Hot of the press! I see no cruising until 2022

[Greg4502]

 A Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ship on a four-day pleasure trip was forced to return to port in Singapore and confine passengers to their cabins after a positive Covid-19 case was identified, showing the challenges of reviving cruise travel while the pandemic continues.

Passengers Stuck on Royal Caribbean Ship After Covid Case (msn.com)

[ipeeinthepool]

Just another reason to require a vaccine in order to cruise.

[voljeep]

and hopefully more knowledge about protocol 'black holes' that can be adjusted by all lines

[AZjohn]

It seems every cruise line that has tried to start up with all the safeguards in place can not go more than a couple weeks before Covid 19 makes it on board.

 

Tough I agree that vaccines are the only hope, I don't see that taking all of next year. Cruises will be back on by end of summer 2021. I'm personally putting my money on it 🙂

 

Stay safe.

John

Edited December 9, 2020 by AZjohn

[darknightsdespiser]

Princess's latest advice is to get tested or stay at home for 14 days when you come back; so, have all that fresh air then ruin it by staying in and take 2 weeks' unpaid leave??? *****!!

[JimmyVWine]

1 hour ago, AZjohn said:

Tough I agree that vaccines are the only hope, I don't see that taking all of next year. Cruises will be back on by end of summer 2021.

There is no modeling that suggests such an aggressive timeline for vaccinations.  Only the richest, most aggressive countries could achieve a critical mass of vaccination by the summer.  Few of the countries that serve as ports of call for cruises meet this definition.  And when we are talking about the Caribbean, "few" becomes "none". 

 

The great unknown is how counties that usually welcome cruise ships will handle a return to cruising.  Requiring vaccination of people before they board a ship is fine, (and anticipated).  But remember that the vaccine does not kill the virus. It only prevents it from embedding in your system and taking hold of you.  Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.  What we don't know is whether counties with limited vaccination programs will allow vaccinated cruise passengers to get off the ship.  It is a risk to the port country, but perhaps one they are willing to take.  Or not.  Either way, robust vaccination of passengers from wealthy and aggressive countries (which may or may not be completed by the end of 2021) is only the first step.  Vaccinating the residents of the countries where ships will port is the second step.  No way that is completed by summer.

 

And finally, there is the economics of getting this wrong that has to be considered. What just happened to RCL is a huge setback.  Sure, they will downplay it, and the cruise industry will downplay it.  But it is a huge setback.  The ramifications of getting this wrong are bad for most businesses, but fatal to the cruise industry.  Shutting down a cruise, quarantining all of the passengers in their cabins, forcing them to stay on board for extra days, refunding their fares, offering them 125% future credits, rearranging thousands of flights home, etc. are all costs that no other industry is facing.  Not to mention the loss of consumer confidence.  If cruise lines cannot deliver an almost perfect experience, then the entire industry as we know if will collapse. No other industry is going to depend on "almost perfection" the way the cruise industry will.  This is literally a "bet the company" issue for cruise lines and what just happened to RCL is sure to delay the return to normal for some yet-to-be-determined length of time.

[pms4104]

So, like credit or criminal background check, covid testing shows only a moment in time.

 

Isolate for 14 days ... only to later learn my driver to the port was covid infected ...

 

No failsafe anymore

[voljeep]

23 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

sure to delay the return to normal for some yet-to-be-determined length of time.

every time something like this happens - it is a learning experience for future cruising - which is a bad thing for the folks on board, but a good thing for future cruises

[JimmyVWine]

2 minutes ago, voljeep said:

every time something like this happens - it is a learning experience for future cruising - which is a bad thing for the folks on board, but a good thing for future cruises

True.  But oftentimes the learning experience results in: "Back to the drawing board."  And that is where the additional delay comes in.  As Edison said:  "I have not failed. I just found 10,000 ways that won't work."

[AZjohn]

28 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

But remember that the vaccine does not kill the virus. It only prevents it from embedding in your system and taking hold of you.  Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.

Though there is some theories regarding if one or more of the vaccines only reduces symptoms, I have not seen any actual evidence of this yet. Do you have a link?

 

Not trying to argue your point, it is just my understanding the initial data (of the two mRNA vaccines) shows the 5% that did catch Covid were only tested once systems developed. There wasn't any test results for the other 95% that didn't have symptoms. So, we simply do not know yet how good/bad they deal with asymptomatic or how contagious the 5% became (compared to those they have not had the vaccine).

 

We should have more data shortly and, we have several other manufactures going into phase 3 testing now with different vaccines. 

 

Cheers,

John

 

 

 

 asymptomatic 

[GonzoWCS]

2 hours ago, darknightsdespiser said:

Princess's latest advice is to get tested or stay at home for 14 days when you come back; so, have all that fresh air then ruin it by staying in and take 2 weeks' unpaid leave??? *****!!

Unless you are able to work from home?

[JimmyVWine]

13 minutes ago, AZjohn said:

Though there is some theories regarding if one or more of the vaccines only reduces symptoms, I have not seen any actual evidence of this yet. Do you have a link?

 

Source: Johns Hopkins

"In the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine trials, COVID-19 vaccines are primarily being tested to determine whether they prevent a person from getting sick, from having a prolonged illness, or hospitalization. Importantly, these clinical trials are not focused on whether a vaccine prevents someone from getting the virus at all. In other words, a COVID-19 vaccine may benefit the individual who gets vaccinated, but the virus may still invade the body and it’s possible – if not likely – that a vaccinated person can still spread the virus to others. This is a critical distinction that has received little attention." ...If vaccinated individuals are capable of transmitting infection, then anybody who is not vaccinated fares no differently before than after the introduction of a COVID-19 vaccine.

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/blog/the-messenger-rna-vaccines-and-masks

 

The "anybody who is not vaccinated" in the above sentence are the millions of people who live in areas visited by cruise ships who are behind the timeline curve for global vaccination.  So the great unknown is whether these countries replete with unvaccinated residents will allow vaccinated cruise passengers to storm the beaches.  I know where I would come out on that.  But money is a strong motivator so who knows.

 

Edited December 9, 2020 by JimmyVWine

[AZjohn]

2 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

Source: Johns Hopkins

"In the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine trials, COVID-19 vaccines are primarily being tested to determine whether they prevent a person from getting sick, from having a prolonged illness, or hospitalization. Importantly, these clinical trials are not focused on whether a vaccine prevents someone from getting the virus at all. In other words, a COVID-19 vaccine may benefit the individual who gets vaccinated, but the virus may still invade the body and it’s possible – if not likely – that a vaccinated person can still spread the virus to others. This is a critical distinction that has received little attention."

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/vaccines/blog/the-messenger-rna-vaccines-and-masks

 

 

Yep, good article you linked (no political bias). But, most every paragraph states they simply do not have the answers to spreading yet with the vaccine (and they agree this really needs to looked at).

 

Cheers,

John

[JimmyVWine]

1 minute ago, AZjohn said:

Yep, good article you linked (no political bias). But, most every paragraph states they simply do not have the answers to spreading yet with the vaccine (and they agree this really needs to looked at).

 

Cheers,

John

Agree 100%. A year into this, there are many, many unknowns.  My belief, (and it is only my belief) is that these unknowns are not going to become "knowns" in time for a return to cruising in summer 2021 as suggested in the post that I originally replied to.  Hope I am wrong.  I don't think I am.

 

As an aside, I got in to a bit of a minor board spat way back when when I stated (perhaps too emphatically) that there was no way that we would see any cruises in the remainder of 2020.  The opposing poster was sure that their Thanksgiving cruise would go as planned.  I hate everything that I said in my post above.  But I don't think that I am wrong.  I pray that I am.

[LACruiser88]

3 hours ago, AZjohn said:

Tough I agree that vaccines are the only hope, I don't see that taking all of next year. Cruises will be back on by end of summer 2021. I'm personally putting my money on it 🙂

I totally agree, cruises will be back by the end of this coming summer...

[Woobstr112G]

There is no 100% fail safe answer.  It is a virus and virus’s are contagious.  As long as cruise lines take safety protocol measures coupled with a vaccine, cruising should be allowed to resume.  

[taxmantoo]

... and the identified passenger has now tested "negative" after disembarkation.  It seems that they need better tests or better trained personnel to administer them.

[Tak8]

I really think we will see cruising start sometime this summer.  Maybe not all regions of the world, but some cruising.  Keeping the faith, we will learn and make progress.

[USCcruisecrazy]

Obviously it's mostly conjecture, but I think once the passengers are being vaccinated, many poorer nations (particularly in the Caribbean) will risk accepting Cruise ships because they need the financial gains from crusie ship visitors.  Of course, in a more perfect world we will find out in the coming months that it is highly unlikely a vaccinated person can carry enough of a viral load to infect others.  It's not if you can carry the virus, but if you carry enough of the virus to contaminate someone in your presence for a specific period of time.  It will be intersting to see how this palys out.  Fingers crossed and lots of prayers that the answers are in our favor!! 

[cruzsnooze]

3 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

But remember that the vaccine does not kill the virus. It only prevents it from embedding in your system and taking hold of you.  Even after you are vaccinated, you are still a potential carrier, and thus a potential threat to others who are not vaccinated.  Vaccinated people can still carry the virus in their nasal passages and spread it to unvaccinated people while roaming around a port of call.  

 

 

We don't know that at all. The usual phase 3 was abbreviated so we know nothing about longevity or how the vaccine will act. It takes years to study the results of vaccines and how it effects it's host long term. 

[JimmyVWine]

1 hour ago, cruzsnooze said:

We don't know that at all. The usual phase 3 was abbreviated so we know nothing about longevity or how the vaccine will act. It takes years to study the results of vaccines and how it effects it's host long term. 

You are confusing long-term efficacy of the vaccine on the individual on the one hand with the ability to transmit once vaccinated on the other.  These are two entirely different things.  I think (or at least hope) that we could all agree that if a person who has been vaccinated takes a deep breath into a cloud of air that is saturated with virus molecules that said person would get some of that virus into their nasal passages.  And I would hope we could agree that when said person exhales, that person will expel molecules of the virus.  The only thing that could possibly prevent that person from spreading the virus is if the virus is killed or neutralized while in the nasal passage.  There is nothing to suggest that this happens, and it was never the intent of the vaccine to do so.  So yes, we do know that.  Breathe in virus + Expel virus = spread virus.  Please go back and re-read the content linked in Post #12 above, specifically: "In other words, a COVID-19 vaccine may benefit the individual who gets vaccinated, but the virus may still invade the body and it’s possible – if not likely – that a vaccinated person can still spread the virus to others."

Edited December 9, 2020 by JimmyVWine

[latserrof]

4 minutes ago, JimmyVWine said:

You are confusing long-term efficacy of the vaccine on the individual on the one hand with the ability to transmit once vaccinated on the other.  These are two entirely different things.  I think (or at least hope) that we could all agree that if a person who has been vaccinated takes a deep breath into a cloud of air that is saturated with virus molecules that said person would get some of that virus into their nasal passages.  And I would hope we could agree that when said person exhales, that person will expel molecules of the virus.  The only thing that could possibly prevent that person from spreading the virus is if the virus is killed or neutralized while in the nasal passage.  There is nothing to suggest that this happens, and it was never the intent of the vaccine to do so.  So yes, we do know that.  Breath in virus + Expel virus = spread virus.

And can we also agree that it makes no difference how long you are exposed to the spreader (except that the odds of contracting it may increase the longer you are exposed)?

[JimmyVWine]

Just now, latserrof said:

And can we also agree that it makes no difference how long you are exposed to the spreader (except that the odds of contracting it may increase the longer you are exposed)?

No, we cannot agree on the bolded.  It isn't "odds".  This isn't a game of chance.  Infection is, in part, dose dependent.  We still can't figure out how or why someone becomes a "super spreader", and it remains a mystery how people in the same household react differently to getting infected.  But we do know that dose and duration are factors.

[Bgwest]

7 hours ago, Greg4502 said:

 A Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. ship on a four-day pleasure trip was forced to return to port in Singapore and confine passengers to their cabins after a positive Covid-19 case was identified, showing the challenges of reviving cruise travel while the pandemic continues.

Passengers Stuck on Royal Caribbean Ship After Covid Case (msn.com)

And who are you?

And what qualifications do you possess to make such a statement?

[ontheweb]

19 minutes ago, Bgwest said:

And who are you?

And what qualifications do you possess to make such a statement?

Really?? The facts are the cruise was cut short and the next cruise cancelled out of an abundance of caution. Now it seems that it may have been a false positive, but it still cut the cruise short and had all passengers sent to their cabins. You honestly don't think that this poses a problem for the revival of the cruise industry?