Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Charles4515]

56 minutes ago, D C said:

No. They're not. The CDC is stuck in the past in regards to the conditional sail order while everyone else is moving on with reality.

 

The CDC agrees that vaccinated people can be in close contact without masks or distancing.  Cruise companies are saying that vaccinations will be required.   Combine those two and it's as big of a no-brainer as you can get.    Yet the CDC is not part of any public discussion.

 

They're also months late to the discussions around vaccination passports or whatever you would like to call them.  Where they should have been ahead of the game (along with other governmental agencies) with an established method for proof & verification back in December, we're quickly headed to the point where all adults are able to be vaccinated yet the only proof anyone has is a reminder card.  

 

 

The cruise lines have not met the conditions of the conditional order. The cruise lines fail. Considering what the lines did a year ago caution is prudent when dealing with cruise lines. From the discussions on CC cruise enthusiasts want to blame anyone but the cruise lines  As for vaccination passports I don’t think the passports themselves would be under CDC purview. 

[D C]

Just now, Charles4515 said:

The cruise lines have not met the conditions of the conditional order. The cruise lines fail. Considering what the lines did a year ago caution is prudent when dealing with cruise lines. From the discussions on CC cruise enthusiasts want to blame anyone but the cruise lines  As for vaccination passports I don’t think the passports themselves would be under CDC purview. 

The conditional sail order is worthless at this point as it pre-dates the submission of the first vaccine for EUA by over a month, and we now have 3 EUA approved vaccines and over 115 million doses administered.   Everyone except the CDC has been able to see that vaccines will be the way back to normalcy (including cruising).    Good on the cruise companies to home port elsewhere.  

[paulh84]

13 minutes ago, D C said:

The conditional sail order is worthless at this point as it pre-dates the submission of the first vaccine for EUA by over a month, and we now have 3 EUA approved vaccines and over 115 million doses administered.   Everyone except the CDC has been able to see that vaccines will be the way back to normalcy (including cruising).    Good on the cruise companies to home port elsewhere.  

 

CDC is going to proceed with great caution until more detail about variants are understood.

 

Celebrity is now saying June/July for Apex and Edge to sail which seems very aggressive given today's terms of the published CSO.

[markeb]

3 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Can't find the original article of the 30,000,000 vaccines, but here is a link were they are referencing it:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/11/us/politics/coronavirus-astrazeneca-united-states.html

 

The 7,000,000 releaseable vaccines is referenced in this article:

 

https://nypost.com/2021/03/18/us-to-send-millions-of-covid-vaccine-doses-to-canada-mexico/

 

As for the shelf life, a small boo-boo on my part.  I was mixing up the remaining shelf-line of an article that I had been reading on AZ vaccines in South Africa.  AZ has a shelf-line of 6 months if stored properly.   What I can't understand is why we should be accepting AZ vaccines when it looks like we can't use them?  We should have started getting rid of them as soon as J&J was approved. 

 

Reading the article, I don't think the government has accepted delivery. It sounds like it's still vendor managed inventory. The limbo is at least partially because of the use of the Defense Production Act in manufacturing, which apparently precludes, or at least makes it difficult, for AZ to export the production to meet orders elsewhere and make replacement lots for its contract obligations.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if AZ has data on long term storage of both bulk material and filled vials at lower temperatures, so that the 6 months really isn't relevant while it's still under their control. That may not be the case, but it wouldn't be unusual.

 

What it actually sounds like is you have AZ owned and controlled product that is slated to meet US delivery contracts that's stuck in a crazy bureaucratic, political, and policy do loop. It's almost certainly not USG owned product at this point. At some point, hopefully soon, I would expect AZ to be allowed to sell the vaccine elsewhere and export it; whether the US government determines it's accepted delivery, virtually if not physically, of the product and "donates" it is actually a different question.

 

Of course, it's also possible they got almost everything wrong in the articles, and the 7M doses actually represents the material that's been through fill/finish and is vialed and ready to go, and everything else is still bulk. Don't know the backgrounds of the authors of either article and whether they'd know the difference...

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, cangelmd said:

I don’t know anything about Rand, but JHU has some big blind spots.

 

Thanks for the input.  Appreciate it. 

I was mostly talking about the modeling for predictions for the spikes predicted for the November/December Holiday Season (both Rand and JHU as well as others), most of which were fairly accurate.

[D C]

6 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Thanks for the input.  Appreciate it. 

I was mostly talking about the modeling for predictions for the spikes predicted for the November/December Holiday Season (both Rand and JHU as well as others), most of which were fairly accurate.

Do you have a link where I can find the August/September models that show those peaks along with the confidence band for the model? I can't find anything like that. 

[ECCruise]

14 minutes ago, D C said:

Do you have a link where I can find the August/September models that show those peaks along with the confidence band for the model? I can't find anything like that. 

There were literally dozens nationally and by state, but why would they have to be in August/September?  Most were in November as we neared the holiday season. 

Here's one summary. 

[Ken the cruiser]

2 hours ago, cangelmd said:

One day each week during this time, the state has posted big backlogs from as far back as October - our daily numbers are averaging about 600 new cases, varying from 300-800- these backlogs were 2700 and 1500, of course it skews the averages.

JHU is covering the world, they aren’t parsing the state level data the way our independent state level tracker does- and CNN reports whatever they want to report.

Thanks for posting this. I was wondering why such a big surge (4,556) in positive cases one day last week.

 

Have we flattened the curve in Alabama? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

[cangelmd]

1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

Thanks for the input.  Appreciate it. 

I was mostly talking about the modeling for predictions for the spikes predicted for the November/December Holiday Season (both Rand and JHU as well as others), most of which were fairly accurate.

Yes,  realized you were talking about the modeling. I am far from understanding that math! But I would recommend anyone who is concerned or confused about modeling or any stats related to the virus to try to find the original presentation of any data if possible. Once it gets reported in the media - left or right leaning - cherry-picking for click bait seems to start

[cangelmd]

40 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks for posting this. I was wondering why such a big surge (4,556) in positive cases one day last week.

 

Have we flattened the curve in Alabama? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

Something that very much concerns me is that the confirmed hospitalizations are flattening out even more than the cases. 
JHU is doing great work, but I don’t think their data is “granular” enough to follow on less than a month to month basis, especially now that numbers are reduced and you can see a doubling of cases in one day just because it’s midweek, and the reporting is more real time - the numbers go right back down by half the next day.

 

[paulh84]

8 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Yes,  realized you were talking about the modeling. I am far from understanding that math! But I would recommend anyone who is concerned or confused about modeling or any stats related to the virus to try to find the original presentation of any data if possible. Once it gets reported in the media - left or right leaning - cherry-picking for click bait seems to start

 

You mean when they use an average of an average or don't know the difference between percentage point change, percentage difference or percentage change? If I had hair to pull out, that stuff would do it 🤪

Edited March 19, 2021 by paulh84

[Host Jazzbeau]

3 minutes ago, paulh84 said:

 

You mean when they use an average of an average or don't know the difference between percentage point change, percentage difference or percentage change? If I had hair to pull out, that stuff would do it 🤪

 

Even when reporters were unbiased, few of them were good at math...

[Arizona Wildcat]

3 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Reading the article, I don't think the government has accepted delivery. It sounds like it's still vendor managed inventory. The limbo is at least partially because of the use of the Defense Production Act in manufacturing, which apparently precludes, or at least makes it difficult, for AZ to export the production to meet orders elsewhere and make replacement lots for its contract obligations.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me if AZ has data on long term storage of both bulk material and filled vials at lower temperatures, so that the 6 months really isn't relevant while it's still under their control. That may not be the case, but it wouldn't be unusual.

 

What it actually sounds like is you have AZ owned and controlled product that is slated to meet US delivery contracts that's stuck in a crazy bureaucratic, political, and policy do loop. It's almost certainly not USG owned product at this point. At some point, hopefully soon, I would expect AZ to be allowed to sell the vaccine elsewhere and export it; whether the US government determines it's accepted delivery, virtually if not physically, of the product and "donates" it is actually a different question.

 

Of course, it's also possible they got almost everything wrong in the articles, and the 7M doses actually represents the material that's been through fill/finish and is vialed and ready to go, and everything else is still bulk. Don't know the backgrounds of the authors of either article and whether they'd know the difference...

There are millions of doses of several vaccines manufactured in the US but not approved for use here.  Under the Defense Production Act and Presidential Orders those doses cannot be exported without a specific Presidential waiver.  So as of today in limbo.

[Host Jazzbeau]

2 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

There are millions of doses of several vaccines manufactured in the US but not approved for use here.  Under the Defense Production Act and Presidential Orders those doses cannot be exported without a specific Presidential waiver.  So as of today in limbo.

Suddenly 'sovereignty' has even more important meanings.  The UK's superior experience with the vaccine was never thought of in the debate over Brexit.

[D C]

6 hours ago, ECCruise said:

There were literally dozens nationally and by state, but why would they have to be in August/September?  Most were in November as we neared the holiday season. 

Here's one summary. 

Why August/September? Because a model that tells me what's happening tomorrow is useless.   Cases are rising. What's going to happen tomorrow?   A group of elementary school kids can guess that reasonably enough.  Actual future predictions that are months away and at all accurate simply have not existed in the past year. 

[LGW59]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Suddenly 'sovereignty' has even more important meanings.  The UK's superior experience with the vaccine was never thought of in the debate over Brexit.

🙄

[K.T.B.]

9 hours ago, D C said:

No. They're not. The CDC is stuck in the past in regards to the conditional sail order while everyone else is moving on with reality.

 

The CDC agrees that vaccinated people can be in close contact without masks or distancing.  Cruise companies are saying that vaccinations will be required.   Combine those two and it's as big of a no-brainer as you can get.    Yet the CDC is not part of any public discussion.

 

They're also months late to the discussions around vaccination passports or whatever you would like to call them.  Where they should have been ahead of the game (along with other governmental agencies) with an established method for proof & verification back in December, we're quickly headed to the point where all adults are able to be vaccinated yet the only proof anyone has is a reminder card.  

 

 

 

Wrong.

 

LINK 

 

Under the "Do I need to wear a mask..." section:  Until more is known, fully vaccinated people should continue to wear masks and stay 6 feet apart from other people in other settings, like when they are in public or visiting with unvaccinated people from multiple households.

[D C]

5 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Wrong.

 

LINK 

 

Under the "Do I need to wear a mask..." section:  Until more is known, fully vaccinated people should continue to wear masks and stay 6 feet apart from other people in other settings, like when they are in public or visiting with unvaccinated people from multiple households.

Re-read your own quote. 

 

I'll help you out with a quote from your link:

Fully vaccinated people can gather indoors without physical distancing or wearing masks with:

• Other people who are fully vaccinated

Edited March 20, 2021 by D C

[D C]

1 hour ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Suddenly 'sovereignty' has even more important meanings.  The UK's superior experience with the vaccine was never thought of in the debate over Brexit.

 

12 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

🙄

Why the eye roll? The UK is arguably doing far better with vaccinations than the EU. 

[K.T.B.]

8 minutes ago, D C said:

Re-read your own quote. 

 

I'll help you out with a quote from your link:

Fully vaccinated people can gather indoors without physical distancing or wearing masks with:

• Other people who are fully vaccinated

 

In you're on a cruise ship with anyone under 18, they won't be fully vaccinated.  Period.

 

[ECCruise]

9 hours ago, D C said:

Why August/September? Because a model that tells me what's happening tomorrow is useless.   Cases are rising. What's going to happen tomorrow?   A group of elementary school kids can guess that reasonably enough.  Actual future predictions that are months away and at all accurate simply have not existed in the past year. 

I understand your thinking.

 

However, with a rapidly changing situation, states considering reopening and actually reopening, lots of variance in application of, e.g., masking and distancing, and all of this happening at the same time, I think insistence of a 5 month accurate model is, at best, naïve.  

[TeeRick]

I just posted this elsewhere but I find it highly relevant to whether I would cruise based on the announcements this week for Millennium (St. Martin) and Adventure OTS (Bahamas).   In addition to the ships not actually being fully vaccinated (not required for under 18), there is this gem in the fine print of the email sent to me (from RCCL).  Celebrity probably the same.  Check out Threshold Level.  So no way I would cruise.

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

[paulh84]

7 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I just posted this elsewhere but I find it highly relevant to whether I would cruise based on the announcements this week for Millennium (St. Martin) and Adventure OTS (Bahamas).   In addition to the ships not actually being fully vaccinated (not required for under 18), there is this gem in the fine print of the email sent to me (from RCCL).  Celebrity probably the same.  Check out Threshold Level.  So no way I would cruise.

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

 

This is what I said yesterday. Without a clear understanding of what happens when COVID appears on the ship, there's no way I'm spending $5k+ to play guinea pig to test the plan.

 

An island like Aruba as of today says sure, we'll let you dock even with positive cases on board. Ship is now on it's way, Aruba finds out the number of cases on board, authorities get cold feet and say nope. Not docking. Next island, next attempt...what happens??? 

[hcat]

28 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I just posted this elsewhere but I find it highly relevant to whether I would cruise based on the announcements this week for Millennium (St. Martin) and Adventure OTS (Bahamas).   In addition to the ships not actually being fully vaccinated (not required for under 18), there is this gem in the fine print of the email sent to me (from RCCL).  Celebrity probably the same.  Check out Threshold Level.  So no way I would cruise.

 

NOTICE: Prior to booking, please consult all applicable U.S. Centers for Disease Control travel advisories, warnings, or recommendations relating to cruise travel, at cdc.gov/travel/notices. If a certain threshold level of COVID-19 is detected onboard the ship during your voyage, the voyage will end immediately, the ship will return to the port of embarkation, and your subsequent travel, including your return home, may be restricted or delayed.

 

If the cruises are not to and from US ports.would CDC rules still apply?

I do agree there are  too many risks for us to forge ahead...but if US ports do not open soon, we have no  other way to use up our large FCC...

[paulh84]

13 minutes ago, hcat said:

If the cruises are not to and from US ports.would CDC rules still apply?

I do agree there are  too many risks for us to forge ahead...but if US ports do not open soon, we have no  other way to use up our large FCC...

 

This is two parts. First is saying pay attention to the travel warnings. Secondly, if the COVID threshold is met, cruise is over.