CDC No Sail Order July 16 Update

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

If public behavior and attitudes to wearing masks, as currently being exhibited, continues, then I would fully expect the CDC to extend this order past 30 Sept 2020.  Right now Florida by itself would be the fourth-worst country if it was not part of the US.

 

I know there is a lot of anger and frustration being targeted at the cruise lines for not coming up with a "coherent plan", but I just wonder if that is a bridge too far, a Mission: Impossible situation.  

 

The CDC wants a plan for loading thousands of passengers and thousands of crew onto a vessel for a week, visiting lots of foreign ports.  I think the only way to make that achievable is rapid-turn (accurate) testing for active infections at the time of boarding (prior to boarding), with massive isolation of test subjects while the results are run to ensure any positives haven't been co-mingling with the negatives.  Then rinse and repeat for every port visited.  Otherwise you risk letting even a single case on board, and the resultant bedlam that would ensue would be untenable.

 

And that simply does not seem realistic.  

 

Every other approach, IMHO, compromises the ability to be sure you have minimized any opportunity to introduce the infection on board.

 

An effective vaccine would be the other approach - everyone boarding must show proof of having received the vaccine.  That isn't going to be feasible until early 2021, I suspect (happy to be wrong if it is earlier).

 

I now fully expect my cruise in Dec on Radiance/Breeze to be cancelled.  I may cancel it myself when Carnival gets all the cabin re-assignments done, but I would prefer to have Carnival cancel it, since I have a cruise booked on Mardi Gras in April 2021 that could benefit from the OBC that will likely be offered.  Of course, maybe I'm dreaming there too.

Nice post

[cruiser man 60]

Looks like MSC will be joining Aida , Costa & TUI in restarting in Europe soon , just waiting final approvals. This is what MSC just said, I can't understand why the CDC and US cruises lines can't sort anything similar out.

 

Please note that at the present time we are in the very final stages of review by the relevant authorities of our new health and safety operating protocol which will be deployed to our ships to support their return to operations, initially in the Mediterranean and as currently planned, from 16 August onwards for some markets.
 

As a reminder, our new health and safety operating protocol has been designed on regional and national guidelines set forth amongst other by the EU Healthy Gateways, the European Union-funded Joint Action, and will also align with those issued by the European Maritime Safety Agency, EMSA. At the present time, we are waiting for final approval from the national authorities from the countries that our ships plan to visit along their East and West Mediterranean itineraries from the second half of August onwards.

[ProgRockCruiser]

16 minutes ago, cruiser man 60 said:

Looks like MSC will be joining Aida , Costa & TUI in restarting in Europe soon , just waiting final approvals. This is what MSC just said, I can't understand why the CDC and US cruises lines can't sort anything similar out.

The CDC and the US cruise lines do not have the luxury of the low case count currently in place in Europe.  If the US case count was in comparable shape, I'm sure the CDC and the cruise lines would be working to a similar implementation.

 

The entire EU has a daily new case rate hovering around 5000.  Florida alone is reporting over 10000 new cases per day regularly now: almost 14000 yesterday, over 10000 the day before.  It hasn't been below 5000 since 23 June.  Enitre US is well into the 60000 cases per day range, over 70000 yesterday.

 

Why would you think the CDC could sort something out of that set of numbers?

Edited July 17, 2020 by ProgRockCruiser

[latserrof]

16 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

The cruise lines have been "sc**ing the pooch" for months waiting for the pandemic to lessen and the requirements to ease, and just now they realize that ain't gonna happen.

I believe the cruise lines knew long ago that they are in an untenable position (due to the virus, NOT the CDC) and meanwhile they have just been going through the pr motions to try to salvage any scrap of confidence in their future.

[fragilek]

36 minutes ago, cruiser man 60 said:

Looks like MSC will be joining Aida , Costa & TUI in restarting in Europe soon , just waiting final approvals. This is what MSC just said, I can't understand why the CDC and US cruises lines can't sort anything similar out.

 

Please note that at the present time we are in the very final stages of review by the relevant authorities of our new health and safety operating protocol which will be deployed to our ships to support their return to operations, initially in the Mediterranean and as currently planned, from 16 August onwards for some markets.
 

As a reminder, our new health and safety operating protocol has been designed on regional and national guidelines set forth amongst other by the EU Healthy Gateways, the European Union-funded Joint Action, and will also align with those issued by the European Maritime Safety Agency, EMSA. At the present time, we are waiting for final approval from the national authorities from the countries that our ships plan to visit along their East and West Mediterranean itineraries from the second half of August onwards.

 I am just not that sure that this will go anything like as smoothly as they suggest.  Just today one of the main ports towns Barcelona has just gone under restrictions.  Some others areas in Spain already have gone back to lockdown.  The Baltic and Adriatic ports along with some parts of Greece and now also under strain due to upticks in cases.  Different countries have now created differing lists of allowed place to visit with 14 day quarantine imposed on either arrival or return to home country (for example I can not go to some Baltic or Adriatic countries or to Spain Sweden and Portugal without a 14 quarantine on my return .  At best I can see cruises like MSC doing cruises round their own home country and a few select 'safe' islands.

 

here is TUI lastest update and I have heard more are to be added in the next week or so

Marella Cruises sailings on or before 27 August 2020 and all sailings detailed below

– All sailings on Marella Celebration
– Sailings on Marella Discovery 2 from Naples, Asia and the Middle East up to 30 April 2021
– Sailings on Marella Dream from Palma up to 4 May 2021
– Marella Discovery sailings on or before 31 October 2020, and from Jamaica in December 2020 and January 2021, and sailings on 2 and 9 February 2021
– Marella Explorer 2 sailings from Naples between 5 May 2021 to 20 October 2021, and the 90s v 00s Sunsets cruise on 5 September 2020

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by fragilek
added more

[jimbo5544]

49 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

The CDC and the US cruise lines do not have the luxury of the low case count currently in place in Europe.  If the US case count was in comparable shape, I'm sure the CDC and the cruise lines would be working to a similar implementation.

 

The entire EU has a daily new case rate hovering around 5000.  Florida alone is reporting over 10000 new cases per day regularly now: almost 14000 yesterday, over 10000 the day before.  It hasn't been below 5000 since 23 June.  Enitre US is well into the 60000 cases per day range, over 70000 yesterday.

 

Why would you think the CDC could sort something out of that set of numbers?

I think there are two separate topics, one - what the cruise lines need to do in order to meet the mandate and two - what the virus dictates.  Both need to be met.

[MrPatches]

34 minutes ago, latserrof said:

I believe the cruise lines knew long ago that they are in an untenable position (due to the virus, NOT the CDC) and meanwhile they have just been going through the pr motions to try to salvage any scrap of confidence in their future.

Absolutely.  And the "dreamers" keep the dream alive.

 

When cruising resumes, it will be a very different product than we have now and a more expensive product.  I'm predicting that the mass market cruises will be more like the luxury lines.

[cruiser man 60]

41 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 I am just not that sure that this will go anything like as smoothly as they suggest.  Just today one of the main ports towns Barcelona has just gone under restrictions.  Some others areas in Spain already have gone back to lockdown.  The Baltic and Adriatic ports along with some parts of Greece and now also under strain due to upticks in cases.  Different countries have now created differing lists of allowed place to visit with 14 day quarantine imposed on either arrival or return to home country (for example I can not go to some Baltic or Adriatic countries or to Spain Sweden and Portugal without a 14 quarantine on my return .  At best I can see cruises like MSC doing cruises round their own home country and a few select 'safe' islands.

 

here is TUI lastest update and I have heard more are to be added in the next week or so

Marella Cruises sailings on or before 27 August 2020 and all sailings detailed below

– All sailings on Marella Celebration
– Sailings on Marella Discovery 2 from Naples, Asia and the Middle East up to 30 April 2021
– Sailings on Marella Dream from Palma up to 4 May 2021
– Marella Discovery sailings on or before 31 October 2020, and from Jamaica in December 2020 and January 2021, and sailings on 2 and 9 February 2021
– Marella Explorer 2 sailings from Naples between 5 May 2021 to 20 October 2021, and the 90s v 00s Sunsets cruise on 5 September 2020

 

The Marella cruises are aimed at U.K. Cruisers , TUI the parent company are restarting cruises for Germans only at end the of this month, similar to Aida.Costa are doing same in August but just for Italians.

i expect MSC will just stick to around Italy and maybe France at start and may limit to just European cruisers, Spain won't be on itineraries.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23207-tui-to-restart-operations-at-end-of-july.html

Edited July 17, 2020 by cruiser man 60

[fragilek]

9 minutes ago, cruiser man 60 said:

The Marella cruises are aimed at U.K. Cruisers , TUI the parent company are restarting cruises for Germans only at end the of this month, similar to Aida.Costa are doing same in August but just for Italians.

i expect MSC will just stick to around Italy and maybe France at start and may limit to just European cruisers, Spain won't be on itineraries.

that's kind of what I meant.  Costa and MSC usually have mixed clientele.  Last Costa (only and last lol- amazing Itinerary and entertainment but the food was so poor) I went on last year had a lot of french as well as Italians along with quite a few UK people and eastern EU as well.  MSC has similar clientele (but I think less french than Costa).  I will be curious as what they will do with their UK clients, especially those from Scotland as our restrictions on travel are tighter than other UK nations, as virus levels here are now a good bit lower than rest of UK.  I have quite a few Yacht club friends that are waiting to find out as they are booked in Sept /Oct. Meant to be sailing from Barcelona as yet no update

Edited July 17, 2020 by fragilek
sp

[cruiser man 60]

I don't think MSC will take into consideration if Scottish cruisers can't go as they will consider UK as a whole with bulk being able to go if U.K. lift advice on no cruising.

[jimbo5544]

52 minutes ago, MrPatches said:

Absolutely.  And the "dreamers" keep the dream alive.

 

When cruising resumes, it will be a very different product than we have now and a more expensive product.  I'm predicting that the mass market cruises will be more like the luxury lines.

Describe expensive

[crewsweeper]

There's a line in Kevin Barry's Night Boat to Tangier: "...the ships will come and go again.  We are moved by water and our hearts lift up."

 

Patience all. Patience.

[MrPatches]

8 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Describe expensive

It's relative, but I'd say about 50% of the current cost.  Also, they may change cabin capacity.  Maybe limit it to 2 adults/cabin.  Another idea is to be more "single occupancy" friendly.

[coevan]

15 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

Describe expensive

 quoting Webster "costing lots of money"

[PhillyFan33579]

3 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

 Yes, it's likely a bridge way, way too far. 

 

 If the cruise lines publicly admit that, they would have to stop collecting new deposits on cruises that they know won't sail.

 

Part of the web of dishonesty in the industry 
 

Is it dishonesty or is it the only way cruise lines can survive right now? Personally I have not booked any cruises since March when things started going down hill, since I prefer my money to make me money, not help the cruise lines.  
 

However, I am grateful for everyone out there who continues to book cruises and give money to cruise lines. They are helping keep the cruise lines from going under. Without all these people continuing to book cruises, you would likely see cruise line(s) declaring bankruptcy in the near future. 
 

I enjoy cruising as much as anyone. Over the last 3 years my wife and I have been on 27 cruises so it has been a big change this year with one cruise after another being cancelled.  However, I have enough interests in life that I would be fine if I never went on another cruise, which is why I will not book any more cruises until if/when cruise lines resume operations. 

[glrounds]

4 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

 If the cruise lines publicly admit that, they would have to stop collecting new deposits on cruises that they know won't sail.

 

Part of the web of dishonesty in the industry 
 

 

But, but, but . . . this is their only source of INCOME at this time.😀 They'll surely run out of high risk investors lending them more money eventually, if they haven't already. I was holding off deciding about rebooking and scooping up that $650 OBC, but have almost decided now to start the REFUND process, which some indicate takes forever, but maybe would save losing it all.

 

I realize it's just business, but at some point they've got to stop taking the "cruise dreamers" money when they can see the writing on the wall. 😞

Edited July 17, 2020 by glrounds

[latserrof]

1 hour ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Is it dishonesty or is it the only way cruise lines can survive right now? P

 

Yes.

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, coevan said:

 quoting Webster "costing lots of money"

My lots and your lots could be miles apart, but thanks for look up.

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, MrPatches said:

It's relative, but I'd say about 50% of the current cost.  Also, they may change cabin capacity.  Maybe limit it to 2 adults/cabin.  Another idea is to be more "single occupancy" friendly.

If you mean better pricing by single occupancy friendly, that cuts across the grain of your reply.  I believe the occupancy control is inevitable in the early phases and I would agree that will impact pricing.  My guess on past performance would be that the vast majority of their cabins only had 2 adults, so I do think that is a big player.  50% increase sounds high to me based upon them being the value champion in the industry, but the old rule of supply and demand will surely take control.  Demand is still out there, it will be interesting to watch.  

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, crewsweeper said:

There's a line in Kevin Barry's Night Boat to Tangier: "...the ships will come and go again.  We are moved by water and our hearts lift up."

 

Patience all. Patience.

Waxing poetic can not hurt....

[jetsfan58]

My belief is that since Florida will play a major role in the Cruise Industries return, they need to lead by example and require mask for everyone going out. Also opening Disney was absurd. Sometimes you don't need rules; Just Common Sense! 

[linz98144]

48 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

My belief is that since Florida will play a major role in the Cruise Industries return, they need to lead by example and require mask for everyone going out. Also opening Disney was absurd. Sometimes you don't need rules; Just Common Sense! 

I haven't been following cases in Florida, are a large portion of the new cases attributed to Disneyworld? 

[jimbo5544]

5 minutes ago, linz98144 said:

I haven't been following cases in Florida, are a large portion of the new cases attributed to Disneyworld? 

Ummm no

[MrPatches]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

If you mean better pricing by single occupancy friendly, that cuts across the grain of your reply.  I believe the occupancy control is inevitable in the early phases and I would agree that will impact pricing.  My guess on past performance would be that the vast majority of their cabins only had 2 adults, so I do think that is a big player.  50% increase sounds high to me based upon them being the value champion in the industry, but the old rule of supply and demand will surely take control.  Demand is still out there, it will be interesting to watch.  

Perhaps a new target market?  More upscale with more upscale venues on board.  Not allowing "lots of people/cabin".

[gatour]

From what I have read the CDC just gave very, very broad guidelines in regards to what they expect.  So even if the cruise lines spent weeks to submit a plan, due to the mood of the reviewing person, the CDC could throw it out unilaterly.

 

While the EU gave more concise guidelines and seemed to want to work collaboratively with the cruise lines.

 

I find the comparison to Walt Disney World apropos.  Walt Disney World and cruise ships have similar crowd patterns.  I.E.  people standing in lines, going to shows, bunching up.  The difference is that the CDC can dictate what the cruise lines do, but not what Walt Disney World does in regards to opening up.  I imagine if CDC had the authority, they would not have allowed Walt Disney World to reopen.