RCL Stock

[bobmacliberty]

38 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

Patrick's carrier was the Reagan, permanently stationed in Japan. They never really leave area.

 

Were you ever able to do a tiger cruise?  I've talked with a couple of colleagues who did and they said it was very interesting.  One was on the Abe.

[taglovestocruise]

Heard there may be a new IPO, Coronavirus stock. Most experts say it is about to skyrocket.  Would be a short range play and then a good short two months later.  May be a little soon for jokes but humor is the best medicine. .... counter has started for mod deletion 

Edited March 25, 2020 by taglovestocruise

[Blizzard54]

33 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

What do you think will happen with the stock market when the senate passes the stimulus package?

I think that is already factored in with the gains the last couple days.  

I think Royal canceling another month and Alaska/New England/ Canada until July may have not been too noticed.  Now the market will go back to now usual roller coaster. 

[John&LaLa]

23 minutes ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

Were you ever able to do a tiger cruise?  I've talked with a couple of colleagues who did and they said it was very interesting.  One was on the Abe.

 

No, we never made it over to Japan. 

 

He wasn't very communicative the 4 years he was there. Bad internet, crazy work hours, deployments every 3 months, and the time zones didn't help. 

[dani negreanu]

1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

I believe he is mistaken.   Passover will be very difficult for us.  Not only are we not suppose to get together,  ours has been hosted by my brother.  He succumbed to Covid-19 last week.  Our Rabbi put up a fight and the State allowed us to have a minion.   

 

That's my belief too. In this case, sadly, prayers are not enough.

 

Pls. accept my sincere condeleances on the loss of your brother, ZAL.

 

The Passover seder will be different this year ... It can be only officiated if the family lives in the same house. Since our family lives in other cities, we''ll be alone.

 

Today, after a lot of religious people asked for a solution, as not to leave the elderly alone at this special time, only the Sephard Rabbi approved to use of "Zoom" for the seder night. Of course, the Sephard community was always more liberal in its interpretation of the religious laws.

 

The Ashkenazi -- don't allow even "Zoom".

[ed01106]

41 minutes ago, dani negreanu said:

 

Today, after a lot of religious people asked for a solution, as not to leave the elderly alone at this special time, only the Sephard Rabbi approved to use of "Zoom" for the seder night. Of course, the Sephard community was always more liberal in its interpretation of the religious laws.

 

The Ashkenazi -- don't allow even "Zoom".

Depends on the Ashkenazi, the reform and reconstruction movements are largely ashkenazi but would allow zoom.  The orthodox absolutely would not, not sure about the conservative movement.  

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

What does any of this have to do with this topic?

[dani negreanu]

13 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

What does any of this have to do with this topic?

 

It doesn't.

 

BUT, then, neither are B52... and Steinway pianos....

 

Me thinks that in those times, we're allowed to stray a bit from the stock market.

[DaKahuna]

I picked up more shares of RCL stock today at $35.00. 

That is my third purchase of stock since March 1st.

 

 

[Ocean Boy]

29 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

What does any of this have to do with this topic?

Presently 42.02. There, now we are back in track.

[Hoopster95]

I have a sincere question....

I am ignorant to the equity markets. I have several contacts who are awesome, including 2 advisers. Like all of you, I followed the stock down to $19+change the other day, and now watch it double in two days. My question is how? And why? I did not buy at any point.

 

I asked my fund managers about RCL stock 2 days ago, both say they're not in tune with travel/cruise stocks, however they both said in no way would they invest in them at this time... almost zero revenue & massive debt due this year 2020.

So help me out here. Where I'm seeing this incorrectly?

• Cruising is a non-essential luxury item product
• RCL revenue is zero for who knows how long
• RCL has a horrible balance sheet. Their debt this year alone 2020 is over $2 billion... billion!
• They just borrowed $2 billion... that will also have to paid back as well, no? If so, when?
• Most people I've spoken to (colleagues, clients who are not avid cruisers) have told me they think I'm nuts to ever cruise again. They know I'm a cruise fan... is this possibly the new normal non-cruise critic consumer sentiment?
• I read somewhere (I wish I saved the link) that a couple of major investors have stepped up to buy back millions worth of the stock in the last two days... is this to drive up the price and then double their money quickly? So, is the current price falsified?
• What happens, as we have seen yet again today, when positive tests and deaths in every state keep increasing, ports stay shut down, countries stay shut down, flights affected, getting crew back on the ships affected?
• I feel the smaller cruise lines with smaller ships may end up starting up first before the bigger ships (500-1000 person ships... they can manage tests, screening, luggage, etc)
• edit: I forgot to mention the huge amount of disposable income that is vanishing daily from layoffs, etc. Family frst.... food, rent, mortgage, gas, phone bill, TV, home entertainment.... booking a cruise for those suffering is maybe around # 382 on the list

 

So what are the positives? Many other companies who's stock have dropped in price have waaaay better outlook than RCL. They have positives like many customers still using today and expanding their use, great balance sheet with lots of cash, a leader in the market place,  Little debt... Netflix comes to mind & many other blue chips. I don't think RCL stock falls into this "positive outlook - blue chip" category as everything about it on the surface is negative as I mentioned.

 

So I sincerely ask why has the price doubled in the last 2 days?

Edited March 25, 2020 by Hoopster95

[Blizzard54]

3 hours ago, dani negreanu said:

 

That's my belief too. In this case, sadly, prayers are not enough.

 

Pls. accept my sincere condeleances on the loss of your brother, ZAL.

 

The Passover seder will be different this year ... It can be only officiated if the family lives in the same house. Since our family lives in other cities, we''ll be alone.

 

Today, after a lot of religious people asked for a solution, as not to leave the elderly alone at this special time, only the Sephard Rabbi approved to use of "Zoom" for the seder night. Of course, the Sephard community was always more liberal in its interpretation of the religious laws.

 

The Ashkenazi -- don't allow even "Zoom".

We have a large Sephardic community here.  Both have been conducting services online for a while now.  I have a nephew in Baltimore that is a Rabbi.  He set up a teleconference last night with all his cousins and me.  It was more or less a virtual Shiva.  As they all his nephews, I am the only mourner.    

[Hoopster95]

12 minutes ago, irzero said:

Growing EPS

Profitable business model

New ships and chinese market untapped.

Dividend and share buyback scheme pre crisis. 

Temporary business interruption.

 

People are betting on future returns. People sell stocks for what happened yesterday and they buy stocks for what is going on in 6, 12, 18, 24 months time. 

 

If shutdowns go further than May 31, earnings will be brutal. EPS has to suffer greatly, no?

 

Profitable business model? Perhaps long term, and only if things go back to where they were, based on overspending and leveraging everything you have in order to obtain more debt. I think this popular business model will be changing if our current issues continue into the summer. Heck, it's what many normal people do... rack up the credit card debt. Today, what do they do when layed off?

[Ocean Boy]

3 minutes ago, irzero said:

Over the next 7 years there is a ton of new ships coming on stream. The demand for cruising wont die down long term its growing.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

I suspect the recovery may be a bit slow but people have short memories. Visions of the Diamond Princess will fade over time. Hopefully, nothing comes along to replace those images any time in the near future. That ton of new ships equates to a ton of new debt.

[bobmacliberty]

Anytime that I think I have knowledge, or even just an inkling of a thought about how I may be able to predict what a stock might do, I'm already days/weeks/months behind the pros who make their living in the market.  And my thoughts are already priced into the stock.  It's easy to point out the wins...someone picked up Royal in the low 20s and has already seen it double.  How about the times where that didn't work?  Market timing is no way to make money consistently.

 

Saw an interesting article a few years ago about AI software that was being developed to analyze market news.  It would look for positive and negative words that would indicate an emotional shift in a particular stock that might be used to predict a future increase/decrease.  That either never happened, or someone is making a boatload of money with it and keeping it quiet.

 

My wealth manager already had me at about 30% in bonds and well diversified otherwise.  I'll wait on the sidelines until they decide it's time to shift back to stronger equity plays.  The Royal shareholder discount is meaningless in the big picture.

[Blizzard54]

41 minutes ago, Hoopster95 said:

 

If shutdowns go further than May 31, earnings will be brutal. EPS has to suffer greatly, no?

 

Profitable business model? Perhaps long term, and only if things go back to where they were, based on overspending and leveraging everything you have in order to obtain more debt. I think this popular business model will be changing if our current issues continue into the summer. Heck, it's what many normal people do... rack up the credit card debt. Today, what do they do when layed off?

The shutdown for Alaska, Canada and New England already goes to July 1st.

 

It may well be a slow recovery when it does happen and it may take 2 to 3 years to get back to the new normal.

One of the key factors for recovery will be how long it takes to ease the requirement for a letter of fitness for those over 70.  I am sure it will be relaxed at some point but it could be a while.  I have picked up more stock considering it a long term investment.   

[Hoopster95]

17 minutes ago, irzero said:

Unlike before the financial crisis when interest rates were 8% for corporate bonds companies can borrow at dirt cheap rates.
 

 

Thx for your thoughtful replies... appreciate it. This above statement is a positive I didn't think of.

Still, I'd rather own Berkshire Hathaway, Alphabet (Google), J&J, JPMorgan, Proctor & Gamble just to name a few (yes, all in my portfolio, and I get great dividends monthly). My one account is down 23% 2 days ago (DOW and TSE about 35% at that time) and my ultra conservative account was down 2%. I'll leave my retirement funds in the hands of a trusted professional.

 

Love your answers, however in my stock-ignorant opinion, RCL stock is nothing more than playing blackjack and hoping the cards you're dealt turn out alright.

[RoyalC]

2 hours ago, Hoopster95 said:

I have a sincere question....

I am ignorant to the equity markets. I have several contacts who are awesome, including 2 advisers. Like all of you, I followed the stock down to $19+change the other day, and now watch it double in two days. My question is how? And why? I did not buy at any point.

 

I asked my fund managers about RCL stock 2 days ago, both say they're not in tune with travel/cruise stocks, however they both said in no way would they invest in them at this time... almost zero revenue & massive debt due this year 2020.

So help me out here. Where I'm seeing this incorrectly?

• Cruising is a non-essential luxury item product
• RCL revenue is zero for who knows how long
• RCL has a horrible balance sheet. Their debt this year alone 2020 is over $2 billion... billion!
• They just borrowed $2 billion... that will also have to paid back as well, no? If so, when?
• Most people I've spoken to (colleagues, clients who are not avid cruisers) have told me they think I'm nuts to ever cruise again. They know I'm a cruise fan... is this possibly the new normal non-cruise critic consumer sentiment?
• I read somewhere (I wish I saved the link) that a couple of major investors have stepped up to buy back millions worth of the stock in the last two days... is this to drive up the price and then double their money quickly? So, is the current price falsified?
• What happens, as we have seen yet again today, when positive tests and deaths in every state keep increasing, ports stay shut down, countries stay shut down, flights affected, getting crew back on the ships affected?
• I feel the smaller cruise lines with smaller ships may end up starting up first before the bigger ships (500-1000 person ships... they can manage tests, screening, luggage, etc)
• edit: I forgot to mention the huge amount of disposable income that is vanishing daily from layoffs, etc. Family frst.... food, rent, mortgage, gas, phone bill, TV, home entertainment.... booking a cruise for those suffering is maybe around # 382 on the list

 

So what are the positives? Many other companies who's stock have dropped in price have waaaay better outlook than RCL. They have positives like many customers still using today and expanding their use, great balance sheet with lots of cash, a leader in the market place,  Little debt... Netflix comes to mind & many other blue chips. I don't think RCL stock falls into this "positive outlook - blue chip" category as everything about it on the surface is negative as I mentioned.

 

So I sincerely ask why has the price doubled in the last 2 days?

 

Much of the market trades on technical analysis. Certain indicators like Money Flow Index show when a stock is oversold. You also had a bailout announcement of travel stocks on Wednesday and that time was the bottom, at least for now. You also probably had short covering, causing violent upswings. My Brokerage sucks in that they did not show the current short interest. 

I think the investors loaned money from what I heard. The Fed is also a big disrupter of the markets. Free Capitalism does not exist. You have to be an insider in the market to know what is coming. The headwinds are real however as you point out. Also, many of the people buying are "computers" and those using other people's money to invest. It makes it a lot easier for them. 

The valuation vs past valuations (2008/2000 crashes) does not support a $42 share price. This is way worse than what happened before. Of course, now you have funny money, low interest, low fuel prices, and a lot of gambling hope. I think the market forgets that ports are closed for a long time, and good luck relying on getting a flight to a cruise that does not cancel on you and leave you missing the ship.   

   

[A&L_Ont]

7 hours ago, dani negreanu said:

 

Our Ministry of Health, who is a Rabbi (yes...😅), and can't even pronounce "Corona" said that it will be over before Passover.... which is even earlier than Easter....

Optimism never hurts.  Hopefully it will come to fruition.   

[taglovestocruise]

38 minutes ago, RoyalC said:

 

Much of the market trades on technical analysis. Certain indicators like Money Flow Index show when a stock is oversold. You also had a bailout announcement of travel stocks on Wednesday and that time was the bottom, at least for now. You also probably had short covering, causing violent upswings. My Brokerage sucks in that they did not show the current short interest. 

I think the investors loaned money from what I heard. The Fed is also a big disrupter of the markets. Free Capitalism does not exist. You have to be an insider in the market to know what is coming. The headwinds are real however as you point out. Also, many of the people buying are "computers" and those using other people's money to invest. It makes it a lot easier for them. 

The valuation vs past valuations (2008/2000 crashes) does not support a $42 share price. This is way worse than what happened before. Of course, now you have funny money, low interest, low fuel prices, and a lot of gambling hope. I think the market forgets that ports are closed for a long time, and good luck relying on getting a flight to a cruise that does not cancel on you and leave you missing the ship.   

   

Barrons moved it to a long term buy on Friday.  They gave it a $80.00 price target 18 months out.  Last Friday Tesla was $325. I waited, what a mistake. This morning I paid $525. Kicked myself for missing out on a $200 move. Next year if it hits $1000+ I will be happy. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by taglovestocruise

[RoyalC]

12 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

Barrons moved it to a long term buy on Friday.  They gave it a $80.00 price target 18 months out.  Last Friday Tesla was $325. I waited, what a mistake. This morning I paid $525. Kicked myself for missing out on a $200 move. Next year if it hits $1000+ I will be happy. 

 

Any analyst opinion is just that, with a motive behind it. Those are the last kind of people to listen to. How many upgrade at the top, or downgrade at the bottom of a move? There is a reason for that.  Good luck on TSLA.

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, irzero said:

The stock is a huge discount. It's not without risks. If it wasnt then it wouldnt be so cheap would it.

Over the next 7 years there is a ton of new ships coming on stream. The demand for cruising wont die down long term its growing.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk
 

Your logic is flawed. They are building all these ships because they felt business was going to  skyrocket and they wanted to be ready. Just a prediction, there are no guarantees they will fill them. With what’s happening now, I would suspect they backed dated all the ships they could.

With the economy the way it is, if this last a few more months, the better worry about surviving next year, not seven years down the road. You default on loans once, you probably won’t get a second chance.

[RoyalC]

4 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Your logic is flawed. They are building all these ships because they felt business was going to  skyrocket and they wanted to be ready. Just a prediction, there are no guarantees they will fill them. With what’s happening now, I would suspect they backed dated all the ships they could.

With the economy the way it is, if this last a few more months, the better worry about surviving next year, not seven years down the road. You default on loans once, you probably won’t get a second chance.

 

Bondholders hold the power. The stock is expensive too right now. Price does not equal value because it is cheaper than the $130ish it was before. That was with full ships at favorable pricing. Now they float at sea with... nothing.

[The_Big_M]

11 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

And I take it they have a pretty good reason for buying them up an it isn't to lose money.

 

Or they may like many just be thinking it's a better price than it used to be so jumping in.

 

Many founders have invested at bad times and lost money. They have no crystal ball about the future economic consequences of coronavirus.

[Ourusualbeach]

The only thing that’s certain is that in a year or so half the people on here are going to bragging saying that they called it....which half that is I couldn’t tell you.