No Sail Order extended - 100 days

[VickyMcG]

1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

I only have to see that to know that I am dealing with someone whose knowledge of journalism starts and ends with Zero.

in the biz, buddy. moved by facts, not emotion or politics.

Edited May 30, 2020 by VickyMcG

[VickyMcG]

3 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

My view from reading hundreds of scientific and other factual reports on the coronavirus is that the virus is a threat to be considered, especially for Seniors with underlying conditions.

 

I am 72 and walk about 12 miles a week.  I have no underlying conditions and willing to travel once conditions allow.

However, as long as Europe is shut down to Americans and so many ports are blocked, travel is just not an option, unless I want to drive to visit family here in the USA.

 

From what I read within the past couple of weeks, the fatality rate for people my age WITH NO UNDERLYING medical conditions is extremely low.   However, my view is that until there is a vaccine (which I will take) and/or the foreign travel conditions allow us to visit, we will be home saving our money.

So agree! We are considered "ancient" haha and we walk avg 18-20 miles a week (hubby is 79!) and half is uphill, along with my floor exercizes. No underlying conditions, thank heavens.  And we feel the same way as you.  Eventually, we gotta get out there, we'll just take the necessary precautions.

[Blackduck59]

I think we have a few people who want to dismiss an article because the source doesn't fit their narrative, and that works both ways. The truth is the truth, every outlet can get it right from time to time. Some outlets have a very loose grip on the truth. Some people choose to believe that Fox news is the gospel, others would want to fact check that outlet if they reported that water was wet or the sky was blue. Others would dismiss anything from New York Times as liberal clap trap.

I tend to dismiss those sources that have a loose grip on the truth.

Just a hint when 20 different sources say X,Y and Z is the truth, and one says it's actually Y, X and C is the truth, I tend to go with the 20 sources.

Edited May 30, 2020 by Blackduck59

[ECCruise]

33 minutes ago, VickyMcG said:

in the biz, buddy. moved by facts, not emotion or politics.

Then why are both progressives and conservatives so disappointed by NYT reporting?

That to me says they are tracking a middle line that is upsetting both sides of the spectrum.

Which frankly, means they are doing their job.

BTW, I didn't quote you.  I quoted someone who took a shot at the NYT as being biased.

Edited May 30, 2020 by ECCruise

[VickyMcG]

4 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Then why are both progressives and conservatives so disappointed by NYT reporting?

That to me says they are tracking a middle line that is upsetting both sides of the spectrum.

Which frankly, means they are doing their job.

BTW, I didn't quote you.  I quoted someone who took a shot at the NYT as being biased.

Right, I gotcha. And, I agree with the prayer poster who says they go with the basic truths that are self-evident in the long run after all the reporting is said and done.

[Fouremco]

10 minutes ago, Blackduck59 said:

I think we have a few people who want to dismiss an article because the source doesn't fit their narrative, and that works both ways. The truth is the truth, every outlet can get it from right time to time. Some outlets have a very loose grip on the truth. Some people choose to believe that Fox news is the gospel, others would want to fact check that outlet if they reported that water was wet or the sky was blue. Others would dismiss anything from New York Times as liberal clap trap.

I tend to dismiss those sources that have a loose grip on the truth. Just a hint when 20 different sources say X,Y and Z is the truth, and one says it's actually Y, X and C is the truth, I tend to go with the 20 sources.

My early morning news feed takes me over an hour to read, and I have ongoing feeds throughout the day, that cover the full political spectrum. They also include US, Canadian and several European sources adding to the diversity in perspective. As you say, it doesn't take a genius to recognize spin and determine where the truth lies.

[UnorigionalName]

14 hours ago, Pushka said:

But unless it's a raging pandemic, actually getting the virus for the vast majority of people is not that significant. Older people and those with comorbidities of course are at the most risk. And yes I personally know of three people who developed the virus. 

 

There's a lot of factors that people forget about other than death rate.  Just having to spend 2 weeks in the hospital, even if you have a great survival percentage, is not really something I would look forward to.

 

A lot of people in the middle, like beyond teenage but below 65, while the chance of dying is low, the chance of hospitalization isn't that low.  It's more that while you get sick, you can also get better.  Like the people surviving off vent and off ecmo are usually the younger patients.

 

But there may turn out to be long term health effects, especially for those that ended up critically ill, even if they survive, like effects of stroke and permanent lung scarring.  All things I think people would like to avoid, that adds up to the potential dangers of the disease.

 

[VickyMcG]

58 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

My early morning news feed takes me over an hour to read, and I have ongoing feeds throughout the day, that cover the full political spectrum. They also include US, Canadian and several European sources adding to the diversity in perspective. As you say, it doesn't take a genius to recognize spin and determine where the truth lies.

My kind of informed reader! Now that we have the time.  🙂

[VickyMcG]

50 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

There's a lot of factors that people forget about other than death rate.  Just having to spend 2 weeks in the hospital, even if you have a great survival percentage, is not really something I would look forward to.

 

======

 

But there may turn out to be long term health effects, especially for those that ended up critically ill, even if they survive, like effects of stroke and permanent lung scarring.  All things I think people would like to avoid, that adds up to the potential dangers of the disease.

 

So true.  I don't want to be sick, either.

[Fouremco]

4 hours ago, VickyMcG said:

My kind of informed reader! Now that we have the time.  🙂

Being retired helps! 

[drakes2]

41 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Being retired helps! 

I do the same. Took  early retirement so time on my hands to read the news feeds and keep on top of everything. 

[Pushka]

5 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

There's a lot of factors that people forget about other than death rate.  Just having to spend 2 weeks in the hospital, even if you have a great survival percentage, is not really something I would look forward to.

 

A lot of people in the middle, like beyond teenage but below 65, while the chance of dying is low, the chance of hospitalization isn't that low.  It's more that while you get sick, you can also get better.  Like the people surviving off vent and off ecmo are usually the younger patients.

 

But there may turn out to be long term health effects, especially for those that ended up critically ill, even if they survive, like effects of stroke and permanent lung scarring.  All things I think people would like to avoid, that adds up to the potential dangers of the disease.

 

 

Yes. Those are all good points as well. I'm not sure of the experience in the US other than it seems hellish but I think less than 2% in Australia have ended up in hospital. And just 103 deaths Australia wide. I think there is only one person on a ventilator in Australia at the moment. So unless we experience the second wave, it seems likely our usual flu season may actually be worse although currently even that has been suppressed thus far. But it's likely our Australian Border will be closed for many months yet to ensure no second wave. 

[DaveSJ711]

On 5/29/2020 at 1:36 PM, pumpkin 11 said:

That's a sad story. But anecdotal examples don't make good law.

 

How about 100,000 anecdotes?  Every death from COVID has a story behind it.

[4774Papa]

21 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

There's a lot of factors that people forget about other than death rate.  Just having to spend 2 weeks in the hospital, even if you have a great survival percentage, is not really something I would look forward to.

 

A lot of people in the middle, like beyond teenage but below 65, while the chance of dying is low, the chance of hospitalization isn't that low.  It's more that while you get sick, you can also get better.  Like the people surviving off vent and off ecmo are usually the younger patients.

 

But there may turn out to be long term health effects, especially for those that ended up critically ill, even if they survive, like effects of stroke and permanent lung scarring.  All things I think people would like to avoid, that adds up to the potential dangers of the disease.

 

Here in our local South Georgia community, about 10% of Covid cases have resulted in hospitalization.

 

Also, statistics on death rates:

Without considering COVID

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate

 

All deaths including COVID

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

[bigbadandugly]

On 5/13/2020 at 11:47 AM, bigbadandugly said:

My daughter and her partner booked a Celebrity cruise departing San Juan April 24, including flights through the cruise line (thinking that provided additional protection). Well, now Celebrity is holding their flight refunds hostage.

 

We've been in contact with both airlines (Celebrity booked two different airlines for the two flights) and since both cancelled their flights, the two passengers were entitled to a refund. Both airlines have told us that their records show the money has been refunded prior to April 24. 

 

Multiple calls to Celebrity has led us to a runaround. They have confirmed that both airlines have refunded the tickets, but Celebrity is unable to refund the money due to its "processes". Because the tickets were purchased as nonrefundable tickets, Celebrity is claiming they have to process the refunds manually to avoid any penalties being deducted through the automated systems.

 

Frankly, I find this excuse complete bunk. Celebrity is clearly withholding their refund - and obviously the refunds of other cruisers - to shore up their liquidity crisis. I expected this behavior from the airlines, but am shocked that the airlines did the right thing and Celebrity has chosen to screw its customers. It's too bad Celebrity has chosen to screw over its customers, because we will certainly not be spending our vacation dollars with Celebrity any more.

 

Celebrity is clearly subscribing to the theory that "he who has the gold, is king". It has had my daughter's cash for a while and are going to hold it as long as they can to ensure its solvency. 

 

I did a chargeback a week or so ago to resolve the matter. The money has been returned to my credit card. I am now the King. Let's see how long it takes Celebrity to respond to the chargeback and what dribble it uses as an excuse. Hopefully others aren't getting screwed, but it seems even the chargeback method is failing for some people:

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/credit-card-chargebacks-challenge-1.5577722 

 

I was very disheartened to see Canada's transport Minister make these comments. It's as if it's the government's position that passengers that are being screwed by the airlines are expected to provide interest-free loans (and possibly "forgivable" if the flight credit is not used by the deadline) to support the airlines. What crazy logic.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/transport-minister-airlines-survival-versus-refunds-1.5590392 

 

Look out for yourself, people, because no one else will.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

On 5/29/2020 at 12:34 PM, phoenix_dream said:

But at the same time, many vaccines are (or at least near 100% - polio, measles, etc.). 

 

Are those diseases as prone to mutations as this one is though? Much easier to get near 100% reliability if the virus is relatively stable I would think. So far this one doesn't seem to be all that stable.

[markeb]

10 minutes ago, WrittenOnYourHeart said:

 

Are those diseases as prone to mutations as this one is though? Much easier to get near 100% reliability if the virus is relatively stable I would think. So far this one doesn't seem to be all that stable.

 

Probably, but that doesn't necessarily impact vaccine response. Even though SARS-CoV-2 is prone to mutation, like pretty much all RNA viruses (including measles and polio), not all mutations impact immune response. It appears the protective antigen is pretty stable. Some earlier concerns that I'm not sure have been resolved, but the spike protein is key to entering the human cell, and if it changes too much from mutation, it can't do that anymore. So you can have a fair amount of mutation, and still have a good vaccine target.

[Arizona Wildcat]

9 minutes ago, WrittenOnYourHeart said:

 

Are those diseases as prone to mutations as this one is though? Much easier to get near 100% reliability if the virus is relatively stable I would think. So far this one doesn't seem to be all that stable.

Would you share where you learned there is significant mutation of COVID? While small mutations in the RNA occur often;  the virus is mostly the same as when this mess began.  Sandi and others feel confident of an effective vaccine.

If COVID does begin to become like influenza the World is in for a very difficult future and cruising would likely mostly disappear.  I will not cruise if required to wear a mask - I have no underlying conditions.  My DW will not cruise without a vaccine with her asthma.

[WrittenOnYourHeart]

Just now, Arizona Wildcat said:

Would you share where you learned there is significant mutation of COVID? While small mutations in the RNA occur often;  the virus is mostly the same as when this mess began.  Sandi and others feel confident of an effective vaccine.

If COVID does begin to become like influenza the World is in for a very difficult future and cruising would likely mostly disappear.  I will not cruise if required to wear a mask - I have no underlying conditions.  My DW will not cruise without a vaccine with her asthma.

 

There have been multiple reports - including from people on here - of there being an "East Coast strain" and a "West Coast strain" at the very least.

[TeeRick]

Agree with markeb.  Remember that mutations will definitely occur particularly for RNA viruses.  But by nature they are random so the vast majority will not be productive mutations for the virus.  The mutations that negatively effect the ability of the virus to infect humans and replicate itself will not be an issue and those strains will die off.  The regions of the virus genome that are not prone to mutation and are conserved for productive viruses (like the SPIKE) are very good vaccine targets.  These types of vaccines will cover most if not all disease causing strains.  It is good news for vaccine purposes that SARS-CoV-2 has relatively few productive strains identified to date.

Edited June 2, 2020 by TeeRick

[cangelmd]

23 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Would you share where you learned there is significant mutation of COVID? While small mutations in the RNA occur often;  the virus is mostly the same as when this mess began.  Sandi and others feel confident of an effective vaccine.

If COVID does begin to become like influenza the World is in for a very difficult future and cruising would likely mostly disappear.  I will not cruise if required to wear a mask - I have no underlying conditions.  My DW will not cruise without a vaccine with her asthma.

Agree with TeeRick, a bright spot is the lack of mutation in the vaccine targets of the virus.

Also, not that this should significantly change your wife's behavior, wearing masks, social distancing etc, but might give her some peace of mind - asthma does not seem to be a strong risk factor. steroid use may be, if she happens to need heavier steroids, but more typical asthma, not so much - another COVID mystery.

[TeeRick]

Here is the latest update from the CDC (from June 3) on their role with cruise ships and the 100 day No Sail.  I cannot really see much new information but maybe ! am missing something??

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/cruise-ship/what-cdc-is-doing.html?deliveryName=USCDC_2067-DM29945

 

 

[WNcruiser]

Don't really see anything new, but thank you for staying ON TOPIC and providing information related to the no sail order. 

[Charles4515]

Here is the latest update from the CDC (from June 3) on their role with cruise ships and the 100 day No Sail.  I cannot really see much new information but maybe ! am missing something??
 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/cruise-ship/what-cdc-is-doing.html?deliveryName=USCDC_2067-DM29945
 
 

My expectation is the CDC will say something in a few weeks if they are going to do something other than extend the date. They will probably take comments and a new order has to be published.


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[TeeRick]

Yes I agree.