Hurricane Irma Watch

[spleenstomper]

Your basic point is right. This is a big storm and it is foolish to even contemplate going TO a hurricane. The only people who should be thinking about heading toward FL between now and the middle of next week are emergency personnel.

 

That said, an F5 tornado has estimated winds of 260 to 320mph. That's a different critter than even this hurricane right in the eyewall.

 

Once you hit 200 mph, the end result is the same.

 

ETA: you used the old Fujita scale. The new enhanced scale gives F5 200 mph and above

Edited September 6, 2017 by spleenstomper

[mattressking123]

I do not want to come off as uncaring to those souls in the path and wraith of the hurricane. We are scheduled to fly via Southwest to San Juan Friday evening, 9/8.Cruising on the Adventure of the Seas - Saturday, 9/9 to ABC islands and St Martin. I called Southwest this morning, because our TA @ MEI suggested we try to change our one stop over flight to San Juan: from Baltimore to Tampa to San Juan. She suggested a non-stop from BWI to SJU. However, the Southwest Agent said all flights to San Juan were locked out do to the path of the hurricane. He referred me to Southwest’s website.

"Based on the forecasted weather conditions for the following cities, our scheduled service on Tuesday, September 5, thru Monday, September 11, may be disrupted (flights may be delayed, diverted, and/or cancelled):

• Fort Lauderdale (FLL)
  
• Fort Myers (RSW)
  
• Havana (HAV)
  
• Nassau (NAS)
  
• Orlando (MCO)
  
• Punta Cana (PUJ)
  
• San Juan (SJU)
  
• West Palm Beach (PBI)
  

Customers who are holding reservations on Tuesday, September 5, thru Monday, September 11, and want to alter their travel plans may rebook in the original class of service or travel standby (within 14 days of their original date of travel between the originalcity-pairs and in accordance with our accommodation procedures) without paying any additional charge." -SOUTHWEST

 

We paid for the Royal Caribbean Travel Protection Program. If the Adventure of the Sea sails on Saturday and we CANNOT get a flight to San Juan,will the Royal Caribbean Travel Protection Program allow us a future cruise credit?

[ONECRUISER]

Plus the ship won't be full. Two deck chairs for every passenger.

That part I'd like. I remember the days cruise ships at certain times of yr would sail with only 2/3 passengers they could carry. Lot of empty cabins and upgrades available at the pier...

[destiny217]

http://www.royalcaribbean.com/beforeyouboard/itineraryUpdates.do?cS=NAVBAR&pnav=3&snav=10

[Goes211]

Just waited on hold for over an hour with RC only to get a recorded message that said we are now closed...please call back tomorrow =(

I have so any questions and not sure what to do? We are not overly happy with our options right now and the window for changing our flights is getting smaller. You'd think RC might at least try and have some extended hours during something like this?

[Coopdog08]

00Z GFS is rolling out now.

 

There was some speculation online that the 18Z run initialized poorly and that this run would likely be more in line with the Euro model.

 

We'll know soon.

Basically same run as before for fla. Eye stays off coast, Matthew 2.0. The difference in this run was hit close to Charleston vs NMB and Wilmington.

[spleenstomper]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/Irma_6Sep17_Martinique.gif

 

Eye approaching

[lbjen]

Just waited on hold for over an hour with RC only to get a recorded message that said we are now closed...please call back tomorrow =(

I have so any questions and not sure what to do? We are not overly happy with our options right now and the window for changing our flights is getting smaller. You'd think RC might at least try and have some extended hours during something like this?

 

What other options are you hoping for?

[Misplaced Texan]

Basically same run as before for fla. Eye stays off coast, Matthew 2.0. The difference in this run was hit close to Charleston vs NMB and Wilmington.

 

Yeah, looks to be slightly further south which gets it a bit closer to FL (which means more wind and more damage).

 

Assuming GFS is right at all, the slight differences between these tracks is the difference between a fairly quick clean-up and most infrastructure being back online mid-week and a huge mess with longer-lasting delays in the ability to fly/drive/cruise to and from some of the coast.

 

ETA: Poking around at the lat/long details, it looks like about a 65 mile mean shift westward while it transits FL.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Misplaced Texan

[spleenstomper]

Lightning inside the eyewall... she is still strengthening...

[Misplaced Texan]

Not sure what the rules are about posting from youtube, but if you google the video at hG-GpHPkBoM or know how to modify the url to insert that, it's a live webcam on St. Barth.

 

IjGdi7z_B4U will get you one on Jost Van Dyke.

[Misplaced Texan]

Final thought and then to bed: looking at the wind speed forecasts on the GFS, even that 00Z model leaves the FL coast relatively okay. But any further shift west would make a big difference.

 

Of course, if it stays out east of us then SC has a big problem. Like a Hugo-sized problem plus a chunk

[HallOfPromise]

I'm on the Allure Sept 10 sailing, and I am not happy with my options, either. We live in California so the 4-night alternative is not attractive to us, and we don't want to have our money tied up with one company if we choose to cancel. If I cancel, I would like my money back. Because of this we our contacting our travel insurance to see if we have other options under trip interruption and hurricane altering our travels.

[Jellyrolls]

We were booked on the majesty of the seas cruise that got cancelled. We are already in Florida with a flight home booked for Next Monday. We are riding out the storm at Disney. I am hoping and praying that it turns off or weakens.

[Johnamac123]

We were booked on the majesty of the seas cruise that got cancelled. We are already in Florida with a flight home booked for Next Monday. We are riding out the storm at Disney. I am hoping and praying that it turns off or weakens.

 

GREAT place to ride out a storm... Best of luck!!!!

[Cel_cruise]

We were booked on the majesty of the seas cruise that got cancelled. We are already in Florida with a flight home booked for Next Monday. We are riding out the storm at Disney. I am hoping and praying that it turns off or weakens.

 

 

 

We were in Disney for Matthew last year - I have NOTHING but AMAZING things to say about how it was handled at our resort (Poly). Honestly - between the empty park time in the day before the storm really hit and the awesome resort party that was held as soon as the shelter in place ended - it was awesome. One of our best Disney memories and we travel there multiple times each year. The Disney Ride-Out Crews (who volunteer for these assignments) are the best of the best.

 

That being said - at several of the non-deluxe resorts it was not quite as magical. Definitely order some food from PRIME NOW if you are an Amazon subscriber or hit the grocery store if you are elsewhere as the lines for the larger resorts were horrific for bag lunches!

 

Stay safe!

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Milwaukee Eight]

Lightning inside the eyewall... she is still strengthening...

 

 

 

And just how do you KNOW this? You in a position to see lightning inside the eyewall?

 

 

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[dreadpirate3]

5AM Update

 

Sent from Middle Earth.

[Jerseygirl1416]

Hey there spleenstomper. I stopped looking at the weather channel because I got tired of the drama. I've been on my roll call for the September 10th sailing on Allure and MORE drama. Yes, it's BIG and right now it's a big ol' 5, but after raking the Antilles, Hispanoila, PR, Cuba etc it should calm down a bit. It's a fast moving storm, not a slow drowning drencher like Harvey so WHY are they canceling 7 day cruises?? If Allure can't disembark passengers on Sunday as scheduled, but could do it on Monday instead, why cancel a cruise ?? Why is everyone in PMS mode ?

 

I'm flying in to FLL on Friday, before the airports close. I'm bringing those battery powered tea lights, battery chargers for our phones, snacks galore and the latest Mitch Rapp book with a battery powered book light. i'm not being cavalier about this hurricane. I went through horrific tornados in WI , lived in Tampa for 7 years and my husband and I were chased from Miami and across Alligator Alley by Andrew. It was a memorable honeymoon that we still talk about 25 years later !

 

Why wouldn't Allure sail on Monday afternoon after the storm has passed ? Am I missing something ?? It sounds like if I am truly being a bit of a cheddar head, you would be the person to point it out. I just figured that it would be better to go a day earlier than to travel on Saturday and have FLL airport close in my face as I layover in Atlanta - thereby stranding us for 1-2 days before the airport opens again in FLL. And if Irma goes up the middle of FL, right up into Atlanta, well then I can spend yet another night in the Atlanta airport.

 

Can you, or can't you, wait out a hurricane - even a category 4 - in a hotel room ? Anybody ?? Real question, definitely not sarcasm, so please don't take it that way. I'm a feisty old broad but not mean !

 

First, I'm pretty sure your flight will be cancelled on Friday but you really don't have a clue about hurricanes if you think you should fly to a hurricane of any size.

 

My sister in Naples has been trying to get out by plane or train but everything is fully booked. She's going to have to drive north.

 

After Sandy which was barely a one we were out of power for two weeks and then a gas shortage. I would have really been upset if I purposely put myself in that position.

 

I'd rethink even in the slight chance your flight isn't cancelled. This isn't drama if you ever lived through a hurricane it's reality.

[mandyleighflies]

I can say from an airline employee perspective this much. The airlines WILL cancel flights and get planes out of hurricane paths. I would make a safe estimate now that if you're flying into southern FL between Thursday and Saturday, possibly even Sunday, depending on damage, your flight will be cancelled. All airlines have their own policies with rebooking due to weather, I would start looking for updates from my airline if I were flying into southern FL this week. I know the airline I work for (MAJOR US carrier) did not start flying commercial flights into IAH until last Friday evening/Saturday and that was a reduced schedule. We did not have crew overnight there until this past week to give hotels time to have simple life needs such as electricity, water and food options. I'm just trying to add some insider perspective for the flying portion of the conversation. We don't cruise until the 15th out of PC but even we are keeping an eye on the news from our airline to see how our flights could/would/will be affected.

[fragilek]

although not going to affect my cruise yet as its not for 8 weeks I am thinking my cruise must be a Johna as we are visiting St Martin, BVI, St Kitts and Antigua. Not sure I want to see the mess on some of those islands - It will be sole destroying! However, at the moment I am more worried about the lives of those there and for the people in FL or NC who have to worry about facing this. My family have decided to get out of Florida (they just moved to Boca Raton 4 weeks ago). Their initial plan was to drive up to universal in Orlando but as the track didn't look good they have booked to fly out tomorrow. Pre kids they rode out Ivan in Cayman but no way would they ever do that again - Once bitten!!

[Pushkin]

Does anyone have an idea of what the impact of Irma will do to future eastern/southern Caribbean sailings? It sounds like the islands will be devasted. I am wondering how long before they will be able to port ships and be able to accept tourists.

 

Do the cruise lines still sail to islands that have not recovered from a hurricane?

[put me on a ship]

Hey there spleenstomper. I stopped looking at the weather channel because I got tired of the drama. I've been on my roll call for the September 10th sailing on Allure and MORE drama. Yes, it's BIG and right now it's a big ol' 5, but after raking the Antilles, Hispanoila, PR, Cuba etc it should calm down a bit. It's a fast moving storm, not a slow drowning drencher like Harvey so WHY are they canceling 7 day cruises?? If Allure can't disembark passengers on Sunday as scheduled, but could do it on Monday instead, why cancel a cruise ?? Why is everyone in PMS mode ?

 

I'm flying in to FLL on Friday, before the airports close. I'm bringing those battery powered tea lights, battery chargers for our phones, snacks galore and the latest Mitch Rapp book with a battery powered book light. i'm not being cavalier about this hurricane. I went through horrific tornados in WI , lived in Tampa for 7 years and my husband and I were chased from Miami and across Alligator Alley by Andrew. It was a memorable honeymoon that we still talk about 25 years later !

 

Why wouldn't Allure sail on Monday afternoon after the storm has passed ? Am I missing something ?? It sounds like if I am truly being a bit of a cheddar head, you would be the person to point it out. I just figured that it would be better to go a day earlier than to travel on Saturday and have FLL airport close in my face as I layover in Atlanta - thereby stranding us for 1-2 days before the airport opens again in FLL. And if Irma goes up the middle of FL, right up into Atlanta, well then I can spend yet another night in the Atlanta airport.

 

Can you, or can't you, wait out a hurricane - even a category 4 - in a hotel room ? Anybody ?? Real question, definitely not sarcasm, so please don't take it that way. I'm a feisty old broad but not mean !

 

You can wait out a storm anywhere you want, but doesn't mean you will be safe. Why would anyone intentionally go into a Cat 4 or 5 storm is beyond me. And as far as ports reopening, you do realize it's not magic, and as soon as a storm passes it opens? The area needs to be inspected, for several things. Debris in the channel, was the channel compromised, will it need dredging? Not to mention after a catastrophic storm, there will not be electricity or services. Not to mention that personnel will likely have evacuated, and won't be there.

 

My advice? Stay home. Book something else. That hotel room could be used by someone who is under a mandatory evacuation.

[put me on a ship]

Does anyone have an idea of what the impact of Irma will do to future eastern/southern Caribbean sailings? It sounds like the islands will be devasted. I am wondering how long before they will be able to port ships and be able to accept tourists.

 

Do the cruise lines still sail to islands that have not recovered from a hurricane?

 

It really depends on the damage. With that said, these islands make it a priority to open ports. Tourism is key to their economy.

[BecciBoo]

If you saw the news this AM, St. Maarten was heavily damaged. Had lots of pics out of there and that means the USVI will also be hit. I expect Coco Cay will also take a glancing blow on the heavy side of it. And then look out Miami. And on Sunday morning yet.

 

Lets not all hold our breath to see what RCCL will do this weekend! I would at least prepare to have my flight cancelled and just wait it out to see what credit or voucher they hand you.