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90% effective vaccine EVEN without booster shot...

boscobeans

By boscobeans,
in Royal Caribbean International

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bouhunter

bouhunter

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

There have been over 11 million infected. CDC says the actual number is 10 to 11 times the number that have been tested and come back positive. Others say even higher because very little testing was done until about May. We will be above 50 percent shortly at the rate new cases are being reported. Should shoot above 200k per day average next week and peak out in early December. Herd immunity is about 60-65 percent. Regardless, you will run out of new people to infect soon enough. i don't support herd immunity as a way to handle it but it is what most countries are effectively doing.

Yes the people disagreeing with you forget about the likely 10's of millions in the US who have had it and not been tested.  The positive tests recorded are NOT the only ones who've had covid.   Every day for the past 9 months there have been people who had little to no symptoms and never got a test.

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nomad098

nomad098

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Posted

I think a lot of people are reading the headline and not the full story. 

 

Although the headline is very hopeful the full story is not as encouraging.

 

8 out of the 21,500+ vaccinated caught covid this equates to around 40 in 100,000 a number higher than the number the UK government require to assess international travel. 20 in 100,000

 

Early in the trial the vaccine was given to older people and their immune response was not as strong which will bring the 90% down

 

The "Human Factor" this can influence a study dramatically in the early results but should become less pronounced as the study progresses.  

 

The developer of the Pfizer vaccine has stated it will be a least a year before it is known whether vaccinated people will still carry and transmit the disease.

 

The Pfizer vaccine will be the first ever vaccine brought to market on the mRNA platform long term consequences are unknown but the theoretical modelling looks good. 

 

Here is a very long but well thought out article by the normally sensational daily mail in the UK

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8945465/Billionaire-scientist-Pfizer-BioNTechs-Covid-19-vaccine-claims-end-pandemic.html

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crzndeb

crzndeb

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Posted
1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

Yes the people disagreeing with you forget about the likely 10's of millions in the US who have had it and not been tested.  The positive tests recorded are NOT the only ones who've had covid.   Every day for the past 9 months there have been people who had little to no symptoms and never got a test.

True, but a lot of those positives could have been false positives, so I guess we will never really know the true count. Heck, I read the other day, somebody tested, and one nostril tested positive and the other nostril negative. 
 

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firefly333

firefly333

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Posted
5 minutes ago, crzndeb said:

True, but a lot of those positives could have been false positives, so I guess we will never really know the true count. Heck, I read the other day, somebody tested, and one nostril tested positive and the other nostril negative. 
 

It was on the tv news now. After that electric car maker tested 4 times, 2 positive and 2 negative, I guess those with extra money going to all try it and see.

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Ocean Boy

Ocean Boy

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Posted
3 hours ago, ChC said:

 

First, the CDC number is estimates. There is no prove unless they test everybody in a short period of time.

 

Second, virus mutates every few months, When you achieved 70% target for herd immunity, a new strain emerges and wipes out the immunity.

 

Third, we still knows relatively little about this virus. 

Yet you seem to be quite knowing of its mutation characteristics.

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Ocean Boy

Ocean Boy

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Posted
21 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

It was on the tv news now. After that electric car maker tested 4 times, 2 positive and 2 negative, I guess those with extra money going to all try it and see.

Kind of like RCI customer service. If you don't like the answer call back until you get the answer that you want.

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not-enough-cruising

not-enough-cruising

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

I’m with M8 on this one.  It kind of depends on how one interprets events.  Here is one POV from Fortune.  No doubt there are a host of alternative stories.

https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/

If you are a private business and someone guaranteed to cover all your expenses no questions asked, if you can provide a viable candidate; do you pull out all the stops, or do you work in your same uber conservative manner as always and don’t even try techniques that you feel have less potential?

I postulate that the offer of guaranteed covered expenses created many more potential solutions than would have other wise been attempted. 

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d9704011

d9704011

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3 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

If you are a private business and someone guaranteed to cover all your expenses no questions asked, if you can provide a viable candidate; do you pull out all the stops, or do you work in your same uber conservative manner as always and don’t even try techniques that you feel have less potential?

I postulate that the offer of guaranteed covered expenses created many more potential solutions than would have other wise been attempted. 

Sure, I agree.  A better explanation of how you see things as opposed to ‘They would be wrong.’, which pretty much sucks the air out of an exchange of opinions.

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broberts Excellent Advice! Rare

broberts

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, bouhunter said:

Yes the people disagreeing with you forget about the likely 10's of millions in the US who have had it and not been tested.  The positive tests recorded are NOT the only ones who've had covid.   Every day for the past 9 months there have been people who had little to no symptoms and never got a test.

 

True enough. There also are reports of re-infection. This later fact has lead some immunologists to suggest that long term immunity may not be possible. In which case herd immunity may not be possible.

 

But how many have actually had the disease is not a salient point. The fact is that it has killed almost a quarter of a million Americans in less than a year. And this number is expected to continue its upward spiral for months to come. Another salient point is that a good number of these deaths were preventable.

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firefly333

firefly333

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Posted
8 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

True enough. There also are reports of re-infection. This later fact has lead some immunologists to suggest that long term immunity may not be possible. In which case herd immunity may not be possible.

 

But how many have actually had the disease is not a salient point. The fact is that it has killed almost a quarter of a million Americans in less than a year. And this number is expected to continue its upward spiral for months to come. Another salient point is that a good number of these deaths were preventable.

I've read there is actually only one documented case here in the usa of someone reinfected. However, that was some weeks ago. 

 

From google I asked, and see it was put out late oct.

20201115_135847926.jpeg

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Milwaukee Eight

Milwaukee Eight

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, d9704011 said:

I’m with M8 on this one.  It kind of depends on how one interprets events.  Here is one POV from Fortune.  No doubt there are a host of alternative stories.

https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/pfizer-vaccine-funding-warp-speed-germany/

I think you read my post wrong. I say Operation Warp Speed had a lot to do with getting the vaccine in months instead of years. 
 

M8

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d9704011

d9704011

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3 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

I think you read my post wrong. I say Operation Warp Speed had a lot to do with getting the vaccine in months instead of years. 
 

M8

Yes, I believe I did; thought you were addressing development, not distribution.

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ONECRUISER

ONECRUISER

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, broberts said:

 

True enough. There also are reports of re-infection. This later fact has lead some immunologists to suggest that long term immunity may not be possible. In which case herd immunity may not be possible.

 

But how many have actually had the disease is not a salient point. The fact is that it has killed almost a quarter of a million Americans in less than a year. And this number is expected to continue its upward spiral for months to come. Another salient point is that a good number of these deaths were preventable.

As about 40% all US CV Deaths were Nursing care facilities, yes good number preventable

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MommaBear55

MommaBear55

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On 11/15/2020 at 7:54 AM, bouhunter said:

Yes the people disagreeing with you forget about the likely 10's of millions in the US who have had it and not been tested.  The positive tests recorded are NOT the only ones who've had covid.   Every day for the past 9 months there have been people who had little to no symptoms and never got a test.

I agree with you in theory, but your numbers are overly optimistic  The rate of those who have had asymptomatic Covid seems to be about 30-40% of all cases. Since the US has had 11 million cases, asymptomatic cases would be about 7 million (assuming 40%) not tens of millions. To achieve herd immunity, you need about 85% to be immune, or 281,000,000 Americans. The difference between the 85% and your number, which is the herd immunity rate for the flu, is that the Ro number, or the replication number (the number of people one person can infect) is higher for Covid 19. I'm hoping that the vaccine is readily available in 2021 and that it proves safe, so that the majority of people will get it. 

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bobmacliberty "Live from...." Rare

bobmacliberty

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Posted
On 11/16/2020 at 9:14 AM, MommaBear55 said:

I agree with you in theory, but your numbers are overly optimistic  The rate of those who have had asymptomatic Covid seems to be about 30-40% of all cases. Since the US has had 11 million cases, asymptomatic cases would be about 7 million (assuming 40%) not tens of millions. To achieve herd immunity, you need about 85% to be immune, or 281,000,000 Americans. The difference between the 85% and your number, which is the herd immunity rate for the flu, is that the Ro number, or the replication number (the number of people one person can infect) is higher for Covid 19. I'm hoping that the vaccine is readily available in 2021 and that it proves safe, so that the majority of people will get it. 

I think you missed the point.  You are only looking at those who tested positive.  There are some number of people who have had COVID, were asymptomatic, never got tested, and may have some form of immunity now.  The referenced CDC estimate is that there were 10-11 times as many people who were asymptomatic and were never tested.  That's where the tens of millions number comes from.  I'm not a doctor and I don't try to play one under any circumstances.  I'm just clarifying the original point.

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