Will Celebrity really start back in August?

[sheffield]

Which country is going to accept a ship if patients develop the virus? Realistically it has to happen, nowhere is free of the virus. I don’t understand why people are desperate to start cruising when the numbers fluctuate in some countries and rise dramatically in others. Who would want someone from the US or the UK on a boat? I’m just bewildered by these threads but nevertheless have to keep reading them!!

[Quo Vadis?]

4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

ipee-

I have seen the following threads started:

Will Celebrity really start back in April?

Will Celebrity really start back in May?

Will Celebrity really start back in June?

Will Celebrity really start back in July?

Now your post:

Will Celebrity really start back in August?

😀😀😀😀

Will Celebrity really start back in September?

Will Celebrity really start back in October?

Will Celebrity really start back in November?

Will Celebrity really start back in December?..

 

I'm just getting ready to start the next new thread...

[PTC DAWG]

15 minutes ago, Argo. said:

Will Celebrity really start back in September?

Will Celebrity really start back in October?

Will Celebrity really start back in November?

Will Celebrity really start back in December?..

 

I'm just getting ready to start the next new thread...

Gotta love positive people 

 

 

[phoenix_dream]

5 hours ago, rimmit said:

I love cruising, but for those that think it is unfairly being singled out, Other industries have not been found to infect 100s of people at a time.  The only thing comparable is a prison, aircraft carrier or nursing home.  Dorms missed the boat as when this hit all college students were basically on spring break and never went back to the dorms.  Most college students are likely asymptomatic or thought it was a mild disease at best.  Churches And night clubs have also been found to start mini outbreaks as have small indoor gatherings like parties.  This is likely due to the close approximation of people singing, dancing, and aerosolizing the virus.  

 

Airlines and outdoor theme parks, and land resorts have not been found thus far to infect 100s in the time people have visited them.   This really seems to strike at population dense areas (places with mass transit like NYC) and densely populated areas that are indoors.  Airline flights have yet to be found as a major source of infection.  The airlines seeded the globe.  They allowed the virus to travel and expand its reaches, but 30 people are not getting infected on a long haul flight.  People rarely talk on an airplane, and that seems to be a strong modality for spreading the virus.  Contact tracing has just not found flights to be a hotbed for spreading infection.  I am betting the bars in the airport are ten times more likely to spread the infection than sitting on an airplane.

 

 

I disagree with you to some extent.  I do, in fact, think cruise ships are being unfairly singled out primarily because their issues became so visible so quickly, and because the cruise lines were at the time very ill-prepared to deal with them.  That is what really caused all the press.  I think part of the issue with some of the examples you've stated is that for many of these places people visit for a very short time so if they get sick 5 days later it is impossible to tell where they really got sick.  Was it the airport, was it the airplane ride, was it the taxi ride, was it the hotel, was it the amusement park, was it the restaurant.  They just don't know.   You mention contact tracing.  There is not nearly enough of this being done to really count on that at all.  There certainly wasn't enough of that being done when airlines, theme parks, and land resorts were still running full steam.  

 

I'm also not arguing that cruise ships are likely one of the more illness prone environments to be in, at least as they operated before.  But I maintain the belief that the amount of illness that was generated from other venues, in particular airlines, is likely much, much higher than will ever be known.  But for cruises, people are onboard for usually 7 days or more so it becomes more obvious where the virus spread from - contract tracing by default.  And it is for that reason that I think cruise lines are taking an unfair hit media wise.

[rimmit]

17 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I disagree with you to some extent.  I do, in fact, think cruise ships are being unfairly singled out primarily because their issues became so visible so quickly, and because the cruise lines were at the time very ill-prepared to deal with them.  That is what really caused all the press.  I think part of the issue with some of the examples you've stated is that for many of these places people visit for a very short time so if they get sick 5 days later it is impossible to tell where they really got sick.  Was it the airport, was it the airplane ride, was it the taxi ride, was it the hotel, was it the amusement park, was it the restaurant.  They just don't know.   You mention contact tracing.  There is not nearly enough of this being done to really count on that at all.  There certainly wasn't enough of that being done when airlines, theme parks, and land resorts were still running full steam.  

 

I'm also not arguing that cruise ships are likely one of the more illness prone environments to be in, at least as they operated before.  But I maintain the belief that the amount of illness that was generated from other venues, in particular airlines, is likely much, much higher than will ever be known.  But for cruises, people are onboard for usually 7 days or more so it becomes more obvious where the virus spread from - contract tracing by default.  And it is for that reason that I think cruise lines are taking an unfair hit media wise.

Back in February they were still doing contact tracing and they are still definitely doing it in countries where this isn’t full blown to where it makes it impossible.

 

There were numerous instances where people were reported positive on a flight at the beginning of this and the airlines contacted those people to inform them that they were exposed but again, there aren’t massive numbers turning positive from airplane flights.  
 

There was a land resort at the beginning of all this in the Canary Islands that got quarantined because of a positive case in which people got tested. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/25/world/europe/spain-coronavirus-hotel-canary.amp.html

 

I never saw much follow up to this as when I was following it no one was testing positive.  People were even breaking the quarantine and going out and about and still weren’t spreading it.  A cruise ship is such a condensed space.  It is the exact OPPOSITE of social distancing.  You go on cruise ships to talk to and meet new people.  People dont go to theme parks to meet new people.  They go to ride the rides and spend time with their family.  The social aspect of cruising really spreads the disease at a rapid rate.

 

Being so confined in a cruise ship is exactly why they are so dangerous.  Common sense and recent research (not sure who commissioned that study) tells you that if you are in a confined space with people who are positive for 7 days you are going to contract the virus more easily.  
 

There just isn’t data right now to support that outdoor concerts, theme parks and even land resorts are major players in the transmission of Covid.  Are they players, absolutely, but nothing on the level of a cruise ship, nursing home or prison.

 

While you state you never know where people who got infected that got off an airplane for the infection the same goes for cruise ships.  When they get off, did they get it on a taxi, restaurant etc.  But when they all have a common thread like the Ruby Princess it becomes pretty obvious.  There just isn’t any data, even at the beginning of this when it was a big deal for a country to get just 1 case that people were becoming infected en masse on flights.

 

South Korea is doing a killer job contact tracing and they aren’t finding flights to major players in transmission.  Night clubs and churches  whole other story.

Edited May 21, 2020 by rimmit

[Pushka]

Australia has completely smashed the curve and apparently we are aiming for elimination. Yet several states have border controls in place and will do so for the foreseeable future. While our tourism market is being crippled, that won't be a reason to reopen the country. Eventually we can travel within Australia but the thought of cruise ships is months away from being on the Agenda. Even when we allow international tourists to enter that does not mean cruise ships will recommence. 
 

Ruby Princess continues to stick here and every day there seems to be some kind of reference as to the carnage that created here. 

Edited May 21, 2020 by Pushka

[Quo Vadis?]

4 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Gotta love positive people 

 

 

I was being positive.. in that post..

I really believe there will not be a non-restrictive cruise till 2021.. and even that may prove to be optimistic.

[kk99]

The  CNBC interview with Mr. Fain today. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/21/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-royal-caribbean-ceo-richard-fain.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

 

 

[Oville]

8 hours ago, Langley Cruisers said:

I want to be optimistic, but I just can't be at this point. Our provincial health officer predicts a second wave in fall, and it could be devastating. I expect there will be second waves of this virus all over North America. I would not feel comfortable cruising this year at all. The reason they are going month to month is to collect final payments and then cancel the cruises, hoping customers will take FCC instead of refunds.

And also get new deposits.

[leck57]

The Australian Border Force has just announced a ban on cruise ships until 17 September, so nothing down here for a while. Considering Australia and NZ have the virus controlled better than most, if that is a guide, I wouldn't be confident of cruising anytime soon.

[Mr. Click]

If European cruises were to start in August how would most Americans get there?  Most US airlines are not flying to Europe now.  We are still booked for Oct 3 out of Rome to Venice but American canceled our flights long ago and gave us a refund in under 2 weeks.  I am thankful that our deposit is only $50 because ther is no way I am making final Payment on this one.

[JennAngel9]

A few people alluded to it above, but even if *cruising* is happening in August  in varying parts of the world, I seriously doubt that those places are going to be eager to take Americans (or anybody who has recently traveled through major American, Brazilian, etc. airports) without making them quarantine on arrival.  We were only barely trending in a downward case count direction when we suddenly decided to start opening up much of the country.  If we have 100,000+ active cases around our country for the foreseeable future, we could be banned from sailings (much they way cruise lines originally tried to ban cruisers from China, N. Italy, etc.).

[upwarduk]

7 hours ago, kk99 said:

The  CNBC interview with Mr. Fain today. https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/21/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-royal-caribbean-ceo-richard-fain.html?__source=sharebar|facebook&par=sharebar

 

 

At the beginning of the interview Richard Fain says:

’We’re not sure when we are coming back.’

Enough said.

[yorky]

9 hours ago, Pushka said:

Australia has completely smashed the curve and apparently we are aiming for elimination. Yet several states have border controls in place and will do so for the foreseeable future. While our tourism market is being crippled, that won't be a reason to reopen the country. Eventually we can travel within Australia but the thought of cruise ships is months away from being on the Agenda. Even when we allow international tourists to enter that does not mean cruise ships will recommence. 
 

Ruby Princess continues to stick here and every day there seems to be some kind of reference as to the carnage that created here. 

Just got an email from Emirates stating they are to commence flying from yesterday between the UK and Australia. I had thought it was going to be July at the earliest.

[verizon]

19 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Actually they don't. Even though some may spend a day or two prior to or after a cruise, many do not. Cruise tourist income is largely a few Euros spent on trinkets, maybe a lunch. The cruise lines take a big bite out of excursion revenue. Contrast that with land tourists that may stay a week or more in hotels, eating 2 or more meals a day in local restaurants. Often in places often untouched by cruise pax like Tuscana or Umbria. We've been to Europe almost 50 times and the money we've spent cruise dollars in the local economy vs. land spending is probably by a factor of 10. 

And believe me, in this environment local economies and their residents are not thirsting for cruise money. 

Cruise ship bring in thousands of passengers that needs accommodations and food before and after the cruise.

Cruise lines industries can lift off the businesses of Airlines Hotels and Restaurants is consider one of the engine to boost the economy.

[Boatharbour]

1 hour ago, yorky said:

Just got an email from Emirates stating they are to commence flying from yesterday between the UK and Australia. I had thought it was going to be July at the earliest.

Emirates may be flying here, but unless you’re a permanent resident or citizen, you won’t be allowed to enter the country. Even if you are eligible, you’ll spend 14 nights in quarantine in designated quarantine hotels. 
 

Australians are still banned from leaving the country ( except under the most exceptional circumstances). 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Boatharbour

[yorky]

8 minutes ago, Boatharbour said:

Emirates may be flying here, but unless you’re a permanent resident or citizen, you won’t be allowed to enter the country. Even if you are eligible, you’ll spend 14 nights in quarantine in designated quarantine hotels. 

I know, just found it strange they had moved flying dates forward, I see it’s to nine countries.

[Boatharbour]

3 minutes ago, yorky said:

I know, just found it strange they had moved flying dates forward, I see it’s to nine countries.

Me too. I guess it provides options for people who need to return to their own countries, have compassionate reasons and are prepared to go through the quarantine period. 

[hcat]

There was a TV blurb that indicated folks are now flying into New York City  airports  from many places with varied measures to screen for illness,  some had temps taken, some told to isolate for 2 weeks but no one really checks up on that.would love to hear more info.

 

The gist of what I am piecing together  for departing flights is that Airlines  seem to be implementing screning to a limited extent, not serving meals and supposedly  spacing out seating  It seems TSA  will install plexiglass & will have pax scan their own paperwork .  

 

Not sure how folks will get to ships for cruising..Maybe they will market short cruises  to locals who can easily access ports, ( X seems to offer quite a few in the fall months)..  All a big question mark?

[Cruise a holic]

The real question is if the cruise ships start back in August, would you sail?  My answer is no.

[Pushka]

4 hours ago, yorky said:

Just got an email from Emirates stating they are to commence flying from yesterday between the UK and Australia. I had thought it was going to be July at the earliest.

Likely that's just repatriation flights as currently the bio security orders were extended last week for 3 months from June 17th. 

[TeeRick]

Just to answer the OP question - I do not expect that the vast majority of cruise ships will start cruising in August.  Perhaps a few short trial cruises at most if there are any open ports.  And if there is available crew.  RCCL has not ruled out China. Perhaps an At Sea only cruise might work- just to test things out with all the new regulations. 

 

To put things in my perspective, the different parts of the world and US are in widely different stages of Stay Home Lockdown.  In my state of PA it started early March.  My county is still in the Red stage (highly restricted).  We thought we would be easing up a bit now almost 3 months later.  Not happening.  So could I even cruise in August if I can't even see a future date where I can even leave my home??  I just hope to be able to get a haircut by August.  A cruise? For-getta-bout-it!

Edited May 22, 2020 by TeeRick

[madmacs]

The UK government is today announcing details of their quarantine programme for entry into the UK. It will apparently start on June 1st and anyone entering the UK by plane, ship or I presume Eurostar (unless from Ireland) will have to self isolate in an approved dwelling or government agreed hotel for 14 days. This will be subject to review every three weeks. Whilst this is operating I can't see anyone flying in for cruises from Southampton and Brits like me would have to be in quarantine at home for 14 days. As we are having lockdown restrictions slowly reduced I, for one, would not want to go back into isolation for 14 days after my cruise. Not sure if folks flying straight out to the USA etc would have to quarantine for another 14 days. Whilst this is happening in the UK I think you can forget about cruises from Southampton or any other UK port.

[yorky]

1 hour ago, madmacs said:

The UK government is today announcing details of their quarantine programme for entry into the UK. It will apparently start on June 1st and anyone entering the UK by plane, ship or I presume Eurostar (unless from Ireland) will have to self isolate in an approved dwelling or government agreed hotel for 14 days. This will be subject to review every three weeks. Whilst this is operating I can't see anyone flying in for cruises from Southampton and Brits like me would have to be in quarantine at home for 14 days. As we are having lockdown restrictions slowly reduced I, for one, would not want to go back into isolation for 14 days after my cruise. Not sure if folks flying straight out to the USA etc would have to quarantine for another 14 days. Whilst this is happening in the UK I think you can forget about cruises from Southampton or any other UK port.

Absolutely, the “every three weeks” is the key here, another temporary measure, however one that’s come in far too late, should have happened weeks ago. Just a case of how long it’s in place, may be just the three weeks or I would suggest six weeks at most. Ryanair are already stating it’s ridiculous and unenforceable which I think has a ring of truth. Personally I think the UK government is not far behind the US in making a mess of the whole thing.   

Edited May 22, 2020 by yorky

[ighten]

To be fair I cant see the UK system lasting the first 3 weeks - If its like any other rule we have come up with (usually after the stable door was already so wide open you wont be able to find it to shut it) then most of the population seems to think it means after a few days you can just ignore it.

 

If Im agreeing with something coming from ryanair you know things have just become silly.. I see more U turns on the way