Is it time to buy Carnival stock?

[firefly333]

Buy when everyone hates it. Its trading like it's being dumped. Today at least finding some support at 21.50. Close to where I'd dip in but cautiously.

 

Nclh down even more than ccl, the market hates the law suit. So many things to dislike here lol. Time maybe to nibble.

[jfunk138]

Just now, cruisingguy007 said:

 

You can downplay it all you want and pretend the vaccines don't help by pointing out breakthrough cases. The data proves otherwise with hospitalizations and deaths being nearly all unvaccinated and needless in nature. Ignoring covid won't change the outcomes, restrictions, and rules that are happening. Vaccine defiance may even seem fun and liberating to many. The problem is, simply ignoring it and moving on, while numbers climb, won't be a rational solution to much of the world and/or much of even our country.

 

Some states will truck on defiantly no matter what, just as some countries have, and let the chips fall where they may. Many will cheer and celebrate it actually. Letting it rip will never be mainstream though. Truth be told though, once vaccines are available for the younger kids and boosters for those who want, I'm all for it. I say let it rip, remove all restrictions, mandates and give people the freedom they truly want. I've about had my fill of he horses that don't want to drink. That time is not now though.      

I think you are going quite a bit off-topic on the Carnival stock price.  We have plenty of evidence from Europe that cruiselines can go unvaccinated without issue and from the business point of view this is a better case.  Excluding 50% of potential US customers is not good for the stock.  

 

We are ignoring the vaccine issue on every other mode of transportation, on every other domestic land travel destination.  Simply, having this restriction on cruises is not good business.  There's alot of competition for this huge supply of dollars out there:  telling 50% of people with stimulus dollars, child tax credit dollars, and supplemental unemployment dollars burning a whole in their pockets:  "You'll just have to wait" is a bad thing for business.  People won't wait.  They've been trapped in their houses for 18 months.  They are going to spend on the travel destinations that will take them.

 

Maybe it's a coincidence that the stock peaked within a trading day of Christine Duffy's comments about mandatory vax, but markets are very attuned to this kind of thing.  I think the market sees the same problem I do.

[cruisingguy007]

8 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

I think you are going quite a bit off-topic on the Carnival stock price.  We have plenty of evidence from Europe that cruiselines can go unvaccinated without issue and from the business point of view this is a better case.  Excluding 50% of potential US customers is not good for the stock.  

 

We are ignoring the vaccine issue on every other mode of transportation, on every other domestic land travel destination.  Simply, having this restriction on cruises is not good business.  There's alot of competition for this huge supply of dollars out there:  telling 50% of people with stimulus dollars, child tax credit dollars, and supplemental unemployment dollars burning a whole in their pockets:  "You'll just have to wait" is a bad thing for business.  People won't wait.  They've been trapped in their houses for 18 months.  They are going to spend on the travel destinations that will take them.

 

Maybe it's a coincidence that the stock peaked within a trading day of Christine Duffy's comments about mandatory vax, but markets are very attuned to this kind of thing.  I think the market sees the same problem I do.

 

Sounds like my comment was right on the money. Opening up cruising to unvaccinated would be a huge mistake for the industry IMO and would probably bankrupt it at this point. Chasing money off a cliff isn't a smart business decision. It's a Wiley Coyote move. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I respect your position, I just disagree with it entirely. Not entirely actually, I do agree with you in principle, just not practicality. I do appreciate you taking the time to explain your reasoning though.  

[HaveWeMetYet]

The rapid rise of the Delta variant is driving all travel stocks lower. The UK is nearing 50000 cases per day and deaths are now starting to ramp up. 

The Israeli Health Ministry reporting 40 per cent of recent new cases are among the not vaccinated.

 

[jfunk138]

1 minute ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Sounds like my comment was right on the money. Opening up cruising to unvaccinated would be a huge mistake for the industry IMO and would probably bankrupt it at this point. Chasing money off a cliff isn't a smart business decision. It's a Wiley Coyote move. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one. I respect your position, I just disagree with it entirely. Not entirely actually, I do agree with you in principle, just not practicality. I do appreciate you taking the time to explain your reasoning though.  

We've heard many opinions over the past 14 or so months that "opening up" will lead to disaster and be a huge mistake for whoever was opening.  Eventually one of these opinions may be right, including your opinion about the cruise industry.

 

It's somewhat unfortunate at this time that we still don't have "The Florida of Cruising" that just pushes wide open without restrictions, so that we can evaluate later which approach was better.

 

I agree that the discussion has been interesting and your thoughtful comments are very much appreciated.

[cruisingguy007]

17 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

We've heard many opinions over the past 14 or so months that "opening up" will lead to disaster and be a huge mistake for whoever was opening.  Eventually one of these opinions may be right, including your opinion about the cruise industry.

 

It's somewhat unfortunate at this time that we still don't have "The Florida of Cruising" that just pushes wide open without restrictions, so that we can evaluate later which approach was better.

 

I agree that the discussion has been interesting and your thoughtful comments are very much appreciated.

 

LOL, Wiley Coyote cruise lines? It would be interesting to be sure and I'd make a bundle heavily shorting it but these operations are behemoth operations with a lot of moving parts and a lot of money at stake. Treating it as a simple position on red/black at the roulette wheel and hoping for the best would take intestinal fortitude the likes most will never see. Plus a little bit of crazy for good measure...lol. It would very interesting/entertaining though, I'll give you that. 😉   

Edited July 15, 2021 by cruisingguy007

[jfunk138]

7 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

LOL, Wiley Coyote cruise lines? It would be interesting to be sure and I'd make a bundle heavily shorting it but these operations are behemoth operations with a lot of moving parts and a lot of money at stake. Treating it as a simple position on red/black at the roulette wheel and hoping for the best would take intestinal fortitude the likes most will never see. Plus a little bit of crazy for good measure...lol. It would very interesting/entertaining though, I'll give you that. 😉   

"intestinal fortitude" - it would take the Ron DeSantis of cruising, no doubt.  Opening up the 3rd largest state in the country, with so many eyes focused on it and pointing fingers, was quite the behemoth operation itself.

 

But ol' Ron took that gamble and now is polling #2 behind you know who for a major party nomination for President.

[asalligo]

Motley Fool: On Monday, The Miami Herald reported that in an effort to keep its ships free of the novel coronavirus -- but also comply with a Florida law forbidding cruise companies from requiring that passengers show proof of vaccination against it -- Carnival has decided to demand that vacationers purchase "special COVID-19 travel insurance" if they want to board its ships.  

In theory, Carnival, like its rival Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), wants all passengers to be vaccinated because, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, a cruise line that requires 95% of its passengers to be vaccinated can get a "conditional sailing certificate" without needing to run a "simulated sailing" beforehand. Florida, however, has stepped in to forbid vaccination requirements -- and will fine any operator that requires them.  

To achieve its goal without running afoul of the law, Carnival will permit passengers who don't show proof of vaccination to instead purchase travel insurance covering at least $10,000 of medical expenses and $30,000 of emergency medical evacuation expenses and to pay a $150 fee for a COVID-19 test to prove they are not currently infected.

 

Now what

So why is that bad news for Carnival stock (and for Royal Caribbean, too, which has instituted a similar policy)? Simply because loading on fees and a requirement to purchase travel insurance makes the company's services more expensive, potentially deterring customers from sailing, and without adding anything to the revenue that Carnival will collect from the added expense.

[asalligo]

Frankly the stock is a great buy right now if Carnival can get back to its former glory, but how long will that be? 

 

[asalligo]

Frankly the stock is a great buy right now if Carnival can get back to its former glory, but how long will that be? 

 

[skrufy]

3 hours ago, canes20 said:

100 shares is what you need.

$100 OBC

I use TD Ameritrade

We use TD Ameritrade. Have 200 shares bought @ $16.32.

Depending on the days sailed its $50.00, $100.00 or $250.00 per cabin.

 

[cruisingguy007]

3 minutes ago, asalligo said:

 

 

Now what

So why is that bad news for Carnival stock (and for Royal Caribbean, too, which has instituted a similar policy)? Simply because loading on fees and a requirement to purchase travel insurance makes the company's services more expensive, potentially deterring customers from sailing, and without adding anything to the revenue that Carnival will collect from the added expense.

 

That's kind of the point, to deter undesirable customers. They wouldn't need to play these games but for the ridiculous FL overreach infringement on their operational independence. 

 

There are three choices right now. 1.) Punish them for being safe 2.) Reward them for being safe and hang-tight long-term because you have confidence in the line and industry as a whole 3.) Sit on the sidelines and wait. 

[cruisingguy007]

7 minutes ago, asalligo said:

Frankly the stock is a great buy right now if Carnival can get back to its former glory, but how long will that be? 

 

 

Some are asking when? Some are even skeptical "if". If "when" is your consideration and you have confidence in the line (product) and that the industry as a whole will be profitable/viable then scoop up as much as you can. If it stays viable, you can't lose.  

[klfhngr]

I got in at 8 and 13

 

[asalligo]

3 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

That's kind of the point, to deter undesirable customers. They wouldn't need to play these games but for the ridiculous FL overreach infringement on their operational independence. 

 

There are three choices right now. 1.) Punish them for being safe 2.) Reward them for being safe and hang-tight long-term because you have confidence in the line and industry as a whole 3.) Sit on the sidelines and wait. 

That is the bet isn't it. They are looking at it strictly from a stock standpoint and they are right. Unless Carnival gets its full customer base back in vaccinated and unvaccinated cruisers and the ability to maximize profit from all angles on them, then the stock will suffer for a long time and maybe even result in further company downsizing. Safe or not, a large portion of their client base is being restricted from sailing right now and another portion scared to sail. Carnival was already a company that often set sail not making a profit. Their profit was made after the cabins were booked.  

[asalligo]

4 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

Some are asking when? Some are even skeptical "if". If "when" is your consideration and you have confidence in the line (product) and that the industry as a whole will be profitable/viable then scoop up as much as you can. If it stays viable, you can't lose.  

I am buying and betting that a year from now Carnival is sailing restriction free. If I am wrong, my stock will still be in the $20 range. 

[firefly333]

2 minutes ago, asalligo said:

I am buying and betting that a year from now Carnival is sailing restriction free. If I am wrong, my stock will still be in the $20 range. 

The 21.50 support I called earlier seems like a good entry, .. we agree. But not that carnival can sail restriction free next year. I give it about 20 to 30% chance of that, but at this price little to lose.

[asalligo]

7 minutes ago, asalligo said:

That is the bet isn't it. They are looking at it strictly from a stock standpoint and they are right. Unless Carnival gets its full customer base back in vaccinated and unvaccinated cruisers and the ability to maximize profit from all angles on them, then the stock will suffer for a long time and maybe even result in further company downsizing. Safe or not, a large portion of their client base is being restricted from sailing right now and another portion scared to sail. Carnival was already a company that often set sail not making a profit. Their profit was made after the cabins were booked.  

I am one of these people though. I am not returning to Carnival until they are cruising what I call normal. No mask, no vaccine, no tests, and no restrictions on excursions. If this is still in place when my final payment comes due, I will reschedule and book a land vacation. If enough people are thinking this way and this condition lasts awhile, then the stock will stay low for a long time.  

[Sagittarius traveler]

I bought some shares during covid .

[Saint Greg]

On 7/15/2021 at 10:25 AM, Saint Greg said:

If I didn't already have it I would buy now. If it goes down to 20 I'll buy more. 

 

Looks like we may get there on Monday.

[wiskt]

On 7/15/2021 at 11:34 AM, canes20 said:

100 shares is what you need.

$100 OBC

I use TD Ameritrade

 

 

I already have over 100 shares.   Picked up a bunch more when they really sank last year planning to hold them for a while when it eventually moves back up to "normal levels"   It may take a year or two, but will eventually get there an make me more $.     

 

i also got MORE just in case CCL decides to up the 100 share total for OBC as well. 

[IntrepidFromDC]

I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but I will be dollar-cost averaging right around here.  That way if it continues to go down you can pick up more.

[firefly333]

2 hours ago, Saint Greg said:

 

Looks like we may get there on Monday.

Lol we are certainly getting close to a 20.01 GTC buy.

 

Friday it fought before dropping below 21.00 but was like a big hand is pushing the price down.

[Tom-n-Cheryl]

I'll have to pick up some more if it gets back down to $15ish

 

Tom

[Scoreboard2017]

Last year I bought 1100 NCLH and 1100 CCL. When I had enough gains to offset 100 shares I sold 1000 shares of each so I view myself as owning the 100 shares "free & clear". As long as they will keep offering cruise credit for owning 100 shares I won't ever sell. I did not do this with RCL because 1100 shares of RCL was more of a gamble then I wanted to take at that moment in time but it also would have worked out brilliantly.