When will cruising restart

[NMTraveller]

I was just wondering when everyone's best guess is as to when they think that cruising might restart.

 

[mom says]

Ask me again in 4 months

[Germancruiser]

Considering that Germany starts tomorrow- even though it is a very very " small " start- it is a start- I first wanted to opt for the first quarter- but the numbers in the USA are rising by the day- so I rather thing in second quarter.

 

I booked on a cruise out of Hamburg- and back into Hamburg- one technical stopp in Oslo- no one is allowed to go on land, though! The first of those  "Blue Journeys" as they call them starts tomorrow- mine will start on monday. Can´t wait!

[markeb]

I voted second quarter, but I'm not really optimistic for that. I think third quarter is more realistic, in all honesty, and it could go beyond that. In which case I really think cruising will change dramatically for 3-5 years... That's a hunch, but it would be somewhat consistent with tourism in NYC post 9/11. There were great hotel rates from 2004 to 2007, mostly for those of us on the East Coast who could travel up easily. Then NYC really started to really recover.

 

Edited to add: We moved to the East Coast in 2003 and made our first visit to NYC in 2004, hence the dates don't start in 2001 or 2002; I don't have a personal frame of reference for that time period.

Edited July 23, 2020 by markeb

[BigAl94]

I listened to a virologist being interviewed on BBC radio this week, his opinion was that even with a successful vaccine we would have to live with the effects of this virus for probably the next 5 years as it would be impossible to vaccinate the entire population. Doesn't augur well.

[K.T.B.]

If a viable vaccine is out by the end of the year, and by all reports it's looking more and more likely, then 1st quarter of next year.  Most likely March.

[TeeRick]

NMT- Can you clarify what you mean? Or just a general betting question?  Is it all cruise lines resuming operations to everywhere?  Or does re-start mean on a ship on a cruise without ports or just to a private island?   Different answers entirely to your poll question.   I think a lot of this is highly dependent on individual regions of the world, countries and ports re-opening.  And airline or border travel restrictions being lifted.  And this perhaps assumes that there is no re-emergence of the virus this fall and winter.    

[Roger88]

In my humble opinion cruising will start somewhere before christmas or maybe first quarter of 2021. I dont see a reason for it to start right now. I suppose there should be some time to be passed before they could safely organize those trips. I doubt there will be any changes in schedules before Autumn anyway 

[Roger88]

19 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

If a viable vaccine is out by the end of the year, and by all reports it's looking more and more likely, then 1st quarter of next year.  Most likely March.

Russia is reporting that they ahve found a vaccine. I wonder how long it will take for it to be certified and shipped all over the world. I mean, I havent heard the US working on a vaccine and if you compare these two systems of healthcare, I doubt that Russians came up with something really that practical. I would rather wait a little bit more for say Japan or Germany to come up with a vaccine 

[Life Buoy]

?

[TeeRick]

???

[dani negreanu]

I voted for the 3rd quarter 😢.

 

Just moved a cruise from May 27th, 2021 to September 18th, 2021 -- since I don't want to make the final payment in February --too early in my opinion.

[NMTraveller]

54 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

NMT- Can you clarify what you mean? Or just a general betting question?  Is it all cruise lines resuming operations to everywhere?  Or does re-start mean on a ship on a cruise without ports or just to a private island?   Different answers entirely to your poll question.   I think a lot of this is highly dependent on individual regions of the world, countries and ports re-opening.  And airline or border travel restrictions being lifted.  And this perhaps assumes that there is no re-emergence of the virus this fall and winter.    

I had intended for it to be a general betting question.  I would not think about the details too much...  I do get your point though.  The first cruises coming out may be somewhat limited...  

 

I was thinking about booking a cruise at the end of May 2021.  However it looks like a wait and see approach before booking may be a better approach.  The uncertainty in the answers gave me my answer.

 

I do have a European river cruise mid August 2021.  I sure hope that one goes off.  It is a smaller ship so I am hoping for the best.

 

Some of the Wall Street bettors are putting their money on 2nd quarter of 2021.  Of course that is after they previously adjusted their estimates further out.

 

 

Edited July 23, 2020 by NMTraveller

[Husky61]

No one on this board knows, all responses are a guess.

[George C]

We booked a cruise for April 2021 last week so I am hoping before that but who knows.

[ExArkie]

16 minutes ago, Husky61 said:

No one on this board knows, all responses are a guess.

I think this might be true of a lot of discussions on Cruise Critic.

[excitedofharpenden]

13 hours ago, Germancruiser said:

Considering that Germany starts tomorrow- even though it is a very very " small " start- it is a start- I first wanted to opt for the first quarter- but the numbers in the USA are rising by the day- so I rather thing in second quarter.

 

I booked on a cruise out of Hamburg- and back into Hamburg- one technical stopp in Oslo- no one is allowed to go on land, though! The first of those  "Blue Journeys" as they call them starts tomorrow- mine will start on monday. Can´t wait!

Much as I love to cruise this does not entice me at all. Even if I spoke German it sounds like hell on Earth for me. 

 

Phil 

[grandgeezer]

I’m guessing the first quarter, but if it doesn’t start in the second quarter they are done permanently. The financial hole will just too big to get themselves out of. Just my opinion. 

[K.T.B.]

13 minutes ago, ExArkie said:

I think this might be true of a lot of discussions on Cruise Critic.

You're just guessing.

[Crazy planning mom]

13 hours ago, Germancruiser said:

Considering that Germany starts tomorrow- even though it is a very very " small " start- it is a start- I first wanted to opt for the first quarter- but the numbers in the USA are rising by the day- so I rather thing in second quarter.

 

I booked on a cruise out of Hamburg- and back into Hamburg- one technical stopp in Oslo- no one is allowed to go on land, though! The first of those  "Blue Journeys" as they call them starts tomorrow- mine will start on monday. Can´t wait!

Have fun and come back and report your experience to us.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Crazy planning mom

[Miaminice]

50 minutes ago, excitedofharpenden said:

Much as I love to cruise this does not entice me at all. Even if I spoke German it sounds like hell on Earth for me. 

 

Phil 

 

While not being to keen on doing the cruise myself - even as a German native speaker - I have to say that it´s not different to a few sea days. Many people love them. In addition to that, the ships are nice and TUI Cruises (Germany, not the old British TUI) is known for high quality. It is a joint venture with Royal and comparable to Celebrity...

So for those who love sea days and don´t mind being on a "monocultural" cruise, it can be a good remedy for cruise withdrawal.

Edited July 23, 2020 by Miaminice

[ECCruise]

Find it pretty telling that users on a site devoted to cruise aficionados that over 70% expect cruising not to resume until the 2nd quarter of 2021 or beyond (including myself).

And once it does resume, it is going to take many weeks of "smooth sailing" (and likely a proven vaccine) before we will be willing to reenter the closed environment of a cruise ship. 

[Jeremiah1212]

A long time I'm afraid. Well into 2021 at the earliest. Especially in the US, as evidenced by the sheer number of people traveling to tourist hotspots because their good time and need for a vacation is all that matters. We're a long way from any significant improvement. 

[Miaminice]

10 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Find it pretty telling that users on a site devoted to cruise aficionados that over 70% expect cruising not to resume until the 2nd quarter of 2021 or beyond (including myself).

And once it does resume, it is going to take many weeks of "smooth sailing" (and likely a proven vaccine) before we will be willing to reenter the closed environment of a cruise ship. 

 

However, it´s also telling that many don´t look outside the box and exclude cruises happening outside the US or cruises they cant sail on.

I think it´s realistic to say that the large US cruise lines won´t wait for the go of the CDC once they can offer cruises outside the jurisdiction of the CDC. Carnivals German line AIDA will sail within the next days, Royal Caribbean´s joint venture TUI starts tomorrow...

Edited July 23, 2020 by Miaminice

[ECCruise]

5 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

 

However, it´s also telling that many don´t look outside the box and exclude cruises happening outside the US or cruises they cant sail on.

I think it´s realistic to say that the large US cruise lines won´t wait for the go of the CDC once they can offer cruises outside the jurisdiction of the CDC. Carnivals German line AIDA will sail within the next days, Royal Caribbean´s joint venture TUI starts tomorrow...

I didn't exclude the sailings outside the US (although what I have seen would offer zero interest to me).

I simply responded to the question, which is 

When will cruising restart from the US

Foreign cruising isn't even part of the equation.