Hot of the press! I see no cruising until 2022

[suekel]

I have 2  cruises at the end of 2021 and I fully expect them to happen.  

[c-boy]

18 minutes ago, suekel said:

I have 2  cruises at the end of 2021 and I fully expect them to happen.  

Ha ! there's the spirit 👍

[darknightsdespiser]

5 hours ago, GonzoWCS said:

Unless you are able to work from home?

But you still need fresh air and to buy food!

[chengkp75]

4 hours ago, AZjohn said:

Yep, good article you linked (no political bias). But, most every paragraph states they simply do not have the answers to spreading yet with the vaccine (and they agree this really needs to looked at).

 

Cheers,

John

This is correct.  Pfizer admits that there was no contact tracing of vaccine recipients to see if they could potentially continue to transmit the virus.  They were looking at the efficacy of the vaccine, not its ability to stop transmission.  So, further studies need to be done.

[Bgwest]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

Really?? The facts are the cruise was cut short and the next cruise cancelled out of an abundance of caution. Now it seems that it may have been a false positive, but it still cut the cruise short and had all passengers sent to their cabins. You honestly don't think that this poses a problem for the revival of the cruise industry?

Really. 
 

I do not possess the professional qualifications to make such an emphatic statement as to OP chose to title the thread. 
 

You may possess such qualifications. I wouldn’t know.

 

The OP may as well. Hence my question. 

[GonzoWCS]

3 hours ago, darknightsdespiser said:

But you still need fresh air and to buy food!

Yes for to be sure.  We are blessed to be in a position where 

1.  We live in NW Florida - fresh air

2.  We have more than one way to do curbside pickup and drop food right in the back our our pickup

 

The challenges have been heavy, but we have adapted so far so good

 

Cheers

 

[firefly333]

11 hours ago, Greg4502 said:

 A Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ship on a four-day pleasure trip was forced to return to port in Singapore and confine passengers to their cabins after a positive Covid-19 case was identified, showing the challenges of reviving cruise travel while the pandemic continues.

Passengers Stuck on Royal Caribbean Ship After Covid Case (msn.com)

I bought non refundable hotel for sept on the beach so I'll go no matter what. It's crazy to think peop,e will say flying is safe but not cruising to me. 

 

And if my cruises go, I'll go, I dont work and hey maybe I'll get more loyalty pts and stuck on my balcony in quarantine..bring it on. I felt sure enough of sept to book my hotel and parking. I also have a xmas cruise dec 2021.

 

I'll be vaccinated with the rest of the seniors, and stay as much to myself as I can until covid is gone. Yep I disagree. At some pt we will be cruising, even if not everyone chooses to get vaccinated... they predict by the end of may everyone who wants to be vaccinated will be. 

 

Stay home, it's ok, I get it's not for everyone. Idk the exact month we will be cruising, but I'd bet before  my dec cruise in 2021.

[firefly333]

4 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Really?? The facts are the cruise was cut short and the next cruise cancelled out of an abundance of caution. Now it seems that it may have been a false positive, but it still cut the cruise short and had all passengers sent to their cabins. You honestly don't think that this poses a problem for the revival of the cruise industry?

Did you read the article, ok they spent half a day in their cabins. They knew this was possible when they booked.

 

Terms of the cruise were the ship would be within 6 hours of the port so they could come back in, which they did. Oh well, seems to me the op just looking for attention. Hardly the big calamity his thread proclaimed. 

[neverbeenhere]

More vaccines in many pipelines. Who knows what the results of those will be?

 

More testing in development, maybe faster and more accurate??  

[Tippyton]

10 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

There is no modeling that suggests such an aggressive timeline for vaccinations.  Only the richest, most aggressive countries could achieve a critical mass of vaccination by the summer.  Few of the countries that serve as ports of call for cruises meet this definition.  And when we are talking about the Caribbean, "few" becomes "none". 

 

The great unknown is how counties that usually welcome cruise ships will handle a return to cruising.  Requiring vaccination of people before they board a ship is fine, (and anticipated).  But remember that the vaccine does not kill the virus. It only prevents it from embedding in your system and taking hold of you.  Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.  What we don't know is whether counties with limited vaccination programs will allow vaccinated cruise passengers to get off the ship.  It is a risk to the port country, but perhaps one they are willing to take.  Or not.  Either way, robust vaccination of passengers from wealthy and aggressive countries (which may or may not be completed by the end of 2021) is only the first step.  Vaccinating the residents of the countries where ships will port is the second step.  No way that is completed by summer.

 

And finally, there is the economics of getting this wrong that has to be considered. What just happened to RCL is a huge setback.  Sure, they will downplay it, and the cruise industry will downplay it.  But it is a huge setback.  The ramifications of getting this wrong are bad for most businesses, but fatal to the cruise industry.  Shutting down a cruise, quarantining all of the passengers in their cabins, forcing them to stay on board for extra days, refunding their fares, offering them 125% future credits, rearranging thousands of flights home, etc. are all costs that no other industry is facing.  Not to mention the loss of consumer confidence.  If cruise lines cannot deliver an almost perfect experience, then the entire industry as we know if will collapse. No other industry is going to depend on "almost perfection" the way the cruise industry will.  This is literally a "bet the company" issue for cruise lines and what just happened to RCL is sure to delay the return to normal for some yet-to-be-determined length of time.

 

Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.

 

Not yet demonstrated as fact.  Hepatitis, Chicken Pox, and other viruses all have vaccines and nobody said I can still spread chicken pox if I've been vaccinated.  This is a narrative driven by the paralysis of impotence of our leaders.  Nothing more than more fear-mongering.  In fact, I'll argue that it is having a counter-effect by people saying "why bother - I can feel like ***** for 2 days, still spread it, and put something unproven into my body.  No thank you!"

[bcwife76]

4 hours ago, darknightsdespiser said:

But you still need fresh air and to buy food!

We've had a mandatory 14 day quarantine in Canada since the end of March if you come back home from outside of the country. Fresh air only on your property, all food and medications must be delivered, you CANNOT leave your home unless it's for medical appointments. We don't work from home so we've only traveled within Canada (heck, only within BC) since March (and no where since August). So ready for the vaccines ....they start doling them out here next week.

[chengkp75]

7 hours ago, Tippyton said:

 

Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.

 

Not yet demonstrated as fact.  Hepatitis, Chicken Pox, and other viruses all have vaccines and nobody said I can still spread chicken pox if I've been vaccinated.  This is a narrative driven by the paralysis of impotence of our leaders.  Nothing more than more fear-mongering.  In fact, I'll argue that it is having a counter-effect by people saying "why bother - I can feel like ***** for 2 days, still spread it, and put something unproven into my body.  No thank you!"

Not yet demonstrated as not a fact, either.  There are several vaccinations that allow for the vaccinated person to continue to carry and transmit virus for a period after vaccination.  I believe pertussis is one of them.  It is not merely fear mongering, Pfizer itself admits this is a serious area of concern, one that has not been addressed in their studies, and one that needs further study.

[ace2542]

22 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Just another reason to require a vaccine in order to cruise.

That will allow cruising to resume but not in all parts of the world. We will get our vaccine needs in U.S Canada and Europe by mid/late 2021. In other parts of the world they may not.

[ipeeinthepool]

27 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

That will allow cruising to resume but not in all parts of the world. We will get our vaccine needs in U.S Canada and Europe by mid/late 2021. In other parts of the world they may not.

 

That's why it's even more important that everyone on the ship be vaccinated to minimize the chance that people on the ship infect anyone in other parts of the world.

[Biker19]

1 minute ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

That's why it's even more important that everyone on the ship be vaccinated to minimize the chance that people on the ship get sick.

Fixed.

[ontheweb]

12 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Did you read the article, ok they spent half a day in their cabins. They knew this was possible when they booked.

 

Terms of the cruise were the ship would be within 6 hours of the port so they could come back in, which they did. Oh well, seems to me the op just looking for attention. Hardly the big calamity his thread proclaimed. 

Yes, I read the article.

 

So when cruising starts up again, the ship must always be within 6 hours of the home port so being quarantined in your cabin will be no longer than a half day? Does not sound like a very practical method of restarting the industry.

 

And even when they learned that it was a false positive, they cancelled the next cruise "out of an abundance of caution". Interesting.

[crewsweeper]

16 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

This is correct.  Pfizer admits that there was no contact tracing of vaccine recipients to see if they could potentially continue to transmit the virus.  They were looking at the efficacy of the vaccine, not its ability to stop transmission.  So, further studies need to be done.

And this is like all other vaccines for corona viruses (e.g. your annual flu shot).  They work on the individual getting the vaccine, not on curing the virus for the population.

 

However, some recent studies show that through contract tracing the asymptomatic carriers aren't major spreaders, if at all.  Same for school aged children. 

 

And do note that statistically, while this corona virus has spread world wide and sadly caused large numbers of deaths,  in terms of the whole world (or even a single country) the vast majority of people haven't contracted the virus.

 

So think of it like a cruise ship with NORO.  A ship with 4000+ passengers and crew, gets 200 cases of NORO.  Bad, the ship needs to be fully sanitized and passengers need to be cognizant of the outbreak, but the vast majority are well and still can have a good cruise with out being "locked up in their cabins".

[firefly333]

23 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Yes, I read the article.

 

So when cruising starts up again, the ship must always be within 6 hours of the home port so being quarantined in your cabin will be no longer than a half day? Does not sound like a very practical method of restarting the industry.

 

And even when they learned that it was a false positive, they cancelled the next cruise "out of an abundance of caution". Interesting.

That only applies to quantum OTS, and the conditions they are allowed to do their cruises to no where. Also only residents of singapore. Singapore has their own tracing they require of their own citizens plus they are wearing rcls so they have 2 forms of tracing on the while on the ship. 

 

Singapore has no cluster cases supposedly and very few covid cases, but they trace, we dont. That's why everyone was so surprised that it was possible for a case to get onboard.

[sellwingri]

I am so frustrated with people who say things like “cruising won’t start again until xx/xx/xx”.  Do you know this for a fact?  If not, why say it?  I have 10 cruises booked in 2021 and don’t know when my actual first one will sail.  Royal Caribbean will tell me; I don’t know.

[jean87510]

12 hours ago, Tippyton said:

 

Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.

 

Not yet demonstrated as fact.  Hepatitis, Chicken Pox, and other viruses all have vaccines and nobody said I can still spread chicken pox if I've been vaccinated.  This is a narrative driven by the paralysis of impotence of our leaders.  Nothing more than more fear-mongering.  In fact, I'll argue that it is having a counter-effect by people saying "why bother - I can feel like ***** for 2 days, still spread it, and put something unproven into my body.  No thank you!"

https://www.westernjournal.com/medical-professor-blasts-fauci-3-proofs-spreading-misinformation/

 

 

[jean87510]

8 minutes ago, sellwingri said:

I am so frustrated with people who say things like “cruising won’t start again until xx/xx/xx”.  Do you know this for a fact?  If not, why say it?  I have 10 cruises booked in 2021 and don’t know when my actual first one will sail.  Royal Caribbean will tell me; I don’t know.

Because they have a DeLorean and the ability to harness 1.21 jiggawatts.

[Shipof6Fools]

I to put money on summer sailings. Money talks.

[Wahed]

I saw an article saying the passenger didn't have Coronavirus after further testing.  False positive occurred.

 

https://gcaptain.com/false-positive-covid-diagnosis-shows-challenges-of-cruise-shippings-return/

[JimmyVWine]

13 hours ago, Tippyton said:

Hepatitis, Chicken Pox, and other viruses all have vaccines and nobody said I can still spread chicken pox if I've been vaccinated.

Ummm.  Yeah.  Somebody said that you can still spread Chicken Pox after you have had it or have been vaccinated.  That somebody is the CDC:

 

"Chickenpox is a highly contagious disease caused by the varicella-zoster virus (VZV). The virus spreads easily from people with chickenpox to others who have never had the disease or never been vaccinated. The virus spreads mainly through close contact with someone who has chickenpox.

 

It takes about 2 weeks (from 10 to 21 days) after exposure to a person with chickenpox or shingles for someone to develop chickenpox. If a vaccinated person gets the disease, they can still spread it to others. For most people, getting chickenpox once provides immunity for life. However, for a few people, it is possible to get chickenpox more than once; although, this is not common."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/chickenpox/about/transmission.html#:~:text=If a vaccinated person gets,although%2C this is not common.  

 

Please be careful and do at least a little bit of research before posting things on the internet.  False information on the internet can be very dangerous. As chengkp75 posted above, even Pfizer recognizes this real risk.  But there is good news.  Once a super-majority of people are vaccinated, the contact rate with infected people will drop such that widespread transmission will become difficult.  That is what you see with Chicken Pox.  I promise you that even if you are vaccinated against Chicken Pox, if you put your finger into a blister of an infected person and then rub your finger against another person who has not been infected, that person will get Chicken Pox.  Being vaccinated does not make you a "virus killer".  The virus is still alive on your finger and you can pass it.  But day in and day out, you come in contact with so few people who have the live virus, and in contact with so few people who have either not had the virus before or not been vaccinated, that you opportunity to spread the virus is next to nothing.  We will get there with Covid as well once (and if) vaccination becomes the overwhelming norm.

[orville99]

On 12/9/2020 at 10:52 AM, AZjohn said:

Though there is some theories regarding if one or more of the vaccines only reduces symptoms, I have not seen any actual evidence of this yet. Do you have a link?

 

Not trying to argue your point, it is just my understanding the initial data (of the two mRNA vaccines) shows the 5% that did catch Covid were only tested once systems developed. There wasn't any test results for the other 95% that didn't have symptoms. So, we simply do not know yet how good/bad they deal with asymptomatic or how contagious the 5% became (compared to those they have not had the vaccine).

 

We should have more data shortly and, we have several other manufactures going into phase 3 testing now with different vaccines. 

 

Cheers,

John

 

 

 

 asymptomatic 

According to your governor, the vaccine does not work in California.😷