More Bad News for the cruise lines.

[Hlitner]

We know that many saw the recent restart of cruising in Europe as a good thing for the industry.  But we wonder if it has backfired in an awful way.  Lets consider that 3 European cruise lines recently started some relatively short cruises.  All 3 of the cruise lines (TUI, Hurtigruten, and Aida) have all reported positive cases of COVID.  In the case of Hurtigruten this could quickly become a big mess since 33 crew members have now tested positive and they are still awaiting the results from testing of nearly 200 passengers.  Meanwhile some folks have been quarantined.  In the case of TUI, the line had 3 crew test positive on the Mein Schiff 1 and they cancelled its first restart cruise.  But the line, at first, did not even acknowledge the COVID cases and simply said they could not fill all their crew positions in time for the cruise.   And another German cruise line (Aida) recently reported that 10 of their crew members had tested positive.  We do not know all the facts about Aida other then these crew members tested positive in Germany and may well have returned to Germany to help staff their initial cruises.  

 

So where does that leave the industry?  The good news is that Mein Schiff 2 apparently was able to successfully complete its initial restart cruise.  But these positive tests on crew who are flying-in to staff ships is very troubling.  Does all this mean that it is just not possible to resume cruising at this time?  Time will tell.

 

Hank

[Sea Hag]

Too bad on this. I'm sure we were all hoping it would go well.

[clo]

7 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Does all this mean that it is just not possible to resume cruising at this time? 

Yes, that's exactly what it means. And AFAIK the crews on Hurtigruten are all Norwegian. And Norway shut down to 'outsiders' early on. I continue to believe no safe sailing until 2022.

[Charles4515]

Yes, that's exactly what it means. And AFAIK the crews on Hurtigruten are all Norwegian. And Norway shut down to 'outsiders' early on. I continue to believe no safe sailing until 2022.

 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread I read most of the crew was Filipino. I don’t think they were flown in. The ship normally did Antarctica cruises. Also one of the reports from Norway was that a passenger may have boarded who was infected. They were pre testing crew but not passengers.

 

 

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[K32682]

36 Hurtigruten crew members now positive and two cruises possibly affected.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/08/01/hurtigruten-cruise-line-33-crew-infected-covid-19-norway/5562151002/

 

[cbr663]

This leaves the industry in a terrible predicament. 

 

When reading this post, I immediately thought of points made by the CDC in its July 16th Extension of the No-Sail Order where it stated, "that cruise ship travel exacerbates the global spread of COVID-19" and that, "...persons on board or seeking to board cruise ships may likely be or would likely become infected with or exposed to COVID-19 by virtue of being on board at a time when cases of COVID-19 are being reported in increasingly significant numbers globally."

 

[clo]

3 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

 

As I mentioned in the other thread I read most of the crew was Filipino. I don’t think they were flown in. The ship normally did Antarctica cruises. Also one of the reports from Norway was that a passenger may have boarded who was infected. They were pre testing crew but not passengers. 

 

 

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Thanks. I made an assumption. I also read that for non-Europeans there was a 14 day quarantine before boarding and two negative tests. If they weren't flown in, how did they get there? What a mess. And we love Hurtigruten )

 

[chipmaster]

The biology simply not reasonable now.

 

You can take a crew and sequester it for a couple weeks and test everyone and certify on the ship they are clean ( ala NBA bubble etc. )

 

Then you welcome a few hundred to a few thousand customers from all over.  Even a 100% efficacy test won't insure a COVID19 free cruise.    Why is very simple...

1) Current positive testing is showing between 5-20% positive, thus we have it in the population at large rate

2) Those boarding the ship someone will most certainly have interacted somewhere that might have it and get it.

3) Testing of those that might have just got it won't detect it yet..

 

Then you cruise and rub shoulders with 1000 or more others, and if anyone has just gotten it,  viola you got an outbreak.   

 

Places like NZ/Australia and others that really have suppressed it possible low probability, but look what happened with this one.  Not a crazy high country .. still you got infections..

 

Cruising is finished for 2020 and likely 2021 till vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and huge portions of the population get it.

 

Or maybe it'll be a miracle and just disappear?

 

Edited August 1, 2020 by chipmaster

[clo]

2 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

The biology simply not reasonable now.

 

You can take a crew and sequester it for a couple weeks and test everyone and certify on the ship they are clean ( ala NBA bubble etc. )

 

Then you welcome a few hundred to a few thousand customers from all over.  Even a 100% efficacy test won't insure a COVID19 free cruise.    Why is very simple...

1) Current positive testing is showing between 5-20% positive, thus we have it in the population at large rate

2) Those boarding the ship someone will most certainly have interacted somewhere that might have it and get it.

3) Testing of those that might have just got it won't detect it yet..

 

Then you cruise and rub shoulders with 1000 or more others, and if anyone has just gotten it,  viola you got an outbreak.   

 

Places like NZ/Australia and others that really have suppressed it possible low probability, but look what happened with this one.  Not a crazy high country .. still you got infections..

 

Cruising is finished for 2020 and likely 2021 till vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and huge portions of the population get it.

 

Or maybe it'll be a miracle and just disappear?

 

I vote for your next to last sentence. Unfortunately.

[Ashland]

49 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

The biology simply not reasonable now.

 

You can take a crew and sequester it for a couple weeks and test everyone and certify on the ship they are clean ( ala NBA bubble etc. )

 

Then you welcome a few hundred to a few thousand customers from all over.  Even a 100% efficacy test won't insure a COVID19 free cruise.    Why is very simple...

1) Current positive testing is showing between 5-20% positive, thus we have it in the population at large rate

2) Those boarding the ship someone will most certainly have interacted somewhere that might have it and get it.

3) Testing of those that might have just got it won't detect it yet..

 

Then you cruise and rub shoulders with 1000 or more others, and if anyone has just gotten it,  viola you got an outbreak.   

 

Places like NZ/Australia and others that really have suppressed it possible low probability, but look what happened with this one.  Not a crazy high country .. still you got infections..

 

Cruising is finished for 2020 and likely 2021 till vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and huge portions of the population get it.

 

Or maybe it'll be a miracle and just disappear?

 

I agree completely with 2020...but am still hoping for some of 2021.

[Charles4515]

Thanks. I made an assumption. I also read that for non-Europeans there was a 14 day quarantine before boarding and two negative tests. If they weren't flown in, how did they get there? What a mess. And we love Hurtigruten )   

 

 The article translation isn’t all that great but for sure it says most were from the Philippines. Not sure if they were flown in for the restart or left over from the Arctic sailings. Supposedly they did have two tests.

 

 

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[ontheweb]

7 hours ago, Sea Hag said:

Too bad on this. I'm sure we were all hoping it would go well.

I wish that were true, but it seems that there are many on these boards that just love to say "I told you so" every time something goes wrong.

[AdoraBelle]

10 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

I wish that were true, but it seems that there are many on these boards that just love to say "I told you so" every time something goes wrong.

I don’t see anything like that in this thread.

[Ashland]

3 hours ago, AdoraBelle said:

I don’t see anything like that in this thread.

I think the key word here was "board".

[FredT]

15 hours ago, chipmaster said:

Cruising is finished for 2020 and likely 2021 till vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and huge portions of the population get it.

OR.....   A vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and the cruise lines simply mandate that EVERYONE boarding has had the vaccine.      No one is saying that you HAVE to get a vaccine, but the cruise lines "should" have the authority to say "no vaccine, no cruise". 

 

 Law suits aside, thats where I think this is going.  (In the near future) 

[Spif Barwunkel]

This is an unfortunate happenstance, but certainly not a surprising one. Covid19 has now been added to the glossary of viral variants, obtrusively invading our space and polluting our environment.  Eventually, it will come under control - though not eradicated - with a vaccine to help keep it at bay. No different than living with the many other infectious diseases and contaminants that we are exposed to in our lifetimes, some more minacious than others.

 

When you think about it, it is impossible to embark on a “clean” cruise (ship). Someone from somewhere is always going to bring contagion onboard, in varying degrees of contamination and severity. Our individual immune systems, hygiene practices and overall health will determine how we fare. Inevitably, some will disembark from a voyage hosting an unwanted guest, courtesy of a fellow passenger or crew member. Certain travelers will never know they had company. Others will eventually feel the discomforts of its presence.  Always has been, always will be.

 

Such is the case with Covid19. As it evolves, so will scientific protection/prevention, evolve.  When a proven vaccine is developed and any other form of successful treatment, we will have the opportunity to avail ourselves of those benefits, just as we do today. As usual, some will and some will not.    

 

 

Edited August 2, 2020 by Spif Barwunkel

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, FredT said:

OR.....   A vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and the cruise lines simply mandate that EVERYONE boarding has had the vaccine.      No one is saying that you HAVE to get a vaccine, but the cruise lines "should" have the authority to say "no vaccine, no cruise". 

 

 Law suits aside, thats where I think this is going.  (In the near future) 

We have long advocated for mandatory flu shot requirements for cruisers and if/when there is a safe/effective COVID vaccine that should certainly be added to our list.  There is a misnomer among many in the anti-vaccine crowd that insist it is their right to refuse vaccines.  While that may be true, that refusal can (and should) come with consequences.  If you do not want to get a vaccination then you will just have to live with the restrictions  resulting from your own decision.  That may well be the inability to ever cruise and might even become a requirement for any international travel.  This is not a new concept as various vaccinations have previously been required for travel to specific countries.

 

Hank

[navybankerteacher]

14 hours ago, ontheweb said:

I wish that were true, but it seems that there are many on these boards that just love to say "I told you so" every time something goes wrong.

I don’t think anyone loves to say that - they are simply suggesting that over-optimism does no-one any good ——- and may, in fact, make “return to normal” take a lot longer:

witness the irresponsible populations in those many states where infections are now surging.

[navybankerteacher]

20 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

We have long advocated for mandatory flu shot requirements for cruisers and if/when there is a safe/effective COVID vaccine that should certainly be added to our list.  There is a misnomer among many in the anti-vaccine crowd that insist it is their right to refuse vaccines.  While that may be true, that refusal can (and should) come with consequences.  If you do not want to get a vaccination then you will just have to live with the restrictions  resulting from your own decision.  That may well be the inability to ever cruise and might even become a requirement for any international travel.  This is not a new concept as various vaccinations have previously been required for travel to specific countries.

 

Hank

Correct - no one need be forced to get a vaccine - they just have to be satisfied with the cost of not getting one.  If and when a COVID vaccine is developed, that cost might need to be increased - enforced quarantine (as used to be practiced vs. measles, etc.) could be an option.

 

But it is probably simpler than that - no vaccine=no cruising, no flying, etc.  just the way no passport=no international travel now.

[SelectSys]

19 hours ago, K32682 said:

36 Hurtigruten crew members now positive and two cruises possibly affected.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/08/01/hurtigruten-cruise-line-33-crew-infected-covid-19-norway/5562151002/

 

 Thanks for posting the link.  Interesting to see that the Filipinos were the most infected.  Probably because their living quarters were the tightest opening up for more spread.

 

17 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

Places like NZ/Australia and others that really have suppressed it possible low probability, but look what happened with this one.  Not a crazy high country .. still you got infections..

 

 

Cruising is finished for 2020 and likely 2021 till vaccine with proven efficacy is rolled out and huge portions of the population get it.

 

 

We are definitely in containment until a really good treatment or vaccine is available.  The news from Australia suggests that even the smallest embers of disease can flare again with great consequences:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/02/australia/victoria-coronavirus-state-of-disaster-intl/index.html

 

56 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

... If you do not want to get a vaccination then you will just have to live with the restrictions  resulting from your own decision.  That may well be the inability to ever cruise and might even become a requirement for any international travel.  This is not a new concept as various vaccinations have previously been required for travel to specific countries.

 

The individual being responsible for the consequences of their own poor decision making is not a popular concept these days,

[FredT]

39 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

The individual being responsible for the consequences of their own poor decision making is not a popular concept these days,

ESPECIALLY on the "left coast"!  😁    

 

(And before anyone takes offense, joke....  this was meant as a JOKE!!!!!!!)

[Charles4515]

More news. Covid case on Paul Gauguin.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23323-paul-gauguin-has-a-covid-19-case.html


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[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

We have long advocated for mandatory flu shot requirements for cruisers and if/when there is a safe/effective COVID vaccine that should certainly be added to our list.  There is a misnomer among many in the anti-vaccine crowd that insist it is their right to refuse vaccines.  While that may be true, that refusal can (and should) come with consequences.  If you do not want to get a vaccination then you will just have to live with the restrictions  resulting from your own decision.  That may well be the inability to ever cruise and might even become a requirement for any international travel.  This is not a new concept as various vaccinations have previously been required for travel to specific countries.

 

Hank

 

Delta is setting the example of what a private business can and will do.   Don't wear mask, you can't fly and will be put on their naughty no more fly list.    Wear a mask with a valve ( not acceptable ), not necessarily agree with that one, but their consistency and willingness to enforce including return to airport to kick rule breaks off earns my respect.

 

A cruise line that is equally consistent in enforcement would be one that would earn my respect and business.     I could see this as must for all passengers

 

Vaccine or Antibody positive test upon embarkation, no exceptions, let them throw their temper tantrums and be shamed on social media, LOL

 

Let me know when I can sign up for their first cruise!

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

I don’t think anyone loves to say that - they are simply suggesting that over-optimism does no-one any good ——- and may, in fact, make “return to normal” take a lot longer:

witness the irresponsible populations in those many states where infections are now surging.

It is one thing to caution one not too be over optimistic, but it is another to declare everything that might be a cure is impossible.

 

Here are some of the things I have "learned" from reading these boards.

 

There has never been a successful vaccine. (I guess that is why we still live in fear of polio, small pox, measles, etc.)

 

All of the reported successful stage 2 trials only mean the company's stock will go up with insiders making millions.

 

There will be tremendous political pressure to approve a vaccine without knowing what side effects might show up, so one would be wise not to get the shot.

 

Even 50% would be considered a successful vaccine, so most especially considering all who will refuse to take it will not be safe.(Again I wonder why there is no small pox or polio haunting us. Or measles which came back in parts of my state until the Governor and the legislature squashed the so called religious exemption for measles shots.)

 

Vaccines will do no good because the anti-bodies do not remain with this virus.

 

If I think about it longer, I'm sure I can come up with more that I have seen posted on these boards.

Edited August 2, 2020 by ontheweb
corrected one typo

[sfaaa]

I can help with one more. All cruise lines are about to go bankrupt and your FCCs will all become worthless on Dec 31, 2021.