Will vaccines now be required?

[nocl]

3 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

That's kind of a non-sequitur.  There's lots of confounding factors in that first paper you linked.  What exactly are they measuring. Maybe the flu's that get through the vaccine are different than the other flus.  In any event, it's best to just look at the end point effect:

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2399-4

 

Read the introduction.  Lots of evidence that subpopulation vaccinated prevents illness in other populations.

 

Honestly, an NNT of 71 is not really uncommon.  NNT of 29 is pretty good.  And you have to realize that a good part of the drive to vaccinate healthy adults, is to prevent transmission and serious illness in elderly and children.  As you can see from the paper above, having more healthy adults vaccinated will help prevent transmission to unvaccinated at risk populations.

 

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004879.pub5/full?

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004876.pub4/full?

 

NNT for elderly is more like 40, NNT for children is 7.

 

You also are not understanding the 50-60% effectiveness.  Truth is, I don't think anyone truly knows how effective the flu vaccine is at preventing a specific strain of flu.  It might be perfect, it might be bad, but it also seems to prevent closely related strains of flu as well, so it has greater effect than just what it prevents again.

 

The effectiveness measures "if we vaccinated you against 3-4 strains of flu, what is the chance you will get infected by any influenza this season".  That's the 40-60% effectiveness.  No one knows exactly how well it does against the particular epitopes.  For all we know it could be 95%.

I seem to recall that there have been studies where they have looked at the exact strains of the flu compared to the included strains in the vaccination. If I recall correctly they were not controlled trials, but samples taken from the general population.  

 

Unfortunately I have not been able to find any of those papers.  I will keep looking.

[nocl]

42 minutes ago, nocl said:

I seem to recall that there have been studies where they have looked at the exact strains of the flu compared to the included strains in the vaccination. If I recall correctly they were not controlled trials, but samples taken from the general population.  

 

Unfortunately I have not been able to find any of those papers.  I will keep looking.

Here is a paper that references a number of studies that looked at the impact of influenza vaccines on both matched and unmatched strains. (matched means the infection matched a antigens in the vaccine)

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153

 

It links to dozens of studies.

[emmas gran]

This is for the topic "Will Vaccines be Required"  it is for us on this board to talk about --not people who have just come along for the argument and you know who you are !! We don't want your wasteful talk and stats re flu TB etc we want a Covid 19 vaccine end of story. If you don't want the vaccine that is up to you , please keep to the subject Covid vaccine

Edited December 5, 2020 by emmas gran

[nomad098]

3 hours ago, emmas gran said:

This is for the topic "Will Vaccines be Required"  it is for us on this board to talk about --not people who have just come along for the argument and you know who you are !! We don't want your wasteful talk and stats re flu TB etc we want a Covid 19 vaccine end of story. If you don't want the vaccine that is up to you , please keep to the subject Covid vaccine

 

" Will vaccines be required " in my opinion the answer would be no at least for this coming year 2021 and possible moving forward.

There are a whole host of reasons both known and unknown why I think no is the answer even if there was a 100% take up in the vaccine availability.

Both those that are pro and anti vaccine use respiratory diseases to compare covid-19 to because there is nothing else.

I consider myself pro vaccination but I also understand the limitations of vaccinations, vaccination development, vaccination production and Governments

[nomad098]

6 hours ago, nocl said:

Here is a paper that references a number of studies that looked at the impact of influenza vaccines on both matched and unmatched strains. (matched means the infection matched a antigens in the vaccine)

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153

 

It links to dozens of studies.

 

I have to agree with "unoriginalname"

 

However this is extremely interesting thankyou

 

 

[yorky]

A lot of overthinking on here. Why don’t we all just show a bit of trust in the experts that have developed the vaccines and the authorities that are authorising it rather than other anonymous individuals on an Internet cruise forum.  If you want to get it get it, if you don’t don’t. Personally if I refused it, contracted the virus, then passed it on to a family member who dies I could not live with myself. Maybe that would not be an issue for some but it’s their choice. Given we will both be getting the vaccine as soon as it’s available I’m not bothered what the cruise lines decide to do, whatever the decision we’re going to be good to go.

Edited December 5, 2020 by yorky

[ipeeinthepool]

50 minutes ago, yorky said:

Given we will both be getting the vaccine as soon as it’s available I’m not bothered what the cruise lines decide to do, whatever the decision we’re going to be good to go.

 

I think there is a very real possibility that an unvaccinated person will affect your cruise.  If someone contracts Covid while onboard your itinerary could be modified or shortened and onboard activities curtailed due to unvaccinated people.  Sometime in the middle of next year vaccines will be widely available an I would hope cruise lines will require the vaccine so that the cruises can operate as planned and so the unvaccinated people don't spread the virus to the people in the ports visited by the ship.

 

People can choose not to get vaccinated and cruise lines should keep those people off their ships.

[nomad098]

33 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

People can choose not to get vaccinated and cruise lines should keep those people off their ships.

 

I can only speak to what the UK Government have said

But based on your quote

 

No under 18's

No pregnant women, women who think they may be pregnant or planning pregnancy in the 3 months after first dose of the vaccine.

No people with certain medical conditions

No decision made in the UK whether under 50's without a health condition will get the vaccine, you may be able to purchase a vaccine but not until all at risk groups are vaccinated and doses allocated to COVAX

 

That's a lot of people from the UK unable to cruise in the near to mid future

 

From what I have read from the UK government and people have posted on here from the CDC and local states cruise ship employees from developing nations will probably be very far down the list for vaccination. How long can cruise lines wait?

 

I'm not saying your wrong but a lot of scientific questions need answering, the roll out of the vaccine will take time and Governments need to make agreements before cruise lines can institute a vaccine policy that works. 

 

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-03/covid-can-pregnant-and-immunocompromised-people-get-the-pfizer-vaccine-who-cant-get-the-jab-and-why

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54902909#:~:text=No decision has been made,who are at most risk.

 

[Ride-The-Waves]

This link provides the legal basis for vaccination in the US.  It's worth a read:

 

https://www.idsociety.org/globalassets/idsa/policy--advocacy/mandatory-vaccinations-precedent-and-current-laws-031011.pdf

 

Historically, the preservation of the public health has been the primary responsibility of state and local governments, and the authority to enact laws relevant to the protection of the public health derives from the state’s general police powers. With regard to communicable disease outbreaks, these powers may include the enactment of mandatory vaccination laws. This report provides an overview of the legal precedent for mandatory vaccination laws, and of state laws that require certain individuals or populations, including school-aged children and health care workers, to be vaccinated against various communicable diseases. Also discussed are state laws providing for mandatory vaccinations during a public health emergency or outbreak of a communicable disease.

 

Federal jurisdiction over public health matters derives from the Commerce Clause of the United States Constitution, which states that Congress shall have the power “[t]o regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States ... ” Congress has enacted requirements regarding vaccination of immigrants seeking entry into the United States, and military regulations require American troops to be immunized against a number of diseases. The Secretary of Health and Human Services has authority under the Public Health Service Act to issue regulations necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the states or from state to state. Current federal regulations do not include any mandatory vaccination programs; rather, when compulsory measures are needed, measures such as quarantine and isolation are generally utilized to halt the spread of communicable diseases.

[TeeRick]

6 hours ago, emmas gran said:

This is for the topic "Will Vaccines be Required"  it is for us on this board to talk about --not people who have just come along for the argument and you know who you are !! We don't want your wasteful talk and stats re flu TB etc we want a Covid 19 vaccine end of story. If you don't want the vaccine that is up to you , please keep to the subject Covid vaccine

emmas gran thank you for your comments and trying to re-focus the thread.  Much appreciated.  Since I used the "ignore button" for that poster, I can only presume that is why the thread continues to go sideways up and down.  Let's try to keep to the OP's topic on whether COVID vaccines will be required for cruise travel.  I personally feel that they will be required.  Vaccination certificates and eDocs and Immunity passports are already being developed if you search the news on this topic.  Quantas is one airline that has stated this as a requirement to fly internationally.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/qantas-coronavirus-vaccination-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

 

Cruise lines are private companies.  They can actually require a vaccine as a condition of employment for their crew and staff.  They can also make vaccination a requirement in their cruise contracts with passengers.  But what about ports and port workers?  Some of these folks are in the public/government sector.  Excursion tour guides?  Bus drivers? Shop keepers?  Some countries might require all these individuals in contact with us on cruises and tourism to be vaccinated.  Probably (definitely) not the US.

[TeeRick]

7 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

This link provides the legal basis for vaccination in the US.  It's worth a read:

 

https://www.idsociety.org/globalassets/idsa/policy--advocacy/mandatory-vaccinations-precedent-and-current-laws-031011.pdf

 

Historically, the preservation of the public health has been the primary responsibility of state and local governments, and the authority to enact laws relevant to the protection of the public health derives from the state’s general police powers. With regard to communicable disease outbreaks, these powers may include the enactment of mandatory vaccination laws. This report provides an overview of the legal precedent for mandatory vaccination laws, and of state laws that require certain individuals or populations, including school-aged children and health care workers, to be vaccinated against various communicable diseases. Also discussed are state laws providing for mandatory vaccinations during a public health emergency or outbreak of a communicable disease.

 

Federal jurisdiction over public health matters derives from the Commerce Clause of the United States Constitution, which states that Congress shall have the power “[t]o regulate Commerce with foreign Nations, and among the several States ... ” Congress has enacted requirements regarding vaccination of immigrants seeking entry into the United States, and military regulations require American troops to be immunized against a number of diseases. The Secretary of Health and Human Services has authority under the Public Health Service Act to issue regulations necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the states or from state to state. Current federal regulations do not include any mandatory vaccination programs; rather, when compulsory measures are needed, measures such as quarantine and isolation are generally utilized to halt the spread of communicable diseases.

Thank you for the link.  Very interesting for sure.  But will the US states require COVID vaccinations?  I would not bet even a penny on that.  Perhaps for public school children.  Even that will be highly resisted.

[ipeeinthepool]

35 minutes ago, nomad098 said:

From what I have read from the UK government and people have posted on here from the CDC and local states cruise ship employees from developing nations will probably be very far down the list for vaccination. 

 

I'm not sure about the UK government, but I would caution you about believing everything that is posted on CC.

 

Vaccine from multiple suppliers will be available around March of next year.  I suspect the cruise lines will purchase vaccine directly from the drug companies to vaccinate their employees.  I also suspect that people will circumvent the national health care industry recommendations and they will get vaccinated by the private doctors in the UK.  I also suspect that the private health care system will be able to purchase vaccine directly from the drug companies.

[emmas gran]

I read this BBC regarding USA and vaccines

 

President-elect Joe Biden says Americans won't be forced to take a coronavirus vaccine when one becomes available in the US.

 

It may be true may not, just quoting what I read

 

Liz

[markeb]

2 minutes ago, emmas gran said:

I read this BBC regarding USA and vaccines

 

President-elect Joe Biden says Americans won't be forced to take a coronavirus vaccine when one becomes available in the US.

 

It may be true may not, just quoting what I read

 

Liz

 

I think I've seen the same, but that's consistent with the role of the federal and state governments in the US; the federal government could require vaccination for entry into the US, and theoretically for movement between states, but the states generally have the authority to compel public health measures within their borders, not the federal government. Compulsory vaccination has generally been limited to school age children, college admissions, occupational risk groups, military, etc., and most of that at the state, territorial, tribal, and local levels.

[K.T.B.]

21 minutes ago, emmas gran said:

I read this BBC regarding USA and vaccines

 

President-elect Joe Biden says Americans won't be forced to take a coronavirus vaccine when one becomes available in the US.

 

It may be true may not, just quoting what I read

 

Liz

 

While I personally feel that they should make it mandatory, I understand the politics in why Biden is saying what he's saying.

 

One thing to remember here:  If you're 55 and older and you catch this virus, you have a 92% chance of dying from it.  So those of us who are over 55, why wouldn't you get the vaccine then?  Oh, and that's NOT a made up number.  That number comes directly from the CDC (LINK)

Edited December 5, 2020 by K.T.B.

[nocl]

11 hours ago, nocl said:

A couple of issues with the links.

 

First the report does not say that there was 6.3 times more virus shedding.  It says that there was more in fine aerosol samples, not total virus shedding.  The paper also states

 

"Several researchers have recently shown that exhaled aerosol particles are frequently generated from normal healthy lungs by small airway closure and reopening (19⇓–21)r"

 

In other words those that have been vaccinated recently (this or previous year) are more likely to shed virus in fine aerosols, than those that have not been vaccinated because their lungs are healthier even when infected.  

 

So the report really does not support your position.  The report also does not deal with strains and if the person was infected with one of the strains included in their vaccination

 

As far as the second you are making an error in interpreting the results. You are really off base in your interpretation of the data.

 

  Not everyone gets the flu every year. Using their data from a number of studies.  According to their analysis f you are not vaccinated you have a 2.3 percent change of catching the flu.  If you are vaccinated your odds improve to .9%.  So taking the vaccine has reduced ones odds of getting the flu by over 60%.  The 71 number comes that the reduce in the chance of catching the flu is reduces by 1.4%    100/1.4 = 71.2   which means that if the illness incidence is 2.3% of the population and you reduce it to .9%  then you will prevent one person from getting sick if you vaccinate 71 people.  After all 97.7% will not get the illness at all even if infected.

 

Apply this stats to the the vaccinated population of 150 million the same stats would indicate that 2.11 flu infections would be prevented.  Reducing the number of infections by over 60%.

 

Inactivated influenza vaccines probably reduce influenza in healthy adults from 2.3% without vaccination to 0.9% (risk ratio (RR) 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36 to 0.47;  .

 

 

 

made an typo line should say 97.7% will not get the illness even if not vaccinated.

[latserrof]

20 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

..

 

One thing to remember here:  If you're 55 and older and you catch this virus, you have a 92% chance of dying from it.  . That number comes directly from the CDC (LINK)

PLEASE STOP!!!!  Your conclusion is absurd!!!!! How do you get it from that link??? Even if 92% of Covid deaths were age 55 and older, that does not mean anyone 55 or older with Covid has a 92% chance of dying. 

[TeeRick]

43 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

While I personally feel that they should make it mandatory, I understand the politics in why Biden is saying what he's saying.

 

One thing to remember here:  If you're 55 and older and you catch this virus, you have a 92% chance of dying from it.  So those of us who are over 55, why wouldn't you get the vaccine then?  Oh, and that's NOT a made up number.  That number comes directly from the CDC (LINK)

Typo???

[d9704011]

2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Typo???

Nope, just plain old unmitigated trash.

[latserrof]

Covid-infected people ages 55-59 have less than 1% chance of dying from it.  Even at age 80+, it's only 8.2%

 

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/18/covid-infection-fatality-rates-sex-and-age-15163

 

But there's no cure for stupid.

Edited December 5, 2020 by latserrof

[Fouremco]

58 minutes ago, latserrof said:

PLEASE STOP!!!!  Your conclusion is absurd!!!!! How do you get it from that link??? Even if 92% of Covid deaths were age 55 and older, that does not mean anyone 55 or older with Covid has a 92% chance of dying. 

K.T.B. is guilty of Syllogistic Fallacy.

 

All crows are black. The bird in my cage is black. Therefore, this bird is a crow.

 

92% of COVID deaths were people aged 55 or older. I'm 55 or older. Therefore, I have a 92% chance of dying from COVID.

Edited December 5, 2020 by Fouremco

[kirtihk]

On 12/3/2020 at 10:46 AM, phoenix_dream said:

That's not what I said, nor is it what I meant.  No sense responding with logic so I won't.

Once again: no one cared previously! That’s the point! Within last 9 months we hear screams about “protecting loved ones” even if we talk about just 1 life. That’s makes perfect sense! However, what about any time prior to March 2020?! I know it’s pointless discussion, because the history does not teach us anything. I witnessed and experienced “on my own skin” for the first half of my life (30 years!!!) in Russia how it “works”. I thought I will not be part of that anymore. And yet, here we are again. And no one listen to me as if I am telling some folk stories for children.

[zanderblue]

3 hours ago, nomad098 said:

 

I can only speak to what the UK Government

No decision made in the UK whether under 50's without a health condition will get the vaccine, you may be able to purchase a vaccine but not until all at risk groups are vaccinated and doses allocated to COVAX

 

 

 

And I can only speak to what the Scottish government have said.They have made a decision about under 50’s. Below is a quote straight from their covid website. Additionally, the national clinical director is advising under 50’s may have to wait to early summer, but they are on the list!

 

“Vaccination for other groups will begin as soon as the supply of vaccine becomes available. The aim is for every adult in Scotland to be offered the vaccination.

NHS Scotland strongly recommends you get your vaccine as soon as it's offered to you.”

[nomad098]

11 minutes ago, zanderblue said:

 

And I can only speak to what the Scottish government have said.They have made a decision about under 50’s. Below is a quote straight from their covid website. Additionally, the national clinical director is advising under 50’s may have to wait to early summer, but they are on the list!

 

“Vaccination for other groups will begin as soon as the supply of vaccine becomes available. The aim is for every adult in Scotland to be offered the vaccination.

NHS Scotland strongly recommends you get your vaccine as soon as it's offered to you.”

 

No news either way in Wales, with the UK government in charge of procurement if they stop at the over 50's the Welsh, Northern Irish and the Scottish government may have to pay for this out of their own pockets to meet their aims. It will end up being a postcode lottery like many NHS treatments. 

[Keys Kathy]

I am interested in my CC cohorts opinion on what will happen next. Does anyone know how the Cruise Lines will deal with the vaccine?

 

I believe that the current plan includes testing before you get on, limited interaction with people in the ports etc. Are they requiring people wear masks or just sanitize?

 

There have been lines that have required masks and limiting buffets and entertainment. 

 

So, if we have had our shots, and I mean both, what is the next plan? We will we still need to be tested and wear masks? I have always said I would not cruise with a mask. Does anyone have any info???