen in Alabama, except I think the individual hospitals are being given a little more leeway in deciding when to open up vaccination to other depts.

If hospital admissions stay up, you have to think about the person who cleans the floors, and cooks the meals and maintains the plumbing and electrical, provides security, works in the lab and rads and pharmacy. All those people need to come to work to keep the engine running. Those “specialized individuals” that the plan talks about are often much harder to replace than the frontline doctors and nurses and all it takes is one person bringing Covid into the break room to produce a crisis.

Someone is going to have to wait, and some of the smartest people in healthcare have weighed in on these decisions- other than some geography based differences, most every plan that I’ve seen is basically the same - I think they know what they are talking about

This is such a great point.  All of the folks in hospitals that are hugely responsible for keeping everything working smoothly behind the scenes are very important and also at risk.  Hopefully they all will get vaccinated early on.

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1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

In the US, both Walgreens and CVS have major distribution deals for the vaccines.  In my state (PA) the initial doses going to nursing homes will be transported to them by CVS and administered to residents directly on site by trained CVS staff.  Starting this week.

This is the case with NC as well.  From what I understand the allocation is coming straight from the federal government and isn't included in the numbers of allocated doses the states are reporting

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23 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Dave I agree with you but it is not possible with initial doses anyway to vaccinate everybody over 65 with the initial doses and some will be reluctant for whatever reason to get the vaccine too.

Rick, they are promising to vaccinate 100 million people by March.  Will this take care of most people 65 plus?

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1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

This is such a great point.  All of the folks in hospitals that are hugely responsible for keeping everything working smoothly behind the scenes are very important and also at risk.  Hopefully they all will get vaccinated early on.

In NC it was explicitly stated that 1st priority was healthcare with direct contact with covid in hospitals.  ER, Covid ward, Covid ICU and included the people responsible for cleaning the rooms.

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5 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Rick, they are promising to vaccinate 100 million people by March.  Will this take care of most people 65 plus?

According to the US statistics, about 16.5% of the US population of 330 million is 65 and older so about 55 million people.  If every one of them gets a vaccine requiring two doses then you would need slightly more (110 million doses).  Now of course the vaccine will not be administered to everybody given people's overall fears, reluctance, health exclusions, whatever.  So the 100 million doses should be plenty for this population.  But then the number of front line health care workers needs to be covered too.  So I think the 65+ crowd will likely be covered by middle of 2021 if we get at least three vaccines going by March.

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27 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

This is such a great point.  All of the folks in hospitals that are hugely responsible for keeping everything working smoothly behind the scenes are very important and also at risk.  Hopefully they all will get vaccinated early on.

Same here in Puerto Rico, I really hope my husband gets the vaccine soon.  I'm a dentist and although we are high risk, the truth is that our strict protocols are working and I can wait. 

Rick,  do you have more information about the allergies reported in the UK? Do you have any idea about the component of the vaccine that might trigger these allergic reactions?  I will appreciate any information  you can share with us.  

 

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13 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

According to the US statistics, about 16.5% of the US population of 330 million is 65 and older so about 55 million people.  If every one of them gets a vaccine requiring two doses then you would need slightly more (110 million doses).  Now of course the vaccine will not be administered to everybody given people's overall fears, reluctance, health exclusions, whatever.  So the 100 million doses should be plenty for this population.  But then the number of front line health care workers needs to be covered too.  So I think the 65+ crowd will likely be covered by middle of 2021 if we get at least three vaccines going by March.

Thank you.

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6 minutes ago, drarill said:

Same here in Puerto Rico, I really hope my husband gets the vaccine soon.  I'm a dentist and although we are high risk, the truth is that our strict protocols are working and I can wait. 

Rick,  do you have more information about the allergies reported in the UK? Do you have any idea about the component of the vaccine that might trigger these allergic reactions?  I will appreciate any information  you can share with us.  

 

I do not know specifics and maybe nobody does at this point.  So anybody should feel free to move to the next post and not pay any attention to my answer below.

 

We can maybe assume they are concerned about anaphylaxis since they talk about those people carrying epipens should avoid the vaccine for now. 

 

Some ideas (from me) for what it's worth. I do not have anything but speculation to offer.

 

The Pfizer vaccine like any other vaccine could stimulate a heightened but non-specific immune response leading to anaphylaxis in those prone to it.

 

1)The Pfizer vaccine formulation is mRNA with a lipid coating.

It is hard to imagine that mRNA per se would be the allergen since every cell in our bodies produce it continuously.  But a couple of things to consider.  The mRNA in the vaccine was made with slightly different chemical base modifications to enhance its stability once injected.  Also mRNA can fold itself into different unique structures depending on its sequence.  Either might make it look like a foreign antigen in some of the highly susceptible people.

 

2)The lipid +mRNA complex could be viewed as a foreign antigen.  Also the lipid coating itself.

 

3)Other components of the vaccine formulation mixture - but not sure what else is in it.  Vaccine formulation scientists have great knowledge from other vaccines about safe and inert components to use so this is probably not the source of the reactions.  Unless something new and untried was required for the mRNA-lipid complex.

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On 12/13/2020 at 8:59 AM, D C said:

~90% of deaths could be prevented if everyone over 65 was vaccinated.  

In my mind, that ends the pandemic (epidemic really on a national scale), although there admittedly doesn't seem to be established criteria for when epidemic transitions to endemic.  

 

Vaccinating the 65+ first also has an immediate effect on lowering hospital admissions.   

No, it does not end the pandemic.  What it would do is significantly lower the deaths.  A pandemic is defined by the number of people getting sick over a broad area, not the number of people dying.

 

From Merriam Webster:

Definition of pandemic (Entry 2 of 2)

1: an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area (such as multiple countries or continents) and typically affects a significant proportion of the population : a pandemic outbreak of a disease

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