When will the next shutdown extension be announced?

[Selbourne]

2 hours ago, Trevor33 said:

How soon to you expect to be taking a cruise ?  I understand that the Red Funnel Ferry across to the Isle of Wight is still running a restricted service under Government guidelines . 

Yes, the Isle of Wight Ferries are indeed still running (except the Yarmouth / Lymington route) as otherwise the Isle of Wight would be completely cut off, so it constitutes essential travel. Also, with the very small number of passengers compared to usual, it is possible to maintain social distancing and on some ships the maritime regulations have  been relaxed enabling passengers to remain in their vehicles for the crossing (which is usually forbidden). 
 

A cruise ship is obviously an entirely different proposition. It’s non-essential travel and impossible to maintain social distancing without confinement to cabins, due to corridor widths, shared dining tables and venues such as theatres. So until the crisis is over or we are all vaccinated, I simply cannot see any cruise ship going anywhere. 

[Snow Hill]

The Oceana appears to be out on a Sunday afternoon sail in the Channel. 

[upwarduk]

On 4/12/2020 at 12:17 PM, cruisenewbie1976 said:

Which ones?

Princess cancelled until 10 May.

Royal Caribbean cancelled until 12 May.

Norwegian cancelled until 15 May.

 

Royal Caribbean ( which includes Celebrity) extended their no sail date to June 12 th yesterday (16/04/20).

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by upwarduk

[glittergal1]

I wish P&O will hurry up and cancel the next lot after May 15th to put us out of our misery 

[Roger88]

I think it will be announced closer to the end of April. Europe has many celebrations at that time and I think they will have to make some adjustments. Even though all the celebrations will be cancelled its not like they will be limited on providing some sort of entertainment. In any case, I expect this announcement to happen very soon 

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, glittergal1 said:

I wish P&O will hurry up and cancel the next lot after May 15th to put us out of our misery 

It is frustrating, especially when it is blatantly obvious that no cruises will be going anywhere for months, but it’s all about cash flow and workload, hence the release of cancellations in blocks every month or so. I don’t anticipate that pattern changing, nor the excessive delays in actually obtaining your refund once the cruise is officially cancelled. 

[Snow Hill]

1 hour ago, glittergal1 said:

I wish P&O will hurry up and cancel the next lot after May 15th to put us out of our misery 

We had our 2 week cruise on Oceana out of Malta on 7 May cancelled, they also cancelled our 1 week cruise on 21 May on Oceana, say Oceana wouldn’t be in position by then. 
 

I suspect given announcements by other lines cancelling cruises into June, that there will be an announcement from P&O in next few days.

 

As far as Med is concerned until ports reopen to cruise ships there will be no cruises and probably the ports in Spain & Italy will be closed for some months yet and when they open they will dictate the terms on size and numbers of ships in order to protect their health services. 

[safathome]

From "Cruise trade news"

In terms of P&O Cruises’ pause in operations, which has been further extended until 15 May, Ludlow said that he hopes to give customers another update by the end of the month.

[PRINCESSTHE BEST]

They can't afford to cancel cruises in excess of 90 days before sail. They would have to refund deposits and have no cash flow. Their plan is clear, get as many guests as possible to pay the final balance then when the cruise is cancelled try to cajole as many as possible to accept FCC. That way they get to keep the cash and use the end result as a media positive. By that i mean, Carnival CEO recently said that despite the devastating coronavirus outbreak,cruise bookings for 2021 are strong', i wonder why????

Edited April 17, 2020 by PRINCESSTHE BEST

[molecrochip]

It’s not cash flow. The cash is there whether they refund tomorrow or July. The issue is workload. A refund such as this is typically a high risk financial transaction as far as financial processes go.

 

Typically, a company like Carnival will have four people involved. One person at contact centre level to process the cancellation, a second person to approve the transaction. Then it goes to the accounts team. One person will prepare the refund then a second will approve it.

 

This is complicated even more by staff self isolating and the rest of the team working from home.

 

Converting a booking to FCC is likely to be a two person process, one to process and one to approve. Cash isnt leaving building so risk of fraud is less.

[Selbourne]

6 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

It’s not cash flow. The cash is there whether they refund tomorrow or July. The issue is workload. A refund such as this is typically a high risk financial transaction as far as financial processes go.

 

Typically, a company like Carnival will have four people involved. One person at contact centre level to process the cancellation, a second person to approve the transaction. Then it goes to the accounts team. One person will prepare the refund then a second will approve it.

 

This is complicated even more by staff self isolating and the rest of the team working from home.

 

Converting a booking to FCC is likely to be a two person process, one to process and one to approve. Cash isnt leaving building so risk of fraud is less.

Yes there is additional workload, but cash flow is the primary concern of any business, especially one faced with the challenges that P&O are. Cash flow is the major reason that travel companies are trying to delay refunds, convert them to credit notes or, in the case of P&O, both. ABTA have themselves confirmed that the biggest threat facing travel companies at present is cash flow!

[Britboys]

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22797-donald-carnival-prepared-for-worst-case-scenario.html?fbclid=IwAR0GqN9kQRnzDGmuxSVaqQklzHFL5AvkLCaXiO-33K8Fa6tABf9kb7kM6vs

 

Really doesn't say anything but an interesting little snippet all the same...

 

 

[otbc]

Without wanting to be all suspicious, I'm expecting P&O will announce the next raft of cancellations in the next couple of days.

 

Happy to be proven wrong, but the cruise for next May I was looking at, the cost of a Suite has just today shot up by £400 despite them having exactly the same suites available to pick today as they had yesterday...it'd be really, really disappointing if they're upping next year's prices in advance of announcing cancellations but when the price is completely static for a fortnight and then suddenly jumps despite no more suite cabins being sold I'm starting to wonder...

[PRINCESSTHE BEST]

39 minutes ago, otbc said:

Without wanting to be all suspicious, I'm expecting P&O will announce the next raft of cancellations in the next couple of days.

 

Happy to be proven wrong, but the cruise for next May I was looking at, the cost of a Suite has just today shot up by £400 despite them having exactly the same suites available to pick today as they had yesterday...it'd be really, really disappointing if they're upping next year's prices in advance of announcing cancellations but when the price is completely static for a fortnight and then suddenly jumps despite no more suite cabins being sold I'm starting to wonder...

Just checked my booked cruises in 2021. I have paid £6,000 it's now £8,500, another one has gone from £3,500 to £7,200.

[majortom10]

13 minutes ago, PRINCESSTHE BEST said:

Just checked my booked cruises in 2021. I have paid £6,000 it's now £8,500, another one has gone from £3,500 to £7,200.

Puts a dampener on people thinking P&O are giving them a bonus by offering 125% FCC. Cash is king and go for a 100% refund.

Edited April 22, 2020 by majortom10

[otbc]

It's an absolute disgrace if they're genuinely putting prices up before announcing the next raft of cancellations. 

 

I'd understand if prices had gone up because they'd sold a few more suites etc, but that's not the case in the cruises I've been looking at.

 

Really, really disappointed as we were booked on a Sup. Deluxe Balcony cabin for our cruise next month and I was then looking at taking the FCC for a cruise next year to book a suite with as it's for our honeymoon. After the price rises today, the 125% wouldn't get us the same cabin, let alone a suite. Not good.

[wowzz]

I see the Chief Medical Officer today said that social distancing would need to be kept in place  for at least the rest of this year. So, basically that's cruising out for 2020  (and probably the death knell for thousands of pubs, restaurants and cafes  as well)

IMHO I can't see cruising in large ships going ahead next year either.  Taking a FCC, which has no intrinsic value, for a cruise that will probably not go ahead, is a high risk strategy. Just ask for a cash refund, and stick the money under your mattress in the hope that, one day,  we can go to the sea side again. Cruising, as we know it, is over for at least two years.

[daiB]

It's an absolute disgrace if they're genuinely putting prices up before announcing the next raft of cancellations. 
 
I'd understand if prices had gone up because they'd sold a few more suites etc, but that's not the case in the cruises I've been looking at.
 
Really, really disappointed as we were booked on a Sup. Deluxe Balcony cabin for our cruise next month and I was then looking at taking the FCC for a cruise next year to book a suite with as it's for our honeymoon. After the price rises today, the 125% wouldn't get us the same cabin, let alone a suite. Not good.

As ever prices are controlled by a computer algorithm. More bookings induce a price increase. With thousands of people transferring to 2021 it is not surprising at all that bookings are well up and way above what the program expects and therefore the prices go up. It is just simple supply and demand.

Assuming that the cruise lines actually survive all of this I would fully expect that most 2021 cruises will be over subscribed.

In the long run cruise lines have to survive but will not do this by pricing themselves out of the market.


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[mercury7289]

12 minutes ago, daiB said:

As ever prices are controlled by a computer algorithm. More bookings induce a price increase. With thousands of people transferring to 2021 it is not surprising at all that bookings are well up and way above what the program expects and therefore the prices go up. It is just simple supply and demand.

Assuming that the cruise lines actually survive all of this I would fully expect that most 2021 cruises will be over subscribed.

In the long run cruise lines have to survive but will not do this by pricing themselves out of the market.


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DaiB

Being oversubscribed assumes that those booked for 2021 are not the same as those booked for 2020.

I would have thought generally same pool of people. But will be, less, those that can not get insurance, and those who have decided not to, also those who will not cruise until a vaccine or drug becomes available. Of coarse there will be some new cruises may be.We will see.

[daiB]

1 hour ago, mercury7289 said:

DaiB

Being oversubscribed assumes that those booked for 2021 are not the same as those booked for 2020.

I would have thought generally same pool of people. But will be, less, those that can not get insurance, and those who have decided not to, also those who will not cruise until a vaccine or drug becomes available. Of coarse there will be some new cruises may be.We will see.

I am not saying that they will actually cruise only they are booking now. On top of those already booked.

[Captain_Morgan]

7 hours ago, wowzz said:

I see the Chief Medical Officer today said that social distancing would need to be kept in place  for at least the rest of this year. So, basically that's cruising out for 2020  (and probably the death knell for thousands of pubs, restaurants and cafes  as well)

which Chief Medical Officer?  Carnival Corp? P&O? UK?  Link for reference?

 

as for the mention of prices being higher for future cruises I don’t think it should come as any surprise given the number of future cruise credits being handed out.  It should go without saying that if they’re handing out credits valuing on average 25% on top of what was paid that any future cruises will cost at least that much more.  

[wowzz]

19 minutes ago, Captain_Morgan said:

which Chief Medical Officer?  Carnival Corp? P&O? UK?  Link for reference?

 

as for the mention of prices being higher for future cruises I don’t think it should come as any surprise given the number of future cruise credits being handed out.  It should go without saying that if they’re handing out credits valuing on average 25% on top of what was paid that any future cruises will cost at least that much more.  

BBC News - Coronavirus: Social restrictions 'to remain for rest of year'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52389285

[Selbourne]

9 hours ago, wowzz said:

I see the Chief Medical Officer today said that social distancing would need to be kept in place  for at least the rest of this year. So, basically that's cruising out for 2020  (and probably the death knell for thousands of pubs, restaurants and cafes  as well)

IMHO I can't see cruising in large ships going ahead next year either.  Taking a FCC, which has no intrinsic value, for a cruise that will probably not go ahead, is a high risk strategy. Just ask for a cash refund, and stick the money under your mattress in the hope that, one day,  we can go to the sea side again. Cruising, as we know it, is over for at least two years.

Sobering thought isn’t it. I would struggle to hazard a guess as to when I think cruises will start again, but all I know is that it will be one of the very last things to return to normal, as it is completely impossible to maintain any form of social distancing whatsoever on a cruise ship. There has been some speculation that cruise ships may recommence at some stage with reduced passenger numbers but, in addition to it being unprofitable to do so, you cannot avoid passing other passengers and crew in very narrow corridors. Add to that the fact that cruise ships are now seen as Petri dishes for the spread of viruses and it doesn’t look good at all.
 

The longer this goes on the harder I think it will be to recommence cruising and the longer the residual impacts will last. Many of the experienced staff will have been forced to find jobs in other sectors. Yes, others will join, but will be inexperienced in comparison. With the ships not being used, mechanical and maintenance issues will arise and refits will become overdue, yet shipyards will most likely have issues returning to normal operations themselves and will have backlogs when they do, so it’s not as if the period of suspension can result in other things being done. Above all, the longer it goes on the greater the chances of cruise company failures.

 

A few weeks ago if asked to guess when cruising would recommence I would have said autumn this year, but I certainly wouldn’t put money on that now. It will be a brave operator who is the first to recommence sailings and it will take even braver passengers to want to go on them! Just as the biggest concern with lifting the lockdown early is the fear of a second peak, the biggest fear for cruise ship operators (other than whether they can survive) will be an operator going too early, having a virus outbreak on board and causing a second wave of adverse PR. 

[Eddie99]

In a nutshell

 

I think we older cruisers should quite possibly abandon thoughts of resuming our favourite holiday, ever..This will get sorted, one way or another, in time but all that time we are getting older, more vulnerable, possibly less mobile, possibly troubled by other medical conditions 

 

That’s without even mentioning the problems of health/travel insurance

 

It was nice while it lasted.  I’m so glad we did what we did when we did

[AndyMichelle]

7 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

Sobering thought isn’t it. I would struggle to hazard a guess as to when I think cruises will start again, but all I know is that it will be one of the very last things to return to normal, as it is completely impossible to maintain any form of social distancing whatsoever on a cruise ship. There has been some speculation that cruise ships may recommence at some stage with reduced passenger numbers but, in addition to it being unprofitable to do so, you cannot avoid passing other passengers and crew in very narrow corridors. Add to that the fact that cruise ships are now seen as Petri dishes for the spread of viruses and it doesn’t look good at all.
 

The longer this goes on the harder I think it will be to recommence cruising and the longer the residual impacts will last. Many of the experienced staff will have been forced to find jobs in other sectors. Yes, others will join, but will be inexperienced in comparison. With the ships not being used, mechanical and maintenance issues will arise and refits will become overdue, yet shipyards will most likely have issues returning to normal operations themselves and will have backlogs when they do, so it’s not as if the period of suspension can result in other things being done. Above all, the longer it goes on the greater the chances of cruise company failures.

 

A few weeks ago if asked to guess when cruising would recommence I would have said autumn this year, but I certainly wouldn’t put money on that now. It will be a brave operator who is the first to recommence sailings and it will take even braver passengers to want to go on them! Just as the biggest concern with lifting the lockdown early is the fear of a second peak, the biggest fear for cruise ship operators (other than whether they can survive) will be an operator going too early, having a virus outbreak on board and causing a second wave of adverse PR. 

Good points Selborne. 

Someone will have to be the first to take the plunge and, despite the risks, someone will do it as soon as realistically possible. 

MSC are already talking about getting operations ready to go in China. 

A massive risk, could be make or break, but if they are likely to break anyway.. 

Now B&Q are open, every other retailer wants to do the same, the cruise companies will be no different. 

I know the cruise industry is almost impossible to social distance, but with adequate screening at boarding, things may be different, although we are probably a way off that yet. 

Imagine we got to a stage where they could guarantee nobody onboard, crew or passengers had the virus, it would be the safest place to be. (dreaming, I know)... 

Insurance issues will get resolved because they have to. 

It's a massive risk, but when one jumps.. 

Andy 

 

Footnote.. I won't be going anywhere near a cruise ship until you lot have tried it... 😊