Latest CDC Update - No Simulation Voyages

[kiwimum]

2 minutes ago, TNTLAMB said:

I wonder how this will effect children (specifically 2 we recently adopted and want to take on a Dec cruise) who can't be vaccinated?

 

That’s the interesting question.  We are sailing with our 4 grand children under 14 in July, December and February and will not be eligible for vaccination.   

[beg3yrs]

1 hour ago, TNTLAMB said:

I wonder how this will effect children (specifically 2 we recently adopted and want to take on a Dec cruise) who can't be vaccinated?

 

Children may fall into the 5% of passengers who do not have to be vaccinated. Book them early!

[azbirdmom]

1 hour ago, kiwimum said:

That’s the interesting question.  We are sailing with our 4 grand children under 14 in July, December and February and will not be eligible for vaccination.   

 

Maybe that was why the vaccinated figure was 95%?  A cruise line could require all adults to be vaccinated which would leave room for children.  On Princess I think the only time that more than 5% of the passengers were children was over Christmas.

[Tak8]

Good news indeed.   I'm more hopeful for cruising to resume this year.

[Earthworm Jim]

5 hours ago, Denmal said:

Remember Cruise lines are NOT registered in the USA - Florida cannot mandate what they do ... so I think the lines can say all passengers and crew must be vaccinated.

 

 

I think Florida would counter-argue that they don't care where the cruise lines are registered, they are doing business in Florida so they need to follow Florida's rule (Which is apparently on the verge of becoming a Florida law, making it harder to undo than an executive order is)

 

I know nothing of the subject personally, but from reports I've read some experts seem to think the vaccine passport ban for cruises would lose in court because, as I understand it, the ports are officially under federal jurisdiction. Unfortunately though even a favorable court ruling would likely take significant time and perhaps delay the resumption of cruises.

[CI66774]

22 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

I think Florida would counter-argue that they don't care where the cruise lines are registered, they are doing business in Florida so they need to follow Florida's rule (Which is apparently on the verge of becoming a Florida law, making it harder to undo than an executive order is)

 

I know nothing of the subject personally, but from reports I've read some experts seem to think the vaccine passport ban for cruises would lose in court because, as I understand it, the ports are officially under federal jurisdiction. Unfortunately though even a favorable court ruling would likely take significant time and perhaps delay the resumption of cruises.

Court cases apply federal law but cruises are actually both fed and state jurisdiction.

[CI66774]

6 hours ago, Denmal said:

Remember Cruise lines are NOT registered in the USA - Florida cannot mandate what they do ... so I think the lines can say all passengers and crew must be vaccinated.   If FL wants the travel $$ cruises brings , they will probably change their mind on vaxs

 

Registration has nothing to do with whether Florida has some type of jurisdiction over this issue.

[Ken the cruiser]

I have a question concerning the pending Florida no vaccine passport law being considered. If one or more ports scheduled to be visited on a particular cruise only allowed vaccinated passengers to disembark while in port, would the applicable cruise line then be allowed to verify all passengers had a COVID vaccine, much like when cruise ships go to ports along the Amazon River where Brazil requires all passengers have received a yellow fever vaccine?

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[Ombud]

6 hours ago, mnocket said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the US you don't need to be a resident/citizen in order to get vaccinated. Given that many areas or the US are reaching the point where vaccine availability is exceeding demand, it should be relatively easy for crew to get vaccinated at US ports.

In San Mateo County (California) There were 4000 available doses today and only 500 showed up.  That's 1 day. We have enough to share

 

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ombud

[cscurlock]

1 hour ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

I think Florida would counter-argue that they don't care where the cruise lines are registered, they are doing business in Florida so they need to follow Florida's rule (Which is apparently on the verge of becoming a Florida law, making it harder to undo than an executive order is)

 

I know nothing of the subject personally, but from reports I've read some experts seem to think the vaccine passport ban for cruises would lose in court because, as I understand it, the ports are officially under federal jurisdiction. Unfortunately though even a favorable court ruling would likely take significant time and perhaps delay the resumption of cruises.

This is exactly what will happen and it will take a lot of time.  During that time cruises will sail out of other states that are more open to the CDC rules.  The legislature and governor has been particularly crazy lately so I see this going to full mile.   It will be interesting to see what happens when businesses and port employees start calling the legislature and tell them to remove or make an exception to the law that was passed so they can start work and make money again and get told no.

[kiwimum]

6 hours ago, mnocket said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in the US you don't need to be a resident/citizen in order to get vaccinated. Given that many areas or the US are reaching the point where vaccine availability is exceeding demand, it should be relatively easy for crew to get vaccinated at US ports.

Correct, San Diego is vaccinating regardless of immigration/citizen status, no questions asked.  Homeless are being vaccinated in a pop up facility in Balboa Park by Homeless outreach with J&J.   I do not know if they are vaccinating the young women at the convention center seeking asylum.   

Edited April 30, 2021 by kiwimum

[caribill]

14 hours ago, franktown said:

As I see it the biggest obstacle will be getting the crew vaccinated.  Don't have any idea how they are going to handle the large # of staff from India.

 

Here is what RCL says:

On the cruise situation in particularly as it relates to India. Yes, I mean this is an unfortunate what's occurring in India over the past week or so. There has been multiple travel restrictions placed on the Indians with traveling through to various countries and what have you so we did temporarily suspend our crewing activities in India as we understand how this will work out. The beauty, of course of our recruiting model is that almost from the very beginning we recruit from literally over 100 countries around the world up.

Some countries like India have significant volume of employees who come from India, but we have large populations to come from many other countries around the world. ...We have the ability to crew and change of recruiting based upon all the circumstances. So discouraging what's occurring in India, but our model is very robust.

[NSWP]

4 hours ago, Ombud said:

In San Mateo County (California) There were 4000 available doses today and only 500 showed up.  That's 1 day. We have enough to share

 

 

Like in my area of Australia, 150 miles south of Sydney, many oldies knocking the Astra Zeneca back. Anyway had my first shot. 3 months to the second.

 

Cruising  is not  looking positive here for 2021. Governments, state and federal very nervous.

Edited April 30, 2021 by NSWP

[ready2cruzagain]

Maybe someone can explain to me what I am missing here because I am not getting it:

 

Per report from a Miami Herald reporter the CDC sent a letter to the cruise lines stating they will not require them to conduct a simulated voyage if the certify that 98% of the crew & 95% of the passengers have been verified by the cruise ship operator to fully vaccinated.

 

Why 98% & 95%?  Why not 100%??? To me if there is 7% not vaccinated you have a chance of 7% people getting Covid on the cruise. That just makes no sense to me.  Why not just make it 100%? Surely I am missing something.

[PrincessLuver]

9 hours ago, cscurlock said:

This is exactly what will happen and it will take a lot of time.  During that time cruises will sail out of other states that are more open to the CDC rules.  The legislature and governor has been particularly crazy lately so I see this going to full mile.   It will be interesting to see what happens when businesses and port employees start calling the legislature and tell them to remove or make an exception to the law that was passed so they can start work and make money again and get told no.

 

If anyone can board cruise ships in Florida with no proof of Covid vaccine then I think the cruise industry will be right back where it was over a year ago with many people refusing to sail because of loose Covid protocols and protections for the passengers and they can end up with ships full of Covid sick non- vaccinated passengers......that will be great PR for the industry and Florida.......

Edited April 30, 2021 by PrincessLuver

[Ombud]

3 hours ago, ready2cruzagain said:

Why 98% & 95%?  Why not 100%??? To me if there is 7% not vaccinated you have a chance of 7% people getting Covid on the cruise. That just makes no sense to me.  Why not just make it 100%? Surely I am missing something.

The 1st thing you're missing is that it isn't 7% unvaccinated.  It's somewhere between 2%-5%. Assuming crew - passenger ratio is 1 to 1 then 3.5% are unvaccinated which for passengers is probably small children (underc16). Next everyone goes ashore in a bubble to minimize contact with potentially unvaccinated people. The next things are:

1. Test voyages not need. However if lines elect to do that then the response time is 5 days not 60

2. Embarkation: everyone takes rapid antigen COVID-19 test before embarkation 

3. Disembarkation: those who were exposed to or contracted COVID-19 may to drive home if port is close to their home OR may quarantine in a hotel if flying home

 

[ontheweb]

2 hours ago, Ombud said:

The 1st thing you're missing is that it isn't 7% unvaccinated.  It's somewhere between 2%-5%. Assuming crew - passenger ratio is 1 to 1 then 3.5% are unvaccinated which for passengers is probably small children (underc16). Next everyone goes ashore in a bubble to minimize contact with potentially unvaccinated people. The next things are:

1. Test voyages not need. However if lines elect to do that then the response time is 5 days not 60

2. Embarkation: everyone takes rapid antigen COVID-19 test before embarkation 

3. Disembarkation: those who were exposed to or contracted COVID-19 may to drive home if port is close to their home OR may quarantine in a hotel if flying home

 

The amount of math illiteracy in this country is amazingly high.😒

 

Thanks for your explanation.😉 If say the ratio of passengers to crew were 2 to1, the percentage unvaccinated even if those maximums were reached would be about 4%.

[TNTLAMB]

Keep in mind regarding state/federal rules ONE of the reasons Beyond too much fog most cruises were discontinued out of Houston was the liquor laws preventing sale of much of the ships stock of liguor on embarkation day Not to mention should you have brought any liquor on your cruise you paid tax to the State of Texas......

[caribill]

6 hours ago, ready2cruzagain said:

Maybe someone can explain to me what I am missing here because I am not getting it:

 

Per report from a Miami Herald reporter the CDC sent a letter to the cruise lines stating they will not require them to conduct a simulated voyage if the certify that 98% of the crew & 95% of the passengers have been verified by the cruise ship operator to fully vaccinated.

 

Why 98% & 95%?  Why not 100%??? To me if there is 7% not vaccinated you have a chance of 7% people getting Covid on the cruise. That just makes no sense to me.  Why not just make it 100%? Surely I am missing something.

 

Crew: There are medical reasons that some people cannot receive a vaccine.

 

Passengers: So far children under the age of 16 cannot have the vaccine. Also, some adults cannot receive a vaccine for medical reasons.

 

I assume the difference between the 95% for crew and the 95% for passengers is the children factor.

[caribill]

26 minutes ago, TNTLAMB said:

Keep in mind regarding state/federal rules ONE of the reasons Beyond too much fog most cruises were discontinued out of Houston was the liquor laws preventing sale of much of the ships stock of liguor on embarkation day Not to mention should you have brought any liquor on your cruise you paid tax to the State of Texas......

 

The liquor laws also apply to cruising out of Galveston which has not prevented that port from being the 4th busiest home cruise port in North America.

 

But a big reason for Princess (and NCL) leaving Houston is that every cruise from Houston and Galveston for 7 days or less went to the same limited number of ports accessible in that time frame. Too much competition for too few itineraries led to very low pricing and thus very low profit potential.

 

In addition, both Princess and NCL had to be "bribed" to come to Houston to utilize the "if it is built it, they will come" cruise terminal that nobody came to. Besides cash payments to come to Houston, fees were waved and the cruise companies shared in parking lot revenue. When the contracts to come to Houston expired, the two cruise companies left.

 

[Ombud]

17 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Crew: There are medical reasons that some people cannot receive a vaccine.

 

Passengers: So far children under the age of 16 cannot have the vaccine. Also, some adults cannot receive a vaccine for medical reasons.

 

I assume the difference between the 95% for crew and the 95% [98%] for passengers is the children factor.

Agreed. 2% maximum unvaccinated pax capacity of 3080 (Ruby Princess 4/11/22) is only 62 kids under 16. Seems reasonable 

 

Adding: is this a way to limit kids onboard???? I can see a policy of everyone over 16 must be fully vaccinated as an easy way to enforce this rule (rather than picking and choosing which adults get to go to a wholistic 'doctor' who will sell a letter)

 

 

 

Edited April 30, 2021 by Ombud

[beg3yrs]

6 hours ago, ready2cruzagain said:

....

 

Why 98% & 95%?  Why not 100%??? ....

While walking the dog yesterday morning I was pondering the reasoning behind 95% and 98%.

In the field of statistics, a 95% sample confidence level is generally accepted as being the foundation to make a definitive statement about whatever you're measuring. It's generally 2.6 sigma (standard deviation) above the mean.

IIRC (it's been a few years), the 98% number may arise from someone requiring a 3 sigma level of confidence, maybe because the crew lives in much tighter quarters than passengers.

As far as not requiring 100% I believe it could be the CDC's analysis doesn't support it scientifically and with pending lawsuits, they're making sure they have the science to back up their requirements.

[Earthworm Jim]

On 4/29/2021 at 10:00 AM, stevenr597 said:

The CDC said that cruises "might resume" by "Mid-July."

 

Why not by July?

Answer is quite simple.

The President said that by July 4th, we will be permitted to have small gatherings.

A cruise sailing is not a "small gathering"

The CDC does not want to go on record of disagreeing with the President.

Good example of "Following the Politics."

 

I don't think the "politics" claim has merit here. When the president said July 4th, he also said small outdoor gathering by then and we're already doing them now. They didn't wait until July 4th. Under promise and over deliver is a political positive, not a negative. It would look good for him to have larger gatherings be allowed on July 4th, not bad.

 

When he under promised by saying "100M vaccinations in 100 days" did the federal government drag their feet to make sure it didn't happen before then? No, of course not, because doing it sooner makes them look better. The same would be true if they can allow large gatherings sooner than promised.

[Ombud]

Whatever the reason I am more confident that I will cruise in 2021. Maybe (probably) not Queensland in December but a California Coastal out of my home city (SF) will do just fine!! I've got FCC & Gift Cards set aside 🚢

[LACruiser88]

19 minutes ago, Ombud said:

Whatever the reason I am more confident that I will cruise in 2021. Maybe (probably) not Queensland in December but a California Coastal out of my home city (SF) will do just fine!! I've got FCC & Gift Cards set aside 🚢

Same here, booked for November Hawaii cruise and December Mexico cruise.  Both out of San Pedro.  Can't Wait!!!