Cruising outlook as presented to stock analysts by CCL Corp

[Ride-The-Waves]

11 hours ago, npcl said:

Unfortunately the Feds can make recommendations to and advise the states, but they can not dictate to the states when it comes to health policy. They could potential block movement between states, if it is viewed that insufficient local action is being taken.

 

The only real thing that the feds could have done is to provide a consistent set of recommendations.  But it would still be up to the states if they wished to follow them or not.

 

I suspect the primary reason that the cruise lines have not initiated discussions about their plans is because they really do not have a solution at this time. 

Not factual.

 

The federal government abrogated its responsibilities early on by downplaying the dangers of the virus, everything from "it won't effect Americans," to "masks are not useful," to not responding with the needed leadership and resources.  The so-called daily briefings were a joke and political in nature.  Today Dr Fauci is persona non grata in the oval office - POTUS has not talked to him in over a month, and that only because he, Fauci, is making good recommendations.  Yesterday Education Secretary DeVos touted the need to reopen schools  but gave no plan on how to do so.  Reopening in the light of COVID-19 threat will take resources , the Feds have to provide.  And yesterday federal agents acting over and outside the orders of local officials several maimed a person in Oregon using "non-lethal" munitions.  Federal elements/agencies can and do involve themselves in local security operations.

 

Some time ago the CDC sent a list of requirements to CLIA and the cruise lines providing guidelines that need to be followed and established before any sense of cruising can resume from US waters.  The CDC requested CLIA/cruise lines establish the specifics and get back to CDC for concurrence.  So far, nothing from the cruise lines.  Zippo.  Its almost as if cruise lines don't want to participate or have no real idea on how to proceed making ships safe.  

Edited July 13, 2020 by Ride-The-Waves

[AF-1]

Ride - The - Waves;  didn't I read on these threads that Royal and Norwgian are working together with a team from both lines; plus members of CLIA, plus doctors and scientists; so they can answer the CDC's requirements?

[Ride-The-Waves]

7 minutes ago, AF-1 said:

Ride - The - Waves;  didn't I read on these threads that Royal and Norwgian are working together with a team from both lines; plus members of CLIA, plus doctors and scientists; so they can answer the CDC's requirements?

Yes - they are calling it the "Healthy Sail Panel."  No mention as to its relationship to the CDC requirement.  The absence of Carnival, the largest cruise company, is worrisome.

[AF-1]

All we can do is hope they work together and figure it out

[npcl]

4 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Not factual.

 

The federal government abrogated its responsibilities early on by downplaying the dangers of the virus, everything from "it won't effect Americans," to "masks are not useful," to not responding with the needed leadership and resources.  The so-called daily briefings were a joke and political in nature.  Today Dr Fauci is persona non grata in the oval office - POTUS has not talked to him in over a month, and that only because he, Fauci, is making good recommendations.  Yesterday Education Secretary DeVos touted the need to reopen schools  but gave no plan on how to do so.  Reopening in the light of COVID-19 threat will take resources , the Feds have to provide.  And yesterday federal agents acting over and outside the orders of local officials several maimed a person in Oregon using "non-lethal" munitions.  Federal elements/agencies can and do involve themselves in local security operations.

 

Some time ago the CDC sent a list of requirements to CLIA and the cruise lines providing guidelines that need to be followed and established before any sense of cruising can resume from US waters.  The CDC requested CLIA/cruise lines establish the specifics and get back to CDC for concurrence.  So far, nothing from the cruise lines.  Zippo.  Its almost as if cruise lines don't want to participate or have no real idea on how to proceed making ships safe.  

What laws or regulations give the feds the power to dictate medical health care policy to the states? If you are correct in your view what gives them such powers?  The only time they even threatened to direct a states action in NY, they wewre threatened with a law suite and backed off.  The reason why is they cannot direct state policy

 

The CDC can take action at the national boarders or at state lines between the states (the laws that give them that authority are quoted in the do not sail orders) but cannot dictate policy to the states.

 

The FDA can approve products that can be used, but cannot dictate state policy.

 

NIH can control funds, but cannot dictate state policy.

 

What the federal government can do is to make recommendations and to provide funding but it cannot dictate.

 

 

[npcl]

A bit more on this subject from the American Bar Association

 

Two centuries of law guide legal approach to modern pandemic , April 2020

https://www.americanbar.org/news/abanews/publications/youraba/2020/youraba-april-2020/law-guides-legal-approach-to-pandemic/

 

Under the U.S. Constitution’s 10th Amendment and U.S. Supreme Court decisions over nearly 200 years, state governments have the primary authority to control the spread of dangerous diseases within their jurisdictions. The 10th Amendment, which gives states all powers not specifically given to the federal government, allows them the authority to take public health emergency actions, such as setting quarantines and business restrictions.

 

The power to quarantine and take even more stringent measures in the name of public health has belonged largely to the states for nearly 200 years. In 1824, the Supreme Court drew a clear line in Gibbons v. Ogden between the state and federal governments when it came to regulating activities within and between states. In a unanimous ruling, then-Chief Justice John Marshall cited the 10th Amendment in saying that police powers are largely reserved to states for activities within their borders.

 

Those police powers, he explained, include the ability to impose isolation and quarantine conditions. Marshall wrote that quarantine laws “form a portion of that immense mass of legislation which embraces everything within the territory of a state not surrendered to the general government.”

 

While President Donald Trump has played down the need for the federal government to declare national quarantines or isolations, some interpret he has that power under the Commerce Clause, which governs commerce with “foreign nations and among” states. The federal government did not invoke the Commerce Clause during the global 1918–1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic, which killed an estimated 40 million worldwide, including 675,000 Americans.

 

The president could urge other governors across the United States to issue “stay home” orders following the lead of California and New York, which were the first states to issue such directives. But as a Congressional Research Service report explained in 2014 amid the Ebola threat, governors have broad powers to invoke restrictions in their state while the power of the president is significantly more limited by law and Supreme Court precedent.

 

 

The president, for instance, said on March 17 that he discussed “a national lockdown” with advisers to minimize the spread of COVID-19, but three days later he dismissed the idea. While some say such a centralized federal response would be more effective and needed, any executive order to that effect would be unprecedented and would likely lead to a court challenge on constitutional grounds.

 

[npcl]

15 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

And ho

 

Why don't you also tell me how long it took ?  and how are we going here, rush rush rush, how does that usually work out?

Do not have data on each product.  But I can point out advantages that companies face with COVID that will greatly shorten the development time line.

 

1. Regulatory delays - Drug and vaccine development have delays built into the process to allow regulatory authorities time to review information.  The resources of those authorities are split between different projects and it takes time to schedule meetings, discussions, get questions answered.  For example after filing an IND (Investigational new drug application) there is a 30 day delay before the first patients can be treated in phase I.  You did not see that delay in these trials.  There are many other delays in the process.  In the case of COVID vaccines and treatments there are no higher priorities and the agencies have focused resources to reduce the regulatory delays as much as possible.

 

2. Clinical Trial Recruitment - This is often the cause of the greatest amount of delay.  Actually finding patients that meet the criteria and entered into the trial.  On one orphan drug that I was involved with it took  4 years just to get enough patients to run the trial.  The trial itself was only 6 months long (the time a patient had to be on the drug). As a result it took 4.5 years to run that 6 month trial.  With vaccines that time can be very long because 1. The size of the trial depends upon the rate of infection of the disease in a population (A trial for efficacy for the MERS candidate would require a trial size of 100,000 camel herders, the main reason it was never tested) 2. The disease has to be active to run the trial (the reason the SARS vaccine was never tested) 3. Not a lot of people really want to sign up for an untested vaccine. 4. The length of the trial is also impacted by the presence of the disease and the rate of infection.

 

In the case of COVID.  The problems with trial recruitment are not an issue.  The illness is very active in multiple parts of the world.  The infection rate makes the trial size relatively small for a vaccine trial.  Lots of interest from people willing to sign up for the vaccine trials as soon as it opens.  That means that instead of taking years to do the large phase 3 trails, they can be done in months

 

Also note that phase 3 trials are more for efficacy (does it work) than for safety.  While one does get safety information from phase 3 trails, most of the safety work is from phase 1 and phase 2 trials.  The safety data from phase 3 is more finding low incidence events, often coupled with special situations.  It also provides the rate of adverse events in larger populations.

 

 

[mnocket]

6 hours ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Not factual.

 

The federal government abrogated its responsibilities early on by downplaying the dangers of the virus, everything from "it won't effect Americans," to "masks are not useful," to not responding with the needed leadership and resources.  The so-called daily briefings were a joke and political in nature.  Today Dr Fauci is persona non grata in the oval office - POTUS has not talked to him in over a month, and that only because he, Fauci, is making good recommendations.  Yesterday Education Secretary DeVos touted the need to reopen schools  but gave no plan on how to do so.  Reopening in the light of COVID-19 threat will take resources , the Feds have to provide.  And yesterday federal agents acting over and outside the orders of local officials several maimed a person in Oregon using "non-lethal" munitions.  Federal elements/agencies can and do involve themselves in local security operations.

 

Some time ago the CDC sent a list of requirements to CLIA and the cruise lines providing guidelines that need to be followed and established before any sense of cruising can resume from US waters.  The CDC requested CLIA/cruise lines establish the specifics and get back to CDC for concurrence.  So far, nothing from the cruise lines.  Zippo.  Its almost as if cruise lines don't want to participate or have no real idea on how to proceed making ships safe.  

 

🤐   

Deep breath.

I will not get drawn into political discussions -  I will not get drawn into political discussions - I will not get drawn into political discussions - I will not get drawn into political discussions.

Exhale

 

All better now

😊

Edited July 13, 2020 by mnocket

[muffydawg]

On 7/10/2020 at 5:47 PM, paradiselivin1 said:

Hard to anticipate how they're going to successfully launch from Florida for a long time to come if we can't get our number of cases to diminish. FL is the #1 hotspot in the world; especially Miami/Dade...Hanging on by a thread hoping for the best for the 2021 WC leaving FLL in early January but thinking that's just a dream that's going up in smoke..

Port Everglades in Broward County and the Port Authority of Broward County are the entities to watch as it relates to Princess sailings, IMHO.

 

We're now seeing news investigations of the data published by State of Florida.  Local Orlando news investigated fudged(overinflated)  lab test results that falsely inflated positivity rates. 

[cruisequeen4ever]

Thank you, Caribill, for sharing a summary of the info. 

[Grego]

17 hours ago, muffydawg said:

Port Everglades in Broward County and the Port Authority of Broward County are the entities to watch as it relates to Princess sailings, IMHO.

 

We're now seeing news investigations of the data published by State of Florida.  Local Orlando news investigated fudged(overinflated)  lab test results that falsely inflated positivity rates. 

To add to the speculation, we have heard from a number of lab techs and health care workers that everytime a patient who has tested positive for Covid19 and tested later and still found to be positive, that test is added to the count for number of cases.  There have been situations that a patient has been tested a few times until they achieve a negative result and each positive test is added to the number of cases pool.

What isn't reported enough is the real number of deaths that have been the result of the virus, it's percentage to the number of true cases and that the result is lower than other virus deaths.

Let the healthy people work and isolate the sick and those with other comorbidities - hopefully in different locations.

Time to get back to the sea.  #PrincessStrong

 

[oskidunker]

Icu’s in Texas and Arizona are at 95% capacity. End of story. Its getting worse, not better. 

[PrincessLuver]

7 hours ago, oskidunker said:

Icu’s in Texas and Arizona are at 95% capacity. End of story. Its getting worse, not better. 

 

Agree.....it is still amazing the COVID-19 deniers run incredible yarns about how great things are with COVID-19....it is going to be a long time before cruising starts....they just canceled the Rose Bowl Parade and that has not happened in 75 years....somebody knows something.....  #Covidisnojoke

[caribill]

14 hours ago, oskidunker said:

Icu’s in Texas and Arizona are at 95% capacity. End of story. Its getting worse, not better. 

 

Yes, it is getting worse and not better, but in Texas, at least, a good percentage of the occupied ICU beds are occupied by non-Covid-19 patients.

[Grego]

2 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Yes, it is getting worse and not better, but in Texas, at least, a good percentage of the occupied ICU beds are occupied by non-Covid-19 patients.

Thank you.  It is still amazing how folks will take a piece of the real story that fits their narrative and spin it up.  It will be interesting to finally hear down the road that this virus is not as deadly as it has been made out to be, but we have made it so.

Everyone get out and enjoy the sunshine, take plenty of vitamin C and D along with Zinc and make it your life to live.

[hm9912]

On 7/10/2020 at 5:47 PM, paradiselivin1 said:

Hard to anticipate how they're going to successfully launch from Florida for a long time to come if we can't get our number of cases to diminish. FL is the #1 hotspot in the world; especially Miami/Dade...Hanging on by a thread hoping for the best for the 2021 WC leaving FLL in early January but thinking that's just a dream that's going up in smoke..

Agree! Although we currently have FCC deposits on three cruises in 2021 based on what currently is going on I doubt we will sail on any of them. I think 2022 is a more realistic possibility?

Howard

[LDVinNC]

5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Yes, it is getting worse and not better, but in Texas, at least, a good percentage of the occupied ICU beds are occupied by non-Covid-19 patients.

 

So, the beds occupied by COVID patients are not available for "routine" critical illnesses - heart attacks, strokes, etc.  How can this be a good thing?

[PrincessLuver]

2 hours ago, Grego said:

Thank you.  It is still amazing how folks will take a piece of the real story that fits their narrative and spin it up.  It will be interesting to finally hear down the road that this virus is not as deadly as it has been made out to be, but we have made it so.

Everyone get out and enjoy the sunshine, take plenty of vitamin C and D along with Zinc and make it your life to live.

 

What Kool-Aide are you drinking?  By November the projected deaths in the US are going to be over 215,000.  Talk about a spin cycle!  You forgot to mention in telling everyone to get out and enjoy life to Wear A Mask, Social Distance, Wash Their Hands and Avoid Touching Their Faces and Avoid Large Groups such as cruising.

#Livin' La Vida Loca

Edited July 16, 2020 by PrincessLuver

[CalLuvsCrusingToo]

Agree with PrincessLuver 

Don't want to get political, but we are hearing first hand.

From family members who are Frontline ER Doctors (and a couple nurses).

They will tell you Covid IS Taking up large amounts of beds, and Staff, that CAN'T be used for other procedures.

My DIL is a Cardiologist.  She is NOT being used as a cardiologist because of having to Help handle overflowing Covid caseloads. 😒

 

 

Edited July 16, 2020 by CalLuvsCrusingToo

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, CalLuvsCrusingToo said:

Agree with PrincessLuver 

Don't want to get political, but we are hearing first hand.

From family members who are Frontline ER Doctors (and a couple nurses).

They will tell you Covid IS Taking up large amounts of beds, and Staff, that CAN'T be used for other procedures.

My DIL is a Cardiologist.  She is NOT being used as a cardiologist because of having to Help handle overflowing Covid caseloads. 😒

 

 

And how many preventable future deaths are going to occur because of how this is effecting the care the medical profession can give to non Covid patients?

[pris993]

On 7/15/2020 at 9:22 AM, oskidunker said:

Icu’s in Texas and Arizona are at 95% capacity. End of story. Its getting worse, not better. 

you have to believe the statistics.  

 

When the US State Dept Travel Advisories recommend travel then I may consider cruising or even flying to a port.   Too much is being made of daily number on Covid to plan any travel for me til late 2021, more likely 2022.

 

[Roberto256]

7 hours ago, Grego said:

Thank you.  It is still amazing how folks will take a piece of the real story that fits their narrative and spin it up.  It will be interesting to finally hear down the road that this virus is not as deadly as it has been made out to be, but we have made it so.

 

Florida just set a 1-day coronavirus death record.

 

Clearly, there is way too much testing in Florida. 

[caribill]

5 hours ago, LDVinNC said:

 

So, the beds occupied by COVID patients are not available for "routine" critical illnesses - heart attacks, strokes, etc.  How can this be a good thing?

 

Did not say it was.

[AncientMariner48]

2.5 billion dollars in deposits and they can't pay me for my May 2020 cancelled cruise.  They cannot tell me when of if I will get money back for the paid cruise, deposits, and trip insurance.  I hate Princess.

[drsel]

2.5 billion dollars in deposits and they can't pay me for my May 2020 cancelled cruise.  They cannot tell me when of if I will get money back for the paid cruise, deposits, and trip insurance.  I hate Princess.

Don't worry, I gave them fresh money for 3 new Cruises.
I hope they give it to you