No US Sailing Until at least Oct 1

[chengkp75]

I hate when a publication like the NYPost puts up a headline like that, which is blatantly incorrect.  As noted in post #16 above, the CDC is not banning cruises, they are extending the time when cruise lines must meet covid response plans and requirements. Any cruise line whose plan meets these requirements, like BPCL, can resume cruising as far as the CDC is concerned (there may be local regulations barring it).

[Gershep]

I wonder if the CDC will extend the date again.

[chengkp75]

1 minute ago, Gershep said:

I wonder if the CDC will extend the date again.

That will depend on how the country controls the virus, and how well the cruise lines comply with their covid response plans.

[hamrag]

3 hours ago, Laszlo said:

 

Poor old guy keeps getting suckered in Lol

He's been very quiet, of late!

[RocketMan275]

6 hours ago, JustAPilot said:

Let's keep the party going, or not.. But keep listening to NCL's marketing department on how they will keep you safe, not. 

"The current scientific evidence suggests that cruise ships pose a greater risk of COVID-19 transmission than other settings. A recent article published in the Journal of Travel Medicine by Rocklöv et al. demonstrated that the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an onboard R0 (basic reproduction rate) for COVID-19 of 14.8 before ship-wide quarantine was enacted. This means that each case onboard the Diamond Princess transmitted COVID-19 to approximately 15 other people. This reproduction rate is approximately four times higher than the R0 of the original epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China,..."
 

I rather doubt that R0 number of 15.  Suppose there is one person who infects 15 people.  Those 15 would also infect 15.  That would be 225 infected.  Those 225 infect 15 more each and that's 3375 infected which is more than were on the ship.  

[cksv]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

I rather doubt that R0 number of 15.  Suppose there is one person who infects 15 people.  Those 15 would also infect 15.  That would be 225 infected.  Those 225 infect 15 more each and that's 3375 infected which is more than were on the ship.  

 

Yeah according to the report:

"Cumulative CDC data from the period of March 1 to July 10, 2020 reveal a total of 2,973 COVID-19 or COVID-like illness cases on cruise ships, in addition to 34 deaths. These data have also revealed a total of 99 outbreaks on 123 different cruise ships, meaning that 80% of ships within U.S. jurisdiction were affected by COVID-19 during this time frame. In addition, 9 ships still have ongoing or resolving COVID-19 outbreaks on board."

 

So 2,973 cases / 123 ships = 24 cases on average per ship? That doesn't sound all that bad to me.

Edited July 17, 2020 by cksv

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

I rather doubt that R0 number of 15.  Suppose there is one person who infects 15 people.  Those 15 would also infect 15.  That would be 225 infected.  Those 225 infect 15 more each and that's 3375 infected which is more than were on the ship.  

You're ignoring the last part of the statement, which is very important: "before ship-wide quarantine was enacted."  It was only two days between when the first passenger, who had disembarked in Hong Kong on February 1, tested positive for COVID-19 and the imposition of quarantine on Feb. 3 upon arrival in Japan. 

[vpearlkc]

The cruise lines are still trying to get their crews home from when the pandemic started. How on earth would they ever gather enough people to man the ships with this mess still raging out of control?

[beerman2]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

That will depend on how the country controls the virus, and how well the cruise lines comply with their covid response plans.

And right now Fla. isn't showing much hope. Nor is Texas and Cali! 3 major cruise ports.

 

That doesn't leave much left .

[hamrag]

7 hours ago, beerman2 said:

And right now Fla. isn't showing much hope. Nor is Texas and Cali! 3 major cruise ports.

 

That doesn't leave much left .

 

Certainly not in the US of A.....but the cruising world extends waaaaay beyond that particular mass of land!

Edited July 18, 2020 by hamrag

[beerman2]

2 hours ago, hamrag said:

 

Certainly not in the US of A.....but the cruising world extends waaaaay beyond that particular mass of land!

2019

US 14.13 Mil pax

Europe 6.35 Mil pax

All others 4.84 Mil pax

 

The Majority is from US and why many topics are geared towards what happens here. 

[hamrag]

17 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

2019

US 14.13 Mil pax

Europe 6.35 Mil pax

All others 4.84 Mil pax

 

The Majority is from US and why many topics are geared towards what happens here. 

 

OK, I will assume those numbers are accurate, but you miss the point....the relevant question is where do these passengers cruise, and the answer often is waaaaay beyond USA waters! 😉

 

We are extensively travelled, 47 cruises worldwide, and we have met countless North Americans in areas such as:

 

Black Sea

Baltic Sea

Norwegian Fjords

Iceland

Panama Canal

Canary Islands

Iberia

West Mediterranean

East Mediterranean

Morocco

Tunisia

Cyprus

Pacific Mexico

 

The list goes on, and a more interesting stat would be where are the most populous areas that cruisers visit. The answer might be the USofA, but I doubt that to be the case.

[beerman2]

29 minutes ago, hamrag said:

 

OK, I will assume those numbers are accurate, but you miss the point....the relevant question is where do these passengers cruise, and the answer often is waaaaay beyond USA waters! 😉

 

We are extensively travelled, 47 cruises worldwide, and we have met countless North Americans in areas such as:

 

Black Sea

Baltic Sea

Norwegian Fjords

Iceland

Panama Canal

Canary Islands

Iberia

West Mediterranean

East Mediterranean

Morocco

Tunisia

Cyprus

Pacific Mexico

 

The list goes on, and a more interesting stat would be where are the most populous areas that cruisers visit. The answer might be the USofA, but I doubt that to be the case.

No assuming needed google was my friend for the numbers.

[RocketMan275]

12 hours ago, njhorseman said:

You're ignoring the last part of the statement, which is very important: "before ship-wide quarantine was enacted."  It was only two days between when the first passenger, who had disembarked in Hong Kong on February 1, tested positive for COVID-19 and the imposition of quarantine on Feb. 3 upon arrival in Japan. 

So,  you're saying the report of a RO of around 15 is a meaningless and hyperbolic exaggeration?

[njhorseman]

7 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

So,  you're saying the report of a RO of around 15 is a meaningless and hyperbolic exaggeration?

No, I'm not saying that at all. It's meaningful statistic to demonstrate how quickly COVID-19 can spread in a very high population density environment when no steps to mitigate the spread are taken.

[pmd98052]

14 hours ago, cksv said:

So 2,973 cases / 123 ships = 24 cases on average per ship? That doesn't sound all that bad to me.

 

Errr South Korea and China have re-shut down entire cities for 25-80 new cases!  Because of the high R0 that COVID has. 24 cases on a cruise ship would spread like wildfire.

Edited July 18, 2020 by pmd98052

[RocketMan275]

4 hours ago, njhorseman said:

No, I'm not saying that at all. It's meaningful statistic to demonstrate how quickly COVID-19 can spread in a very high population density environment when no steps to mitigate the spread are taken.

One cannot sustain an RO of 15 in any finite population.  After only a few iterations, there's no one left to infect and the RO falls to zero.

[njhorseman]

32 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

One cannot sustain an RO of 15 in any finite population.  After only a few iterations, there's no one left to infect and the RO falls to zero.

I'm  a mathematician and retired actuary. I don't need your arithmetic lesson.

I never said that reproduction rate was sustainable in such a small population. I said it did occur over a two day period and for that limited purpose it demonstrates how fast the infection can spread. 

[travelhound]

On 7/16/2020 at 4:46 PM, Georgia_Peaches said:

You don't know that...Anything can happen.  If you are so certain, then I can only assume you are not booked in 2020.  However, some people are so let's not rain on their parade.  I, for one am encouraged that the CDC didn't extend for an additional 100 days, which they could have done quite easily.

Yup, the whole industry is now set for an October start.  This may provide a little more consistency throughout the industry.  

[njhorseman]

9 minutes ago, travelhound said:

Yup, the whole industry is now set for an October start.  This may provide a little more consistency throughout the industry.  

If you try to book an October NCL cruise you'll find that you can't. The cruises still appear on the website but when you try to actually book a cabin they're listed as sold out. In a day or two NCL will undoubtedly make a formal announcement that all October cruises have been canceled.

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, travelhound said:

Yup, the whole industry is now set for an October start.  This may provide a little more consistency throughout the industry.  

The consistency will be they will all cancel October some time in August.

[Georgia_Peaches]

On 7/17/2020 at 12:01 PM, zqvol said:

Keep right on believing that you will cruise in 2020, but the evidence points to no cruising the rest of this year, and probably not until late summer or early fall of 2021 as the earliest start date (and that may be wishful).

What I believe is irreverent and speculative... I don't have a cruise booked in 2020.  My point was that one person's speculation does not make it fact Even. If. They. Write. It. Like. This. 

Could that opinion turn out to be accurate?  Time will tell...Could you be right in your timeline?  Again, time will tell.  But if someone wants to think that their booked cruise has a chance of sailing in 2020, it hurts absolutely nobody!  Who am I or anybody else to dash their hopes?

Edited July 19, 2020 by Georgia_Peaches

[Diver2014]

18 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

What I believe is irreverent and speculative... I don't have a cruise booked in 2020.  My point was that one person's speculation does not make it fact Even. If. They. Write. It. Like. This. 

Could that opinion turn out to be accurate?  Time will tell...Could you be right in your timeline?  Again, time will tell.  But if someone wants to think that their booked cruise has a chance of sailing in 2020, it hurts absolutely nobody!  Who am I or anybody else to dash their hopes?

 

Thank you for saying that!  My thoughts exactly!  I'm STILL planning on my November cruise, regardless of what anyone says on these boards, which is all speculation and opinion. 

[jaja]

1 hour ago, Diver2014 said:

 

Thank you for saying that!  My thoughts exactly!  I'm STILL planning on my November cruise, regardless of what anyone says on these boards, which is all speculation and opinion. 

I really do wish you well !  And though I cancelled my November cruise to be on the safe side....I hope things go well for you. 

[luv2kroooz]

1 hour ago, Diver2014 said:

 

Thank you for saying that!  My thoughts exactly!  I'm STILL planning on my November cruise, regardless of what anyone says on these boards, which is all speculation and opinion. 

Don't let anyone stand in your way. Plan away!! Informed speculation and educated opinions can be valuable to other members, though. I don't believe your cruise has a chance of sailing, but you and Peaches certainly keep planning as if you are sailing in November.