Reality Of Today

[LouChamp]

I am a cruise addict and respect everyone’s opinion.  I just can’t see giving these cruise lines my money until the situation clarifies

itself.  They are cash poor and essentially using a legal ponzi system to stay afloat literally speaking.   I have seen the world and have been blessed to do so with my family because of cruises but right now i don’t see a clear path to cruising until sometime in the

way distant future.  Maybe i’m young enough (59) lol to wait but they keep playing with our minds and canceling and postponing.

It is a mental torture game. So i wish all my fellow cruisers smooth sailing but for now i need to just wait and see. Good health and

all the best. 

[twangster]

Many of us have reached this conclusion. 

 

Many feel differently and are eager to sail under pandemic protocols.  

 

To each their own.

[TheMastodon]

8 minutes ago, LouChamp said:

I am a cruise addict and respect everyone’s opinion.  I just can’t see giving these cruise lines my money until the situation clarifies

itself.  They are cash poor and essentially using a legal ponzi system to stay afloat literally speaking.   I have seen the world and have been blessed to do so with my family because of cruises but right now i don’t see a clear path to cruising until sometime in the

way distant future.  Maybe i’m young enough (59) lol to wait but they keep playing with our minds and canceling and postponing.

It is a mental torture game. So i wish all my fellow cruisers smooth sailing but for now i need to just wait and see. Good health and

all the best. 

 

The situation is they aren't cruising until it's realistic to do so.  Yes, you are right there isn't a clear path in the near future.   And we will move on

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

Yes, you are right there isn't a clear path in the near future.   

I think the clear path is my biggest concern. I sold a big chunk of cruise stock at open this morning at a large loss ...the lack of transparency bothered me a lot. I'd like the cruiselines to share a time line. This cancelling a month or this time 2 months at a time, is like slow torture. 

 

Dont care so much for my cruises as for the stock ... I dont see it going much higher as it is further and further diluted by debt and selling more stock. Luckily I can use the tax loss, so I got out. 

 

... though I admit I'd sure like to know about my April cruise. I still want to go, but the lack of hearing about mock cruises, inspections, filings...I didnt feel positive on cruise stocks getting me back to even. It's the lack of a clear path that bothered me too. Cdc said end of oct ok these are the terms ..rcl has had time to communicate some path or what's next and when by now..I'd guess they dont know. 

[ryano]

They have my money already and there is nothing I can do about it but wait it out.  I had an Alaskan cruise booked last August using a FCC from a cancellation from Hurricane Dorian.  The Alaskan cruise was of course cancelled and I lift and shifted to next September.  Im not expecting that one to happen either unfortunately.  Even if we are cruising by then, no way will Canada open its borders to Americans IMO.  

Edited December 7, 2020 by ryano

[mac_tlc]

I guess I fall somewhere in between the two opinion expressed. We have had 6 cruises cancelled. Took cash refund for two, FCCs for four. We had four additional cruises booked pre-COVID, so it was easy to allocate the FCCs and at prices we were comfortable with and were not affected by recent price run ups. 
 

But, in the past month, I have booked two cruises for summer 2022, one on an itinerary that is “bucket list” and one for a stateroom that is “bucket list”. More deposits, sure, but I am not risking money that I can’t afford to lose. Certainly don’t want to lose it, but it won’t affect our lifestyle. I am about the same age as the OP, but this past year has shown me not to wait too long and assume everything will be just fine in the future. 
 

As far as pandemic protocols, the most troublesome one is having to use ship excursions. I won’t book an itinerary where that would be an issue. So, probably not looking for anything else in 2021, and in fact concerned with our August Allure and certainly the Harmony Fall TA. But, 2022?? If it ain’t back to an acceptable experience by then, we have much bigger issues. 
 

mac_tlc

[Milwaukee Eight]

What would happen if Royal said all cruises cancelled until November 1st?  Do they have enough cash or credit to keep on?  I suspect they will continue to suck money out of people who continue to book. I have 4 cruises booked but I knew it was a risk but the deals were just too good to pass up. L&S was my friend. Four cruises in 6 months is enough for us. 

[firefly333]

9 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

What would happen if Royal said all cruises cancelled until November 1st?  Do they have enough cash or credit to keep on?  I suspect they will continue to suck money out of people who continue to book. I have 4 cruises booked but I knew it was a risk but the deals were just too good to pass up. L&S was my friend. Four cruises in 6 months is enough for us. 

I've got 5 lifted and shifted within 4 months. I just cant jam in one more if my april gets cancelled.

 

I was iffy on the last lift and shift, my b2b feb 2021. .. that's a lot of cruises in a short time, though right now I feel like there cant be too many .. but 6 would push even me. ..though april 2021 is my best balcony deal. ...so i wait. See what rcl says end of January before current lift and shift expires. 

 

I do think rcl is in the best position. If they cancelled until nov, imo they would just issue more stock.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/07/3-reasons-cruise-line-stocks-arent-hitting-all-tim/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

 

[lenquixote66]

1 hour ago, LouChamp said:

I am a cruise addict and respect everyone’s opinion.  I just can’t see giving these cruise lines my money until the situation clarifies

itself.  They are cash poor and essentially using a legal ponzi system to stay afloat literally speaking.   I have seen the world and have been blessed to do so with my family because of cruises but right now i don’t see a clear path to cruising until sometime in the

way distant future.  Maybe i’m young enough (59) lol to wait but they keep playing with our minds and canceling and postponing.

It is a mental torture game. So i wish all my fellow cruisers smooth sailing but for now i need to just wait and see. Good health and

all the best. 

Just out of curiosity were you originally in NYC ?A friend of mine who resides in Maui moved there from Brooklyn about 40 years ago.

[vistapat]

We have an August Alaska booked, simply because at our ages we can't plan to wait a year or two or five.  We'll take the cruise if we've been vaccinated and are healthy.  But if it's canceled, that's it for us.  We've had a wonderful time cruising, but as my husband says, "We've run out of runway."

 

Pat

[LouChamp]

yes originally from manhattan watched them build the world trade center.

actually lived across the street from it from 1987 until 2001.  divide my time now although have been in ny caring for my mom. will go to oahu as soon as i can though.  used to think florida would be good for retirement but decided to think outside the box lol.  all the best

[twangster]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

think the clear path is my biggest concern. I sold a big chunk of cruise stock at open this morning at a large loss ...the lack of transparency bothered me a lot. I'd like the cruiselines to share a time line. This cancelling a month or this time 2 months at a time, is like slow torture. 

 

The counter argument is that they don't have a timeline.  

 

If you owned a land restaurant and it was closed by the government what do you do?  Close it and lay off staff using a distant date in 2022 to reopen just so you have certainty or do you keep hoping that the government might let you open if not this month, maybe next month or the month after that?

 

Do you tell all your customers "don't bother checking in from time to time, we're closed for the next 8 months period".  What happens in 3 months if you get the government gives the go ahead to re-open?

 

It's easy to look in the rear view mirror now and know they should have closed through February 2021 back in March.  Who knew?

 

It's torture for us without a doubt.  Could you imagine what it's like to have to make billion dollar decisions that could sink the company?  

 

Royal has always been optimistic when faced with unexpected events like a hurricane.  They always wait to cancel hoping for the best outcome.  

 

I'm okay going a few months at a time, I just think they should cancel cruises before final payment, or move final payment due date to 15 or 30 days.  

[notmyrealnameoremail]

2 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

What would happen if Royal said all cruises cancelled until November 1st?  Do they have enough cash or credit to keep on?  I suspect they will continue to suck money out of people who continue to book. I have 4 cruises booked but I knew it was a risk but the deals were just too good to pass up. L&S was my friend. Four cruises in 6 months is enough for us. 

 

This is my opinion. Of course that would hurt, hurt a lot actually, but look at the numbers. 

 

These are the facts that form the basis of my opinion. They had over $3B on cash and cash equivalents at the end of September and just raised another $1B from the stock sale.  They are burning around a quarter Billion a month.  That gives them over a year without doing anything else to save money or raise money.

 

The rest is my unsupported opinion. I suspect the reason that are not aggressive about cancelling cruises is because they don't want to cancel one that could have sailed or been altered to sail.  It is likely a balancing act. 

Edited December 7, 2020 by notmyrealnameoremail
clarity

[firefly333]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

..I'd guess they dont know. 

 

4 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

The counter argument is that they don't have a timeline.  

 

I'm not sure that's a counter argument ... sounds like we agree. 

 

Still it's hard to wait and wait and wait some more without knowing any more than we knew when cdc issued its 40 page protocols.

[twangster]

Just now, firefly333 said:

 

I'm not sure that's a counter argument ... sounds like we agree. 

 

Still it's hard to wait and wait and wait some more without knowing any more than we knew when cdc issued its 40 page protocols.

 

I'm thinking the CDC was instructed "Do not extend the NSO" so they came up with the CSO to accomplish the same thing.  

 

In some ways it would have been better if the CDC had its way and extended the NSO to the end of February like they wanted to.  Then we would know.  

[HicksRA]

Royal is already sitting on over $8k of my money and as time goes by I’m getting more and more skeptical as to how much benefit I’ll get out of it. I’m certainly not going to tie up another dime until I see some progress. 
Their last move of cancelling one of my L&S’s under the guise of a repositioning with nothing but a refund when they only changed one port has left a sour taste in my mouth. I think it was just an exercise to dump a bunch of money losing lift & shifts to sell for more $$$.  
But I do understand their motives of taking things a couple of months at a time. They’re definitely walking a tightrope right now. 
 

[Jimbo]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I think the clear path is my biggest concern. I sold a big chunk of cruise stock at open this morning at a large loss ...the lack of transparency bothered me a lot. I'd like the cruiselines to share a time line. This cancelling a month or this time 2 months at a time, is like slow torture. 

 

Dont care so much for my cruises as for the stock ... I dont see it going much higher as it is further and further diluted by debt and selling more stock. Luckily I can use the tax loss, so I got out. 

 

... though I admit I'd sure like to know about my April cruise. I still want to go, but the lack of hearing about mock cruises, inspections, filings...I didnt feel positive on cruise stocks getting me back to even. It's the lack of a clear path that bothered me too. Cdc said end of oct ok these are the terms ..rcl has had time to communicate some path or what's next and when by now..I'd guess they dont know. 

Not sure when you would have bought to get such  a lost lost or what cruise stock you bought?,  We bought a 100 shares of of NCLH back in August and we are $1000 up. I guess you are thinking I should sell now. What do other's think about NCLH ? Time to get out or hold a bit longer.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Jimbo

[HaveWeMetYet]

This week will be an interesting one watching covid case counts. If all the concern about traveling the week of Thanksgiving is true then case counts should shoot up above 200k per day for the next several weeks. We have been at about 200k for the last couple of weeks. If they start to fall then I think we have reached the peak of covid. Cases are falling in Europe pretty quickly and there ramp up started a little before the US.

The reality of today is you can't run cruises with the type of numbers going on. However, if they start to drop off fairly quickly over the next few weeks then a March startup could be in the cards. I still don't plan on getting on a cruise ship until all the mask wearing (like it has done any good preventing covid), social distancing, testing crap is over with. Also, I need to see schedules stabilize. There are still a lot of cruises late in 2021 and 2022 either being cancelled or changed.

[radarcruiser]

51 minutes ago, twangster said:

 

I'm thinking the CDC was instructed "Do not extend the NSO" so they came up with the CSO to accomplish the same thing.  

 

In some ways it would have been better if the CDC had its way and extended the NSO to the end of February like they wanted to.  Then we would know.  

 You are correct, the CDC was never going to allow cruise lines to start up in 2020.  The CSO was window dressing to appease the WH.  It’s all moot since we are cancelled til March anyway.  I expect more rolling cancels after the holidays ( but never more than 90 days ahead - which coincides with final payment)

[firefly333]

53 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

Not sure when you would have bought to get such  a lost lost or what cruise stock you bought?,  We bought a 100 shares of of NCLH back in August and we are $1000 up. I guess you are thinking I should sell now. What do other's think about NCLH ? Time to get out or hold a bit longer.

I bought ccl actually, ...before princess got stuck in japan I think it was, hal across Panama and all the talk princess couldn't survive as a brand, rode it down to $7 and by last friday my instincts said take the loss, can buy back next year. The loss certainly could have been a lot worse. 

 

Lol after the bottom dropped out I told my cousin who doesnt cruise and he picked up rcl and ncll at the bottom ... my timing was bad. I bought for the dividend, which no longer exists. 

 

But that's another thread, not this one. I bought before the bottom dropped out of it. And had a lot of shares.... life will go on. I have a bigger gain to offset the loss ... but yes I think the signs are ccl which is what I had a lot of was time to get out this tax year. .before earnings dec 18.

 

Should have followed my cousin and jumped on rcl at the bottom. Of course I own some rcl too, lol. We need some positive cruise news or time to bail, so I bailed, at least for now. 

 

The news tonight that pfeizer and moderna declined to meet tomorrow at the White House...and now pfeizer said the White House declined buying more doses of their vaccine, and pfeizer now has orders taking it to next June possibly before another order can be shipped also not positive for cruises imo. I've been asking on the vaccine thread why we are getting 40m doses and so is the UK now been answered. Hopefully plenty from moderna. I used to trade stocks, it's my passion along with cruising  the ocean etc, 

 

 

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, Jimbo said:

Not sure when you would have bought to get such  a lost lost or what cruise stock you bought?,  We bought a 100 shares of of NCLH back in August and we are $1000 up. I guess you are thinking I should sell now. What do other's think about NCLH ? Time to get out or hold a bit longer.

I think royal is in the strongest position from things I've read. Borrowed less and issued less stock, taken together and future sales they are not giving huge amounts of cash into the future as a inducement to book. I feel fine long term with my rcl stock. All rcl gave was some fcc, with enough strings to make it hard to use and some extra loyalty pts. Imo they will be the strongest coming out of this from what I've seen. Just my two cents.

[Iamcruzin]

10 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I think royal is in the strongest position from things I've read. Borrowed less and issued less stock, taken together and future sales they are not giving huge amounts of cash into the future as a inducement to book. I feel fine long term with my rcl stock. All rcl gave was some fcc, with enough strings to make it hard to use and some extra loyalty pts. Imo they will be the strongest coming out of this from what I've seen. Just my two cents.

I think you have a valid point because over on the Princess board I read that Carnival Corporation  announced Jan Swartz has been named group president of Holland America Group, responsible for Princess Cruises, Holland America Line, Seabourn and P&O Australia, as well as Holland America Princess Alaska Tours and inter-group operation.  This seems like step one of consolidating cruise lines and eliminating positions similar to the way the department stores merged and Macy's took over all of them at the end with the exception of the luxury Department stores. 

5

 

[Eddie Wilson]

5 hours ago, LouChamp said:

I am a cruise addict and respect everyone’s opinion.  I just can’t see giving these cruise lines my money until the situation clarifies

itself.  They are cash poor and essentially using a legal ponzi system to stay afloat literally speaking.   I have seen the world and have been blessed to do so with my family because of cruises but right now i don’t see a clear path to cruising until sometime in the

way distant future.  Maybe i’m young enough (59) lol to wait but they keep playing with our minds and canceling and postponing.

It is a mental torture game. So i wish all my fellow cruisers smooth sailing but for now i need to just wait and see. Good health and

all the best. 

 

As a cruise addict, I assume you keep your eyes and ears on the industry, because when the industry is back you will want to have a cruise on the books.  Here in Cincinnati, between About March 30 and April 10 is “THE DAY”, being the day spring suddenly turns up the contrast and tint to BRIGHT.  The grass is suddenly deep green, the sky brighter, the effects of winters black and white world being tossed away.

 

The cruising world will also have THE DAY.....just not sure when.  When  that day arrives, it may be nice to have one booked and not have to wait a year or so.  Demand may be pent up, or at least act that way due to fewer travelers at first.  

 

Eddie

[bonsai3s]

6 hours ago, LouChamp said:

I am a cruise addict and respect everyone’s opinion.  I just can’t see giving these cruise lines my money until the situation clarifies

itself.  They are cash poor and essentially using a legal ponzi system to stay afloat literally speaking.   I have seen the world and have been blessed to do so with my family because of cruises but right now i don’t see a clear path to cruising until sometime in the

way distant future.  Maybe i’m young enough (59) lol to wait but they keep playing with our minds and canceling and postponing.

It is a mental torture game. So i wish all my fellow cruisers smooth sailing but for now i need to just wait and see. Good health and

all the best. 

 

Aloha...we have reached that point as well.  Mahalo...stay safe and good health to you.

 

Side Note: With cruising suspended, we decided to book a week to Hawaii (Waikiki).  We did everything we were told to do...spoke to the State of Hawaii, opened an account, scheduled our Covid test (required 72 hours BEFORE your flight).  We even spoke to United Airlines and were told we can board the flight to Honolulu even if our covid test result are not in BEFORE the flight...just as long as we get it when we arrive Honolulu.  All good.

 

Then the bad news, the State of Hawaii decided to change their policy, and as of two weeks ago: Anyone flying to Hawaii must have the results of their covid test BEFORE their flight.  This made our trip more difficult because not many "trusted testing sites approved by Hawaii" can guarantee test results within the 72 hours requirement.  We were then told that rapid testing is available at SFO...for a whopping price of $261 per test/per person....sigh.  Ultimately, we cancelled our trip.

[Merion_Mom]

People are counting on a vaccine to be able to return to cruising.

 

Bad news, people.

 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/07/world/covid-19-coronavirus?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR1a7-rwFDP0733Gc7nZ1kIbveD9VfqpFPZU0j8tE5ANO7-f7jv5iMIV7ss#trump-covid-vaccine-pfizer