For those that think Carnival is going OOB....cruise lines are top S&P 500 movers

[pc_load_letter]

Sooooooo tired of people thinking Carvial (and others) could go out of business.

 

As of this morning...Carnival Corp, Royal, and NCL are all in the top 5 on S&P 500 top movers. And that's them going UP, not down.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

 

Edited September 25, 2020 by pc_load_letter

[latserrof]

One day's activity is virtually meaningless. CCL is up one day, down the next. CCL was at 25 back in June, today it's 14, same as it was in August and in May.  And just because people are buying and selling the stock doesn't mean the company is healthy, it's just investors riding the roller coaster. I'm a stockholder, and CCL is on very thin ice. Ditto the other cruise lines. And when the CDC renews the no-sail order, the stocks will likely be in the top-movers again, but heading south. Again.

Edited September 25, 2020 by latserrof

[firefly333]

It was what 17 just last week and dropped and dropped. Hard to get excited wow today back to 14. 

[evandbob]

I'm not sure what the point is by the OP's posting of a daily stock price.  The overall health (or lack of) of company is determined by myriad factors, included, but not limited to debt load, earnings history and forecast.

 

With cruise lines today, how to weather the business' lack of earnings during cruising cessation is now their focal point.  Can a line hold on another month, 3 months, 6 months or longer without having their ships sail?  They have no real income, but they do have ongoing costs and debt to manage. Can they survive?  We shall see. 

[latserrof]

And if they do survive, they will be shadows of their former selves and will still face lots of challenges.

[evandbob]

They are plenty of short sellers and hedgers who accelerate stock trading volume on the hopes that the price will go down, not up.

[PhillyFan33579]

1 hour ago, pc_load_letter said:

Sooooooo tired of people thinking Carvial (and others) could go out of business.

 

As of this morning...Carnival Corp, Royal, and NCL are all in the top 5 on S&P 500 top movers. And that's them going UP, not down.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

 

I haven’t heard or read anything about Carnival, or other major cruise lines, going out of business. Now if this country is still under a no sail order next year at this time, things might be different. But hopefully the CDC is going to allow cruising to resume from US ports soon. Across the country most things are open to some degree, although this varies from location to location. But I see no reason why cruises can’t resume from US ports as long as certain protocols are implemented and followed. Of course things may change drastically across the country depending on the election results in November, but this site frowns on political discussions, even though politics has had a major impact on the cruise industry being grounded in the US. 

[skridge]

2 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

Sooooooo tired of people thinking Carvial (and others) could go out of business.

 

As of this morning...Carnival Corp, Royal, and NCL are all in the top 5 on S&P 500 top movers. And that's them going UP, not down.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

 

I'm tired of people saying it is impossible for Carnival to go out of business.  I am also tired of people trying to say because you think it is a real possibility for Carnival to go out of business that somehow makes you doom and gloom.  It just makes you a realistic thinker.  I want very much for Carnival to stay in business so my family can have many more wonderful times on cruises in the future.  That is not going to stop me from using my brain and realizing that if a company that survives solely on revenue coming in from cruising doesn't start cruising soon, other than a few ships in Europe, that it isn't a possibility they they go bankrupt.  

[Nic6318]

3 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

Sooooooo tired of people thinking Carvial (and others) could go out of business.

 

As of this morning...Carnival Corp, Royal, and NCL are all in the top 5 on S&P 500 top movers. And that's them going UP, not down.

 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/market-movers/s&p_500

 

 

Hi 

 

Are you thinking that because a given company's share price is going up today it can't go broke tomorrow?

 

As long as you understand that a company (any company) needs to make a profit to stay in business. All these companies are not only not making a profit but are losing money every day, and have been for quite a while now. Given the fact that people are still asking questions on sites like this "will my Dec. cruise be cancelled?", indicates nobody really know when they might start operating again. 

 

The question has always been how long can they survive. You do understand, if these companies fail (seek creditor protection) it isn't the end of cruising. It just means they will restructure, most of the people they owe money to will receive little, as well as shareholders, and in time they will restart operations. The problem for us gung ho cruisers is that, we don't know when that will be.  Most other companies that were losing a billion $'s a month, now down to 1/2B a month would have shut their doors a long time ago. It is just that with so much at stake many people are willing to take the risk. The risk has always been and still is, that if this virus isn't under control and people can't safely travel internationally, cruising won't restart. 

[shof515]

its crazy how CCL stock used to trade between 50-60 dollars last year and now it is like 15-20 dollars

[PhillyFan33579]

2 minutes ago, shof515 said:

its crazy how CCL stock used to trade between 50-60 dollars last year and now it is like 15-20 dollars

Not crazy at all in light of everything going on. The only thing possibly crazy in my book is the stock price isn’t even lower. 

[Don Kehote]

3 hours ago, evandbob said:

They are plenty of short sellers and hedgers who accelerate stock trading volume on the hopes that the price will go down, not up.

And some of them prowl around here.

[Bgcruising]

It lost as much yesterday.  They'll be ok though, I'm betting on it.

[pc_load_letter]

4 hours ago, latserrof said:

One day's activity is virtually meaningless.

 

They're up almost 30% from six months ago genius.

Edited September 25, 2020 by pc_load_letter

[pc_load_letter]

1 hour ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Not crazy at all in light of everything going on. The only thing possibly crazy in my book is the stock price isn’t even lower. 

 

It was as low as 7 not to long ago. If you purchased then, you've doubled your money. Like I said above, it's gained 30% in the last six months.

 

Get the cruises going without issue and you will see them hit 30 by February.

[kona_wahine]

I’ve been thinking about buying the 100 shares but I’m afraid that might be the nail in their coffin. Lol

[tidecat]

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent!

[hurricane0226]

Maybe it is time to look at some carnival stock, Florida is going to stage 3 now, bars and restaurants   can

now have 100% occupancy as if today,

[Nic6318]

1 hour ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

It was as low as 7 not to long ago. If you purchased then, you've doubled your money. Like I said above, it's gained 30% in the last six months.

 

Get the cruises going without issue and you will see them hit 30 by February.

 

Hi

That's the whole point. Nobody,  including you, even knows if cruises will start before Feb. 

 

If you look back a few months on this site, you will see many posters who were very confident that their Aug. (as well as Jul., Sep., Oct.) cruises would sail. Are you as confident as they were? People were making lots of money buying and selling the company shares during those months as well.

 

The bottom line... if they don't start, they can go broke. When they do start again, whoever is still standing will possibly have a viable business model. There will be a reassessment of the industry, once it restarts, not before. Not only do we not know when they might start up, but we also don't know anything about what extra costs will be involved (without even looking at debt). We don't know how the customers will respond. We don't know what type of competition the cruise lines will face. Land based vacation packages are happening now. If the price isn't just right and customers don't like the way restrictions affect the cruise experience, even if they are able to operate, they may not be competitive any more. 

 

You said it, "get cruises going without issue and you will see them hit 30 by Feb." Please explain to me how the situation has improved since Mar., to indicated that this could actually happen, sometime in the near future. This will take years to play out, just like all the other potential bankruptcies forecast around the world.   

[pc_load_letter]

37 minutes ago, Nic6318 said:

 

Hi

That's the whole point. Nobody,  including you, even knows if cruises will start before Feb. 

 

If you look back a few months on this site, you will see many posters who were very confident that their Aug. (as well as Jul., Sep., Oct.) cruises would sail. Are you as confident as they were? People were making lots of money buying and selling the company shares during those months as well.

 

The bottom line... if they don't start, they can go broke. When they do start again, whoever is still standing will possibly have a viable business model. There will be a reassessment of the industry, once it restarts, not before. Not only do we not know when they might start up, but we also don't know anything about what extra costs will be involved (without even looking at debt). We don't know how the customers will respond. We don't know what type of competition the cruise lines will face. Land based vacation packages are happening now. If the price isn't just right and customers don't like the way restrictions affect the cruise experience, even if they are able to operate, they may not be competitive any more. 

 

You said it, "get cruises going without issue and you will see them hit 30 by Feb." Please explain to me how the situation has improved since Mar., to indicated that this could actually happen, sometime in the near future. This will take years to play out, just like all the other potential bankruptcies forecast around the world.   

 

The industry has already started. It has shown that cruises can happen safely.

 

Our problem is one of government, not the cruise industry. Planes are flying, Disneyland and hotels are open (as you said). Resorts here in southern CA are all open. We all realize we need the CDC to take off the no sail order then those of you in business friendly climates, FL, TX, etc, will probably get your cruises. Our governor here wants to keep blaming the feds and keep things closed and use bad budgets as an excuse to raises taxes (look our proposition 15). Not sure when we will see cruises from California again.

[jerseyjjs]

Carnival just lost 1.7 BILLION in the 3rd quarter alone.  Which was about 25% of Carnival corp. bank.  4 of their operable ships are beached in Aliagra waiting to be dismantled and sold for scrap.   I understand people's love for cruising but just because you WANT something to be a certain way doesn't mean it's destined to come true.   One day's bounce in the stock market isn't something to gleam about.

[matymil]

9 hours ago, latserrof said:

One day's activity is virtually meaningless. CCL is up one day, down the next. CCL was at 25 back in June, today it's 14, same as it was in August and in May.  And just because people are buying and selling the stock doesn't mean the company is healthy, it's just investors riding the roller coaster. I'm a stockholder, and CCL is on very thin ice. Ditto the other cruise lines. And when the CDC renews the no-sail order, the stocks will likely be in the top-movers again, but heading south. Again.

Yep....im a shareholder as well and I could not agree more

[BlerkOne]

I wonder if I would trust cruise advice found on a financial internet board?

[hurricane0226]

good one

[Roz]

When we come out of this (and we will) there will still be a demand for all types of vacations, whether it be cruises, all inclusives,  casino resorts, amusement parks, camping, rail trips,  etc.   Some cruise lines may fall by the wayside or be bought out or merged with others, and the cruise experience may be somewhat different.  There are always investors looking for opportunities, and the pent up demand for cruising may be one of them.  I'm optimistic.