njhorseman Posted July 11, 2020 #101 Share Posted July 11, 2020 57 minutes ago, chipmaster said: We are aren't even to first base on this pandemic here in the US so what will 2022 be like? Interesting read on NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economy-two-years.html "Large swaths of the cruise-ship and theme-park industries might go away.... The opinion piece's quote from Warren Buffet nails it: “It’s only when the tide goes out,” Warren Buffett likes to say, “that you learn who’s been swimming naked.” The tide going out is particularly apt for the cruise industry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted July 11, 2020 #102 Share Posted July 11, 2020 1 minute ago, wowzz said: He keeps popping up on a UK forum, spouting inanities that are totally irrelevant. I know I should ignore him, but he writes such rubbish that I keep rising to the bait, which perhaps is his purpose. He has certainly never written anything which has been of the slightest use or interest. There’s someone in Fredericksburg, Virginia who leaves this fellow in the shade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare LHT28 Posted July 11, 2020 #103 Share Posted July 11, 2020 3 hours ago, wowzz said: He keeps popping up on a UK forum, spouting inanities that are totally irrelevant. I know I should ignore him, but he writes such rubbish that I keep rising to the bait, which perhaps is his purpose. He has certainly never written anything which has been of the slightest use or interest. Put him on your ignore list then sit back & enjoy the forums LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iancal Posted July 11, 2020 #104 Share Posted July 11, 2020 It is early days yet. There is a long road to recovery ahead for the cruise lines. Start up won't be the end of the threat if they are overburdened with debt negotiated at at a high interest rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldubs Posted July 11, 2020 #105 Share Posted July 11, 2020 1 hour ago, LHT28 said: Put him on your ignore list then sit back & enjoy the forums LOL Yes! I found my time being polluted by one poster who has a relentless need to bring out the negative, even when it is obvious. Now there is much happiness! Lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidi13 Posted July 11, 2020 #106 Share Posted July 11, 2020 2 hours ago, LHT28 said: Put him on your ignore list then sit back & enjoy the forums LOL Added him to the ignore list a few weeks ago😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnocket Posted July 11, 2020 #107 Share Posted July 11, 2020 9 hours ago, drsel said: According to CNBC: "Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August. The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%" CNBC’s Seema Modi reports If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships. There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability. CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare ontheweb Posted July 11, 2020 #108 Share Posted July 11, 2020 5 hours ago, mnocket said: If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships. There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability. CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture. And seeing that the stock went up after this call, he did an excellent job of painting a rosy picture. But let's wait and see if the picture and the reality of the situation end up being the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted July 11, 2020 #109 Share Posted July 11, 2020 6 hours ago, mnocket said: If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships. There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability. CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture. A meaningless “break even” claim. The “I” alone could put them in the tank - and almost surely would if they sailed at 50% for any significant time for fares their base market would tolerate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iancal Posted July 11, 2020 #110 Share Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) There can be a world of difference between forecasts and actuals. The forecast will not mean much if covid persists and eliminates most cruising for several months longer than anticipated. Or if the take rate is less than anticipated, or if the discounts required to secure the desired levels of occupancy are much larger than anticipated. Just imagine the negative impact on cruising if one ship sails too early and has a covid outbreak. The forecast will go poof. Edited July 11, 2020 by iancal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipmaster Posted July 11, 2020 #111 Share Posted July 11, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, drsel said: According to CNBC: "Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August. The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%" CNBC’s Seema Modi reports Spin and more spin, you think they are going to say the world is going to end, they are trying to manage wallstreet, the bankers to the best light duh! They need both the stock to stay positive or not drop to below 10 again, they need positive belief to secure additional financing at reasonable rates, they already pay a debt premium. They spin the future bookings, but the reality if their sailings continue to get restricted the bookings are meaningless. BTW everyone know about the Europe cruise where 1K got on, 1 got sick and well there went that cruise. Kept pretty quiet but wait till mainline press gets the story. With testing showing postive between 3-5% and some places above 20% whats the probability you have 20-30 asymptomatic carriers mingling with the highest risk cruises and OMG you got another cruise industry killing event? I am hopping come 2022 I can consider cruising again, that's the earliest I see them returning to anything I'd find intereseting. A sail to no-where with so many things restricted like gym, bar, dinner, pool, theater, whats the point? Look at a simple reduced capacity short cruise what happened, cruiselines will hide and surpress and spin the best, no different than the news / cable or spinning the end is coming https://finlandtoday.fi/several-coronavirus-cases-found-on-cruise-ferries-multiple-exposures-possible-on-silja-europa/ Edited July 11, 2020 by chipmaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayfairers Posted July 12, 2020 #112 Share Posted July 12, 2020 No surprise that there is a potential of exposure to Covid on a ferry, or an airplane, or anywhere that people are in close proximity to each other. It isn’t just cruise ships. Until there is a vaccine if you don’t want to catch Covid you don’t put yourself around a group of people. Covid is still such an unknown that any forecasts cannot be accurate. We can all hope to be back to normal a year from now, but who knows what the reality will be. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drsel Posted July 12, 2020 #113 Share Posted July 12, 2020 The Beijing institute already has got a vaccine approved.Oxford has already reached the third stage of clinical trials and will soon get approved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navybankerteacher Posted July 12, 2020 #114 Share Posted July 12, 2020 On 7/11/2020 at 7:34 AM, ontheweb said: And seeing that the stock went up after this call, he did an excellent job of painting a rosy picture. But let's wait and see if the picture and the reality of the situation end up being the same. One interesting tangential item which may cause some ruffled feathers is the report that Arison sold 10,000,000 shares of Carnival Corp. for about $43 back in mid-February, not too long before everything hit the fan. His timing was great - he’s about $280,000,000 better off now than if he had held on to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njhorseman Posted July 12, 2020 #115 Share Posted July 12, 2020 1 hour ago, drsel said: The Beijing institute already has got a vaccine approved. Do you have verification of that? Everything I've found says their vaccine is in trials just as a number of vaccines are. Like some other vaccines in trials they're looking at year end as a potential approval timeline. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine/potential-covid-19-vaccine-from-china-shows-promise-in-animal-tests-idUSKBN23H15J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/chinese-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-year-end-government-body-says-idUSKBN2360GJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njhorseman Posted July 12, 2020 #116 Share Posted July 12, 2020 2 hours ago, drsel said: Oxford has already reached the third stage of clinical trials and will soon get approved You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved". Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashland Posted July 12, 2020 #117 Share Posted July 12, 2020 59 minutes ago, njhorseman said: You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved". Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it Absolutely this ^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drsel Posted July 13, 2020 #118 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Do you have verification of that? Everything I've found says their vaccine is in trials just as a number of vaccines are. Like some other vaccines in trials they're looking at year end as a potential approval timeline.[/url]I saw this in a Whatsapp message, but I can't verify it. The source is mentioned at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drsel Posted July 13, 2020 #119 Share Posted July 13, 2020 You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved". Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market.https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-itYou may be right. I was only being hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayfairers Posted July 13, 2020 #120 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getting older slowly Posted July 13, 2020 #121 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Wayfairers said: Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf Thanks for the link If Interested the layup guide gives to a real picture of what is involved laying up a ship .. Lloyd’s Register’s layup guide, Cheers Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heidi13 Posted July 13, 2020 #122 Share Posted July 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Wayfairers said: Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf Unfortunately, your typical sensational article comprising numerous 1/2 truths. Noted the resources quoted by the author and none of them were knowledgeable Deck & Engineering Officers from pax ships or ship repair experts. This was also posted on the Viking Board, where I left a few comments. Must admit I got a good laugh from his comment about ships dropping the anchor at sea. Deepest water I have safely anchored in is a little over 100' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare babs135 Posted July 13, 2020 #123 Share Posted July 13, 2020 Talking of vaccines, here is probably one of the most up to date comment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514805/Covid-19-vaccine-ready-year-trials-successful-leading-UK-scientist-reveals.html As they say ; 'Hope springs eternal' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare Hlitner Posted July 13, 2020 #124 Share Posted July 13, 2020 3 hours ago, babs135 said: Talking of vaccines, here is probably one of the most up to date comment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514805/Covid-19-vaccine-ready-year-trials-successful-leading-UK-scientist-reveals.html As they say ; 'Hope springs eternal' Folks see what they want to see. The key to that entire article is the big "If" trials are successful. They were saying the same thing about several HIV/AIDS vaccines 35 years ago! What is left unsaid is that most vaccines that enter trials fail for various reasons. Count me among those that desperately wants to see a vaccine (about 50% of the population will likely refuse any vaccine) but more then 35 years in the health business taught me to have a healthy degree of skepticism. Hank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TNcruising02 Posted July 13, 2020 #125 Share Posted July 13, 2020 On 7/12/2020 at 10:59 AM, Wayfairers said: No surprise that there is a potential of exposure to Covid on a ferry, or an airplane, or anywhere that people are in close proximity to each other. It isn’t just cruise ships. Until there is a vaccine if you don’t want to catch Covid you don’t put yourself around a group of people. Covid is still such an unknown that any forecasts cannot be accurate. We can all hope to be back to normal a year from now, but who knows what the reality will be. I agree. Right now the virus is raging, so avoiding public places as much as possible is a good idea. I've been to the grocery store, pharmacy, my office, and home since the middle of March. As much as I would love to take a vacation, it's just not a good idea. I am glad that things are opening up and people are getting their jobs back. Some people are careful and some are not. That's just the way it is. I don't feel my risk of contracting covid-19 is greater on a cruise ship than at an airport, on a plane, in an amusement park, at a concert, on the street in marches, or anywhere else that people are in close proximity. It feels like a hurricane is moving through the world and the only way to really stay safe is to sit tight out of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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