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CDC denies cruise sector's request to lift US sailing restrictions


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1 hour ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

This seems logical to me. CDC has still not approved sailings from U.S. ports, including test sailings.

So, here's the scoop. Royal and Celebrity are cruising the Caribbean from June through August. Nice seven night itineraries I might add and open to all travelers. These cruises will be considered the test cruises for R & X. At the same time, there will be no Europe, Alaska or Asia cruising through October 2021. Between gathering data from the Caribbean cruises and planning future cruising across the RCG fleet from that data, November would be the logical earliest date that global sailing would resume. Other than the June through August Caribbean cruises, I would disregard any other offerings from R & X. So many variables to factor, including of course worldwide ports-of-call and their readiness for cruise ships.    

If the Caribbean cruises are the ones that originate in the Caribbean, they are probably meaningless to the CDC. I’m sure the requirements wouldn’t be as stringent as the CDC which would render them irrelevant. Start over, using the new requirements.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

 

Say that with a straight face after what they tried to do to American Cruise Lines – stopping a cruise that doesn't even come under their jurisdiction (because US line, US ports and under the size limit).  They are anti-cruise.  At some point you will have to admit it.

I believe in that case they were reviewing that American Cruise Line was in fact going to operate their cruise with reduced passenger load and crew.  Confirming that they had a permit from the coast guard to do so. That the checking was because the ships normal capacity and permit would have been within the restricted range for the CDC's rule.

 

Once they had confirmed that, then American Cruise Line was approved to operate.

Edited by nocl
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So is Canada in cahoots with the CDC?  Canada has banned large ships through early 2022.  

 

Since the US and Canada get relatively little benefit from cruise lines, they are taking a stricter approach.  Most of the areas that are reopening to cruising are much more dependent on the money generated by tourism, and appear willing to take a chance on allowing cruises sooner.

 

Hopefully those cruises will go smoothly, which could lead to the US and Canada allowing large ships sooner.

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10 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

So is Canada in cahoots with the CDC?  Canada has banned large ships through early 2022.  

 

Since the US and Canada get relatively little benefit from cruise lines, they are taking a stricter approach.  Most of the areas that are reopening to cruising are much more dependent on the money generated by tourism, and appear willing to take a chance on allowing cruises sooner.

 

Hopefully those cruises will go smoothly, which could lead to the US and Canada allowing large ships sooner.

Except that since these cruises are outside of both Canadian and US jurisdiction, there will not be any reporting of information to either country.  Without that, unless they have a major problem, the CDC will not have any data from these cruises to impact their decision.

 

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2 minutes ago, nocl said:

Except that since these cruises are outside of both Canadian and US jurisdiction, there will not be any reporting of information to either country.  Without that, unless they have a major problem, the CDC will not have any data from these cruises to impact their decision.

 

 

To the extent there are little or no COVID issues, I assume the cruise lines will provide that information to the CDC.  Whether the CDC will use that information as a factor in its decision making, I do not have a clue.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

 

To the extent there are little or no COVID issues, I assume the cruise lines will provide that information to the CDC.  Whether the CDC will use that information as a factor in its decision making, I do not have a clue.

For it to be of value to the CDC it would have to be pretty much in line with what they included in the framework as far as data tracking and monitoring. Also the cruise lines would have to send a complete set not cherry pick certain cruises. With the cruise lines history of avoiding CDC tracking as much as possible I doubt they will do so, but I could be surprised.

 

One other comment I expect that they would also need to coordinate in advance to supply the data if they want the CDC to consider it, not just offer if the cruises all go well.

Edited by nocl
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7 hours ago, cruiserchuck said:

 

To the extent there are little or no COVID issues, I assume the cruise lines will provide that information to the CDC.  Whether the CDC will use that information as a factor in its decision making, I do not have a clue.

If the non US cruises  are successful, Covid -wise ( hoping so),  that would perhaps motivate the  CDC  to re evaluate some of its cruise ship requirements..just like it has adjusted  school social distancing recs and those for  domestic  air travel.

 

Off topic,  but I am curious if CDC has input into the US border rules? Northern border seems closed but Southern border not...lots of Covid coming through..

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2 minutes ago, hcat said:

If the non US cruises  are successful, Covid -wise ( hoping so),  that would perhaps motivate the  CDC  to re evaluate some of its cruise ship requirements..just like it has adjusted  school social distancing recs and those for  domestic  air travel.

 

Off topic,  but I am curious if CDC has input into the US border rules? Northern border seems closed but Southern border not...lots of Covid coming through..

Sad but true

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This is just the latest example that the CDC does not want to allow vaccinated people to resume their normal lives.  The CDC refuses to admit that a ship full of vaccinated people will not turn into another Diamond Princess.  Even if someone on-board contracts the virus, it will be contained to a handful of people and it will not result in serious cases of COVID.  Remember the vaccines are 100% effective in preventing serious Covid and death.  I'm afraid the CDC is painting themselves into a corner, they want to wait until vaccinations reach herd immunity and new cases go down.  It's the younger part of the population that us accounting for much of the current increase in new cases and those are the people least interested in getting vaccinated.  The result is that vaccinated people that do not pose a significant risk to themselves or others will continue to be held hostage and cannot resume their normal lives.

 

So sad.

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11 hours ago, PTC DAWG said:

Meanwhile, in my area, cases are down to basically nil.

 

 

Same here in San Antonio, 2 weeks after our state ended the mask mandate and opened all businesses 100%. We also  have extensive vaccinations numbers  among our citizens over 50. Yesterday our reported daily positive Covid cases was less than 100 while it was over 2000 daily before wide spread vaccinations began in mid January. The Debbie Downers are losing their shutdown arguments in my state.

COVID Updates: New COVID cases remain low two weeks after end of mask mandate (mysanantonio.com)

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17 hours ago, cruiserchuck said:

I am not disappointed that they are looking out for public health instead of worrying about the financial condition of cruise lines or people's cruise vacation plans.

I couldn't agree more!!!

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1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

This is just the latest example that the CDC does not want to allow vaccinated people to resume their normal lives.  The CDC refuses to admit that a ship full of vaccinated people will not turn into another Diamond Princess.  Even if someone on-board contracts the virus, it will be contained to a handful of people and it will not result in serious cases of COVID.  Remember the vaccines are 100% effective in preventing serious Covid and death.  I'm afraid the CDC is painting themselves into a corner, they want to wait until vaccinations reach herd immunity and new cases go down.  It's the younger part of the population that us accounting for much of the current increase in new cases and those are the people least interested in getting vaccinated.  The result is that vaccinated people that do not pose a significant risk to themselves or others will continue to be held hostage and cannot resume their normal lives.

 

So sad.

 

Definitely agree that the agency in charge of disease control and prevention wants to see cases go down and vaccines go up before there is any movement. That's their job. Around 14% of Americans are fully vaccinated. That isn't many. It's increasing at a solid pace which is great but that is a low number. You are right that the CDC will never be the 'winner'. Too little action makes them inept people responsible for sickness and unnecessary deaths. If their actions work, they are overbearing and overreaching and have no regard for the economy or people's livelihood. 

 

No one know what goals the CDC has set before decisions are made nor to what extent discussion has taken place with the CLIA. Those goals are likely a sliding target and we know how well people handle change. They can't. News and speculation impacts cruise lines financially. Just like the ignorant article that spread like wildfire yesterday. There is a need to remain tight lipped since anything perceived as negative or a miss drives stock prices down. 

 

I posted the April extension of the NSO yesterday. Read the responses to the cruise lines communication. They were clueless and absolutely did themselves no favors. I think that set the tone with the CDC early on.

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11 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

 

Say that with a straight face after what they tried to do to American Cruise Lines – stopping a cruise that doesn't even come under their jurisdiction (because US line, US ports and under the size limit).  They are anti-cruise.  At some point you will have to admit it.

You might want to double-check the facts about American Cruise Lines.

 

And I have no difficulty whatsoever saying with a straight face that any post claiming that a federal government agency has attempted to decimate a multi-billion dollar contributor to the US economy is absolute nonsense.

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3 hours ago, hcat said:

If the non US cruises  are successful, Covid -wise ( hoping so),  that would perhaps motivate the  CDC  to re evaluate some of its cruise ship requirements..just like it has adjusted  school social distancing recs and those for  domestic  air travel.

 

Off topic,  but I am curious if CDC has input into the US border rules? Northern border seems closed but Southern border not...lots of Covid coming through..

Yes true enough.  But what if the exact opposite happens?  COVID cases on board with ships returning early?  Won't that hurt cruising overall?

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18 hours ago, txart said:

I have come to expect this from the CDC. I have no trust in their decisions or recommendations. They appear to be just another bureaucratic agency with a political agenda and a bias against the cruise industry. If they were operating from a scientific point of view the airlines, amusement parks, big box stores, etc would be held to the same standard.

 

Amusement parks and big box stores are outside the CDC mandate. If you are truly interested in why your opinion is so misformed, there is an awful lot of research data available on the web.

 

12 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

Not if the 'Can Decimate* Cruising' agency can stop it!

 

* and yes, I know that 100% is far greater than the 10% the Romans meant by this, but I've given up on this one...

 

Name calling? Is this really a useful contribution to the discussion?

 

11 hours ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

 

Say that with a straight face after what they tried to do to American Cruise Lines – stopping a cruise that doesn't even come under their jurisdiction (because US line, US ports and under the size limit).  They are anti-cruise.  At some point you will have to admit it.

 

A bias mischaracterization of the situation. The CDC did not prevent the ACL cruise.

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3 hours ago, hcat said:

 

 

Off topic,  but I am curious if CDC has input into the US border rules? Northern border seems closed but Southern border not...lots of Covid coming through..

I think the current administration might be considered "lost at sea" on this one. 

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This is sad news.  I live in Florida and the tons of people here partying without masks is more of an issue than cruising with vaccinated people.  I just don't understand why this is happening.  

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, lovrccl said:

This is sad news.  I live in Florida and the tons of people here partying without masks is more of an issue than cruising with vaccinated people.  I just don't understand why this is happening.  

Why it's happening? They are young and on Spring Break and don't realize that they can get Covid and pass it on to people at school or home. IMHO ,people young or old not wearing masks or practicing social distancing pose a threat to not only cruising, but the economy. 

I've been totally vaccinated and still wear a mask and practice social distancing and I will until the health professional tell me not to. 

Edited by Orator
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20 hours ago, TeaBag said:

So much for sailing to Alaska out of Seattle.

 

Sad reality ... and to think people complained about Canada speaking so far out with their restrictions of ships in Canadian waters.  At least (I think) what Canada presented best ripped the band aid off to manage expectations leaving no room for false hope like the CDC seems to have encouraged.

 

I wasn't going to cruise anytime soon but I miss it so much.  😞 

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30 minutes ago, Orator said:

Why it's happening? They are young and on Spring Break and don't realize that they can get Covid and pass it on to people at school or home. IMHO ,people young or old not wearing masks or practicing social distancing pose a threat to not only cruising, but the economy. 

I've been totally vaccinated and still wear a mask and practice social distancing and I will until the health professional tell me not to. 

I agree, I should have said I don't understand why the CDC is being so stubborn about cruising.  

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Just now, lovrccl said:

I agree, I should have said I don't understand why the CDC is being so stubborn about cruising.  

 

Have your children ever asked about a parental stubborn denial of something desired? What was the answer?

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3 hours ago, paulh84 said:

I posted the April extension of the NSO yesterday. Read the responses to the cruise lines communication. They were clueless and absolutely did themselves no favors. I think that set the tone with the CDC early on.

 

Everyone also seems to conveniently forget that cruise lines (including Celebrity) were sending ships out to sea hours before ports were to be closed last March, knowing that the shutdown orders were imminent.  We sat on this board and watched it in real time.  Pretty obvious that the powers that be running these companies cannot be trusted to do the right thing, especially since there has been very little evidence to date that they're making any effort to comply with the CDC order rather than relying on a pressure campaign to influence their place in line.

 

The impatience from some on this board is a little perplexing, too.  Its been about a month since most states opened up vaccinations to those under 65 with medical conditions.  We're not even in the phase yet where anyone who wants one can get one.  The 24/7 news cycle has really skewed some people's expectations about what is possible and how long it takes to make it happen and even whether it should be happening given the evolving nature of the situation.  As an example, if Europe is seeing a spike in cases, do we really want to relax international travel restrictions right now?  If not, then when?  I'm not even saying "yes" or "no" in answer to that, but it's the type of thing that has to be considered before you even get to cruising.  There are a host of domestic industries that are trying to come back online, too, so it's a balancing act.

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

You might want to double-check the facts about American Cruise Lines.

 

And I have no difficulty whatsoever saying with a straight face that any post claiming that a federal government agency has attempted to decimate a multi-billion dollar contributor to the US economy is absolute nonsense.

The funny thing is he is the one that posted the link to the article that indicated that the hold was due to the CDC checking that the cruise would be at reduced capacity and that they had a valid permit from the coast guard to do so with reduced crew and passenger load.

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14 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

 

Everyone also seems to conveniently forget that cruise lines (including Celebrity) were sending ships out to sea hours before ports were to be closed last March, knowing that the shutdown orders were imminent.  We sat on this board and watched it in real time.  Pretty obvious that the powers that be running these companies cannot be trusted to do the right thing, especially since there has been very little evidence to date that they're making any effort to comply with the CDC order rather than relying on a pressure campaign to influence their place in line.

 

The impatience from some on this board is a little perplexing, too.  Its been about a month since most states opened up vaccinations to those under 65 with medical conditions.  We're not even in the phase yet where anyone who wants one can get one.  The 24/7 news cycle has really skewed some people's expectations about what is possible and how long it takes to make it happen and even whether it should be happening given the evolving nature of the situation.  As an example, if Europe is seeing a spike in cases, do we really want to relax international travel restrictions right now?  If not, then when?  I'm not even saying "yes" or "no" in answer to that, but it's the type of thing that has to be considered before you even get to cruising.  There are a host of domestic industries that are trying to come back online, too, so it's a balancing act.

This is how I look at the current risk level .  The US has a population of 331 million.  We current have a national new case count of 58000 per day (CDC and others have indicated that the reported cases may under report actual cases by up to 5 times).  That would would mean a boundary condition max of 291345 new cases on that day.  Since a case may last as long as 14 days using the one day amount that means that as many as 4 million could be infected on any given day or about 1.23% of the population.  If the illness was evenly spread (which is is not) one would have the chance of encountering an infected person out of every 81 they come into contact with.

 

At the min boundary using just the reported cases and the 14 day infected period you would get

.25% of the population.  Meaning that one would encounter an infected person 1 out of every 400 contacts.  I would expect reality to be somewhere between those two numbers.  It changes if one is only contacting vaccinated individuals, but it is a range for the entire US population

 

Yes, I know it is a simple model that does not take into account the percentage that should be quarantining, the actual distribution in different areas, etc.

 

The point I am making is that the CDC has far more sophisticated models that will take into account the case levels, the rate of change, variant distribution, etc.  They will use those to calculate a risk value, including future expectations.  We do not know what risk level they are looking for.  But one be pretty certain they have one.

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