Hot of the press! I see no cruising until 2022

[TheMastodon]

17 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

No, we cannot agree on the bolded.  It isn't "odds".  This isn't a game of chance.  Infection is, in part, dose dependent.  We still can't figure out how or why someone becomes a "super spreader", and it remains a mystery how people in the same household react differently to getting infected.  But we do know that dose and duration are factors.

 

Know a few people who have had members of their household test positive, but no one else in the house contracted it.  My educated guess is that some people have high viral loads that will spread easy, and other people don't have high viral loads that don't spread as easy.  Perhaps diff strains of Covid are more transmittable than others?  However,  there are known issues with PCR testing and the # of cycles that are run..  Per the Dr's I know anything over 40 cycles could be detecting dead virus, but will produce a positive test result.  It could be that the people I know who tested positive just had high cycle PCR testing that detected dead virus, and they of course wouldn't spread to other members of their household.   I believe some states are starting to look into the # of cycles that are run to produce test results.  Yes, this virus is everywhere and the numbers show that.  But, many of these positive results could just be dead virus.  Who knows!

 

With anything "new" it takes time to figure out.  They will be learning all sorts of stuff about Covid19 for years to come.  

 

Being an eternal optimist my hope is that in the next 5-6 months enough of the older population gets vaccinated which should drop the hospitalization rates considerably.  I don't know about you, but I am thankful this isn't the 1918 pandemic - not sure how our society would cope/handle that when EVERYONE could die.

 

 

[JimmyVWine]

4 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

 

Know a few people who have had members of their household test positive, but no one else in the house contracted it.  My educated guess is that some people have high viral loads that will spread easy, and other people don't have high viral loads that don't spread as easy.  Perhaps diff strains of Covid are more transmittable than others?  However,  there are known issues with PCR testing and the # of cycles that are run..  Per the Dr's I know anything over 40 cycles could be detecting dead virus, but will produce a positive test result.  It could be that the people I know who tested positive just had high cycle PCR testing that detected dead virus, and they of course wouldn't spread to other members of their household.   I believe some states are starting to look into the # of cycles that are run to produce test results.  Yes, this virus is everywhere and the numbers show that.  But, many of these positive results could just be dead virus.  Who knows!

 

With anything "new" it takes time to figure out.  They will be learning all sorts of stuff about Covid19 for years to come.  

 

Being an eternal optimist my hope is that in the next 5-6 months enough of the older population gets vaccinated which should drop the hospitalization rates considerably.  I don't know about you, but I am thankful this isn't the 1918 pandemic - not sure how our society would cope/handle that when EVERYONE could die.

 

 

Interesting stuff!  It is likely that everyone knows someone who had it, but no one else in the household did.  And then you read about a wedding where 85 people got it.  The "dead virus" --> positive test idea is intriguing.  

 

Good question about how we would handle the 1918 situation now.  I have been preaching patience.  The 2018 event was a two, almost 3 year event.  The Great Depression was a decade.  World War II was 9 years for some countries.  4 years in the U.S.  But everyone wants Covid to be over in a month.  People nowadays get "lockdown fever" and "mask fatigue" after a few weeks.  Our "instant gratification culture" has caused us to forget how much grit and perseverance those who came before us had.  Yes, we will get back to normal. Yes, the economy will recover.  Yes, we will get to cruise again.  But it might take more than 6 months to get there.  Me ordering groceries to my house and wearing a mask when I go outside is nothing compared to what my grandparents experienced in the 1930s or what my parents experienced during WWII.  I wear a cloth mask.  My "Doughboy" grandfather wore a gas mask.  I get a warm meal delivered to me using an app on my phone.  My father got a cold meal after parachuting into Normandy and retaking a French village.  I'd rather have my personal freedom challenged with a mask order than an order to jump out of a plane over Sainte Mere-Eglise.

[TheMastodon]

13 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Interesting stuff!  It is likely that everyone knows someone who had it, but no one else in the household did.  And then you read about a wedding where 85 people got it.  The "dead virus" --> positive test idea is intriguing.  

 

Good question about how we would handle the 1918 situation now.  I have been preaching patience.  The 2018 event was a two, almost 3 year event.  The Great Depression was a decade.  World War II was 9 years for some countries.  4 years in the U.S.  But everyone wants Covid to be over in a month.  People nowadays get "lockdown fever" and "mask fatigue" after a few weeks.  Our "instant gratification culture" has caused us to forget how much grit and perseverance those who came before us had.  Yes, we will get back to normal. Yes, the economy will recover.  Yes, we will get to cruise again.  But it might take more than 6 months to get there.  Me ordering groceries to my house and wearing a mask when I go outside is nothing compared to what my grandparents experienced in the 1930s or what my parents experienced during WWII.  I wear a cloth mask.  My "Doughboy" grandfather wore a gas mask.  I get a warm meal delivered to me using an app on my phone.  My father got a cold meal after parachuting into Normandy and retaking a French village.  I'd rather have my personal freedom challenged with a mask order than an order to jump out of a plane over Sainte Mere-Eglise.

 

Those generations were some HARD people.   Nothing came easy and they worked for everything (quite the opposite of my cell phone addicted/sociopathic generation)

 

The economy is an interesting topic - Unfortunately, the people most affected by this are folks who don't make a whole lot of money.  I fear the income gap is only going to get wider because of Covid19.  It is yet to be determined how our economy handles this in the years to come.  This month alone an estimated 100,000 restaurants are going to permanently close.  A lot of folks are loosing jobs who kind of barely get by to begin with - this is troubling to me.  

 

Education also worries me - most middle/upper class families kids are back in school.  It seems that most inner city schools nationwide are still doing "distance learning" - what a disaster.  School is stability for inner city youth - right now they don't have that.

 

Many unknowns right now....

 

I've always contended that those who are yelling the loudest (journalists) for hard lockdowns don't have skin in the game.  When you lock everything down, there are human consequences.  Businesses/schools did not close down in 1918.  

 

I still have no idea how Asia/Africa/Middle East are handling Covid better than Europe/Americas.  I don't think all those folks are just sitting in their homes hunkered down waiting it out. 

 

 

 

[suzyluvs2cruise]

A final confirmatory test conducted by the National Public Health Laboratory (NPHL) on 10 December 2020 has confirmed that the 83 year-old male Singaporean on board Royal Caribbean International’s Quantum of the Seas does not have COVID-19 infection. The sample taken from the individual this morning came back negative for the virus. This follows two Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests conducted yesterday by NPHL, one on a re-test of his original sample, and the other on a fresh sample taken yesterday, which had also come back negative. We have rescinded the Quarantine Orders of his close contacts, who had earlier been placed on quarantine as a precautionary measure while investigations were ongoing. MOH will support the laboratory on board the Quantum of the Seas in its review of its testing processes.
 

 

Ministry of Health in Singapore

[TheMastodon]

Just now, suzyluvs2cruise said:

A final confirmatory test conducted by the National Public Health Laboratory (NPHL) on 10 December 2020 has confirmed that the 83 year-old male Singaporean on board Royal Caribbean International’s Quantum of the Seas does not have COVID-19 infection. The sample taken from the individual this morning came back negative for the virus. This follows two Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests conducted yesterday by NPHL, one on a re-test of his original sample, and the other on a fresh sample taken yesterday, which had also come back negative. We have rescinded the Quarantine Orders of his close contacts, who had earlier been placed on quarantine as a precautionary measure while investigations were ongoing. MOH will support the laboratory on board the Quantum of the Seas in its review of its testing processes.
 

 

Ministry of Health in Singapore

 

How many "positive cases" does the United States have again? 🤣🤣

[Seville2Cabo]

On 12/9/2020 at 8:52 AM, AZjohn said:

it is just my understanding the initial data (of the two mRNA vaccines) shows the 5% that did catch Covid were only tested once systems developed. There wasn't any test results for the other 95% that didn't have symptoms.

Not true.  First, 5% did not get the virus.  The number of participants that got the vaccine and got Covid was 5% of the number of participants that got the placebo and got Covid.  Therefore the vaccine was 95% effective.  

 

Also, I know 3 participants and they were all tested every week.

[Germancruiser]

10 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

Interesting stuff!  It is likely that everyone knows someone who had it, but no one else in the household did.  And then you read about a wedding where 85 people got it.  The "dead virus" --> positive test idea is intriguing.  

 

Good question about how we would handle the 1918 situation now.  I have been preaching patience.  The 2018 event was a two, almost 3 year event.  The Great Depression was a decade.  World War II was 9 years for some countries.  4 years in the U.S.  But everyone wants Covid to be over in a month.  People nowadays get "lockdown fever" and "mask fatigue" after a few weeks.  Our "instant gratification culture" has caused us to forget how much grit and perseverance those who came before us had.  Yes, we will get back to normal. Yes, the economy will recover.  Yes, we will get to cruise again.  But it might take more than 6 months to get there.  Me ordering groceries to my house and wearing a mask when I go outside is nothing compared to what my grandparents experienced in the 1930s or what my parents experienced during WWII.  I wear a cloth mask.  My "Doughboy" grandfather wore a gas mask.  I get a warm meal delivered to me using an app on my phone.  My father got a cold meal after parachuting into Normandy and retaking a French village.  I'd rather have my personal freedom challenged with a mask order than an order to jump out of a plane over Sainte Mere-Eglise.

Best post I read in while. Seems our predeccors where made of a much stronger cloth. Neither the Baby Boomers nor the following generations had to suffer what those before had to endure. So we are just not used to have to cut back- to adjust- to deny oneself the slightest bit.

Quite understandable- for decades everything went up up up- more more more.. - very hard to face what a Pandemic can create in our days.

Well, there is still hope- LOL- they made through the whole of the 20th century- and we will make through Covid.

For an example - I just read in one of our newspapers these days " New York will never be the same after Covid" - oh my- of course it will be different- but it will still be New York- it has survived more hardsdhip then 1 year or so with Covid.

[GonzoWCS]

11 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

Interesting stuff!  It is likely that everyone knows someone who had it, but no one else in the household did.  And then you read about a wedding where 85 people got it.  The "dead virus" --> positive test idea is intriguing.  

 

Good question about how we would handle the 1918 situation now.  I have been preaching patience.  The 2018 event was a two, almost 3 year event.  The Great Depression was a decade.  World War II was 9 years for some countries.  4 years in the U.S.  But everyone wants Covid to be over in a month.  People nowadays get "lockdown fever" and "mask fatigue" after a few weeks.  Our "instant gratification culture" has caused us to forget how much grit and perseverance those who came before us had.  Yes, we will get back to normal. Yes, the economy will recover.  Yes, we will get to cruise again.  But it might take more than 6 months to get there.  Me ordering groceries to my house and wearing a mask when I go outside is nothing compared to what my grandparents experienced in the 1930s or what my parents experienced during WWII.  I wear a cloth mask.  My "Doughboy" grandfather wore a gas mask.  I get a warm meal delivered to me using an app on my phone.  My father got a cold meal after parachuting into Normandy and retaking a French village.  I'd rather have my personal freedom challenged with a mask order than an order to jump out of a plane over Sainte Mere-Eglise.

Yes!

[ipeeinthepool]

20 hours ago, jean87510 said:

Because they have a DeLorean and the ability to harness 1.21 jiggawatts.

 

You're showing your age.  😉

[travelhound]

22 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

Interesting stuff!  It is likely that everyone knows someone who had it, but no one else in the household did.  And then you read about a wedding where 85 people got it.  The "dead virus" --> positive test idea is intriguing.  

 

Good question about how we would handle the 1918 situation now.  I have been preaching patience.  The 2018 event was a two, almost 3 year event.  The Great Depression was a decade.  World War II was 9 years for some countries.  4 years in the U.S.  But everyone wants Covid to be over in a month.  People nowadays get "lockdown fever" and "mask fatigue" after a few weeks.  Our "instant gratification culture" has caused us to forget how much grit and perseverance those who came before us had.  Yes, we will get back to normal. Yes, the economy will recover.  Yes, we will get to cruise again.  But it might take more than 6 months to get there.  Me ordering groceries to my house and wearing a mask when I go outside is nothing compared to what my grandparents experienced in the 1930s or what my parents experienced during WWII.  I wear a cloth mask.  My "Doughboy" grandfather wore a gas mask.  I get a warm meal delivered to me using an app on my phone.  My father got a cold meal after parachuting into Normandy and retaking a French village.  I'd rather have my personal freedom challenged with a mask order than an order to jump out of a plane over Sainte Mere-Eglise.

Yup, it's important to put things in the proper perspective.  This is a very minor crisis in the context of history.

[Eddie Wilson]

On 12/9/2020 at 10:11 AM, JimmyVWine said:

Only the richest, most aggressive countries could achieve a critical mass of vaccination by the summer.  Few of the countries that serve as ports of call for cruises meet this definition.  And when we are talking about the Caribbean, "few" becomes "none". 

 

 Either way, robust vaccination of passengers from wealthy and aggressive countries (which may or may not be completed by the end of 2021) is only the first step.  Vaccinating the residents of the countries where ships will port is the second step.  No way that is completed by summer.

Each of the respective countries which serve as ports will make their own decisions as to who they vaccinate in what order.  Also, even if not WEALTHY they are not shut out of the vaccine.  For at least 12 countries the down payment of their vaccine was MADE months ago by CARPHA . I anticipate the non wealthy countries will Vaccinate ASAP also.

Eddie

 

CARPHA, PAHO and the EU Partner to Guarantee Equitable Access to more than 1M doses of Anticipated COVID-19 Vaccine

[LXA350]

Showing the challenges you have in countries where there are almost no cases, US will not see any cruises even trial cruises before Q2 2021 as it seems.

[GonzoWCS]

3 hours ago, LXA350 said:

Showing the challenges you have in countries where there are almost no cases, US will not see any cruises even trial cruises before Q2 2021 as it seems.

Yeah tend to agree with this for sure.

 

Cheers

[Spif Barwunkel]

The many and varied entities involved in making the decisions indicates a lengthy process toward the return to a semblance of normality. The vaccine is a good thing and will serve purpose in the transition back to customary cruising. However, the structure to which we are accustomed is not an easy fix. Nor should it be.

 

Based on test cruises being successful followed by uneventful post-test shorter cruises on less than full ships, I see all of 2021 having full protocol requirements. Depending on how 2021 and covid19 get along, social distancing may ease in early 2022 but masks and ships tours will continue into the summer. If all remains good, private tours and personal sightseeing worldwide could be a go in the fall of ’22 and the winter of ’23 with masks still being required. From there it’s a data- based warm tummy feeling that will end all restrictions.

 

This conjecture may seem extreme to many, sort of a gloom and doom opinion. I see it as a logical progression toward safe travels, providing once again the enjoyment to which we are accustomed. For all of us, it requires patience and adapting to the process.

 

Our future cruising mettle will certainly be tested in the months, maybe years to come.

[mek]

2 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

The many and varied entities involved in making the decisions indicates a lengthy process toward the return to a semblance of normality. The vaccine is a good thing and will serve purpose in the transition back to customary cruising. However, the structure to which we are accustomed is not an easy fix. Nor should it be.

 

Based on test cruises being successful followed by uneventful post-test shorter cruises on less than full ships, I see all of 2021 having full protocol requirements. Depending on how 2021 and covid19 get along, social distancing may ease in early 2022 but masks and ships tours will continue into the summer. If all remains good, private tours and personal sightseeing worldwide could be a go in the fall of ’22 and the winter of ’23 with masks still being required. From there it’s a data- based warm tummy feeling that will end all restrictions.

 

This conjecture may seem extreme to many, sort of a gloom and doom opinion. I see it as a logical progression toward safe travels, providing once again the enjoyment to which we are accustomed. For all of us, it requires patience and adapting to the process.

 

Our future cruising mettle will certainly be tested in the months, maybe years to come.

Count me out  if this is the future of cruising.  I can be patient and wait for cruising to resume to something I'm interested in but I have absolutely no intentions of "adapting" and I believe there are many who feel the same.

My life will go on just fine if I never step foot on a ship again, but I realize there are some people who will do whatever is necessary to cruise.  There are simply too many other vacation options available for me to pine away for something that for many reasons may never return to pre-covid standards.

Only time will tell what that future is and I truly wish everyone who is willing to compromise, the best.

Edited December 12, 2020 by mek

[Alnursu]

On 12/9/2020 at 10:11 AM, JimmyVWine said:

There is no modeling that suggests such an aggressive timeline for vaccinations.  Only the richest, most aggressive countries could achieve a critical mass of vaccination by the summer.  Few of the countries that serve as ports of call for cruises meet this definition.  And when we are talking about the Caribbean, "few" becomes "none". 

 

The great unknown is how counties that usually welcome cruise ships will handle a return to cruising.  Requiring vaccination of people before they board a ship is fine, (and anticipated).  But remember that the vaccine does not kill the virus. It only prevents it from embedding in your system and taking hold of you.  Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.  What we don't know is whether counties with limited vaccination programs will allow vaccinated cruise passengers to get off the ship.  It is a risk to the port country, but perhaps one they are willing to take.  Or not.  Either way, robust vaccination of passengers from wealthy and aggressive countries (which may or may not be completed by the end of 2021) is only the first step.  Vaccinating the residents of the countries where ships will port is the second step.  No way that is completed by summer.

 

And finally, there is the economics of getting this wrong that has to be considered. What just happened to RCL is a huge setback.  Sure, they will downplay it, and the cruise industry will downplay it.  But it is a huge setback.  The ramifications of getting this wrong are bad for most businesses, but fatal to the cruise industry.  Shutting down a cruise, quarantining all of the passengers in their cabins, forcing them to stay on board for extra days, refunding their fares, offering them 125% future credits, rearranging thousands of flights home, etc. are all costs that no other industry is facing.  Not to mention the loss of consumer confidence.  If cruise lines cannot deliver an almost perfect experience, then the entire industry as we know if will collapse. No other industry is going to depend on "almost perfection" the way the cruise industry will.  This is literally a "bet the company" issue for cruise lines and what just happened to RCL is sure to delay the return to normal for some yet-to-be-determined length of time.

Well said! People think that once you get the vaccine everything goew back to normal as you said its only the start of a long road.

[lenquixote66]

On 12/9/2020 at 8:07 AM, Greg4502 said:

 A Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ship on a four-day pleasure trip was forced to return to port in Singapore and confine passengers to their cabins after a positive Covid-19 case was identified, showing the challenges of reviving cruise travel while the pandemic continues.

Passengers Stuck on Royal Caribbean Ship After Covid Case (msn.com)

My prediction is that cruising without restrictions will be in July 2023.

[Biker19]

4 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

My prediction is that cruising without restrictions will be in July 2023.

Welcome to almost two weeks ago when that was proven to be a false positive.

 

Biker, who thinks such over reactions (cancel the following sailing) will diminish with time.

[Ourusualbeach]

9 hours ago, Biker19 said:

Biker, who thinks such over reactions (cancel the following sailing) will diminish with time.

I would even go as far as to say not returning to port early because of one “suspected” case. 

[Iplayslots]

Not enough money to bail out these cruise lines until 2022.  If they are not sailing revenue cruises by at least 15% fleet wide you can kiss this industry goodbye.  It is pure economics at play here.   The banks and private equity firms have given as much as they can already...

[lenquixote66]

13 hours ago, Biker19 said:

Welcome to almost two weeks ago when that was proven to be a false positive.

 

Biker, who thinks such over reactions (cancel the following sailing) will diminish with time.

Remember that it was me who said July 2023.I will even be more specific:

July 24,2023.

[ReneeFLL]

58 minutes ago, Iplayslots said:

Not enough money to bail out these cruise lines until 2022.  If they are not sailing revenue cruises by at least 15% fleet wide you can kiss this industry goodbye.  It is pure economics at play here.   The banks and private equity firms have given as much as they can already...

And where's your proof?

 

[ReneeFLL]

46 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

Remember that it was me who said July 2023.I will even be more specific:

July 24,2023.

Is that the day you have a cruise or is your crystal ball talking to you?

 

[lenquixote66]

1 hour ago, ReneeFLL said:

Is that the day you have a cruise or is your crystal ball talking to you?

 

That is a very special birthday for me. I will be in my 9th decade of life.

Crystal balls do not talk to anyone.

[ReneeFLL]

2 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

That is a very special birthday for me. I will be in my 9th decade of life.

Crystal balls do not talk to anyone.

I was joking about th crystal ball. I don't believe in that stuff anyway.