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Opinion of Vaccine Required ....but if vaccine is only good for 6 or so months.....


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Please no flaming.  Sincere question.  I had the dreaded COVID even though I did everything right ( essential worker  ).  I def do NOT want it again.  I had the vaccine when it became available early this year.  So, I don't have a problem with the vaccine requirement to cruise.  When I had the vaccine, I asked how long it could be expected to last.  Six months?  Nine months? Need a booster?  The answer was they did not know.  Months later, we ( at work ) still don't know and no booster is available.    I want to book a cruise for our 30th anniversary....I see the requirement for 95% to be vaccinated.  How will this work when the vaccine may or may not last that long?  Someone could book a year in advance and the vaccine have "worn off" by the time they cruise so the vaccine passport may not mean as much as it does a few weeks after being vaccinated.    I am genuinely asking what you know about how this will be handled.   I am not debating the need for the vaccine requirement.  Like I said, I def do NOT want this again.  Thank you in advance for your kind answers.  

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I have not read or seen anything stating that the Vaccines were good for 6 months, if anything they mentioned a possible Booster shot after a year, but that was just talk and one reason not to laminate the vaccine card.

 

Fred

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I heard a doctor say a antibodies from some previous disease? SARS or bird flu .. people still had them 17 years later.

 

Vaccines havent been out a year, how would they know so soon how long antibodies last. 

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Initially, they were worried that the antibodies would only last that long.  Further studies have shown that they did not continue to decline as fast as they feared.  I think the latest prediction is about a year.  Boosters will most likely be needed because of falling immunity and variants.

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When I had my vaccine early this year, the Health Industry was saying the vaccine may last six months but may last longer.  They basically told us at work that  they were going for six months and hoped for longer and possibly a booster to come later.  Which is why I had the question.  I am only a couple weeks away from being six months already.  I hope that the antibodies do indeed last a long, long time.  

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There are some people that have been vaccinated over a year, about 30,000 people in the medical trials. None in the study group has had the virus, and the antibodies are evidently durable to this point. 

 

The response of to the two shot American vaccines is 95% effective. I think to make plans for voyages a year out might be fine.

 

I would make plans, and if a booster is required I am sure it will announced to allow time to roll up a sleeve.

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12 minutes ago, Moviela said:

There are some people that have been vaccinated over a year, about 30,000 people in the medical trials. None in the study group has had the virus, and the antibodies are evidently durable to this point. 

 

The response of to the two shot American vaccines is 95% effective. I think to make plans for voyages a year out might be fine.

 

I would make plans, and if a booster is required I am sure it will announced to allow time to roll up a sleeve.

Vaccines given longest ago are still viable and there is constant testing on that group.  Remember when the were first testing vaccines the were also hoping for at least 60 efficacy and they far exceed that.  My guess the the length of time they are effective will also far exceeded the hope they had originally.  The vaccine will certainly outlast the antibodies from having had it in the past.

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I would not let the unknown about a possible booster shot needed refrain you from booking a trip.  I currently have 1 booked for October, 2 for January, 2 for April, 1 for June, 1 for August, 1 for September and 1 for October of 2022.  If it's announced that a booster is needed, I will get it as soon as I can and I certainly will not let it effect my future travels.

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My opinion, based on my read of the currently publicly available data, is that the vaccine is effective for at least 6 months, probably a year, and possibly much longer.  Don't pay attention to what the Pharma executives say unless it's backed by data from the trials.

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5 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

I would not let the unknown about a possible booster shot needed refrain you from booking a trip.  I currently have 1 booked for October, 2 for January, 2 for April, 1 for June, 1 for August, 1 for September and 1 for October of 2022.  If it's announced that a booster is needed, I will get it as soon as I can and I certainly will not let it effect my future travels.

This.  I have a cruise booked for January 2022, Nov. 2022, and will probably throw one in in March 2022.  If booster needed I will get it.  Time to start "living" again - even with whatever restrictions they may still have in place.

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There have been cruises going on around the world during most of the past year.  So there are ways to mitigate risks.  The media and others tend to sensationalize the situations.  So it depends more on the will to make cruising work.

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11 hours ago, MrMarc said:

Initially, they were worried that the antibodies would only last that long.  Further studies have shown that they did not continue to decline as fast as they feared.  I think the latest prediction is about a year.  Boosters will most likely be needed because of falling immunity and variants.

I'm not sure they said antibodies would decline in a year. I think the booster was because of variants. 

 

Maybe there are such studies and I haven't seen them. Ok I just googled to see if what you posted is true and all I can find is they dont know. Could you post a link saying antibodies decline. 

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11 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

The vaccine is good for at least 6 months, probably at least a year and perhaps more. They aren't sure yet because the vaccine hasn't been out forever 

Right, when that 6 month estimate was first given, the vaccine even in the trial stage had only been around 6 months. People somehow took that estimate as a  limit. They also ignored the part that said as time goes by, more will be learned.

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I agree that I wouldn't let this stop you from booking a cruise. They are still following up on trial participants to see if there is a decline in immunity. When they start to see a significant decline in immunity I imagine they will begin testing boosters. Will the day come that they say "if your date vaccine was more than X long ago, it's no longer valid without a booster"... I'm sure. But I don't see that happening after 6 or 9 months at this point. They most recent "speculation" I've heard, and it's only speculation is predicting that you may need a booster in the first year. But I think this keeps getting pushed back as the phase III trial participants continue to show immunity. I think we will have plenty of notice that booster shot is coming before people stop considering your vaccine as good. 

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm not sure they said antibodies would decline in a year. I think the booster was because of variants. 

 

Maybe there are such studies and I haven't seen them. Ok I just googled to see if what you posted is true and all I can find is they dont know. Could you post a link saying antibodies decline. 

Even we got our shots in early January, there was talk of the possibility of having to get a booster.  Long before any variant started showing up.   At present it is wait and see on need.  If a booster does come out, and they are not yet available, best advice is to get it.  Better safe than sorry.  But also bear in mind that vaccines aren't 110% effective.  Even with annual flu vaccines people still get the flu.  What vaccines for COVID-19 are suppose to do if help reduce severity if contracted and to help prevent spread to others whether asymptomatic or actually having symptoms.  Adding also reduce hospitalizations and deaths in high risk categories.

Edited by crewsweeper
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1 minute ago, crewsweeper said:

Even we got our shots in early January, there was talk of the possibility of having to get a booster.  Long before any variant started showing up.   At present it is wait and see on need.  If a booster does come out, and they are not yet available, best advice is to get it.  Better safe than sorry.  But also bear in mind that vaccines aren't 110% effective.  Even with annual flu vaccines people still get the flu.  What vaccines for COVID-19 are suppose to do if help reduce severity if contracted and to help prevent spread to others whether asymptomatic or actually having symptoms.  

Pure speculation. Cc needs to invent a way so we can put a thread on ignore.

 

Just people making guesses. If so far there arent studies that say antibodies have dropped 5% or whatever ... why guess? If there was a sign antibodies dropped surely by now it would hit the news.

 

This thread title seems the op wants people to speculate if the antibodies you get drops.

 

Variants show up of course. .. but again more speculation. I did hear one new variant this is less effective against .. but this has nothing to do with the vaccine effects dropping. I'm done here. Reading guesses .. I'm in the who cares what people speculate they dont have any idea of. 

 

Back to cruising.

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we had our vaccine in February . we cruise in December.  now I have had the flu shot yearly and the got the flu really really really bad a few years ago. my doc told me that if I did not have the flu  shot I would have been hospitalized. it was bad. 

 

so as an educator and follow my doctor's orders- yes I will get the booster and my annual flu shot. 

 

I WANT TO CRUISE

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36 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Right, when that 6 month estimate was first given, the vaccine even in the trial stage had only been around 6 months. People somehow took that estimate as a  limit. They also ignored the part that said as time goes by, more will be learned.



Exactly.  They can't say the vaccine will last longer since it was only around for six months and that is all the data they had so far.  We just don't know yet.  Could be a one and done thing (although I doubt that).  Only time will tell.

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Pure speculation. Cc needs to invent a way so we can put a thread on ignore.

 

Just people making guesses. If so far there arent studies that say antibodies have dropped 5% or whatever ... why guess? If there was a sign antibodies dropped surely by now it would hit the news.

 

This thread title seems the op wants people to speculate if the antibodies you get drops.

 

Variants show up of course. .. but again more speculation. I did hear one new variant this is less effective against .. but this has nothing to do with the vaccine effects dropping. I'm done here. Reading guesses .. I'm in the who cares what people speculate they dont have any idea of. 

 

Back to cruising.

 

This is not exactly true. The truth is that the immune system and immune response are complicated in the human body, and the extent of immunity in a given person following either vaccination OR infection can be difficult to determine. It's not a simple matter of having 5% fewer antibodies. There is short-term immunity and long-term immunity. Also antibodies are not necessarily quantitative. Having them is a good indication of an immune response, but not sure it is possible to determine in advance exactly how robust that response will be.

 

Having said that, researchers are of course watching those who have already been vaccinated and those who were (confirmed) to have had COVID infection to try to gauge how protective the respective immune responses are. As the first vaccine cohorts get further and further from initial vaccination, we have received good reports that immunity is still relatively strong -- I believe the number is now up to about 8 months. Natural infection also seems to confer a long-lasting immunity. 

 

The wild card is that some people seem to develop a less robust immune response (from natural infection) than others...  For example, older people and those with weakened immune systems.

 

Variants absolutely DO have something to do with vaccine effectiveness rates. Just like the yearly flu virus. The latter is rated on how well it protects against CURRENTLY circulating variants. If the COVID vaccine doesn't protect against variants that are currently circulating, then it's not very effective, is it?

 

This is one reason why it is SO important that as many people as possible get vaccinated. Those are are not vaccinated will continue to get infected, and with each transmission of the virus from one person to another, there is a heightened chance of the virus reassorting itself in a way that creates a new variant against which there is no vaccine protection. If your immune system doesn't recognize a new variant as COVID, it won't react to it.

 

As for the OP:  I would not worry overmuch about future status vis-a-vis booking a cruise. Reports are frequently updated on effectiveness of the vaccine over time, as we get the data. I'm sure it will be all over the news if it is determined that a booster is needed at one year, two years, whatever. And if that happens, you'll just go in and get it, just as you did for the first vaccine. 

 

 

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More time will have to pass before there will be much data - large scale vaccination only really started in January - and to date the effectiveness seems to be holding up. We seem to have already passed the six month effectiveness some predicted. The whole thing is an on-going learning exercise, and our best hope would seem to be getting a significant portion of the population immunized (either by vaccine or by surviving infection) before enough (and different enough) variants emerge.    At this point, we are on the threshold of experiencing the Delta strain (apparently more contagious, and posing greater risk to younger population) - now dominant in Britain (and requiring the extension of their protocols) and at about 6% of new cases in the US.

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We currently have a D strain covid outbreak at a hospital where we live.   Several fully vaccinated people have been diagnosed with covid.  

 

The big difference is that those who have been vaccinated are presenting much lighter effects than those who have not been vaccinated.  

 

The bigger concern seems to be that the D variant is much more transmissible.  Early days yet...still so many unknowns.

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4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I'm not sure they said antibodies would decline in a year. I think the booster was because of variants. 

 

Maybe there are such studies and I haven't seen them. Ok I just googled to see if what you posted is true and all I can find is they dont know. Could you post a link saying antibodies decline. 

Here is one of them, there are various ones that show different predictions. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195?query=RP

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7 minutes ago, MrMarc said:

Here is one of them, there are various ones that show different predictions. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032195?query=RP

A prediction is not data. It's a guess. 

 

Same as people here are doing, guesses. 

 

After 3 months slight decrease but robust at that time. Those who had covid still showed ..

 

So 7 year from now where will it be, or as I said need a booster not because of declines in antibodies but some new variation..its all guesses. 

 

How much can you decide from a slight decrease? More data needed. Vaccine too new to know. 

 

Nothing there to say because of decline in antibodies we need a booster. 

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