US cruising in early January (speculation)

[MommaBear55]

3 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

To keep this simple.... The basic vaccine "structure"  and manufacturing process is the same every year. The different flu virus strains are characterized by their surface protein structure. These function as antigens. Antigens trigger responses from immune systems to greater or lesser degrees depending on many factors. The ones that are used in the vaccine are hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. So you take inactivated (killed) or attenuated (modified live) viron particles of the strain of flu that they think is going to be circulated around an put them into the vaccine. Injecting these into the body hopefully induces an immune response to develop antibodies that will neutralize matching flu virus (antigen) that attempts to make a home for itself inside of your body.

 

I hope that made sense and coming from a non-immunologist.

Great explanation. The other part of how the flu vaccine is developed is that every year is a panel of scientists looks at the flu strains that develop in Asia during their next flu wave that generally starts after the first of he year, and the panel modeld the virus cocktail on those strain. A few years ago a novel flu strain that was totally unanticipated came out of Australia, so was not in the flu mix that year, leading to a high number of flu cases and fatalities that  year. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

5 hours ago, bobmacliberty said:

 

Agreed that entertaining customers will be greatly reduced.  That's not what I'm talking about.  I'm talking about the attitude of me having a problem with your system that is impacting my business and wanting you standing next to me working to get it fixed.  Many little problems can certainly be addressed remotely but for bigger problems, I believe that many customers will still want a warm body in their shop.

Oh I had those wonderful meetings too. Lol

[mek]

23 hours ago, Ocean Boy said:

As previously stated, that is your prerogative. And for the record, I am far from an anti vaxxer.

I wasn't implying you are.

[gatour]

23 hours ago, MommaBear55 said:

Great explanation. The other part of how the flu vaccine is developed is that every year is a panel of scientists looks at the flu strains that develop in Asia during their next flu wave that generally starts after the first of he year, and the panel modeld the virus cocktail on those strain. A few years ago a novel flu strain that was totally unanticipated came out of Australia, so was not in the flu mix that year, leading to a high number of flu cases and fatalities that  year. 

From my understanding, there are three basic strains and as you said their parts of the world that get the first (through no fault of their health care system).  Based on these early reports the scientists decide which one will most prevalent, so vaccine doses can be produced in a timely manner for the US market.  From my understanding the three basic strains may mutate but not by drastic amount so if even the correct vaccine was picked for that year it will be at least partially effective.

 

I thought I remembered that there was a fourth strain that emerged, that caught the scientist by surprised. 

[Ocean Boy]

9 minutes ago, gatour said:

From my understanding, there are three basic strains and as you said their parts of the world that get the first (through no fault of their health care system).  Based on these early reports the scientists decide which one will most prevalent, so vaccine doses can be produced in a timely manner for the US market.  From my understanding the three basic strains may mutate but not by drastic amount so if even the correct vaccine was picked for that year it will be at least partially effective.

 

I thought I remembered that there was a fourth strain that emerged, that caught the scientist by surprised. 

I think you are referring to Inflenza types A B C and D.  A and B are typically responsible for yearly flu infections. There are different strains within the groups.

[gatour]

On 9/3/2020 at 12:39 PM, John&LaLa said:

 

It might depend on how they wish to market it.

 

If they can establish that all crew and passengers are vaccinated, that may aleve the concerns of people who are undecided.

 

As far as the legality of that, I have no idea

My guess cruise lines denying boarding to people not having vaccination proof would be legal as long as it doesn't violate Civil Right laws (sex, race, etc).  This is private company so they can set the rules.

 

An example of this is that for cruises departing from US ports, the cruise lines will not serve drinks (or even allow them to buy the drink packages) to people under the age of 21 even in international waters.  There are no international treaties/agreements that require RCCL, Carnival to do this.

 

Certain bars require people to be above a certain age before entering.  Refusal to show a valid ID to prove your age, is grounds to deny entry.  Even if state laws don't require this (of course many state laws require that bars verify the age of someone attempting to actually purchase an alcoholic drink, but not to actually enter the establishment)

[LXA350]

A reliable Vacination wil likely not be available before mid next year earliest, even per comments made by the WHO. Hence a plan is needed for cruises to commence under the current circumstances as we will be living with the Virus for the next 1-2 years at least. Even once a reliable vaccination will come out on the market it will take time until a large amount of populations had the vaccine etc, hence it will not disapear from one day to another. Hence it's important to find ways for now to live with the virus which involves certain restrictions and compromises including wearing masks in public spaces etc.

[firefly333]

4 minutes ago, LXA350 said:

A reliable Vacination wil likely not be available before mid next year earliest, even per comments made by the WHO. Hence a plan is needed for cruises to commence under the current circumstances as we will be living with the Virus for the next 1-2 years at least. Even once a reliable vaccination will come out on the market it will take time until a large amount of populations had the vaccine etc, hence it will not disapear from one day to another. Hence it's important to find ways for now to live with the virus which involves certain restrictions and compromises including wearing masks in public spaces etc.

Why is Johnson and Johnson saying they will have doses ready probably this November then? And Moderna says early 2021.  You state things from WHO as facts ignoring what companies say making the vaccines. You dont say widespread available or other things why you believe mid 2021. 

 

I'd probably sign up if available here. Lots of trials here so wouldnt surprise me more doses available here, but idk. At least I admit it. 

 

WHO isn't credible source imo as they also didnt know it was spread person to person when others knew mid January. Some of us are likely to have the vaccine before you say it will be available

[TheMastodon]

6 hours ago, LXA350 said:

A reliable Vacination wil likely not be available before mid next year earliest, even per comments made by the WHO. Hence a plan is needed for cruises to commence under the current circumstances as we will be living with the Virus for the next 1-2 years at least. Even once a reliable vaccination will come out on the market it will take time until a large amount of populations had the vaccine etc, hence it will not disapear from one day to another. Hence it's important to find ways for now to live with the virus which involves certain restrictions and compromises including wearing masks in public spaces etc.

I think it’ll be here rest of our lives!

[LXA350]

15 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Why is Johnson and Johnson saying they will have doses ready probably this November then? And Moderna says early 2021.  You state things from WHO as facts ignoring what companies say making the vaccines. You dont say widespread available or other things why you believe mid 2021. 

 

I'd probably sign up if available here. Lots of trials here so wouldnt surprise me more doses available here, but idk. At least I admit it. 

 

WHO isn't credible source imo as they also didnt know it was spread person to person when others knew mid January. Some of us are likely to have the vaccine before you say it will be available

 

Normally it take 9 or 10 years to develop a effective vaccination for some viruses, for others nothing could be found till date. Hence, how is it realistically possible that suddenly this time within a year or less something was developed that also is really effective. You are missing the long term studies etc. Are more risks involved with having the vaccination than being exposed to catch COVID, will the vaccination really help and then for how long will you be imune. There are so many open questions, and unfortunately a lot of money and politics involved with this. November 1st, what a "fake" joke.

[Ocean Boy]

17 minutes ago, LXA350 said:

 

Normally it take 9 or 10 years to develop a effective vaccination for some viruses, for others nothing could be found till date. Hence, how is it realistically possible that suddenly this time within a year or less something was developed that also is really effective. You are missing the long term studies etc. Are more risks involved with having the vaccination than being exposed to catch COVID, will the vaccination really help and then for how long will you be imune. There are so many open questions, and unfortunately a lot of money and politics involved with this. November 1st, what a "fake" joke.

I keep saying this over and over on these boards and some people just don't, or don't want, to understand it. Everyone is entitled to get whatever vaccine comes out if they want it but no one should every be coerced or forced into getting it. But just as some say that you are selfish if you don't wear a mask, those same people will accuse you of being selfish and self centered if you won't get this forthcoming foreign substance injected into your body. This mindset truly amazes me. But just as I have a very healthy respect for the microbial world, I have just as large a respect for chemicals that I prescribe, and advise, for people to but into their bodies.

 

People seem to already have their minds made up on their various viewpoints and that is fine even though an effective vaccine for viruses within the Corona family has proven to be rather elusive. I've stopped writing much about it as I don't come to a cruise website to practice medicine. I get up and go to the office to do that every day. So I think I will just leave it at that.

[Ocean Boy]

9 hours ago, TheMastodon said:

I think it’ll be here rest of our lives!

Correct. It will, at times, be within the mix of pathogens that we are all constantly bombarded with every day. There will always be some who will have a bad outcome from their various exposures, those who will become ill and recover, and those who will never know that they were even exposed just like what happens with the pathogens that we are exposed to everyday. There is a huge microbial world that we share this planet with and even though we may form time to time manage to eradicate some of its members it is here to stay.

[firefly333]

At my age I'll get the vaccine. Even if its yearly like the flu vaccine. I'd rather have it than not have it.

 

Agree it's a choice, but one I'll make based on my age. If it's like testing here, it will be available to over 60 before the rest of population. I've even thought of volunteering for a study here, but dont want placebo.

[PhillyFan33579]

Everything I have read about the numerous vaccines being developed around the world is a COVID-19 vaccine will be more like a flu vaccine...i.e. it will reduce the chances of catching the virus and if you do catch the virus, your symptoms will likely not be as bad. Maybe I am missing something, but I haven’t heard about any vaccine being developed that will eradicate this virus. 

[livingonthebeach]

1 hour ago, LXA350 said:

Normally it take 9 or 10 years to develop a effective vaccination for some viruses....

 

True, however what's different about this vaccine as opposed to past vaccines is that there is an enormous global effort put worth in its development.  Since this pandemic has hit the entire world harder than any other, there has never been such a concerted effort involving multiple governments, organizations and private firms utilizing billions of dollars.  The greatest scientific minds are at work in combination with unlimited funds vying for a return on investment unprecedented in history.  Many pharmaceutical companies are at the last stage of trials. 

 

I read that Fauci has said that he felt good about the projected timetable and vaccine makers testified before the US Congress that the sped-up process would in no way compromise the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine.  Pfizer has signed a 1.95 billion contract to manufacture and distribute one hundred million doses by the end of 2020. 

 

Not saying that it's right or wrong or good or bad to speed up the process, just pointing out the difference in the development of the Covid-19 vaccine versus those of the past, many of which like the SARS virus, disappeared before a vaccine could even be produced. 

[TheMastodon]

2 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Everything I have read about the numerous vaccines being developed around the world is a COVID-19 vaccine will be more like a flu vaccine...i.e. it will reduce the chances of catching the virus and if you do catch the virus, your symptoms will likely not be as bad. Maybe I am missing something, but I haven’t heard about any vaccine being developed that will eradicate this virus. 

Thats also what I have read/understand.  Wouldn’t be an issue if it wasn’t so contagious - but it is.  MERS/SARS are still around in parts of the world but aren’t nearly as contagious.  And the patients become contagious once they are sick unlike Rona19 where you are contagious from the get go.  I think the general population doesn’t understand that either though - we will be living with it.

[TheMastodon]

1 hour ago, LXA350 said:

 

Normally it take 9 or 10 years to develop a effective vaccination for some viruses, for others nothing could be found till date. Hence, how is it realistically possible that suddenly this time within a year or less something was developed that also is really effective. You are missing the long term studies etc. Are more risks involved with having the vaccination than being exposed to catch COVID, will the vaccination really help and then for how long will you be imune. There are so many open questions, and unfortunately a lot of money and politics involved with this. November 1st, what a "fake" joke.

Yeah for SOME virus’s.  Do you ever think hey maybe we got lucky and this one was just easier to figure out? 
 

Multiple nations have a vax that has yielded positive results - wouldn’t be doing phase3 if it didn’t show promise.  I’m over the pessimism - something tells me if HRC was in office a lot of you would feel diff about our situation.  Sad but true.  

Edited September 6, 2020 by TheMastodon

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

True, however what's different about this vaccine as opposed to past vaccines is that there is an enormous global effort put worth in its development.  Since this pandemic has hit the entire world harder than any other, there has never been such a concerted effort involving multiple governments, organizations and private firms utilizing billions of dollars.  The greatest scientific minds are at work in combination with unlimited funds vying for a return on investment unprecedented in history.  Many pharmaceutical companies are at the last stage of trials. 

 

I read that Fauci has said that he felt good about the projected timetable and vaccine makers testified before the US Congress that the sped-up process would in no way compromise the safety and effectiveness of a vaccine.  Pfizer has signed a 1.95 billion contract to manufacture and distribute one hundred million doses by the end of 2020. 

 

Not saying that it's right or wrong or good or bad to speed up the process, just pointing out the difference in the development of the Covid-19 vaccine versus those of the past, many of which like the SARS virus, disappeared before a vaccine could even be produced. 

The moment you mentioned Fauci; your post lost all credibility 

[livingonthebeach]

6 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

The moment you mentioned Fauci; your post lost all credibility 

Whether you like him, agree with him or not, the man is one of the top infectious disease experts in the Country.  Fauci has served and advised six presidents In the past and is and has remained apolitical. 

[not-enough-cruising]

16 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Whether you like him, agree with him or not, the man is one of the top infectious disease experts in the Country.  Fauci has served and advised six presidents In the past and is and has remained apolitical. 

He has proven throughout this to be a pawn, as a medical professional myself the way he has constantly contradicted himself has destroyed all credibility he has (especially within the medical community) 

[Oxo]

35 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

He has proven throughout this to be a pawn, as a medical professional myself the way he has constantly contradicted himself has destroyed all credibility he has (especially within the medical community) 

Who should we believe? They all contradicted themselves. 

[livingonthebeach]

33 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

He has proven throughout this to be a pawn, as a medical professional myself the way he has constantly contradicted himself has destroyed all credibility he has (especially within the medical community) 

 

Interesting to know how the medical community thinks.  Could some of the contradictions stem from the fact that at the beginning very little was known about the novel virus and as time progressed and more knowledge obtained, facts and opinions changed?

[livingonthebeach]

2 hours ago, TheMastodon said:

....MERS/SARS are still around in parts of the world....

 

According to the NIH, there are no cases of SARS and very few of MERS left. 

 

"SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003, though cases subsequently were tracked to November 2002. SARS quickly spread to 26 countries before being contained after about four months. More than 8,000 people fell ill from SARS and 774 died. Since 2004, there have been no reported SARS cases."

 

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/diseases-conditions/covid-19 

[not-enough-cruising]

4 minutes ago, Oxo said:

Who should we believe? They all contradicted themselves. 

 

3 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Interesting to know how the medical community thinks.  Could some of the contradictions stem from the fact that at the beginning very little was known about the novel virus and as time progressed and more knowledge obtained, facts and opinions changed?

You should believe people that deal with these things on a daily basis, not some political tool sitting in an office creating a narrative to suit a situation. Fighting a virus (and virology as a whole) is nothing new; we have been doing it for centuries, the model is out there for how to deal with it, and Fauci did not follow his own playbook. 

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, not-enough-cruising said:

 

You should believe people that deal with these things on a daily basis, not some political tool sitting in an office creating a narrative to suit a situation. Fighting a virus (and virology as a whole) is nothing new; we have been doing it for centuries, the model is out there for how to deal with it, and Fauci did not follow his own playbook. 

 

I'm very open minded -- who should we believe and why?  Does the entire medical community have the same knowledge and opinions and are all of those different from Fauci's?