US cruising in early January (speculation)

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Because the vaccine may not even be needed. Too late to go back now though, they have to keep up the charade.....

I think that depends on where you live. Dallas just yesterday after 6 months of shelter in place dropped to high risk. Texas had the highest number of cases last I heard. 

 

Deaths per day in dallas arent lower than 6 months ago. I guess fewer cases and less demand of testing I heard. Until deaths drop below 10 a day, here in dallas every day, and other states lift their quarantine against us coming there ... I'd get the vaccine... raises hand. I still cant do many things here. School is virtual when it starts, ..

[mek]

1 minute ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Ok, I'll just keep using logic and common sense. Gotta turn off the news.......

Logic and common sense - very scientific.  

[Sunshine3601]

I just read an article with cdc saying for governors to prepare for distribution in november.  It went onto say that if FDA Grant's emergency use even though phase 3 studies will not be completed by then that possibly 2 million does would be available in october to healthcare workers then large production for general public ready by november 30th.   You get first dose then 4 to 6 weeks later get the 2nd dose and it will take 2 to 4 weeks to be effective.  

Just like majority vaccines it will not be effective immediately.

And are you willing to get a vaccine before phase 3 testing is completed?  

This mess has become far to political with people rushing science.

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

I just read an article with cdc saying for governors to prepare for distribution in november.  It went onto say that if FDA Grant's emergency use even though phase 3 studies will not be completed by then that possibly 2 million does would be available in october to healthcare workers then large production for general public ready by november 30th.   You get first dose then 4 to 6 weeks later get the 2nd dose and it will take 2 to 4 weeks to be effective.  

Just like majority vaccines it will not be effective immediately.

And are you willing to get a vaccine before phase 3 testing is completed?  

This mess has become far to political with people rushing science.

I'm willing to get it as soon as its available yes. I think it depends on your age too, your willingness. At my age, yes I'd take it.

[Sunshine3601]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm willing to get it as soon as its available yes. I think it depends on your age too, your willingness. At my age, yes I'd take it.

I'm 50 in good health no underlying issues but still not going to be first in line for the vaccine that may not truly work.  What happens when they find out the rushed one only has say 40% effectiveness and another one that goes thru full trial studies is later released with 75% effectiveness.  Now the people who rushed for 1st vaccine cannot get the more effective one.  

I prefer to wait till they at least complete their trial studies then allow politicians to rush something thru that may not truly work.

[NthernLgts]

1 hour ago, M&A said:

If a vaccine is approved by November, then it has to be manufactured/produced.  

In this case, no.  As I understand it the vaccines that are currently going through US trials are also going into production at the same time in the event those drugs do pass the trials.  It’s a big gamble, but it is one of the things that is different with this vaccine compared to others.

[Mapleleafforever]

17 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I think that depends on where you live. Dallas just yesterday after 6 months of shelter in place dropped to high risk. Texas had the highest number of cases last I heard. 

 

Deaths per day in dallas arent lower than 6 months ago. I guess fewer cases and less demand of testing I heard. Until deaths drop below 10 a day, here in dallas every day, and other states lift their quarantine against us coming there ... I'd get the vaccine... raises hand. I still cant do many things here. School is virtual when it starts, ..

Of course it's in Texas now, the disease travels. How's New York been lately? 

 

Please look at the dates of infections and deaths. Dallas was almost none while New York was in the thick of it (April). Now the reverse is happening. Numbers will go down in Dallas as well....naturally. 

[Mapleleafforever]

21 minutes ago, mek said:

Logic and common sense - very scientific.  

More scientific than emotion, wouldn't you agree? 

[Sunshine3601]

My DH was patient # 11 in a test study that saved his life 4 years ago.    We agreed to be part of the study as it was a life and death situation.   It was scary and not all patients involved in the first round (20 patients) were as fortunate.  I think 5 or 6 out of 20 had died and a couple had severe complications.

But that study went on for another 2 years and as it went on their positive results drastically improved.

It takes time to get right.  

[Mapleleafforever]

25 minutes ago, mek said:

If it goes through phase 3 clinical trials then it has gone through all of the steps other vaccines have gone through, just in a shorter amount of time.

Personally I will take a vaccine now and worry about any long term side effects down the road - many believe there are long term side effect to covid, so which is worse - not taking a vaccine and continue living the way we are now or getting back to normal, saving lives and businesses?

Before taking a vaccine that may or may not be needed and may or may not be safe (short and long term) wouldn't you be interested in an antibody test to see if you're already immune? 

[bobmacliberty]

There's also the other side of the equation to consider. What countries will allow cruise ships from the US to port?  The CDC does not control the destination countries and they may not be as willing to initially trust a rushed vaccine.

[twangster]

A welcome milestone as we progress in baby steps towards a restart of cruising.  

[firefly333]

The vaccine coming out first takes 2 doses. Would have to get it super early for 2nd dose to take hold before February or March. I think I heard takes 3 or 4 weeks for vaccine to be effective. 

[A&L_Ont]

30 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

It's probably even lower as more people educate themselves. 

 

As people "educate" themselves it feels as though the collective world has lost a lot of intelligence. 

 

21 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

The US is doing it alone. 

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-says-it-won-t-join-global-effort-to-find-covid-19-vaccine-1.5088352

 

If they can't/don't get the people to vaccinate, it might be for nothing.

 

5 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

I just read an article with cdc saying for governors to prepare for distribution in november.  It went onto say that if FDA Grant's emergency use even though phase 3 studies will not be completed by then that possibly 2 million does would be available in october to healthcare workers then large production for general public ready by november 30th.   You get first dose then 4 to 6 weeks later get the 2nd dose and it will take 2 to 4 weeks to be effective.  

Just like majority vaccines it will not be effective immediately.

And are you willing to get a vaccine before phase 3 testing is completed?  

This mess has become far to political with people rushing science.

 

If what I highlighted in red is accurate, and vaccinations are to be mandated to cruise, one would need 10 weeks to be considered immune.  To have enough "regular people" vaccinated for ships too cruise it will take some period of time to fill a ship or two just for RC.  November 1st would equate to a possible mid-january sail date at earliest.  We all know essential workers will be the first to get it.

 

The cruise lines would also want to vaccinate their employees prior to guests arriving.  Consider it 10 weeks to go through the process as well, either with them being on the ship or at their home.  It would be much easier to be done on the ship.  They can get the vaccine to the ship, as well the needed medical supplies. 

 

I envision crew being nose swabbed all along their way to the ship.  Once on board they get vaccinated for the 10 week process, as well as being swabbed at the same time. Once everyone has finished being vaccinated and tested Covid free after over a two week process, they can then consider welcoming guests.  That is if the CDC approves the process.

 

IMO the cruise lines will be prepared to welcome guests before there are enough guests to sail on the ships.

[Sunshine3601]

49 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

The US is doing it alone. 

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-says-it-won-t-join-global-effort-to-find-covid-19-vaccine-1.5088352

The us has contributed over $3 billion for at least 6 different vaccine studies.  I believe the biggest funding is 1.2B to astra zeneca who is partnered with oxford university.    

We are not in this alone!

[bouhunter]

1 hour ago, bigrednole said:

They can easily shut you out of everything if you are not vaccinated. No school, no access to a public facility like grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Your kids won't be able to attend school without it. Elderly cannot be in a nursing home without it. Hospitals and doctors can ban from entering and make your only option a non-vaccination facility. 

 

So, if the US government says you will not have access to almost anything without an ID card showing you are vaccinated, what do you think will happen?

Good grief.  No access to a grocery store without a vaccine card?  That is just too funny.  It won't come to that and it's a ridiculous thought.  But in answer to your question what would happen?  Prepare for war in the streets and be well armed.

[firefly333]

18 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

I'm 50 in good health no underlying issues but still not going to be first in line for the vaccine that may not truly work.  What happens when they find out the rushed one only has say 40% effectiveness and another one that goes thru full trial studies is later released with 75% effectiveness.  Now the people who rushed for 1st vaccine cannot get the more effective one.  

I prefer to wait till they at least complete their trial studies then allow politicians to rush something thru that may not truly work.

I'll turn 70 before next scheduled cruise. As I said age might matter. A lot more risk for a 70 year old to get it than age 50. 

[Sunshine3601]

4 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

As people "educate" themselves it feels as though the collective world has lost a lot of intelligence. 

 

 

If they can't/don't get the people to vaccinate, it might be for nothing.

 

 

If what I highlighted in red is accurate, and vaccinations are to be mandated to cruise, one would need 10 weeks to be considered immune.  To have enough "regular people" vaccinated for ships too cruise it will take some period of time to fill a ship or two just for RC.  November 1st would equate to a possible mid-january sail date at earliest.  We all know essential workers will be the first to get it.

 

The cruise lines would also want to vaccinate their employees prior to guests arriving.  Consider it 10 weeks to go through the process as well, either with them being on the ship or at their home.  It would be much easier to be done on the ship.  They can get the vaccine to the ship, as well the needed medical supplies. 

 

I envision crew being nose swabbed all along their way to the ship.  Once on board they get vaccinated for the 10 week process, as well as being swabbed at the same time. Once everyone has finished being vaccinated and tested Covid free after over a two week process, they can then consider welcoming guests.  That is if the CDC approves the process.

 

IMO the cruise lines will be prepared to welcome guests before there are enough guests to sail on the ships.

Exactly and that is if we all can get inline to get the vaccine week #1.  Imagine the mess it will be for millions to get the vaccine.  We couldn't testing for general population for how long?  People would spend all day in line and walk away without getting tested.

Then after 10 weeks we try a test to see if the vaccine is working....

[Sunshine3601]

23 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'll turn 70 before next scheduled cruise. As I said age might matter. A lot more risk for a 70 year old to get it than age 50. 

The risk factor is same on contracting the virus for all ages.  Unfortunately the older you are the worse it is if you do contract it.   Stay safe I'm confident we will all get thru and learn to live with it like other viruses.  Stay well and hopefully we will all be sailing in near future!!

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, Sunshine3601 said:

The risk factor is same on contracting the virus for all ages.  Unfortunately the older you are the worse it is if you do contract it.   Stay safe I'm confident we will all get thru and learn to live with it like other viruses.  Stay well and hopefully we will all be sailing in near future!!

Today is my dads 102 birthday and mom is 94. They both are scared of it big time. For them even scarier. Though just getting out to get a vaccine worrisome. They are still shelter in place. My dad doesnt even want me too close to him. But we will get together today to celebrate his birthday. 

 

Like I said age is a factor how you view this virus. My dad is scared to death of it .......with good reason. 

 

I dont have the huge risk they have, hence I'm planning on cruising. 

[nascarcruiser]

1 hour ago, mek said:

If you want access to living the way life used to be then get a vaccine - it's that simple. There are already vaccine requirements on many types of jobs and schools, why is should this be any different?

 

The problem with that is there could be underlying conditions that prevent someone from taking the initial vaccine.   Whatever vaccine they come up with, while it passes the trials may need to be tweaked so that everyone can take the vaccine.   The thing is about making it mandatory is that like the flu vaccine there will be those who will not want to take it.  And are public places really going to enforce you provide documentation that you have taken the vaccine? Even if they do we all know documentation can be forged/falsified. 

[not-enough-cruising]

5 hours ago, bigrednole said:

With the CDC announcement that millions of vaccines will be ready at the end of October or early November, it only means that the government will have to open up the country. They cannot be two-faced about the vaccine. They can't say the emergency workers, people in nursing homes, and other high risk people are required to take it then not open the country once enough doses are available for the general population. At $50-$60 a pop for a vaccine the pharmaceutical didn't pay a penny for, they surely can ramp up production at all manufacturing plants in the matter of weeks to have 500M doses ready in a month. The CDC will be pushed to open ports with the requirement to sail is having the vaccine. It will be as simple as that. Without the vaccine, you won't be able to board a ship or leave the country. 

 

Doing the simple math:

$1.5B in taxpayer money to develop (no cost to the pharma)

500M doses @ $60 each ($30B in revenue)

 

Even if they paid $10B to the manufacturers to get 500M doses, the pharma still makes $20B profit.

I really don't think you have ay idea how the real world works, and the numbers quoted here are pure fantasy.

[lovescats5]

And yet, no one vaccine will work for everyone.  And for someone to make it mandatory to get any vaccine to do something is taking away my right to make my own decisions. 

[John&LaLa]

7 minutes ago, lovescats5 said:

And yet, no one vaccine will work for everyone.  And for someone to make it mandatory to get any vaccine to do something is taking away my right to make my own decisions. 

 

But is cruising a right, or an optional recreational activity

[mek]

2 hours ago, Mapleleafforever said:

More scientific than emotion, wouldn't you agree? 

No it's not and I think it's pretty apparent you are letting your emotions influence what you call logic and common sense.